The conventional wisdom about the impending Lib Dem meltdown in Scotland is that they'll cling on in at least two seats - Orkney & Shetland (because it's been a fortress for the party since time immemorial) and Ross, Skye & Lochaber (because of Charles Kennedy's personal vote). But it should be borne in mind that the 'Kennedy bonus' is already factored in to the Lib Dems' baseline vote in his constituency, so there's no reason to automatically assume the drop in the party's vote will be lower there than anywhere else.
Newsnight have recently introduced a regular prediction 'index' for the general election, using the same figures that appear on the Election Forecast website. I suspect that will prove rather awkward for the BBC, because it means they'll be openly acknowledging that the party they'd like to ban from the leaders' debates is on course to become the third largest party in the UK parliament, ahead of the Lib Dems and miles ahead of UKIP. But Election Forecast also produces predictions for individual constituencies, and is currently showing that Ross, Skye & Lochaber is the fourth most likely seat to be gained by the SNP, with a probability of 98%. Charles Kennedy is predicted to receive just 24% of the vote, compared to the SNP's 50%. That would represent an enormous 31% swing from Lib Dem to SNP since the 2010 election.
What's interesting about this is that the constituency predictions are seemingly not based on assumptions of a uniform national (or even regional) swing, but instead on unpublished YouGov subsample data at the constituency level. Admittedly, some of the other predictions don't really pass the smell test. Plaid Cymru are predicted to lose one of their three seats, whereas I think it's much more likely that they will hold what they have, and on a good night might regain either Ceredigion or Ynys Mon (or possibly even both). So it could be that the constituency sample in Kennedy's seat isn't representative - but the point is that it would have to be inaccurate by an absolutely huge margin for him to have a chance of hanging on.
He is a dead man walking. Invisible in the constituency (where I live), and only seen through a bi-annual post drop. His ongoing "health" problems are well known, and commented on more in sorrow than anger, and whilst Highland folk have been known to vote for people not policies, once you loose their respect you loose their vote. I also suspect that he will be tarred a little with the ant-Danny vote in the neighbouring constituency.
ReplyDeleteI've just had a look at the possible SNP gains: http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/SNP_seat_gains.html
ReplyDeleteSupposedly 1% behind the Lib Dems in the Northern Isles - that would be a shock.
It seems to be the realignment of Scottish politics that is occurring - which happened in Quebec in the 1980s and 1990s (from Left and Right to Sovereignist/Nationalist and Unionist camps) - with the site predicting SNP gains in Inverclyde, Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire.
Hopefully, the Ashcroft constituency polling will be released soon...
Still - a long way to go...
Glad to see your reference to the neighbouring constituency where I live.
ReplyDeleteYou can never underestimate the resilience of the Highland liberal, but I agree with you that there is something special going on, post indyref. Danny is desperately using his publicity budget and some dubious sponsership to boost his profile.
Remember that folk moved away from the Lib Dems in the H&I in a fairly spectacular way in the 2011 Holyrood elections. All mainland lib dem seats lost, and indeed Tavish and Liam were lucky that there were strong independents standing in both Orkney and Shetland that split the anti vote, or they could have lost their seats. The SNP came top of the Orkney list, and were only a few hundred votes away from topping the Shetland list.
ReplyDeleteIf Prof Curtice is right in saying that the difference between Holyrood and Westminster voting intentions has effectively gone in Scotland, the Lib Dems are in a very difficult position. There Highland Heartland vanished in 2011. The same may happen in 2015.
Based on the 2011 Election:
DeleteNorthern Isles (Total of Orkney and Shetland List Votes):
SNP - 32.0% (+9.6% on 2007)
LIB - 28.8% (-5.2%)
LAB - 9.8% (-2.4%)
CON - 8.4% (-3.6%)
GRN - 6.9% (+0.4%)
UKIP - 3.9% (+2.9%)
Others - 10.2% (-1.7%)
It's completely possible that the SNP could gain this seat in the Westminster parliament - it would still be a shock though...
In one word Hopefully.
ReplyDeleteAgreed
DeleteI too live in Charlie Kennedy's constituency. He seems to be practicing for the lead role in the invisible man. I got his 2 annual mailings, full of pictures but low on achievements.
ReplyDeleteThe claim that he has dealt with thousands of constituents problems as the only time he "dealt with" a problem for me he did not actually achieve anything. From what I hear, I am not the only one with that experience.
Is he making much of his opposition to the Coalition? I'd've thought he'd be wise to talk that up, especially with Osborne's bagman in the adjacent seat.
DeleteNo. And it wouldn't make any difference to me if he is. He has been our MP for a long time and has done next to nothing for us.
DeleteI can't work out why, with evidence since 2010, showing LibDems in Orkney and Shetland have supported a Con Government in privatising the English NHS and imposed tuition fees on English students, that they go on voting for a LibDem, while they have an 'original' NHS and no tuition fees.
ReplyDeletedon't underestimate Highland voters loyalty to the person -indeed the family ( Charlie's folks go back a long way in Lochaber as do mine) and the too Liberal tradition in the north .
ReplyDeleteseveral of my closest friends are Highlanders and among those who quietly voted No at the Referendum as their parents before them had always voted for old( pre Lib Dem) Liberals like Russell Johnston ( Highlands) and Jo Grimond ( Shetland)
Yes, I don't think people should underestimate, but the obvious question is...
DeleteWhat happened to that loyalty in 2011?
#SS. What happened was that voters saw that the SG had done a competant job and Ian Gray was a miserablist nomark with no policy ideas of his own and Tavish was roped in with the hopeless oppositionism of the LibDems and Labour. Generally, there was a sense that the LibDems were supposed to stand for constitutional issues and yet couldn't support the SNP in its policy to have an indyref - a completely nonsensical position.
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the european election polling figures for Scotland between January and May 2014. These polls consistently over read SNP support - putting it on an average of 38%, with eve of election polls predicting 43%! On the day, they got only 29% of the vote - 77% ofthe average level of support predicted by the polls. Assuming a similar over estimation this time puts the SNP in the low thirties. A huge improvement on their 2010 showing of just under 20% - but not quite enough to generate an SNP landslide and certainly not enough to unseat heavily dug in MPs like Charlie Kennedy.
ReplyDeleteThere's no reason to use the European elections, which had a turnout of roughly half of what we can expect in May, as a guide. In any case, the overestimation of the SNP's vote wasn't consistent across the firms - YouGov were much closer to the actual result.
DeleteAnd the other point is that the pollsters that were most inaccurate for the European elections have since changed their methodology (to weight by recalled referendum vote), so the results they're getting now aren't comparable anyway.
DeleteKennedy's is a tragic story. I don't believe he as leader would have gone into that coalition with Cameron or executed that U-turn on tuition fees. Indeed many of the positions he staked out, such as opposition to the Iraq war, were honourable.
ReplyDeleteHowever, his time has clearly passed in politics.
My constituency as well and I still hear the bleating about CK and DA working hard for the Highlands. They are quiet, however, when reminded that they both voted FOR austerity and local children are going hungry because of it. Sadly some fools will still vote for these buffoons for old times sake. I pity our communities who suffer these no marks!
ReplyDeleteLet me put my hands up and say I have know Charlie over 30 years and always liked him. I agree with Niall's analysis. I think it is a mistake to put him in the same basket as Danny Alexander, who has neither principle nor talent. He was over-promoted when he was doing publicity for the Cairngorm chairlift.
ReplyDeleteThe only people I know who recently voted Lib Dem (e.g. 2010) and still plan to are, well, Tories really. Just more socially liberal Tories.
ReplyDeleteI don't give much credit to 'They're well known so get a personal vote' thing. That can apply when the candidate's party hasn't betrayed all its principles. If Charles Kennedy was truly a man of principle and angry at the coalition with the Tories as much as past Lib voters are, he'd have left the party and if standing again, being do so as e.g. an independent.
We know that truly popular local candidates with principles can do this very successfully.
Ian Blackford has today been confirmed as the SNP candidate for this seat. He's a well known figure in the party and locally here in Skye and Lochalsh, where he played a prominant role in the Yes campaign. As if Charlie didn't have his troubles to seek he now has a formidable opponent on his hands.
ReplyDeleteTo disagree slightly with Tearlach - invisible that is until a recent very contrived attack in the local press on Scottish Govt over A82 funding; but we're not fools and can see this for the rather obvious pre-election gambit that it is, after months of silence.
ReplyDeleteSilence, except over the indyref of course. For me he was rather too enthusiastic in defending the benefits of Westminster Govt (personal benefits?) whereas other Highland Lib Dems took a more nuanced stance or as in the case of Michael Foxley took a principled stance to support Yes despite being against party policy.
I undertook a telephone survey recently clearly commissioned by the Lib Dems (obvious through the naïvely and amusingly positive wording of many of the questions), and told them I voted for CK in 2010 but would be voting SNP in 2015. There must be many like me.
And I'm actually a Scottish Green.......