Monday, September 14, 2015
Caledonian Consequences of Corbyn
Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new article at The National, about the potential impact of Jeremy Corbyn's victory on the electoral fortunes of both Scottish Labour and the SNP. You can read it HERE.
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"At best, the Corbyn factor might help Dugdale to become a more attractive leader in the eyes of traditional Labour voters, by freeing her up to chart a more left-wing course, and perhaps slaughter a sacred cow in the shape of Trident."
ReplyDeleteAfter spending the referendum and 2015 General Election on a platform explicitly attacking the SNP for their anti-Trident policies?
New Labour in Scotland's greatest enemy will be themselves. They will have to convince the people of Scotland why they backed Tory cuts, Trident, and whatnot in 2015, yet are now anti-austerity and anti-Trident.
Because they had an election and voted for a new leader with different policies and or priorities and or new strategies . to be fair, that's kinda the point of new leaders.
ReplyDeleteBecause they had an election and voted for a new leader with different policies and or priorities and or new strategies . to be fair, that's kinda the point of new leaders.
ReplyDeleteSo we should prepare for the possibility of big swing back to the right at some point if Corbyn doesn't work out?
DeleteMr Corbyn is 66. He would be 70/71 at the next election. There's no certainty he will live that long. The career minded politicians at WM will bend whatever way the wind blows to keep their grubbies on the cash. The man will have his back stabbed at every opportunity.
DeleteIts all just a side show for the next 3 to 4 or so years anyway. The Conservatives are well entrenched. They will pass boundary changes which will help themselves greatly. The Libdems won't be revived any time soon. The only opposition is going to continue to be SNP. So hunker down. Its going to be a long 5 years.
So they admit they're weathervanes, then? That's going to get people voting for them.
DeleteCorbyn presents a real test of the union. Will England - who voted 55% extreme right in May - swing back towards full on big welfare spending, refugee loving, pro-EU leftie socialism, or instead will Scotland see clearly that the future of the UK is Tory supermax.
ReplyDeleteUK VI polls during Corbynmania showed no change / a slightly growing Tory lead (from 7 points to 9 points). Given that Corbyn was increasingly in the limelight and became odds on to win a while back, we should expect to see the Corbyn effect fairly soon in UK polls if we aren't already seeing it.
Going to be interesting.
As for Scotland...given he's a status quo solid unionist MP from London, England, in true old Labour style, I'm not sure he's going to have much appeal. A devo max platform and a Tony Blair style 50%+ lead in UK polls is what he needs to have any chance of replicating 1997, particularly with the boundary changes coming...
A formal electoral pact between the SNP and the Green Party, followed by an SNP/Green coalition, would kill Scottish Labour stone dead, Corbyn or no.
ReplyDeleteThis I think also exposes Labour greatly. The defence is going to change from "we're not red tories " to "oh.... We were red tories but not anymore, they've been told to shut up now" I wonder how that is going to look to the electorate? It shows that they can't be trusted.
ReplyDeleteOn top of that, look at Scottish Labour's voting record in the Scottish Parliament. People will ask why they change? Just because you've got a new leader, not because you have any interest in what's right for Scotland?
DeleteCan't see any country of birth weighting in the Yougov poll. If that has not been done, they it would hit Yes by a good few %.
ReplyDeleteStandard Labour heavy panel as evidenced in the unweighed base.
Fascinatingly, the most pro-indy / pro-SNP group - the 18-24s - are comfortably for the union all of a sudden. Aye, yougov have this right and every other pollster has got it wrong. The least British group are firmly for the union ;-)
That odd phenomenon of a pro-union party heavy initial sample that says it voted more for indy than reality. Weird that...
DeleteOf course results the bizarre outcome of both unionist party voters being down, but also Yes being weighted down...
The Crobyn phenomenon has certainly created problems for the managers of the Scottish branch office. Having tied their colours to the neoliberal, trident, austerity mast, if the likes of Kezia Dugdale now backtracks, she is going to be open to the Mhairi Black charge:
ReplyDeleteWeather vane!. :)
2/3 of the electorate not put off voting SNP by the prospect of an iref commitment. New poll by the DM.
ReplyDeleteNot sure of the numbers, but looks like ~1/3 say it would put them off, 1/3 doesn't make any difference and 1/3 it would encourage.
Herald spin is funny.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13718202.Poll__a_third_of_Scots_less_likely_to_vote_SNP_if_party_promises_second_indyref_in_election_manifesto/
No obvious signs of a revolution in Survations first post Jeremy poll (no Scottish subsample).
ReplyDeleteJeremy Corbyn has just been elected as the new leader of the Labour Party. Of the two options below, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
27% Jeremy Corbyn
44% David Cameron
29% DK
---
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Jeremy Corbyn is fit to be Prime Minister
24% Agree
27% Neither agree nor disagree
34% Disagree
15% DK
Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour leader at the time of the next general election
33% Agree
26% Neither agree nor disagree
21% Disagree
20% DK
---
Has the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader made you more or less likely to vote for Labour, or has it made no difference to your vote?
18% More likely
24% Less Likely
57% Makes no difference
6% of Tory 2015 say Corbyn makes them more likely to vote Labour but...
15% of Labour 2015 say Corbyn makes them less likely to vote Labour
For did not vote in 2015, 17% say Corbyn makes them more likely to vote Labour while 11% say less likely.
Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?
39% "The election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party means Labour IS likely to be out of power for more than one future general election"
22% "The election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party means Labour is NOT likely to be out of power for more than one future general election"
Corbyn has a pro Trident Defence bod. Nothing has changed.
ReplyDelete