When the news came through last night that the Liberal Democrats had slumped to a historic low of just 5% in the latest GB-wide YouGov poll, I wondered if that might mean that the SNP and Plaid Cymru had drawn level with them - and so it has proved.
Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 2nd-3rd March) :
Conservatives 36% (+1)
Labour 34% (+2)
UKIP 14% (-1)
Greens 6% (n/c)
SNP/Plaid Cymru 5% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-2)
The Scottish subsample figures are fairly routine : SNP 40%, Labour 27%, Conservatives 20%, UKIP 6%, Liberal Democrats 4%, Greens 2%. As usual, the SNP lead would have been even bigger if it hadn't been for the misconceived downweighting based on Westminster-centric party ID target figures - 42 SNP and Plaid identifiers have been downweighted to count as just 32 respondents, in spite of the fact that Scottish respondents in general have had to be slightly upweighted.
Some people are confidently suggesting that today will bring the publication of more Scottish constituency polls from Ashcroft, although as far as I'm aware the man himself hasn't publicly confirmed that. If true, I'm fairly sure there'll only be a limited number this time, perhaps concentrating mostly on constituencies that have big name sitting MPs (such as Ross, Skye & Lochaber and East Renfrewshire). It might leave quite a distorting impression, because if any seats are likely to buck the national trend, those are the ones.