Monday, August 17, 2015

More myth-busting on independence polling

Antifrank, in an article at Political Betting -

"No retains a small but consistent lead in nearly all the polls taken since the last independence referendum."

Categorically untrue.  There have in fact been FIVE polls since the referendum showing a Yes lead - three from YouGov, one from Panelbase and one from Survation.  There has also been another Survation poll showing a dead heat. That means almost ONE-THIRD of polls conducted since September have failed to show an outright No lead.

By no stretch of the English language can those facts possibly support the claim that "nearly all" post-referendum polls have shown a "consistent" No lead.  What makes this example of mythologising even more bizarre than Andrew Rawnsley's a few days ago is that the article contains an excellent graph that helpfully illustrates how completely wrong the claim is!

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I'm slightly baffled by the pundits who are saying that Andy Burnham is being nice about Jeremy Corbyn in the hope of receiving second preferences from Corbyn supporters.  Unless Corbyn finishes third or fourth (which he won't), those second preferences will never come into play.  It's much more likely that Burnham is attempting to persuade soft Corbyn supporters to make a direct switch on their first preferences by offering them the best of both worlds - ie. radical change and electability.

Unfortunately, he has no credibility on either count.

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You can only really admire the cynicism of this headline in the Telegraph -

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon's chandelier 'was looted by Nazis during Second World War'

In reality, of course, it's not "Nicola Sturgeon's chandelier", and nor does it have anything to do with "the SNP".  It's in Bute House, which for decades has been the official residence of First Ministers and pre-devolution Scottish Secretaries of all political persuasions.  But I somehow doubt if the Telegraph would have referred to it as "Michael Forsyth's chandelier" if this discovery had been made in 1996.

14 comments:

  1. Glad you Brough this up James.

    I twice heard that clown Simon Piano on the John Beattie show today. Maintaining that support for independence had dropped since the referendum. Of course no polls were quoted and Beattie didn't challenge the outright fibs.

    Why do we pay a licence for the awful journalism and basic research at the BBC. If John wants to do politics then he needs to ask for sources, when rash statements are presented as fact.

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  2. If Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader how is the PLP going to vote on Trident and possible air strikes in Syria?

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    1. Well, it won't matter. The boys are back in town, and they'll do whatever the **** they like. That is the deal the Red Tories struck and no-one, especially not Jeremy Corbyn, will be allowed to forget it?

      We've got a majority and we don't care. Cammerooni, camerooni, nah nah nah nah nah nah.

      It is a pretty sad time for all sorts of things, but watching labour chew off it's limbs must be a delight for a Tory.

      The sooner we are out of this, the better.

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    2. Thank goodness that, while the SNP and Labour desperately try to out-stupid each other in their pursuit of the left wing, anti Britain, anti capitalist vote, there are at least some mature adults in a position to mind the stall.

      8 tory MPs, 10 Irish Loyalist MPs, and 1 UKIP MP are now all that stand between ordered, well defended, prosperous Britain and the hordes of idiots who would wreck it either by choice or by accident. This thin blue line of widely vilified and hated politicians keeps us safe from those who really would do us harm.

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  3. I very much doubt if the Daily Telegraph would have commented at all on the chandelier in Bute House in 1996, as then it was a proper newspaper of quality and not the glorified version of the Daily Mail it has become under the ownership of the loony Barclay brothers. Lies, scandal and tittle tattle were not generally found in it then. It's right wing bias was usually kept in its editorial section while actual news was reported factually and without bias. Now of course its just dumbed down tripe, no wonder its haemorrhaging readers!

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  4. I see Corbyn is one of those politicians who supports the British union but erm, isn't a British unionist (Herald today).

    Was it not Jim Murphy that coined that phrase?

    While he's still the best of a bad bunch, he's gone down in my estimation somewhat after moving into the Scotland debate with all the expertise on the subject you'd expect for an MP for Islington North.

    Seems he just wants Scotland to give him some MPs to fail miserably to force socialism on the English. Again.

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  5. I'm quite happy that the Telegraph takes such a prejudiced attitude against the SNP in particular and Scotland in general. It just goes to show how broken and unmendable the so-called "united" kingdom is.

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  6. I thought Burnham was just trying for a place in the new shadow cabinet.

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  7. While some statements made with regard to polling data may be factually incorrect, it is difficult to deny that the current overall picture indicates a lead for the no option and that if a referendum were to be held tomorrow, the likely outcome would be a no victory.

    This after 5 years of conservative government, their re election and 4 years of a relentless push for independence.

    Scotland isn't following the SNP script.

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    1. I'm not sure the election of 56 SNP MPs followed the unionist script, Aldo. But keep your chin up.

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    2. On a minority of the vote and straight onto the opposition benches where they now have as much power and infuence as the lib dems did between 1997 and 2010 i.e. not a lot.

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    3. "On a minority of the vote"

      Not a great retort from someone who supports a party that won power on 37% of the Britain-wide vote. The SNP won 50% of the Scottish vote.

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    4. The SNP secured just under 50% of the vote - 49.97%. In strict mathematical terms, it's a minority.

      Yes, the tories got 37% of the vote but acquired an overall working majority of 16. The SNP did not and are now a smallish opposition party, in Westminster terms.

      And the right, collectively, won a majority of the UK vote (tory + Irish unionists + ukip = around 50.5% of the voting public). So even under pure PR, Cameron would still be premier, at the head of a centre-right coalition. When left wingers start going on about electoral reform, I love to quote them that one - soon shuts them up.

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