It's becoming increasingly hard to blog about opinion polls when I'm on the move, because the datasets won't always load on my mobile phone (the YouGov website has become particularly hopeless since it was redesigned). Hence the delay in posting a post-Ipsos-Mori Poll of Polls update, but here it is at last. It's based on two full-scale Scottish polls (from Survation and Ipsos-Mori), plus eight Scottish subsamples - four from YouGov, one from ICM, one from Ashcroft, one from TNS-BMRB and one from Populus. The full-scale Panelbase poll has now dropped out of the sample, which is part of the reason for the huge increase in the SNP's lead.
Being able to include a poll from TNS-BMRB makes this something of a red letter day, because their numbers are usually too far out of date, even on the day of publication!
No percentage change is listed for the Greens, because I wasn't able to include them in the last update.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election :
SNP 47.1% (+4.2)
Labour 25.6% (-2.4)
Conservatives 14.3% (-0.7)
Liberal Democrats 5.5% (+0.5)
Greens 3.7%
UKIP 2.5% (-2.9)
(The Poll of Polls uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
Ach well, so much for the SNP lead. Clearly they are doomed to lose their deposits. Hubris from Sturgeon gets its just rewards.
ReplyDeleteLoL
Delete14-15% seems about right for Conservative support in Scotland in 2015, given the demographic of habitual Tories is shrinking, but only very slowly. It is hard to imagine Conservative support going *up*, for example to 18 or 20%, but also, a collapse to 10-12% seems unlikely too. I think there are a number of Tories who will vote tactically for Labour but I suspect that in Scotland, in tight seats anyway, this is not a new practice.
ReplyDeleteVery impressive polling, but still plenty of work to be done.
ReplyDeleteNo crowing here, but of course we can smile a bit at those scores, eh? But back to work. Labour were spouting "We're only 10% behind'' on Sunday, so the IPSOS poll was terrific to see a large SNP lead, but again, a long way to go.
Interesting point - a pal of mine who works with a Tory and is strongly considering backing the SNP in May. The Tories came I think 4th in his constituency and sees it at as wasted vote. So for all the 'Unionist alliance' folk who are out there, there still could well be a bit of a SNP bounce from Tories who are writing off Scotland and hoping that the Tories can win the most seats in England.
So much for the "unionist alliance" then. Why would a tory supporter risk putting Ed Milliband in Downing Street? Come to think of it, why would a Labour supporter risk putting Ed Milliband in Downing Street?
DeleteKevin's pal obviously understands that the SNP are not standing on an independence ticket so he can afford to vote for them to get Labour out.
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DeleteIn my area of the country (West Aberdeenshire) the Tory vote is kept going by the English moving up here from the South. They're almost invariably Tories if they're over the age of 50, as most of them are. If immigration from the South were to slow somehow e.g. an economic crash of some kind or independence that demographic would die off swiftly, shrinking to the landlords and well-to-do - a demographic that is gradually losing power and influence as years wear on.
ReplyDeleteYou need to include a new phone in the new fund raiser. Something like the LG G3 or a nexus 5/6.
ReplyDeleteYep. Go figure out what you need, James, and let us know. There's going to be a lot of polls.
DeleteI think he'd be better off with a netbook or ultraportable laptop tethered to his mobile phone, either by USB cable or wireless hotspot. In my experience it's much easier to get things done with a proper Windows computer than with even the best mobile phone.
Deletehttp://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jan/22/bbc-and-itv-set-to-expand-party-leader-debates-to-include-greens-snp-and-plaid-cymru
ReplyDeleteSNP would probably take about 30 seats off Labour on these numbers.
ReplyDelete*gulp*
Could be worse I suppose!
Yep, electoral calculus makes it 33 gains from Lab on these numbers. 47 SNP seats in total. Would be some night!
DeleteAnd, if you move just another 0.5% from LAB to NAT, it says that Lab would lose a further 3 seats.
DeleteThose of Dougie Alexander, Muggie Curran and a certain Jim Murphy.
Douglas Alexander: ‘We won’t just keep seats in Scotland – we’ll win even more’.
DeleteDDH
"Douglas Alexander: ‘We won’t just keep seats in Scotland – we’ll win even more'."
DeleteI had to Google that. I honestly don't know what to say. Lost for words.
Aye, it looks like the SNP surge which will take most LibDem seats too is Miliband's only hope of becoming PM. Of course this will exclude New Jim as he is set to lose his seat if polls are anything like accurate - then he really will be keen to get into Holyrood.
ReplyDeleteI've been wondering about what will happen in this situation. As I understand it, Labour rules state that the leader of Scottish Labour has to be a member of either Westminster or Holyrood. If the Eggman loses at the GE this year, will he be able to to wait to stand at Holyrood in 2016, or will he have to convince an MSP to stand aside and trigger an immediate by-election?
DeletePerhaps it's an academic question, of course. If he lost his own seat at Westminster then he'd probably be ejected from the leadership by Scottish Labour's few remaining members anyway, I imagine.