For the first time in 2015, the SNP and Plaid Cymru have reached 5% of the GB-wide vote in a YouGov daily poll...
Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 7th-8th January) :
Conservatives 33% (+1)
Labour 33% (n/c)
UKIP 13% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)
Greens 7% (n/c)
SNP/Plaid Cymru 5% (+1)
And the Scottish subsample figures couldn't be more different from yesterday's : SNP 46%, Labour 24%, Conservatives 17%, Liberal Democrats 6%, UKIP 5%, Greens 2%. We're in for greater day-to-day volatility now that YouGov are relying on much smaller Scottish samples, and the fluctuations this week are a good example of what to expect on a regular basis - the SNP's lead has varied from 6 points to 22. (In fact, the volatility could well prove to be a lot worse than that.)
I must say I'm more confused than ever about the exact nature of YouGov's methodological change. In his first clarification, Anthony Wells left the distinct impression that the only thing that had changed about the Scottish sampling was that they were sending out fewer invitations. But yesterday he suggested that they are now using Scotland-specific target figures, just as they would for full-scale Scottish polls. If that's true, I can't make any sense of the fact that SNP identifiers are still fairly obviously being downweighted according to Westminster-centric targets, rather than the political weighting being done by 2011 vote recall, as would happen in full-scale polls. It may be that the Scottish sample is now demographically representative in a way that it hasn't been before, but if so, that good work is being largely undone by distorted party ID weightings, and by the smaller number of respondents.
Towards the higher end again for populus:
ReplyDelete38% SNP
27% Lab
18% Con
8% Lib
5% UKIP
4% Green
SNP 4% of UK total.
SNP down-weight = 38%
Friday Populus sub-sample for Scotland:
ReplyDeleteSNP 38, Labour 27, Tories 18.
This is towards the higher end of SNP rating and leads for Populus, who showed some Labour leads in polls late last year.
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-01-2015_BPC.pdf
Level of SNP respondent down-weighting continues to increase in polls.
ReplyDeleteFor populus, was ~28% at the iref, now ~39% on average.
For yougov, was ~6% and now ~28% (assuming a proportional initial suppression where there are simply too many total Scots respondents).
The much higher values for populus down-weighting are of course due to its 2010 ID method and why it always shows some of the lowest SNP shares.
I may be wrong but the figures for the two main parties in the London sub-samples don't seem to be subject to anything remotely like the swings between SNP and Labour in the Scottish ones. The London sub-sample is a bit bigger but still tiny. If I'm right, any idea why this would be?
ReplyDelete@ James K & Scottish Skier,
ReplyDeleteSorta OT, but related to polling, (hope you don't mind James?)
I've been wondering about Jim Murphy hiring McTernan as part of his back- room staff.
Along with McDougal who is already employed by Dim Jim, they make up a big part of what was 'Project Fear' and are experts in this type of campaigning.
It is already the stated aim of Dim Jim, to 'attract' the older voters who voted Yes, back to Labour.
Since the BT campaign was able to manipulate this group enough to win the referendum, it's clear that Murphy feels he has the expertise and tools (the MSM) to work on this age group.
However my question is: has internal polling or sub sets shown that the latest shift to SNP for the general Election, coming from the over 60s, who perhaps feel let down by the non-delivery of the vow, or failure to protect the NHS that the Unionists promised?
If this is in fact the case then it may explain why Murphy is recruiting the cretins who visited 'Project Fear' on to Scotlands OAP's, during the referendum campaign.
Thoughts?
There is absolutely NOTHING, not one thing, that SLAB can do in terms of generating fear and anxiety that can come close to what was done in the last fortnight of Indyref. That level of State manipulation and the bluntness of such a naked Terror campaign was beyond anything this country has ever seen.
DeleteIf anyone survived that and still voted Yes, it matters not one jot what McTernan and Murphy do. McTernan's last client was delivered a gift by him - the gift of spending more time with her family.
Maybe Jim can receive the same good fortune.
"no brainer" McTernan.
DeleteThoughts?
ROFL! :-D
The thing that strikes me most obviously about McTernan is his Black is White attitude to people's faces when they know he's lying through his teeth. That Australian thing with Gillard, when it all blew up, he was spinning that it wasn't his teams (basically his) idea, it was all the magazine trying to catch out Gillard etc, etc.
DeleteThe man is a caricature, as if he want's to be the new Dr Who and thinks the best way is to be a pound shop Malcolm Tucker.
I think Jim Murphy is not very clever - 9 years at uni and no degree - I rest my case. Less clever people find it harder to adapt or find new ways of solving problems. Jim is doing the only thing he knows and that is Blairite, tactics. 'It worked for Project Fear, it worked for Blair it will work for me' He is not adapting.
ReplyDeleteSo instead of hiring for example 'Blair Jenkins' who would give him real isight into how to win the Yes voters back, he does what he knows and hires McDougall.
The older Labour/Yes demographic ended up voting No and still Yes got 45% which is a FPTP landslide for SNP. So keeping them with Labour won't stop a landslide. He needs to win the Labour 2010/SNP 2011/Yes voters back and to do that he needs to understand why these people voted Yes and it was not for the lies and spin politics that McTernan excells at
Off-topic, George Osborne has just said this:
ReplyDelete“If you are going to have the minor parties, you have got to have all the minor parties with a presence in Parliament who attract votes at elections.
“The Green Party did better than the Liberal Democrats at the last national election, for the European Parliament, and they have got one Member of Parliament.
“So we are just making a point that, if you are going to have all these parties, you have got to have them all.”
I'm not sure I agree with this analysis, but it's going to be a bit difficult for the Tories to oppose the SNP's inclusion now, isn't it?