Constituency ballot (pensioners only) :
SNP 43%
Conservatives 28%
Labour 19%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Regional list ballot (pensioners only) :
SNP 38%
Conservatives 27%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Greens 5%
UKIP 4%
Analysis to follow if I can be Smithsoned to do it. It's Easter Sunday, guys.
Explanatory note : As a fond tribute to the mainstream media's restrained take on the GERS report, Scot Goes Pop headlines will contain 50% added hysteria for an indefinite period.
That was about 5% added hysteria.
ReplyDeleteThose voters sampled were out of line with how the general population voted in 2015. 39% of the voters questioned said they voted SNP in the General Election and now 43% of the panel are going to vote SNP. Quite satisfactory. I suppose the Sunday Post wanted to question the type of person who actually reads the paper.
Apologies, I'll try again.
Delete'Hubristic Hothersall's hopes for happy Easter are left in ruins as cruel Survation poll predicts pensioner carnage for Labour'
Any better?
Much better. :)
DeleteDone. On your head be it!
Deleterather prefer this one
Delete"Pensioner carnage" makes me think of a truck driving into a nursing home. Might just be me, though.
DeleteInteresting that UKIP only get 4% of the over-60 vote.
ReplyDeleteGives us hope that Holyrood might remain Kipper-free... No complacency though.
Any idea how much a Scottish pensioner who had made full contributions would be paid had the Jokes voted for independence and what the currency would be.
ReplyDeleteI note Nat si MPS are going on trip to Calais to look at the rrefugee camps no doubt not at their own expense.
They should try walking around Glasgow centre and count the beggers. This is SNP legacy. The penny will drop eventually.
It would be good if there could be adult comments on this site rather than the moronic comments left by GWC2.
DeleteEdna are you the enibriated wummin. I try my best on here to edjicate these narrow back plank of wud Nat sis who think the planet is flat and Scots are a special species.
Delete(sounds the incoherent rant Klaxon)
DeleteIt is a pity your Mother did not believe in an abortion.
DeleteWhat a arsehole you are Where is your party then loser? SNP will storm the Scottish election and you saddo and your pathetic wee party will be nowhere. Ha Ha LOSER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DeleteIt's not really possible for any party to 'storm' a Scottish Holyrood election. Even with the SNP's sky high figures, they are effectively capped in the low seventies seat-wise. With 65 required for a majority, that isn't really 'storming' it.
DeleteIt wouldn't be "storming it" if it was FPTP, but low seventies is sure as shit "storming it" using the AMS system......and you know that fine well!
DeleteThey need 65 out of 129 for a majority. They won 69 last time. They might get 70-74 this time. That's not storming it. I don't think 'storming it' has been legitimately and properly defined, to be fair - but I would say 100 out of 129 is storming the election. What you're looking at is a majority where a handful of rebels could sink the government in a vote. So you haven't stormed anything.
DeleteYes, Aldo. This, like everything else that ever happens, is really a victory for Unionists.
DeleteClearly not. But it's not a complete taken out back and given a total bleaching by the heavy boys either. Think about it! Unionists have written this one off. It's gone. Our eye is on 2021. If we finish 10 seats short of a collective pro UK majority then that is easier to overcome than being 20 or 25 seats short.
DeleteAldo
That's the spirit.
DeleteIt is fair enough to say that increasing the SNP numbers from 69 to, say, 74 is not "STORMING". but you seem to forget that this is a form of PR that is supposed to make ANY majority impossible. It shows the level that the pro-Westminster Managed Dependency parties have fdallen that suggesting another SNP Majority is, somehow, no big deal.
DeleteScotland deserves a far better opposition - one whose PRINCIPLE objective is how to benefit Scotland, not how to enable their London HQ to gain power.
SNP legacy? In case you've missed it (havin yer heid up yer erse) Glesca has been a labour cooncil since nineteen canteen. That's a legacy sunshine.
ReplyDeleteObviously it is too thick to realise that explains why it's party will come nowhere.
DeleteSNP legacy? In case you've missed it (havin yer heid up yer erse) Glesca has been a labour cooncil since nineteen canteen. That's a legacy sunshine.
ReplyDeleteEdna Gwc is technically not an adult. He has a mental age of 11.5.
ReplyDeleteI object at 11 and a half I was not so thick nor as malicious as GWC,as a stirrer he/she is too obvious as a unionist he/she has failed,not sure where he/she should be but I know I'm way too old for conversations with him/her.
DeleteI'm sorry. Adult here. Aren't these really good numbers for the SNP?
ReplyDeleteThese are indeed excellent figures for the SNP. That's why our resident 2nd class citizen, GWC, gets wound up.
DeleteThe combination of insults and raving tells us a great deal about the state of mind of some Unionists. They're confused and frightened because the previous rants and insults haven't worked.
DeleteThe Nat si mobsters are on the loose this Easter Sunday and we still are in the Union inspite of your sad efforts.
ReplyDeleteBring on the next referendum Nat si losers.
I assume, by your rather inflammatory and insulting rhetoric, you are on the piss again?
DeleteDo not confuse yout narrow Nat si mind between reality and rhetoric. There was no intention to insult I leave that to the Nat sis.
Delete(sounds the shrieking meaning-free Yoon Klaxon)
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteFYI - this sort of post shows you to be a moron and you Brits stopped posting such tripe about 4 years agowhen it was explained to you that your empire days are over and those days were vile, sordid and caused untold (yet well documented) suffering. BritNats are a bit of a creepy bunch and their method of argument is to attack like monkeys throwing their turds. Pointless you talking to people really.
DeleteNo need for 'BritNats' (aka patriots) to attack. We can just watch as the whole rotten, wobbly edifice comes crashing down over the next few years. Oil is boogered, the SNP govt is getting a bit long in the tooth and the new intake of members demand a referendum rerun by last Thursday.
DeleteIt's all about to turn to sh1t.
Interesting comparing projected turnouts for the EU ref. ICM have got only 47% 10/10 certain to vote in England. Yet in Scotland, the numbers are much higher; Survation just got 73% certain to vote.
ReplyDeleteHow ironic that a referendum made in England is going to potentially deliver a much bigger turnout in Scotland, yet here the campaign is, to quote the BBC, a 'damp squib'.
Anyway, England voting narrowly for Leave on a low turnout while Scotland votes Remain in massive, nay epic proportions, 'settling the matter for a lifetime' (if 55% is 'overwhelming / settled for a generation' then 67% is...) is kinda perfect if you want a new iref sooner rather than later.
Skier, I thought you wanted another referendum in Scotland and would have it if the UK leaves the EU. In that case does it make sense to leave the EU?
Delete(sounds the incoherent Britnat rant Klaxon)
DeleteGlasgow Zombietron alert honk honk!
DeleteFlute
Bowler hat
Marching band
Zombietron shirt
Not much to say about this poll, given it is over 60s only. However, if I remember correctly, when Labour first announced their penny on tax proposal, it emerged the next day that they had completely forgotten that pensioners also pay tax. Scottish Labour perhaps have shot themselves in the foot again, by effectively targetting the very group of voters that had remained most loyal to them. Presumably, like the rebate scheme, it was one of those little details, they didn't take the time to think about.
ReplyDeleteFine alliteration James especially given the difficult letter H. Like many others I would enjoy the site better if you banned GWC, despite the freedom of expression argument. I think he abuses your hospitality and our patience.
ReplyDeleteI second that. The rest of us can't enjoy our freedom of expression or our right to talk quietly amongst ourselves, if you like, when there's so much meaningless noise about. So put the dog out and shut the door on its barking.
DeleteNo second coming for Hothersall.
ReplyDeleteWill it ever occur to Labour that they totally and utterly fucked up, before, during and after the Referendum.
ReplyDeleteJames - enjoying the headlines. Can I suggest a few "Disaster for Doomed Dugdale" themed ones in the coming weeks.
ReplyDeleteOn the troll problem, would it be possible to give one of your trusted lieutenants access to the comments section so they could delete the offensive ones.
I am sure you would have plenty volunteers for this onerous but ultimately very rewarding task!
Why would you want the Dug to be doomed. It was the Labour and Trade Union movement that fought for workers rights not you Nat sis. You are just Yellow Tories that have done a good con job on the masses. You will be exposed eventually.
Delete(sounds the gibbering Britnat troll Klaxon)
Deletebowlerhat, flute, marching band.
DeleteIncoherent Zombie on Buckie alert
Labour are red tories and glasgow working class 2 is a red zombie tory
James, looks like the banning free speech Nazis are coming out of the woodwork.
ReplyDeleteAlways did have my suspicion about some fundamentalist Nat sis.
Sad to see that those Christians have been slaughtered in Lahore. This is what happens when fundamentalism takes root in any society.
You are an absolutely sickening piece of human trash.
DeleteYou are not "sad" to see it, you are delighted to use it in a completely inappropriate context though. It doesn't matter to you that people have died, only that they're deaths can be used to "win" an argument.
You are completely beneath contempt.
We are not quite yet at the stage of yesser martyrdom. When they aren't painting their faces blue and protesting about Tunnocks teacakes they are generally doing normal things. That's because people in this part of the world are reasonable and not whacked out extremist nutjobs.
DeleteLet's keep it that way.
You're certainly in denial about Britain's role in creating religious division in order to divide and rule - same in Ireland. same in India/Pakistan.
DeleteThat comment was meant to be one up under GWC.
DeleteTories on 28% among those aged 60 and above - the very people who lived through Thatcherism, as adults. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteUsing unionist methods of calculation.....non-Tories on 72% among those aged 60 and above - the very people who lived through Thatcherism, as adults. Not really a surprise, then!
DeleteWho would have guessed that the core Tory vote was Mr and Mrs Meldrews?
ReplyDeleteOr David Francis the Yellow Tory former self confessed socialist and class traitor. You must choke oan yer purridge and black puddin. Muppet.
DeleteI DEEUUUNNT BELIEEEEVE IT!!!!!
DeleteAs previously noted on earlier threads GWC is a Staunch Tory who had a Commie Dad.
ReplyDeleteGWC refuses to confirm or otherwise whether Dad would be proud of GWC.
Dusk has passed and the coffin opens, Anon appears. Ready for a laugh.
Delete(sounds the Red Tory blare)
DeleteSounds red zombie tory alert!
DeleteLabour in Scotland are finished as a credible party. In the past they delivered a lot for Scotland, not that stupid crack-pot stuff at Hollyrood, and it is sad to see the once mighty Labour party now splattered and confined to a few run down council areas in some of our most deprived areas. Junkies, neds, defecating up the close youths,Labour's new grassroots.
ReplyDeleteI'm quite proud the Tory vote is so low in its target demographic. 7/10 against in your 'forlorn hope' section; that's you fecked when it comes to PR.
ReplyDeleteOut of interest, was fieldwork before the Tories went after the disabled? Depending on timing, we may well need to wait for that to factor in.
Must admit it's funny to see Osborne get sat ratings UK-wide that look like the poll was conducted in Scotland.
I think 28% is a pretty decent score among the elderly, who lived through the 'evil' Thatcher while working and raising a family. When I was growing up I heard nothing but a chorus of "tory b*stards / tory f*ckers / tory scum" etc from the adults I encountered. That 1/3 of that demographic now plan to vote either tory or ukip (tory mini me but more right wing), is actually pretty staggering - and a sign of definite improvement in tory fortunes in Scotland. Still a long way to go though. Next step - unseating Labour as main opposition.
DeleteSome of them are property owners and landlords. And the Yellow Tories get large donations from the private bus owners. At least Aldo you are an honest Tory unlike the Scot Nat sis.
DeleteThe SNP want to leave the Scottish public sector 15 billion per annum short of its funding requirement. They are left in rhetoric, extreme right wing libertarian in deed. Moderate tories like me just want public money spent wisely and lazy barstools put to work. I have no desire to lay waste to EVERYTHING.
DeleteThe Nat sis want independence at any cost whether it causes poverty or not. They are fanatics and hate the English.
DeleteYes, I would agree. I could never understand the mindset of the perpetual victim in life who - when given the chance to be an equal stakeholder in something truly great - declines the offer and instead clings to the grudges of centuries past. Great Britain is an island - and anyone with a right to be p*ssed off at the English is now a calcium deposit in a churchyard. Let it go.
DeleteThey will not let it go they have hate and for no reason. However the English working classes will say cheerio, goodbye we were good together but put up your border posts and we English will carry on regardless. But no more blame Jocks do your own thing.
DeleteFirst time I've seen a mutual admiration society for idiots.
DeleteAdolf had perceived idiots sent to the holiday camps, Nat si.
Delete(sounds the Nazi-obsessive troll Klaxon)
DeleteBetterTogether reunited last night it seems. Quite a love in.
Delete:-)
I agree that Scottish independence is far more likely to occur as a result of England going independent. Of course, they lack the devolved government apparatus - at the moment - but they actually have the resources to prosper and Scotland's continued provocation can only serve to anger a proud nation. So, the apparatus by which English independence can be achieved does not yet exist - but it can be hastily assembled and then utilised. I think perhaps the SNP is now banking on this. Why else would they interfere in English fox hunting laws and Sunday trading? Poke the bear and hope for a reaction.
DeleteWell, should Scottish independence ever be achieved (by active choice or by default), I will say this - it needs to be FULL independence. No pound. No bailouts. No Europe. Hard border. No financial assistance of any kind. A population must pay for its mistakes - it's the only way it can ever learn and mature (and, by God, Scotland has some maturing to do!)
Aldo
Scotland's continued provocation can only serve to anger a proud nation
DeleteAye, how many times is it now that the English have ended up with an SNP overall majority in Westminster they didn't vote for? Must be really hacking them off to just occupy a wee corner of the chamber and get voted down all the time while the Scots MPs mutter 'Roger Moore' mockingly.
Christ on a stick! If Aldo is a 'moderate Tory' I sure as hell wouldn't like to converse with a hard core one.
DeleteAldo - I'm really pushed to believe that you heard bad language in England???
DeleteAldo showing that Yoons are not all cuddly flag waving Nazis. Some of them are worse.
DeleteIs it related to T Gallagher or J Stephenson maybe?
I don't mind the English. My main reason for wanting out of the Union is that I can't stand the Welsh or Northern Irish.
DeleteI see wee Aldo's Condescension/Cringe Button, needs reset.
DeleteCreepy wee git, isn't he.
While the SP presumably chose the 60+ group as the one that would give most credence to the STory story, there will (presumably) be a breakdown in the tables by age groups within that very broad band.
ReplyDeleteShould be of some interest, to those of us middle aged folk in our 70s, to see how much of the Con/Lab support is among the really elderly (80+) compared with us and the youngsters in their 60s.
That will be interesting to see. Hopefully they will do a poll of those younger than 60.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI think this is going to show something like Con +8, Lab -8, with little change for LibDem or SNP. But I could be wrong.
ReplyDeleteGWC2 You really are a sad individual with your Nazi obsession. Get some professional help, eh?
ReplyDeleteWhat baffles me is that Slabour continue on this path to oblivion. It's almost like a liqidator assets stripping a company until they turn the lights out. A pet favourite of Dugdales is to attack the Saltire. As if that is the symbol of division and doing so will bring back support.
ReplyDeleteI think it's more a case of appealing to the hardline Brit, Orange Order lowest common denominator types like Gwc. But they already have the Tories. Slabour are fighting the Tories for the right wing anti Scottish voters now!
I'd really worry for England if they became independent - I can't see or remember anywhere or even the UK that they managed well!
ReplyDeleteWe Scots have been very generous to England for a long time,allowing them to keep all of our income and then deciding how much of it we are allowed back to spend on public services.
DeleteWhat concerns me is that as England's ideologically driven government eradicates public spending through privatisations,our share of zero spend in England (through the so called formula invented by Barnett) will be zero.
England's treasury spent millions of pounds during our referendum to ensure that they retained control of our income and they will never allow England to be detached from Scottish revenues because of the negative economic impact it would have on them.
As for the unionist tag team that appear to infest this blog,they are either in the pay of England's government or are in need of something more productive to do with their time.
Yoon parties promising the voter that they won't allow IndyRef#2 if they win power.
ReplyDeleteIn other words - we'll take your democracy from you and keep it all to ourselves. Even if you change your mind. Belter of a vote winner that. Hawd me back.
So,no change being proposed from the London based parties.
DeleteThey did everything they could to stop Indy ref 1.
They are unionist parties. If they hold a majority (unlikely) they will block further referenda. That IS democracy as, in that situation, the people would have voted for it.
DeleteOh and 'democracy' is not being allowed to vote whenever you like. That's called mob rule. We don't hold general elections when the opposition party overtakes the party of government in the polls. The people need to have a say - but they also need stability.
Aldo
In other words - we'll take your democracy from you and keep it all to ourselves. Even if you change your mind.
DeleteAnyone who changes their mind can vote for a pro-referendum party next time, surely?
Aldo, you're a fine one to talk about democracy. You don't even believe in universal suffrage.
DeleteI think you should have to qualify for a voting 'license' in much the same way as obtaining a drivers license. I don't see what's fundamentally anti democratic about that. If you don't know what a central bank does, what a deficit is or think David Cameron is the Queen's husband or something like that then you shouldn't have the right to a say in my life or that of anyone else.
DeleteAldo
(sounds the Daily Mail moron alert!)
DeleteYou definitely would need to study for the license, Klaxon.
DeleteAldo
(sounds the irony bypass alert!)
DeleteIn the unlikely event of SNP and Greens not having the majority needed then the unionist parties might be able to prevent indyref#2 originating from Holyrood. Doesn't seem likely but there you go.
ReplyDeleteHowever, depending on how the EU referendum turns out, there's no guarantee at all that Westminster will give other than token oposition. A close result that would have been reversed without Scotland being included might set those on the losing side thinking. As will all the economic arguments concocted for our benefit in order to portray Scotland as a basket case.
There is a triple lock on independence.
Delete1) Holyrood votes for a referendum
2) Westminster votes to approve said referendum
3) The Scottish public vote "yes" (or 'leave' - depends on the future wording of the question)
And some people might wish to add:
4) The Scottish public are happy with the outcome of the separation negotiations - as demonstrated in a further "are you sure?" referendum.
So, given all of the above, the head of the Westboro Baptists will be made Pope before Scottish independence happens. Sorry!
Nah, I'm not really.....
Aldo
The first referendum didn't exactly have Westminster's approval. If anything the need for such hasn't been put to the test.
DeleteRecheck my proposed scenario.
SNP or SNP/Green majority at Holyrood with, hopefully, a pro-indy majority of the vote at both constituency and regional levels.
rUK vote Leave, Scotland Remain, UK overall Remain.
Even a narrow Remain in the rUK vote might be enough if it's seen to have been influenced by Scots.
Westminster has to 'lend' the power to the Scottish Parliament to hold a referendum. It's all laid out in the Scotland Act - the constitution and the union are reserved matters.
DeleteAn EU Brexit vote might shake things up enough to give the SNP another referendum. But A)It's unlikely and B) A brexit may result in a new, streamlined relationship with Europe based on free trade alone that is favourable to Scots. Many of the powers surrendered to Brussels would also return, not to London, but to Edinburgh. It may be difficult to persuade Scots to return to 'full fat' EU.
Aldo
(sounds the tory E.U. omnishambles Klaxon)
DeleteYou live in Scarborough then Aldo?
DeleteWestminster had no power to prevent an advisory referendum which might have resulted in a demonstrated will for independence. Said referendum would have had a question about genuine Devo Max. Obviously it wouldn't have been bound by any decision reached and in the latter case would certainly have a strong negotiating position but as far as independence went there would be little it could have done.
DeleteWestminster could obviously try to reclaim the power to hold such referenda but not without triggering a constitutional crisis.
In reality,Westminster would have no choice if faced with a majority of Scots demanding another IndyRef.
ReplyDeleteIf they refused a clear democratic mandate for one, they would, by default, end this Voluntary Political Union in any case.
Realpolitik would trump everything else - and a second Referendum there WOULD, inevitably, be.
In those circumstances, "Scottish" Unionists minority mumping of gums, would just be completely ignored.
Aldo I know, it's so simple. Once we Scots get used to whatever we are to be given re. Europe (and everything else apparently), we'll obviously realize just how silly we were not to want it that way in the first place. That's when we get down on our knees (again) and thank our lucky stars that we will always have the wiser, more mature heads of the English electorate to save us from ourselves (again).
ReplyDelete*Sarcasm off*
Re IndyRef2:
Westminster will agree or Westminster will be forced to acknowledge it has no say in whither the Scots democratically elect to hold such a referendum whenever we like. It was this political reality that created the Westminster 'support' for Indyref1 in the first place. It's political realities that dictated that choice. Nothing has changed.
braco
You can have the best of Europe - and rid yourself of the bad parts - or you can have full on Europe plus all the bad stuff successive UK governments have kept us out of over the years (euro, Schengen, extra VAT). That's the choice we will potentially be facing - a VERY hard sell for the pro EU SNP, I would think.
DeleteThere are legal and practical reasons why Westminster must give approval for secession referenda. But I know you wont listen to those. Just consider this - if it's really as easy as just doing it anyway, why isn't Catalonia independent from Spain?
The central government in a unitary state has supreme power over the constitution. Period.
Aldo
Under Spanish law, referendums on independence/sovereignty must be held nationally only.
DeleteThere is no such law in the UK.
However, the Scotland Act specifically states that the constitution and the union are matters solely reserved for Westminster. That means any secession referendum in Scotland has to be endorsed by the UK Parliament to hold legal weight.
DeleteAldo
See my earlier post.
DeleteRealpolitik/political pragmatism has always, does and will always, be dominant over legislation or any other impediment.
Any knowledge of World history, clearly shows that.
Scotland/UK will be no different to the norm.
David, you need to look up realpolitik. It is to do with power, influence, money and who holds it. Reality check - it isn't the Holyrood toon cooncil. The major power in these islands is the UK government - and without its cooperation you are screwed from the get go.
DeleteAldo
Westminster has no legal or moral imperative to hold another referendum. You just lost one. Who do you expect to come to your rescue when WM says 'no' to a second? The UN? The UK govt holds veto power on the security council. Europe? The relief on the faces of EU leaders was palpable when Scotland voted no. America? They want a strong UK in a strong Europe - and if its President Trump you have to contend with you'll be lucky if SNP politicians don't end up in Gitmo. China and India want a United Britain. Russia is a different matter - but who in the west is going to listen to them?
DeleteFace it - without a massive change in circumstance you are royally fecked.
Aldo
Check again, the EU is mightier than the UK. If Scotland has the support of the EU to remain in the EU, it will.
DeleteEngland could protest but then its trade terms will change.
Aldo.......you really need to understand that Westminster is going to have no more choice with IndyRef2, than it did with IndyRef1.
DeleteYour wee, colonial, subservient mindset will not change that.
You can bleat and whinge all you like on here - it will make not a whit of difference, sonny.
If a majority of Scots demand another Scottish Referendum, Realpoltik will dictate that it happens.
Anmd......there really is nothing that bitter, wee Unionists like you - who will then, obviously be in the minority up here - can do about it, apart from drying your eyes.
You are, of course, already in the minority, going by all the polls on Holyrood, with the Unionist vote-share projected to be subservient to that of Pro-Indy Parties and subsequent minority-status in Holyrood Seats.
Unionists won the referendum and the NO option is still in front. There isn't much chance of a Yes majority anytime soon and even if there is, there would be no obligation on the UK govt to hold a referendum, as we already voted. Corbyn Labour went a point clear in the polls last week - do we rerun the GE next month because of that?
DeleteParliaments are for 5 years. This was for a generation. Deal with it.
Aldo
These old people are selfish b'stards who cost us our freedom
ReplyDeleteNot all I can assure you. Many voted yes and a lot were frightened into voting no.
DeleteAnd a lot held their head high and voted for their children and grandchildren's futures in a safe, stable, prosperous United Kingdom. This demonisation of old people is going to completely wreck any glimmer of hope the seps might yet have - by 2020, over half the population will be aged 50+. You need to win over the elderly - not castigate them as selfish coffin dodging b*stards.
DeleteAldo
What freedom you Nat si fundamentalist. So a generation of hard working old people are bas@tards according to you. I think maybe Nazi would be appropriate in your case.
DeleteMost old people I've met have been around the block and know a thing or two about the world and how it works. They've seen cycles of stupidity repeated over their lifetimes and can smell bs a mile off. And most listened to Salmond and correctly identified precisely that. We should respect our elders - they should be the go to people for sound judgments. Instead we have a shower of brats miscalling their elders instead of respecting them, all because they were denied their 'freedumb'.
DeleteAbsolute brats! Hang your heads in shame. Not a day goes by when I'm not absolutely delighted that you had your arses handed to you in that referendum.
Aldo
Cannot speak for all the elderly people in Scotland, but can certainly speak for those in my own extended family and their friends.
DeleteMost of them voted No in IndyRef and most of them, now would vote Yes - mostly due to the way they see society being adversely changed by the present WM Govt.
Has there been a recent poll of older Scottish voters intentions in IndyRef2? - would love to see if my family is the norm on that.
Irrespective, as the present middle-agers,who majority-voted for Indy, reach retirement, I believe that Pro-Indy majority will remain, as they will have spent most of their adult lives under a Holyrood Parliament and are getting more and more distanced from that other wee place on the Thames.
Their outlook on Scotland running itself will be totally different to the present elderly, most of whom have spent the vast majority of their lives under direct WM rule.
Demographics, in my opinion,will favour Yes, far more than No, in years to come.
Sunday Post poll of pensioners shows an increase in support for the union, David. So bang goes your anecdotal 'evidence'.
DeleteAll age ranges voted NO, except 25-39s, who were narrowly yes. There is no 'yes generation'. It's a myth - a longstanding one on the nationalist side, I might add.
Aldo
Wrong on both counts, Aldo.
DeleteThe most comprehensive study of InyRef voting - I believe it was carried out by Edinburgh Uni - showed that ALL age groups up to 55 voted Yes, those between 55-60 were evenly split and it was only those over 60 who majority-voted Yes.
As well as being prominently trailed on social media, it was also lead story in the Daily Record - so it must be true.
As for my point about FUTURE demographics - I think you havemissed my main point, old son.
If my family elders are presently not the norm, so be it.
Should have read " it was only those over 60, who majority-voted No"
DeleteOh, for an edit facility.
There are conflicting studies. The YouGov 'exit poll' says only one group - 25 to 39 - voted majority yes. The poll was very accurate, calling the referendum 54-46 before a vote was counted.
DeleteWe'll never know for sure - it was a secret ballot. But people do become more conservative as they age - and Scotland has an ageing population. We'll mostly be Victor Meldrews soon, Ruth Davidson will be FM and Wee Nippy will be working in a chippie.
Aldo
Just found that study my memory could have been a bit better.
DeleteExact stats were - Yes side also had a majority among voters aged 20 to 24, 25 to 29 and 30-39, while voters aged 40 to 49 were split almost exactly down the middle.
But 50 to 59-year-olds, 60 to 69-year-olds and voters aged 70 or older were all in the No camp
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-figures-revealed-majority-5408163#E9AyhelZeyfmkJs6.97
The majority of Scottish children are growing up in households with atleast one Yes voter.The majority of working age voters support independence.Im not certain that elderly No voters will continue to trample on their hopes and dreams.This opinion poll of OAPs showing such strong support for the SNP should bolster confidence in all those who want Scotland to be a normal,independent country.
DeleteIn relation to the Study of Indy Voting, I forgot to include the 16 - 19 age group.
DeleteThey voted 62.5% for YES.
"They (16-19) voted 62.5% for YES"
DeleteOf course they did. They're just kids. I can't even bring myself to be annoyed at them. Their naivety is more cute than irritating. In fact, I would have expected the yes support to be a lot higher in this age group by the way some people have been going on about it - 80:20 yes, something in the region thereof. Instead, anything over a 12.5% swing puts no in a position of dominance with these voters. As they age and get educated, get jobs, start families and pay bills, I would expect the yes support to drop dramatically. By the time they are ready to retire, they'll be in the NO camp. But let's hope by then that the question no longer bears any relevance. 40 years of neverendum? Who'll be left to vote?
Aldo
What is considered legal and not is a matter of conjecture and perspective.
ReplyDeleteIt is not at all clear that the Edinburgh Agreement was legally binding on Westminster (mainly down to the so called "constitution")but demonstrated that Cameron had agreed to be bound by the sovereign will of the Scottish people.
Being recognised by the global community as an independent state is most of the "legal" case and would determine England's future stance with regard to it's northern neighbour.
If any in the global community were unaware of Scotland's status within the "union",the London Foreign Office made sure they weren't during our referendum.
Despite the wishes of the unionists,Scotland is now globally recognised as a country which is in political union with England through democratic choice (for now) and that under international "law" will determine it's future constitutional arrangements through a plebiscite of the people who live here.
The myth of an English superstate aka UK was completely deconstructed during the referendum campaign and much down to the actions of HM government.
The right to self determination cannot be agreed as a one off process with a finite time scale for implementation but,once acknowledged,is a fundamental right for all time.
Scotland is a country.
So is Bavaria, I believe. But, crucially, it is not a sovereign state - and neither is Scotland. We live in a democratic society where we just voted on this very issue. UDI - which is effectively what is being discussed here - will not be tolerated by the rest of the UK or the international community. I expect some of the more rabid seps on here believe the people will 'rise up' or some other such nonsense. They wont. They'll be sitting in offices, pubs and movie theatres as Holyrood is suspended - probably for good. Some people will protest on Facebook. That'll be it.
DeleteAldo
As you can see from the most comprehensive academic report into IndyRef, Aldo there was a very definite generational divide.
DeleteYoung-middle aged vote Yes; middle aged sat on fence; older/elderly voted No.
No doubt in my mind that the demographic time-curve will favour Yes.
Young people can be gullible when listening to the quick talker with an agenda however you learn and observe more as you get older.
DeleteThe young today will in time see their neighbours are no different from them and know they will be no better off by voting for petty nationalism.
David,
DeleteIndependence has,for decades,been more popular among the young and Aldo is right to point out people become more conservative as they age.However,there is plenty anecdotal evidence suggesting that very few elderly voters changed their minds on Scottish independence.Those who voted against independence have never believed in it.Those who voted for independence have believed in it since they were young.I don't think it's a given that Yes voters will change their mind on independence as they get older.
Exactly my point.
DeleteThose Yessers are completely used to the idea of Holyrood being more and more in control and are already distanced from the notion of WM rule.
Independence, for them as the age, will be as natural as the Union is for the present oldies.
The demographics will, without doubt, favour Independence.
Aldo is just trolling. It's a pity, as he can debate well enough when he wants to.
DeleteOlder folk are not conservative in the sense they are resistant to change. Down in England it's the elderly that are the most pro English independence / anti-EU union. They're not freaking about 'risks and uncertainty' at all.
In fact the reason they are against the EU is for similar reasons that older Scottish folks are more pro-UK. Both groups are wearing rosy tinted specs about a 'Britain' that once was.
Except there's an ironic catch. British identity in Scotland peaks in those born in 1944; the baby boomers, and has been in decline ever since. However, their peers down south of the same age group don't feel this way. Nope, they are very, very English. They're not thinking about Scotland/Britain, but all about England.
You've seen war films right? England won the war, not Britain.
British identity in England only really grew out of Thatcherism. She did succeed in promoting a British identity. However, she did so in England, while destroying the existing post-war British identity which had developed in Scotland.
Here's the English data.
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/figure2_tcm77-310578.png
I'd looked a lot a Scottish data, but when I finally had a look at English data I LOLed. Oh the irony. In a way I feel a bit sorry for older Scots taking pride in post-war consensus Britain. They're alone in that; down in England the same age group, as noted, is taking pride in England and its glories of the time.
Your brexiters are Engxisters. Your Tories and kippers very English, not British. UKIP vote shows a very clear correlation with %identifying as English in a region. Hence the Yougov findings.
Anyway, it's an age vs national identity generation thing, much as you say anon. Time is still ticking for the union, and has been since the mid 1950's peak.
Who will bail out Scotland if the economy fails and the youngsters leave in droves as has traditionally happened in Scotland. Who will pay the tax to pay for the pensions!
DeleteIt may sound good to you Nat sis that the young will vote for nationalism then they fook aff and pay tax in another country.
"and the youngsters leave in droves as has traditionally happened in Scotland"
DeleteAs part of the union.
#BetterTogether
Good laugh Skier! So you are saying the Scottish will flourish with full employment and the Scots will stay put in their parochial home.
DeleteSo how are we going to obtain this mass employment? What the Nat sis never revealed was how many thousands would have lost their jobs had we voted Yes.
Skier,
DeleteI very interesting post on the English. Ironic that these kippers dislike all Scots even their supposed yoon allies.
It is hardly surprising as they are fed an unrelenting propaganda of poor, wee scrounger Scotland by the UK MSM with nothing to counter it.
The actions of the the English MPs in Westminster towards scottish MPs is another manifestation of the same contempt they have for Scotland.
I have always thought that this MSM bias will finally unravel the Union and there is no way of stopping it.
GWC
ReplyDeleteYou don't get it, but that's ok. We don't mind.
Petty Nationalism as you call it is not seen as petty nationalism by those wishing for Scottish Independence.
No. Rather it is seen as a progressive alternative to failing Tory Policies as exercised by successive Labour and Conservative WM Governments.
I'm afraid that you need to change your reference point in order to understand what is happening in Scotland.
Good luck.
Haud oan ther ra noo the Tartan Tories ur kerrying oot Blue Tory policies.
ReplyDelete(sounds the fake plastic Weegie Klaxon)
DeleteOok eye the noo! I'm totally a jock like all yowse ovver jocks and not some twatty little tory from darn saff.
ReplyDeleteWhy are all you chaps laughing at me??? I promise I'm a sweaty socks and as working class as the next fellow, do you ken??
Of course,we all do our extrapolations on the assumption that the sides will line up in indyref2 in much the same way as they did last time.Next time it might only be some Scottish Tories and the orange order who show any enthusiasm for a No vote.
ReplyDeleteThe bigot has swallowed a dictionary. And what makes you think members of the oo did not vote Yes. Did you stand behind them in the polling booth. You are an Fn idiot tae boot.
ReplyDelete(sounds the screeching Dreary Heil reader Klaxon)
DeleteA poll of OAPs showing more than twice as much support for the SNP as Labour is greeted with hysterical ravings from the lunatic fringe of unionism.Hilarious!
DeleteActually GWC, I do know 2 members of the OO who voted Yes.
ReplyDeleteThey were utterly sick of the lies being told to them by the No media campaign. They were both also sick of being told that Scotland was no good. Thankfully they grew a pair and voted Yes.
Orange, Monarchist, Rangers and Yes...a heady cocktail.
Wave Machine,
Deletewe're everywhere.In every profession,in every workplace,in every church and in every pub.In sports centres and schools the length and breadth of Scotland.In Brussels and in Washington.In Paris and in London.In the UN.The idea that Scotland can be a normal,independent country is widespread and mainstream.Thats the result of the referendum.The situation has changed utterly.So have the odds.
Well there you are so stop being a bigot and if every oo member and their tennis partners had voted yes you would still have lost such is the importance of the oo.
Delete(sounds the gibbering Yoon omnishambles Klaxon)
DeleteForgive me folks for my naivety, but might GWC & Aldo be a splittish-personality trollingly related to the "Bayonnet" Davidson, Ian Densely-Unsmartiepants, "Mad Dug McT" et al tag-teaming with Foulksie over a heavy duty bevvy?
ReplyDeleteOnly a thought @PS GWC's shifting register, lexis, grammar, etc - from a discourse analysis point of view - is potentially fascinating scientifically and could complement the work of the Prof at Newsnet Scotland (tons of data out there (although maybe too much in the sense of analysing buckets of grains of sand from A beach in Toberymory. However, a meta-data-base could be archived for further research and reference to by one and all looking to do objective analyses and self-enquiry)).
Just, a no doubt daft thought; but it might denude the Loonie Yoon Tunes of their bare-faced havers?
Alternatively, archive the "buggery" out of everything:)
At least you admit to being naive but you have your sense of humour unlike most Nat sis.
DeleteNice theory, but the actuality is more mundane. They're just a couple of dickheads.
DeleteJust for a bit of fun I put those figures into this http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
ReplyDeleteThe results were
SNP 62
Con 34
Green 7
Labour 21
LibDem 5
UKIP 0
So, assuming Greens are still on side, you'd still have a majority at Holyrood for independence.
Not only that but without context we can't tell if there's any movement towards the SNP or independence in pensioners. Certainly they're the most likely age group to have voted No in the hopes of meaningful devolution. Also worth noting that the push towards more and more people having a works pension is lessening any threat losing the UK state pension may have had. Although when all's said and done Darling might have done a we bit of damage in claiming that any payment towards your state pension was meaningless.
I don't imagine that hope of a meaningful devolution played a big part in senior citizens to mostly vote NO in the referendum.
ReplyDeleteThere were several reasons why we voted NO, ranging from a desire to remain Scottish and British, dislike of the triumphalism of the SNP, a fear of a future independent Scotland dominated by the SNP and the hope that their children and grand children would have a better future to look forward to as part of a larger country.
By the way we didn't want an Independence Referendum but we fought it and won and the same applies if we have another Indy Ref
Aye.But the SNP are on 43% and Labour are on 19% in this poll of older folk.Jaiket on a shoogly nail.
DeleteJimmy, Love your use of the collective "we" in reference to wanting a referendum. I, as a pensioner in full possession of all my faculties,am perfectly capable of taking decisions for myself and your presumptious "we" is quite offensive. You don't speak for me or thousands like me so take your Unionist claptrap elsewhere.
DeleteANONYMOUS
DeleteI did think that using the collective'we'was not the right thing to do, after all I'm in no position to speak for all the seniors who voted NO.
Obviously I could not possibly speak for the people who VOTED YES, either.
I hope you don't regard this as claptrap, it will take more than that to chase me away from James very informative website.
A few points to make here:
ReplyDelete1) If the young in Scotland have favoured independence for decades, then many of those young people are, by this time, old people - and we know the old favour the union. So how can it be that old people who favour the union have always done so? Presumably at least some must have changed their minds.
2) Life expectancy. It's increasing thanks to healthier lifestyles and advances in medicine. Many of the old people who voted no could be around for another 20 years. The baby boomers will be here for ages yet. By the time enough of them are dead to hand you a majority (and I'm not convinced it's as simple as that), the SNP could have been found out and gone the way of the Party of Quebec.
3) Devolution is no preparation for independence. London may seem 'distant' to some Scots. The last time I flew I was positioned in a part of the plane where I couldn't see the wings. So I guess, in a way, they weren't at the forefront of my thoughts.
We still needed them though!!
Aldo
BTW, did anyone else see the BBC4 documentary last night about the Easter rising in Ireland? I always assumed the British got an absolute doing and were effectively flung out of Ireland by military means. Not so - the UK forces crushed the rebellion, cheered on as they did so by a majority of Irish men and women. The turning point came when the leaders of the rebellion were butchered, behind closed doors, in a process that lasted several days. No mercy was shown. These brave men became martyrs and the rest, as they say, is history. Had the British government commuted their sentences or pardoned them, Ireland could well have been a part of the UK to this day.
ReplyDeleteWhat I'm trying to say is this - if a little bit of compassion from the British government could have seen off the Irish rebellion, then political tact and skill from the British government today can easily see off the Scottish Nationalists.
Aldo
"What I'm trying to say is this - if a little bit of compassion from the British government could have seen off the Irish rebellion, then political tact and skill from the British government today can easily see off the Scottish Nationalists."
ReplyDeleteAnd that, my dear Aldo, is why your beloved UK is doomed.
The Scottish people saw off the Nat sis in the ballot box something Nat sis have contempt for.
Delete(sounds the embittered red tory Klaxon)
Delete