Heaven only knows what the Guardian are doing releasing a poll on Boxing Day, but that appears to be what's just happened...
Scottish voting intentions for the 2015 UK general election (ICM) :
SNP 43%
Labour 26%
Conservatives 13%
UKIP 7%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Greens 4%
There doesn't seem to be any word on fieldwork dates yet, which of course are all-important. I'll update the Poll of Polls at some point, although let's not forget it's Boxing Day...
UPDATE : The fieldwork took place between the 16th and 18th of December, which means the poll is more than seven days out of date, and consequently I can't add it to the Poll of Polls. On a positive note, it was entirely conducted after Jim Murphy became Scottish Labour "leader", so this adds extra weight to the evidence from Survation that there was no immediate "Murphy bounce". Unlike Survation, though, there have been no other ICM polls since September to provide us with pre-Murphy baseline numbers.
I haven't been able to access the datasets properly yet (possibly because I'm on my mobile), but Anthony Wells has noted that without ICM's "spiral of silence" adjustment the SNP would have had a lead of 19%, almost identical to the lead they enjoyed in the recent YouGov poll. The adjustment basically takes a portion of Don't Knows and allocates them to the party they voted for in 2010. This is based on past evidence that undecideds are disproportionately likely to go back to the devil they know, but whether that general rule will hold true in these highly unusual circumstances is anyone's guess. Some of the undecideds who ICM have allocated to Labour will be people who since 2010 have voted for the SNP in the Holyrood landslide, and voted Yes in the independence referendum. Can Labour really be said to be the default choice for such people after all that?
I admire your work ethic, James.
ReplyDeleteThe poll also shows a majority want to scrap trident. And only 30% think that the Smith commission is lovely.
ReplyDeleteThe PB bigots led by Christina D seem to think it's still all to play for thanks to the arrival of their great hero. Jim/Skull/Spud/Skeletor Murphy. The torture supporting, Irish independence loving, Republican-Monarchist and soon to be former MP.
Meanwhile over in Cockring World.
ReplyDeleteSir Barney White-Spunner (or to give him his full Sunday name. Lieutenant General Sir Barnabas William Benjamin White-Spunner Knight Commander of the Order of the Bath Commander of the Order of the British Empire Officer of the Legion of Merit (United States) can't wait for EVEL because ... The Scots stand in the way of hunting.
What a lovely man. The posh thicko twat equivalent of the NRA tosspotts in the USofA.
Jim's bounce continues to not bounce.
ReplyDeleteLooks like our UKIPers might well do the SNP a wee favour. On average lost deposits galore and a wee helping hand to the independence cause.
ReplyDeleteJim's is, sure as hell, the flattest bounce in the history of bounces...
ReplyDeleteJim bounces like an egg bounces - not a lot!
DeleteFieldwork : 16th-18th December 2014
ReplyDeleteDec 2014 Guardian/ICM Scotland poll
A poached egg,has more bounce
ReplyDeleteThe editorial at The Guardian is worth reading just to see the editors there in a mouth-frothing rage at Scotland.
ReplyDelete"By breaking ICM’s data into four different categories of seat, Curtice reveals Labour’s decline is sharpest in those supposedly heartland seats where it previously trounced the SNP by more than 25 points.
ReplyDeleteWhereas Labour’s Scotland-wide vote drops by 16 points, it falls by 22 points in these constituencies while the SNP surges by 26. That combination is sufficient to wipe out majorities that were always assumed to be impregnable"
Curtice cautions that the polling samples are small for some categories of seat, but nonetheless believes there is enough evidence to conclude that the SNP is “on the march in heartland Labour seats, and – if anything – to a greater extent than elsewhere”
I wonder if the SNP will be tempted to spend big for the general election. With the surge in membership, and a few large donations, they could afford to run a high profile campaign (the candidates seem to be there if chosen next month, and the activists numbers should be high if motivated in the right way).
ReplyDeleteI hope they choose to do so as this really looks like it could be a landmark election in Scotland. They may be tempted to play it safe with the 2016 election only a year after the GE. However, steamrolling through Labour heartland seats would massively boost momentum for Holyrood. If I was in the SNP leadership I would put caution to one side, and really pull out all the stops in terms of spending for the general election. SLAB have never looked more vulnerable. Does anyone have any inkling into the SNP's plans in terms of the level of spending for the general election?
Is Boxing Day a good day to bury bad news?
ReplyDeleteIsn't a Friday Boxing Day - part of a four day weekend - just perfect for burying bad news. The there is the snow.
ReplyDeleteJust exactly how much coverage has this poll had on the BBC? I confine most of my listening to checking out what the latest propaganda line is. This poll has not been mentioned.
BBC hardly ever cover polls by other media outlets, unless they are newsworthy in themselves (like the YouGov 51-49 poll in the referendum). They also rarely commission polls themselves.
DeleteThis poll isn't really newsworthy in the sense that it just confirms the existing pattern.
I saw it covered on BBC as part of a newspaper roundup, not long before midnight. It was on the front page of the Guardian so they could hardly avoid it.
Delete(I've given up watching TV but I'm staying with friends in England. We'd just got back to Yorkshire from Leicestershire, having driven at 25 mph up the M1 for about five hours.)
More of a spud thud than, a Murphy bounce.
ReplyDeleteHave you heard about Craig Murray being banned as a candidate?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.craigmurray.org.uk
DeleteI'm guessing he was banned because of his potentially controversial history and comments about no voters ect rather than his stance on the bedroom tax.
I would think so. I commented more or less that point of view on Wings a couple of weeks ago, and got torn limb from limb for my pains. I think the selection committee made the right decision though. His intemperate reaction tends to confirm it.
Delete