Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Do the SNP have a genuine chance of beating Alistair Carmichael in Orkney & Shetland?

As you may have heard, Danus Skene was unveiled as the SNP's candidate for Orkney & Shetland a few hours ago.  He's 70 years old, which in combination with 20-year-old Mhairi Black's candidacy in Renfrewshire is a really encouraging sign that the party aren't interested in putting forward a slate of safe, dull, identikit candidates in an attempt to press home their current opinion poll lead.  Instead, the person considered to be the best option available for each constituency is getting the nod, regardless of age, gender, etc.  When Mhairi Black first started making headlines, our old friend Mike Smithson derisively snorted that any party putting forward such a young candidate was showing a complete lack of respect for the electorate.  He apparently didn't possess the self-awareness to spot the extraordinary disrespect he was showing to all young people with that remark.

It's true that I've said many times before that the current cult of youth when it comes to choosing party leaders has got way out of hand.  But the point is that good leadership requires experience and acquired wisdom.  By contrast, being a good constituency member of parliament does not really involve leadership skills - the required attributes are commitment, integrity and hard work (none of which Malcolm Rifkind could ever be accused of).  Age is not a barrier to those, either at the lower or upper end of the spectrum.

What many people assume will prove to be a barrier for Danus Skene is the electoral arithmetic in the Northern Isles, which have been held by the Liberal Democrats or the old Liberal party since dinosaurs roamed the Earth.  Curiously, though, as of this moment, the Election Forecast website is suggesting that the SNP have a 52% chance of gaining the seat.  That projection probably won't last, because the individual seat forecasts have been fluctuating from day to day.  But the fact that the SNP are even rated as being in with a shout is startling, given that unpublished constituency subsample data from YouGov is apparently factored into the numbers.

My gut instinct is to say that this sort of prediction ought to make us less trusting of the Election Forecast methodology.  I've been a touch sceptical all along, due to the website's consistent verdict that Plaid Cymru are facing "almost certain seat loss", which seems totally counter-intuitive.  There are any number of reasons for thinking that the forecast of an SNP gain in Orkney & Shetland is equally implausible -

* The SNP finished 41.4% behind the Lib Dems last time.

* Even as the SNP were winning a national landslide in 2011, the Lib Dems held the two Holyrood constituencies of Shetland and Orkney by reasonably comfortable margins.  The SNP failed to take second place in either.

* At a time when the Lib Dems were being slaughtered almost everywhere else in the entire UK, they won the European elections in both Orkney and Shetland last spring by a convincing margin.

* The Yes vote in the Northern Isles in September, although respectable, was probably low enough to ensure that the SNP can't win the seat in May by simply replicating that percentage.

That's the bad news, but are there any grounds for optimism?  Given the scale of the SNP's current poll lead, probably the best pointer is the 2011 Holyrood result.  The European election result is less relevant, because the SNP only had a modest national lead of 3%, and because there was a very low turnout.

This is the combined result for Orkney and Shetland in 2011 -

Liberal Democrats 42.0%
Independents 27.9%
SNP 18.1%
Labour 6.1%
Conservatives 5.8%

I know some of you will protest that the SNP fared considerably better on the list, but for my money the constituency results are a more useful guide to what might happen in May, because they factor in exactly the kind of personal incumbency bonus that Alistair Carmichael can be expected to enjoy.

The obvious hope is that the hefty vote for the independent candidates was a sign of deep disaffection with the Liberal Democrats.  If the SNP become established in people's minds as the only credible challenger this time around (as they surely are), the votes are theoretically out there to defeat Carmichael.  A very tall order, but not impossible.

32 comments:

  1. I think your headline is a QTWTAIN (question to which the answer is no).

    The Tories and Labour have no aspirations in O&S, so it's very easy to imagine the LD squeezing them. Even if the SNP could get up towards 40%, which would be a great effort there, it probably wouldn't be enough.

    Today's YouGov sub-sample:

    SNP 48, Lab 19, Con 13, UKIP 8, Green 8, LD 3.

    Quite an unusual result. Must be just about the lowest Labour score, well, ever. Not quite sure what demographic the sample was skewed towards to get that kind of result. Normally when the Tories are low, UKIP are also low.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/nhptcme7t3/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-240215.pdf

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it's a QTWTAIPBNNN (Question To Which The Answer Is Probably But Not Necessarily No). The Tories might well be squeezed by the Lib Dems, but there's no obvious reason to suppose that the SNP won't be the beneficiary if the Labour vote drops. As far as I can see, the Independent vote in 2011 does seem to have been an anti-Lib Dem vote, but of course that doesn't necessarily mean those are all people who would be comfortable switching to the SNP.

      Delete
    2. Sure, it's a hell of an ask and is pretty unlikely. That certainly doesn't mean it's impossible.

      I'd also point out that when it comes to the lib dems you can never underestimate calamity Clegg's personal ability to somehow make his yellow tory ostrich faction even more unpopular. When it comes to actual elections and campaigns (like Holyrood, the locals, EU elections etc.) that has been proven to be the case time after time after time.

      Delete
  2. Twenty years of age is ridiculously young for a parliamentarian. SNP or otherwise. It merely shows the SNP have absolutely no aspirations for winning the seat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good grief, what a load of nonsense. They not only have "aspirations" to win the seat, they're in pole position to win it, as the Ashcroft poll demonstrated.

      You do know that Bernadette Devlin was 21 when she was elected? Did she have "absolutely no aspirations" either?

      Delete
    2. Charlie Kennedy was 23 when he took his seat, maybe not the best omen but he became leader of his party and has been an MP for over 30 years, not for much longer though....

      Delete
    3. I think what's being said by anon is that young people shouldn't have any aspirations today's UK. That and they shouldn't have any parliamentary representation; probably not the vote either as if e.g. 20 year olds are too young to be elected representatives, then people of that age are not old enough to vote sensibly. I very much disagree.

      Delete
  3. UK Survation:
    49% SNP
    26% Lab
    14% Con
    5% Lib
    4% UKIP
    3% Green

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Feb-Mirror-tables.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  4. 'Candidate in your constituency' way of asking (rather than party):

    50% SNP
    21% Lab
    16% Con
    5% Lib
    4% UKIP
    3% Green

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So when people think about the actual people involved, SNP vote goes up and Labour vote drops sharply? Very interesting...

      Delete
  5. Scotland has the highest level of 'I'm sure I will vote this way' at 79%; rUK is more 64%.

    ReplyDelete
  6. "It's extraordinary to recall that a 72-year-old was one of the two leading candidates in the last US presidential election..." HMMMMMMMMMMMMM

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's a quote from me, but I'm not really sure what point you're making.

      Delete
  7. WIll independents stand this time around?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The independent (in Shetland) last time was an anti-Viking windfarm candidate. The windfarm issue has been all the way through the courts and is now approved so wouldn't think there will be an independent. Danus is a good debater, but it is a big ask. 2016 Holyrood is another matter

      Delete
  8. Friend of mine got a Yougov invite yesterday, he said it was a full GB poll rather than Scotland. They seem to ask the two questions that S_S has above. He was rather puzzled to be asked if he approved of the Australian participation in the Eurovision Song . He thought it was a early April Fool but have put him right on that topic. :)

    ReplyDelete
  9. RE 2011, the Orkney and Shetland had quite different breakdowns, owing to a number of factors (independents, Tavish Scott! etc):

    Orkney LD 36% (-12), SNP 25% (+6), IND 25 (-)
    Shetland LD 48% (-19), SNP 12% (-5), IND (-)

    The big LD vote for Shetland was undoubtably boosted by Tavish Scott's profile, and the SNP vote in both islands was probably affected by strong independents. It seems an SNP gain in 2015 is possible, but difficult.


    Mind you, if the LibDems loose the northern Isles, they won't have any seats in Scotland after May 7th!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe Shetland was the only constituency in 2011 in which the SNP vote fell. It'd be interesting to see a proper psephological study of the Northern Isles and why they appear to be almost entirely immune to national political trends.

      Delete
    2. Don't know about Shetland but in Orkney if you put a canary up as candidate they would vote for it because it is yellow. They are still in Jo Grimond time, why think just do as we have always done, it is the only explanation of why an otherwise intelligent people cannot seem beyond yellow

      Delete
  10. The difference this time? Coverage. The London media has been forced to admit that SNP exists, that it has sensible policies and is so popular it could be part of a coalition. Those who, for reasons best known to themselves, despised Salmond have gotten their way. He is no longer party leader and Nicola is the one doing the talking now. With England thoroughly scunnered with 'business as usual' we could see a historical result.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Yes Shetland on facebook sound very confident about SNP taking this constituency.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They were sounding confident of delivering a yes vote up there as well.

      Delete
  12. Sadly proper politics has never developed in either Orkney or Shetland. The LDs take the place of a regionalist party but do nothing to advance regional interests. Voting for them for most Orcadians and Shetlanders is merely a demonstration of local identity more than anything else but there is no real pressure for the representatives to do anything since the vote has remained solid in spite of decades of inaction. It's interesting to compare the lively political scene in faeroe with the lifeless politics of O&S.

    ReplyDelete
  13. When I first moved to the Orkneys in 1996 it was like Central Scotland in the mid sixties. Nowadays it's like the mid nineties. Political change is glacial, like most things up here. Apart from the malign influence of the Lib Dems it's a great place to live, if you can put up with the power cuts. Don't see bawface losing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have obviously not learned very much about where you stay, it's Orkney not the Orkneys!!

      Delete
  14. The other candidates should challenge him to a debate. He's not very good at debates.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Incidentally, has anyone actually seen Alistair Carmichael since the referendum?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He was harpooned by a Faroese and turned into walrus kebab.

      Delete
    2. Bawface and Liam are never off the internet Orcadian. You might think there were elections coming up?

      Delete
  16. Would love SNP to win O&S but if an Independent stands they will let Carmichael in, Thats how its aways been,

    ReplyDelete
  17. YouGov sub-sample: SNP 48, Lab 22, Con 19, Others <6.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qka7b57k35/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-250215.pdf

    15% saying Ed would make the Prime Minister.

    ReplyDelete