Here's a paradox - we were much happier with the independence figures in the TNS poll than in the YouGov poll, but the new Holyrood voting intention figures from YouGov show further movement in favour of the SNP, whereas TNS suggested a recovery for Labour.
Constituency ballot :
SNP 51% (+2)
Labour 22% (-3)
Conservatives 18% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-3)
Regional list ballot :
SNP 45% (+2)
Labour 20% (-4)
Conservatives 18% (+2)
Greens 9% (+2)
Unlike the divergence that's opened up between the pollsters in relation to the independence question, this is a straight contradiction on the direction of travel. It's not just the swing from Labour to SNP that is inconsistent with TNS - the mini-surge for the Tories, taking them to the improbable position of being just 2% behind Labour on the list, is the opposite of what TNS showed. The most straightforward explanation is that nothing much has changed and that we're simply seeing the freakish effects of sampling variation.
More importantly, although YouGov's fieldwork is more recent than that of TNS, it still predates Jeremy Corbyn's election as Labour leader. So this poll doesn't take us any further forward on the crucial question of whether or not this weekend's development has been a game-changer. But at least we can be confident that the SNP arrived at this landmark moment in the best possible shape imaginable.
No Corbie bounce then. Disreporting Jackie will be most annoyed. The BBCs Brit Battles thingy isn't going to well for them either - Oh Dear Bannockburn has overtaken Achtung Spitfire in its polling and the Boyne barely registers. My ribs hurt from laughing.
ReplyDeleteAs I'm about to add to the post, the fieldwork took place well before Corbyn became leader, so it remains an entirely open question whether there'll be a bounce.
DeleteIain
DeleteYou've just left James wondering what the heck you're talking about :-)
James,
ReplyDeleteSomeone posted a hypothesis on twitter on whether Corbyn's election would affect how the Orange bloc would vote...I was wondering if you knew if the Slab vote had an orange component? Or is this bloc already voting Tory/UKIP?
Thanks, Paul
Less so than it has been. However the appointment of an apparently pro-IRA shadow chancellor will kill this remaining part of that vote stone dead. The question is where it goes. The Tories have already picked up on this opportunity will be going after this vote hard, especially on the list in Central Scotland and Glasgow.
DeleteI'm not convinced the UKIP machine is strong enough or sophisticated enough to take advantage in more disillusioned, unionist, working class areas, but they could take 2 or 3 % on the list which would be enough to stop the Tories getting a second list MSP in both Glasgow and Central.
SNP vote looks to have plunged about 10% in the last couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteAldo
This stuff really isn't your strong point, is it, Aldo? The percentage changes are helpfully contained in the post - the SNP are up 2% on both ballots.
DeleteBut down from a high of 62% / 54%. Total pro indy support now stands at 54%. Should that figure fall to 45% by the time of the election, there may well not be a majority for independence in the Scottish Parliament.
DeleteAnd that's before we even factor in the Corbyn effect.
Aldo
No, Aldo. No. It is not "down from a high of 62%". This is you talking garbage again.
DeleteThey were polling 62% about a month ago and have regularly polled in the mid to high fifties / low sixties for the last several weeks. 51% represents a possible shift away from "very high" to just "high".
DeleteI checked the poll on Wikipedia. They have 51% SNP (constituency) and 45% SNP / 6% Green (regional). We can safely assume from this that the Green supporters support SNP on the constituency ballot but feel they have a bit more freedom on the second ballot.
So that gives us a total of 51% for the pro indy parties. Another 6% drop puts them in danger of losing their majority.
Aldo
"They were polling 62% about a month ago"
DeleteNo. There wasn't a YouGov poll "about a month ago". The last one was in the spring, and the SNP vote has increased 2% since then on both ballots.
The 62% was in a TNS poll. If you actually start reading the blogposts you leave comments on, it would in most cases protect you from making these embarrassing howlers.
Right, so you do a comparison with a poll from about 4 or 5 months ago, ignoring the massive rise and fall in SNP support in the interim period. That seems awfully selective!
DeleteAldo
No, it's proper practice to compare with the most recent comparable poll, rather than with a poll that is not comparable at all. If you really don't understand something as basic as that, it's time for you to stop broadcasting and start listening.
DeleteBut aren't all polls a reasonable measure of public opinion? You say you can only compare a YouGov poll with a previous YouGov poll, an ICM poll with the previous ICM etc. I do get it. But if the last poll results from a particular company were months ago, then perhaps comparing like with like in this way is limited in its usefulness.
DeleteAldo
It's certainly a hell of a lot more useful than comparing non-like with non-like. We already have a recent TNS poll to compare to previous TNS polls, so I don't know what you're fretting about. Is your argument that the SNP started at 49% in the spring, soared to 62% in the summer, and then collapsed to 51% in September? That's obviously bollocks, but it still leaves the SNP higher than they started, so believe your little fantasy if it makes you feel any happier.
DeleteNormally such a collapse in support would look ridiculous - but there are possible reasons for it. The SNP have come under heavy fire from their own voters, for example, for encouraging refugees to enter Scotland. It would appear there is a 'Scotland First' element supporting the SNP, and they aren't happy with this.
DeleteTime will reveal the full picture, I suppose.
Aldo
Time already has revealed the full picture, Aldo - the polling information we have is more than ample to draw the firm conclusion that voting intentions have been relatively stable since the spring. If you prefer to live in a world of make-believe, that's your own affair.
DeleteQuestion perhaps a wee bit O/T: Is Aldo a Howler Monkey in addition to being a BritNat troll? A new genus (?) being evidenced before our very eyes on computer screens and on the record for ease of documentation and evolutionary research (zoological come-leaping-the-species-barrier anthropological come Lord of the Rings meets Harry Potter kind of phenomenon?).
ReplyDeleteAldo, get on your keyboard and let your fingers do the typing again - post doing the basic arithmetic and pre-phrenology 101: The notion of the monkey churning out Shakespeare, if not Dunbar and Burns, by the bucket-load awaits your nimble fingertips for proof approximately positive.
In the absence of a proper counter argument, insult insult insult....
DeleteNo wonder you lost.
Aldo
Sorry, Aldo. Misplaced a question mark in there.
ReplyDelete