Wednesday, April 29, 2015

The record tumbles again, as SNP lead by THIRTY-FOUR points in immense, idyllic Ipsos-Mori poll

It seemed hard to believe that the SNP could improve further on the dizzying heights that they'd reached in the previous two post-referendum Ipsos-Mori polls, and yet the logic was inescapable - the last Ipsos-Mori poll was way back in January, and every polling firm that has reported recently has detected a further additional swing from Labour to the SNP.  So, although the figures you're about to see are truly extraordinary, they also have a touch of inevitability about them.

Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (Ipsos-Mori, 22nd-27th April) :

SNP 54% (+2)
Labour 20% (-4)
Conservatives 17% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 5% (+1)
Greens 2% (-2)
UKIP 1% (n/c)

Again, we have a continuance of the pattern of firms that use a 'real world' methodology reporting a bigger SNP lead than firms that rely on volunteer online polling panels.  Ipsos-Mori collect their data by telephone, and are now showing a gap of 34 points, while the face-to-face pollster TNS showed a gap of 32 points in the poll they released on Monday.  Every other firm has been using a volunteer online panel, and all of them are showing a smaller gap.  The difference isn't huge in some cases, but we've yet to see the 'Great Convergence' that occurred just before the referendum.  (Admittedly TNS have shown a much more pronounced trend than anyone else, but it would be hard to call that a 'convergence', because they've rocketed from the Labour-friendly end of the spectrum a few months ago to the SNP-friendly end now.)

In a way, this is counter-intuitive - you might expect a sudden transformation in the fortunes of two parties to be magnified in polling samples populated by the political junkies that make up a significant chunk of volunteer panels.  Instead, the reverse seems to be happening, and online polls are lagging somewhat behind the tidal wave being detected by the 'real world' firms.  This is also, incidentally, a complete reversal of the pattern we saw during most of the referendum campaign, when Yes did far better with online firms (with the notable exception of YouGov, courtesy of the Kellner Correction).

It's tempting to assume that 'real world' polling is closest to the truth, but annoyingly there are other methodological factors that set Ipsos-Mori and TNS apart, and those may be muddying the waters.  Most importantly, neither firm weights by recalled referendum vote, which has become a new orthodoxy among online firms.  In fact, Ipsos-Mori doesn't weight by any form of past vote.  That might conceivably mean that enthusiastic SNP supporters are more likely to agree to be interviewed, and aren't being appropriately downweighted.  (The counter-argument is that people who are enthusiastic about their choice are also more likely to turn out to vote.)

Sticking with that theme, the other factor that makes TNS and Ipsos-Mori a little different is that they both use a particularly extreme likelihood-to-vote filter for their headline results.  That did have a big impact on the TNS poll earlier this week - a 27% SNP lead was transformed into a 32% lead after the filter was applied.  Intriguingly, though, the same thing hasn't happened with Ipsos-Mori - the SNP were ahead by 34% even before the filter.  So no alibi for Jim Murphy there.

STV, who commissioned the Ipsos-Mori poll, have projected that it would give the SNP a clean sweep of all 59 Scottish seats.  In reality, I struggle to imagine the SNP taking Orkney & Shetland - the evidence from several recent elections is that the Northern Isles are still substantially insulated from the national trend.  You never know, though - it's possible that the aftermath of the referendum may have flicked a switch there as well.

As the Ashcroft constituency polling has amply demonstrated, all of the other 58 seats are undoubtedly up for grabs.  That's not to say the SNP will win all of them, but if they fall short in a few, it might not be by much.

By far the biggest oddity in this poll is the five-point increase in the Tory vote.  Predictably, the right-wing press have leapt on that finding as if it's unquestionable truth and a stunning vindication of Ruth Davidson as leader, but I'm afraid there is precious little evidence of a Tory surge to be found anywhere else.  The Survation poll on Monday had the Tories down 2%, TNS showed a static position, and Panelbase did show them gaining, but only by 2% (and therefore well within the margin of error).  Until another firm replicates the big increase, it's probably safer to err on the side of thinking that it's a freakish result.

Over the last week or two, some of the more thoughtful unionist commentators have begun to recognise what has been obvious to the rest of us for quite some time - namely that Labour are suffering partly because of Jim Murphy's fabled "activeness", and not in spite of it.  This poll will further assist the driving home of that painful truth, because Murphy's net satisfaction rating has slumped from -4 to -19.  Unfortunately it's not possible to tell what his rating is among people who voted Labour in 2010, but we do know that among respondents currently planning to vote SNP, it's a catastrophic -53.  Someone so hellbent on antagonising former Labour voters who have drifted to the SNP never had a prayer of making good on his early boast of "holding every seat".  Murphy's days as leader may now be numbered (possibly even in single figures).

On the supplementary questions that seek to probe how voting intentions might yet change before polling day, there's the familiar mixed picture.  Although a large number of people will vote both for and against the SNP on a tactical basis, that phenomenon looks like being a net negative for the party.  But it's offset by the fact that people currently planning to vote SNP are much more certain that they won't change their minds - 86% of prospective SNP voters have already made a firm decision, compared to 76% of Tory voters, 66% of Labour voters, and just 37% (!) of the small group of Liberal Democrat voters.

The simplest and yet most important detail of the poll is the fieldwork dates - it was conducted between last Wednesday and this Monday.  Many respondents will in effect not have been saying how they plan to vote, but how they have already voted by post.  If the headline numbers are anything like accurate, the die may therefore already be cast in a large number of constituencies.

76 comments:

  1. Lol

    Do the 'undecided' levels in these polls hide 'Shy Labour' voters? Is this online or phone polling?

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    1. A lot of don't knows don't vote.

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    2. have taken the figures as indicative of a Unionist free Scotland and re-blogged them here, hoping it all comes true on the day!! https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2015/04/29/a-unionist-free-scotland/

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  2. I'm getting worried now. Someone somewhere is fucking with our heads. Ohgod! Still another week to go.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. C.c.c.c.can't count the days properly. OMG

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  3. Pandas 2 - Unionists 0

    'Mon the Pandas!!

    ROFL!


    Taxi for Murphy, Taxi for Dugdale etcetera.

    ;-D

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  4. For the umpteenth time - wow!

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  5. If the SNP end up with a strong showing I wonder if FPTP will be looked at again.

    This poll surely puts more pressure on Labour to accept an agreement, not treat Scottish votes as toxic. That approach seems to be backfiring for them.
    It comes across like they are trying to blackmail Scottish voters to vote Labour.

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  6. Good grief!

    For anyone interested in the trend over the past few months (such that it is, it's been remarkably stable since October or so): I've visualised James' SGP poll of polls here:

    http://goo.gl/8e6mgZ

    I've also plotted the seat projection that electoral calculus gives for the POP numbers here:

    http://goo.gl/I7xhrX

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  7. Look how the Tory vote has crept up on Labour. Further humiliation for SLAB if they eventually descend to third place. A hearst for Mr. Murphy!

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    1. I think that is down to 'natural' tories that voted Labour in the past, going back to their true home. The Murphy effect.

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  8. Tables:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3565/SNP-remains-in-a-strong-position-as-general-election-enters-final-week.aspx

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  9. Apparently some of the westminster bubble simpletons think the (+5) to the tories in this poll is somehow evidence of "shy unionists". I shit you not.! :-D

    Meanwhile this tweet points out the arithmetically obvious for the tory twits who don't seem to understand this poll is hardly a triumph for the cowardly fop Cameron and the anti-scottish right-wing tabloid smear campaign either.

    James Maxwell
    ‏@jamesmaxwell86

    SNP surge doesn't help Cameron. 12 pro-Cameron Scottish MPs (Con & LD) in last parliament. Could be just one or two (or none) after 7 May.



    We know perfectly well not to base everything on the polls which is why the ground campaign has been so stunning and so far beyond anything ever done before for a westminster GE.

    This only gives massive encouragement to those who have helped and are helping out in the campaign right now. Keep at it, take nothing for granted, and remember since we are on a mere 6 seats right now there is no way on earth the unionists can spin any figure far, far higher than that as a disappointment for us. We will be too busy celebrating to hear their feeble spin for a start. ;-)

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    1. The SNP must have more people on the ground than they know what to do with. I put my name and email into their volunteer to help form on the website a few weeks ago and have heard nothing.

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    2. Same for me. I entered my details on Emma Harper's website, offering to help out in D, C & T, and I have had no response either.

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    3. Most candidates are running Twitter/Facebook accounts which list info on when and where they are out campaigning. If you just turn up you will be welcomed.

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    4. Most candidates are running Twitter/Facebook accounts which list info on when and where they are out campaigning. If you just turn up you will be welcomed.

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    5. There was a contact form on the website, which is what I used. I am afraid that I am not actually sure what Facebook and Twitter are, and how they work. I am reluctant to sign on to something I don't understand, especially for reasons of privacy and security.

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    6. Take a look at the events in the following link and head there in person to meet the team & get involved.

      https://www.facebook.com/EmmaHarperSNP/events

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    7. "The SNP must have more people on the ground than they know what to do with."

      Quite the reverse. We could ALWAYS do with more help for stalls, volunteering in shops, leafleting, canvassing etc.

      The best way to be in constant contact with your local SNP branch is obviously to join and become an SNP member as you will get emailed all the details of local campaign activities usually on a weekly basis.

      As has been said though just turn up either in an SNP hub/shop or ask anyone at an SNP stall or leafleting. You're bound to find one fairly close in a town locally or see volunteers on the ground at some point.

      Can't speak to the contact response in that branch website but you don't actually need to join twitter or Facebook to view details of campaigning activities nor are they just on Facebook or twitter. Just try a general search for your area in Google.

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    8. Thanks, Jock, that was kind of you.

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    9. It is also worth saying that everyone is in full flow so it can be easy to miss web site sign ups in the middle of running downhill with your hair on fire. I would suggest, as someone else has said turning up at a local office, approaching a local stall or getting a contact telephone from HQ. If you have recently joined some branches are in touch by telephone to welcome you. I'm not sure if that is standard practice.

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    10. Pretty much what everyone else said. Web site offers of help are probably not being monitored at this stage of the game. I suspect no purely online offer will be noticed. People need to get in touch in real life.

      I'm in Tweeddale, and organising the leafleting and so on in most of Tweeddale West. I know who to put anyone in touch with if they want to help in the north part of Emma's constituency. If it's anywhere near Peebles, I'll love you forever. Give me a rough location, people?

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  10. Oh Dear! The postal votes are already out. Big Jim is running out of time to turn things around. However, the numbers of undecided look a bit large at this stage, which is microscopically worrying.

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    1. The numbers of undecided aren't out of line. Many don't vote, and the ones that do never break en masse for one party. Particularly not the party that's tanking in the polls.

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  11. < undoes belt >







    Mandela

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  12. I’ve been firmly of the belief since the start of the campaign that Ruth Davidson has given the Scottish Conservatives their self respect back. If Tory sympathisers would ignore the tactical voting confusion and focus on their own party they could see themselves within a point or two of SLab which would be the most resounding vote of confidence for Jim Murphy. Dead man walking.

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    1. Phil, I think you could be right. However, the Tories in Scotland are basically an ageing party. You just need to look at the pictures of the party conferences to see that. This is probably why Ruth Davidson is being talked up. I would not be surprised if she does not stand for Holyrood next year. I reckon the Tories have her in the frame for standing somewhere in the south of England.

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    2. You could be right about down south. But I would see her as being kept in place until at least Holyrood 2016 is settled. They would probably want her in Edinburgh as long as possible as she is virtually the only Tory in the country who can get any sort of message across to the media.

      Anyway, it’s hilarious to watch Labour having to look in the rear-view mirror to see their partners in crime from Project Fear closing in on their tail.

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    3. Yeah, I would never vote Tory, but I have respect for Ruth Davidson. She is honest and straight forward about what she believes in, but it seems Murphy will say anything to get a point across, and you can never tell if any of it is sincere, or even true. Murphy appealing to anybody is just completely bizarre to me. It's almost like he is the embodiment of everything that's wrong with politics and politicians. It will be sensational if he gets voted out.

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  13. This is just getting bizarre now!

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  14. What's interesting about this is the collapse in Labours vote.

    A few people have been worrying about the number of Don't Knows and if they would break in large numbers for Labour, but it seems that Labour aren't even hanging on to their own vote, so how they expect to attract these DK's with the dismal, negative and dishonest campaign, that they are running, is beyond me.

    Let's just hope that Jim Murphy somehow manages to remain leader going into the Scottish Elections in 2016, as it's clearly his brand of politics that is making people turn away from Labour.

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  15. I have to laugh at Unionists saying "this is nonsense, there won't be a uniform swing." They're right - there won't be a uniform swing. The swing is even more in the SNP's favour in Labour strongholds that voted Yes.

    I really do struggle to believe that the Northern Isles will go to the SNP. In my wildest dreams they would, but my god... can it really happen? Why won't Ashcroft just poll those blasted islands? We've seen the ambiguity of the Borders (i.e. Berwickshire, Tweeddale etc) so that's got me worried we can't make a breakthrough there. I really, really wish we would though, my god I do.

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    1. The first tranche of Ashcroft polls iirc had the SNP ahead in the Northern Isles. Since then Carmichael has blotted his copybook over the Sturgeon Frenchgate smear. So he is at the very least not very safe.

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    2. No, Ashcroft hasn't polled Orkney & Shetland (presumably because he assumes it's safe for the Lib Dems).

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    3. Here in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale we're feeling cautiously optimistic. Berwickshire, Roxburghshire and Selkirk is more of a nail-biter, but the guys are fighting all the way and Calum is well in contention.

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    4. There has historically been a strong Tory vote in the northern isles, bolstered now by a lot of immigration. I would expect a lot of that to vote tactically. I'd love the SNP to win Orkney & Shetland. But.

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  16. I'm beginning to suspect my "Labour win most Scottish seats" bet may not come in.

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    1. As a punter myself I know how infuriating it is to have some eejit say "I told you so".

      But I did yesterday! You can console yourself that it is the most satisfying bet you will ever place.

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  17. I've got £45 on SNP to wipe the board at 13-1

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  18. Is this the lowest-ever poll figure for Labour in Scotland?

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  19. After the concerns raised after the referendum this, from the Western Isles, could be worrying.

    From the Hebrides News.

    "Around one fifth of the people in the Western Isles have applied to vote by post.

    Some 4,158 postal packs have been mailed locally compared to a total of 2,329 islanders who chose to vote by post in the 2010 General Election.

    The size of the electorate is estimated at around 22,000.

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    1. An increase, but not an unusually high percentage. No cause for concern in itself.

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    2. Not surprising that a lot of people in that sort of geography want postal votes. Nothing wrong with a postal vote so long as the voter's registration isn't fraudulent and they're not subjected to third-party pressure when casting their vote.

      The other concern, that a lot of postal votes may be cast before a late swing could have changed some voters' minds, isn't really a huge worry for the SNP in this election!

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    3. 20% is not unusually high. The postal vote % in Cornwall last time ranged between 16% and 25%. I'm slightly surprised that the Western Isles % is not higher than 20%, given that some people there will have to make more effort to get to/from a polling station.

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    4. Obviously very rural so no great surprise really. Also anecdotally I know a lot of folk who are to and fro the islands with work commitments etc and thus might not be able to make the polling station on the day.

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  20. I think the SNP will fall just short of a clean sweep.

    57 MPs is my guess.

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    1. I cannot see the SNP getting over 50 seats. I prefer to be cautious when it comes to the actual voting/results. Anything over 30 seats is very good.

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    2. 30 seats would be a failure - that would mean 29 for the Unionists.

      Not going to happen.

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    3. I never said it was going to happen. I just do not believe all this talk of the SNP winning all seats, or even 50 or over seats. How can you say 30 seats is a failure for the SNP? The most they have ever had was in 1974 with 11 seats.

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    4. There comes a point where we have to look at the numbers in front of us. 59 seats is unlikely because of the Orkney & Shetland obstacle, but to believe that 50+ isn't even a possibility, the pollsters would have to be getting it completely wrong.

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    5. James quiet there, I am trying not to get my hopes up too much, *feet firmly on ground* cliché.

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    6. Derek Bateman was noting this week he thought 24 represented success for him!! I understand that we all want to keep our feet on the ground, both metaphorically and in a canvassing and activism sense but there is no point denying reality. The minimum number of seats for this election to be considered a success is 40. For it to be great we must crack 50.

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  21. 1922 Labour 22%. Murphy you are a record breaker!

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    1. Dedication, oo-ooh, dedication. Dedication, that's what you need. If you want to be the best, and if you want to beat the rest, oo-ooh, dedication's what you need.

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  22. I sure I read that when Alex Salmond first became leader of the SNP in 1990, the Tories were either just behind or just ahead of the SNP in the opinion polls. I think the SNP were around 20 per cent at that time. Now it appears SLAB are at that level at present, and that is with BBC Scotland, and the rest of the MSM trying to cover their backs (minus the Sunday Herald/National).

    The changes that have taken place in Scottish politics since 1990 is incredible. Even in 2000 SLAB were by some distance still the dominant force.

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    1. The SNP got 14% of the vote in the 1987 general election.

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    2. That was the year it was obvious to anyone looking at UK politics as a whole that an SNP landslide was the only way to save Scotland from Thatcherism.

      28 years later, people have finally caught on.

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    3. @James

      Yes, 14 per cent is terrible, but the SNP tore themselves apart for the best part of half the decade in the 1980s, so maybe not surprising (Labour did as well in fairness). Plus Gordon Wilson was leader, and with the best will in the world he is not exactly an inspirational Salmond/ Sturgeonator esque figure.

      The rigged referendum of 1979 cast a horrible shadow over the SNP in the early to mid 1980s. Still one massive positive from the 1987 election, the rise of Eck to be a MP.

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    4. I remember those days very well. The SNP tearing itself apart. The Labour dominated Scottish Media, as in BBC Scotland, well that hasn't changed for one thing. I thought we had better newspapers in those days but they have gone the way of the BBC. But there was next to no internet or social media in that dark age either. It was also the decade where the tactical vote was born as well I suppose and Scotland became an anything but the Tory vote Nation. It was in my estimation something that favoured Labour most of all and then the Lib Dems and to a lesser extent the SNP. I remember all too well the gang of four tearing the Labour Party down with it. It wasn't just the SNP that was divided.

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  23. Just wait until May 8. The unionist parties and the tame MSM will be screaming about a one-party state.

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    1. They presumably want some sort of law to prevent too many people voting for the same party? Have they thought this through?

      No doubt they'll start bleating about how FPTP is playing out in all this. Funny they all wanted to keep it in 2011. When it was disadvantaging the SNP.

      They favour voting systems to disadvantage the SNP, and in the end the SNP breaks them. d'Hondt in 2011, now hopefully FPTP in 2015. Up yours, unionists.

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    2. @FergusMac

      Who cares what the MSM say? As far as I am aware they never bothered complaining when Labour were dominating Scotland.

      I know this is going to sound absolutely bonkers given present polling, but I think the SNP would benefit from PR being introduced to Westminster elections. It is virtually impossible to sustain this level of popularity. The SNP got about 33 per cent of the vote in 1974, and only had 11 MPs out of 72.

      If a PR system was used at Westminster, the SNP would have had a significant number of extra MPs over time, and people like Stephen Maxwell would have reached the level they and the party deserved. It is verging on the criminal that people as talented as Maxwell, Isobel Lindsay, Margo Macdonald, Neil McCormack etc were not MPs (or for only a very short time, MM). If you think about all the Jimmy Hoods of SLAB, it is enough to make your blood boil. Remember SLAB never got over 50 per cent of the vote in general elections, and the amount of dross that has been elected is staggering.

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  24. So James, what do you think? Do you think the SNP could take Orkney/Shetland?

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  25. Yes Shetland on Facebook is worth a look - huge following, some very inspiring photos of campaigning - the feeling from following that page is very much that Orkney & Shetland could vote SNP, and if they do I suspect that facebook page will have been an important influencer

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    1. That sounds like great news Lorna, I love Orkney & Shetland and I really like the SNP candidate up there so I've been rooting for them for some time. I get the impression though that Shetland may vote SNP more strongly than Orkney? Didn't it have a higher Yes vote?

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  26. Amazing stuf, but I'm still weary of these polls.

    Just 8 days to go. Keep plugging away, folks and come 10pm on the 7th pour yourself a large drink or whatever your vices are - and sit back.

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  27. James, what is the % of undecided in this poll, and is it consistent with what it would be in a "normal" election?

    I'm just mindful of John Major's win in the 1992 election. The pollsters' own Market Research Society launched an inquiry into what had gone wrong, because the polls had been predicting a 1.5 % point lead for Kinnock, but "events, dear boy" saw Major come thumping home with a 7.6% % point lead.

    The eventual conclusion was that a significant proportion of swing voters had misled the pollsters. They had aspired to Labour values in their hearts, but their heads were swung by Major's "secret weapon" of tax cuts, knowing that many people vote by their hip pockets in the privacy of the polling booth.

    The undecideds this time round in Scotland could harbour a lot of Unionist voters of the "we're not political" type who just don't want to get into an argument by outing themselves, but who might turn out on the day. Remember, too, that in past elections when a reputable pollster called, people would trust it at face value. Today, with all the junk calls, people may be much more circumspect of what they'll say over the phone or even face to face to a stranger.

    Thus my question as to what's known about them. Together with tactical voters it seems to me that we should constrain too much optimism and especially, not dig any holes of triumphalism. Indeed, if the polls do perchance prove right, triumphalism would become our worst enemy should we succumb to "bayoneting the wounded." We need to constantly to hold before us the vision of what kind of a society, and what sort of human relationships, we're urging others to aspire towards.

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  28. On tactical voting. I will be voting tactically for the SNP this time. In 2016 I will vote tactically for the SSP or Greens on the list vote depending on which of them can beat the Tories/Labour/Lib Dems on the list. Indeed how many people will be lending their vote to SNP to humph the Labour Party or the Lib Dems or indeed the Tories this time? Have any of the pollsters asked that, I wont hold my breath on the BBC asking that question though.

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  29. Alastair, you have to remember that we have just had a referendum on independence, the SNP have been at pains to point out that they have no plans for another indy ref at the moment, and it would frankly been bonkers to want to hold another one so soon after last September. I understand what you are saying about the undecided voters, but to be honest it is only the diehard unionists, loyalists, SNP outers types that will refuse to vote for the SNP. If there is any election that would tempt the undecided or soft Nos to vote SNP this is pretty much it.

    I agree completely on your point about triumphalism. I do not expect any real problem between Yes and No voters. However, if certain politicians from the No side get beaten, then there will be more than a hint of schadenfreude from some Yes supporters, that is just human nature.

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    1. Well Muttley, it's hard not to acknowledge that last point, even though schadenfreude enjoys bouncing back on one. Anent Iain's comment about tactical voting, I was out at the recent Faslane protest and there was Patrick Harvie sitting on the ground beside the North Gate, pondering whether or not to get arrested. He gave me a resigned smile when I said it didn't make sense this time round to vote Green where Iive, but I hope that when the Scottish elections come a lot of people will remember the debt of gratitude owed to the Scottish Greens who, during the Referendum, provided a shield for the SNP by not leaving it as the only Yes party.

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    2. If the results go well, and the likes of Jim Murphy, Margaret Curran, Douglas Alexander, Tom Harris, Ian Davidson, Danny Alexander etc, get beaten if will very, very difficult not to stifle a laugh or a billion,,,

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  30. I see this has just been posted on Wings, it is an article on Labour Uncut. Oooft, I think it is fair to say the UK Labour comrades are not taking the news from Scotland very well...

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/04/27/labours-doomed-in-scotland-and-ed-needs-to-put-sturgeon-in-her-place-so-scrap-the-barnett-formula/#.VUEVzK8Wai0.twitter

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    1. If they dared then it would be the change in circumstances that Sturgeon is waiting for.

      A budget with massive cuts and tax rises followed by a snap Holyrood election, followed by a referendum with the fear of what might happen with independence versus the certainty of what will happen without Barnett.

      Best not to interrupt them....

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  31. If the SNP do incredibly make something of a clean sweep, who will champion the union in a future iref?

    Carmichael on his own?

    Broon no more... Darling no more...

    Murphy no more (?)... Alexander no more (?)....

    Davidson no more (?)... Moore no more (?)... Kennedy no more (?)...

    Curran no more(?)....

    Welcome, it seems at least, to the last 7 days of a Labour Scotland.

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