Friday, June 2, 2017

Heartbreak for Ruth as SNP enjoy double-digit lead in a poll conducted prior to the Tory manifesto meltdown

With all due respect to the Herald, I fail to understand what earth-shattering insights we're supposed to glean six days before a general election from the publication of a poll that was conducted between two and three weeks ago.  Yes, the "new" BMG poll is part of a regular series and the long delay between fieldwork and publication is not untypical, but during the heat of a campaign everything becomes very compressed, and (as we've discovered) it's possible to get significant shifts of opinion over the course of a few days that might otherwise take weeks, months or years.  If it wasn't feasible for BMG to get their numbers out a bit quicker this time, I struggle to see the point of the exercise.  It even looks like almost all of the fieldwork preceded the disastrous Tory manifesto launch, which means the poll practically comes from a different political era.  However, for what it's worth, here is BMG's estimate of what the state of Scottish public opinion was quite a long time ago...

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (BMG, 12th-18th May) :

SNP 43%
Conservatives 30%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%

There's nothing remotely surprising about those figures - they're pretty much bang in line with what other firms were showing during the earlier part of the campaign.  We know with a high level of confidence that there has been a Labour recovery since then, and that the Tories' second place is now under some kind of threat.  But what is much less clear is whether the extra Labour votes have come predominantly from the Tories themselves, from the SNP, or from both parties roughly equally.  Until that question has been answered, it's a bit redundant of the Herald to be using ancient polling data in an attempt to fuel speculation that Angus Robertson is under threat of losing his seat in Moray.  If there has been direct movement from Tory to Labour since the BMG poll was conducted, that threat may have receded somewhat.  The much bigger 18% SNP lead in the more up-to-date Ipsos-Mori poll would tend to support that interpretation, but isn't sufficient as proof.  What we really need are updated figures from a firm that has already polled during the campaign.

20 comments:

  1. A Magnus Graham influence in effect here, James ?

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  2. Polls are misleading as recent history has shown. If the SNP vote turns out the high 40s to low 50s seat return is likely. The conservatives are good at getting their vote out if the SNP vote stays at home then look for a shock. This election is very very unpredictable and has the potential to set Scotland back decades with a strong unionist upsurge.

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  3. Bryan, turnout will be high and the SNP will do extremely well. The unionist upsurge has blown a fuse with the Maybot. Plus having actually seen Ruth Davidson now, people do not like her.

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    1. God i hope you are right but there has been a shift in rural areas to the tories. The thought of them having any influence in my country is alarming.

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  4. Fairly confident the SNP vote is holding up despite the labour increase.

    Labour lost left leaning unionists or old labour voters to the tories based on May's opening salvo...trying to appeal to the working class whilst also strongly opposing a 2nd indyref....all in the midst of corbyn having no traction up here.

    Now Labour voters are seeing the true face of May and they don't like it, as you say James, this is all before the campaign took a nosedive for them.

    Of course, today marks the start of the tory push to paint a corbyn minority gov being in the snp's pocket....less than a week to go and it could be an exact replica of what happened to Miliband.

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  5. Why even publish this poll which has fieldwork so out of date. Are The Herald trying to manipulate the voters by conning them. Tories are probably on 26% now and Labour in the low twenties.

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    1. I would suggest that they are perhaps trying to galvanise the yes vote...given the herald is very close to supporting an indy Scotland...

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    2. What planet are you from chalks? It certainly isn't this one with statements like that....

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    3. Yeah chalks, be realistic. Your comment reads like satire tbh.

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    4. LOL - Galvanising votes can be a two pronged thing.

      The Herald aren't doing it to up the snp vote of course, but what do you think yes voters who might vote for someone else will think when they see that?

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    5. Chalks the Herald has no intention of galvanising the Yes vote. They are drooling servants of The British State at the Herald.

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  6. Chalks- Your are joking. The Herald is a known MSM rag owned by the same 4th estate as the rest of the bog roll. This is in fact an attempt to create the illusion that Ruth is doing swimmingly in Scotland. Labour unionists opt for Tories as they think they have a chance against the SNP.

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  7. A minority govt situation is probably too much to hope for, but who knows.

    A few years of being forced to compromise might do everyone some good, and weed out the more extreme policies on either side to boot.

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  8. Yeah I reckon the crappy Herald is trying its best to boost the Tories. Meanwhile the even crappier Scotsman is using a classic headline conceit by asserting that Angus Robertson is "set to lose" his seat, which always creates an aura of certainty about outcomes - an absurdity given Robertson's likely personal vote and out of date fieldwork for the poll. Just another day at the office for the mainstream Scottish press.

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    1. If he losses his seat then I would look closely at the PV votes.

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  9. I don't know if anyone saw the latest video by John Harris in the Grauniad, but I have a really uneasy feeling about the North East.

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  10. Whatever the concerns about fishing, I find it very hard to believe that a 49.5% share of the vote, a 9,000 majority, could be overturned in Moray. The Lib Dems and Labour had really low votes last time: their hardline faithful, few likely to switch. And the SNP's stance on the EU is long known: are that many SNP voters willing to ditch decades of support for independence and rejection of the Tories? Are that many suddenly so shallow?

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  11. Unless Ruth has already seen the postal votes...ahem.

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  12. Unless Ruth has already seen the postal votes...ahem.

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