The Holyrood figures from last week's astounding Ipsos-Mori poll have been belatedly released, and if you thought there was some kind of law of physics that would prevent the SNP's lead for Holyrood being even bigger than their humongous 29-point Westminster lead, you were wrong.
Holyrood constituency vote :
SNP 57%
Labour 23%
Conservatives 8%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Greens 4%
UKIP 1%
Holyrood list vote :
SNP 50%
Labour 23%
Greens 10%
Conservatives 8%
Liberal Democrats 6%
UKIP 1%
SSP 1%
So it appears that the traditional differential between Westminster and Holyrood voting remains in place, but simply with the SNP operating at a much higher level than before. That said, the SNP's lead on the list is actually slightly smaller than their Westminster lead, probably because a chunk of their support is drifting to the Greens (and to a much lesser extent to the SSP) on that ballot. Of course, at the 2011 election, it was on the list vote that the SNP were significantly underestimated in the polls, with people proving much more likely to vote for the same party twice when they were actually faced with a real ballot paper.
One little problem with this poll is that the Greens are on 4% on the constituency ballot, even though on past form the party is likely to sit out most constituency contests altogether. So it's interesting to ponder where those votes would really go. Even if they broke 50/50 between the SNP and other parties, that would suggest a true SNP figure of 59%.
As noted last week, this poll was conducted between the 22nd and 29th of October, which means it spans three distinct periods - the three days prior to Johann Lamont resigning, a brief period when the media were claiming that either Gordon Brown or Jim Murphy might be taking over, and then a longer period when it was clear that Jim Murphy was the sole frontrunner. So a decent chunk of the respondents to this poll were giving the SNP an enormous lead in the full knowledge that Murphy was the Labour leader-in-waiting they were probably rejecting.
By the way, am I the only person who is dumbfounded that Murphy has given a huge hostage to fortune by repeatedly claiming that Labour will hold every single one of their Scottish seats at next year's UK general election? He's even taken personal responsibility for that prediction by stating that he knows how to make it happen. Now I do appreciate that there are plenty of pessimists/realists about the SNP's prospects of holding on to their current lead, but from Labour's point of view you'd still have to be a super-optimist not to think you're in major trouble in at least a handful of particularly vulnerable seats, such as Falkirk and Ochil & South Perthshire.
Not that it will be at all funny to see Murphy having his words played back to him next May, or anything like that.
Beats that Ashcroft crosstab anyway.
ReplyDeleteI imagine Labour will get a short term boost from a new leader, but as long as they are proposing Devo-Nano, their problems will remain.
ReplyDeleteIt's one thing to campaign with the Tories, but betraying Scots on the promises of major powers or federalism will turn out to be a bigger mistake.
nearly two years away,what's it matter?
ReplyDelete@Water.
ReplyDeleteAsk the Labour party; they seem in a bit of a tizz about the polls at the moment. Even stabbed their 'Branch Office' ((c) Scottish Labour) Leader in the back over them, forcing her to resign.
If my workmates are anything to go by, i'm not really surprised at these polls. I work with ex Labour party members and voters, and there is a lot of anger out there.
ReplyDeleteFolk I know and work with feel cheated by the Indy result, as we know of hardly any No voters.
I live in the Independent Republic of Dundee though. :-)
Am I write in saying this is the same poll, and therefore the same sample, as the unusually high Westminster VIs released by STV the other day. Might it not be the case that there's a particularly high number of SNP voters in the sample? There doesn't seem to be any weighting by previous voting.
ReplyDelete@anon.
ReplyDeleteMy understanding is that the poll was run twice as MORI were puzzled by the first result. They got the same when they took a new sample.
To be honest, looks right compared to Yougov (SNP 46%). Yougov were getting Labour neck and neck with the SNP until recently. At the same time, MORI had the SNP with a clear lead, as did all the other polls.
Likely a tad on the high side of MoE though.
I found that quite a strange remark from Tom Bradby at the time. They did the poll twice (presumably without charging twice) and got the same result? What, the exact same result for every party? What are the odds of that?
DeleteI understood that they didn't do a full 1000, but another large sample and got something very similar ('same' in that sense).
DeleteI can understand why - the result looks nuts initially. STV would be - are you sure?
In reality it's not necessarily though.
SNP have had 55% sat ratings in MORI regularly for years. Sometimes near 60%. If folk have had enough of the unionists and want to push the devo max or indy issue...
As I said, likely on the high side but not outwith the bounds of possibility.
Put those numbers into the ScotlandVotes predictor. If Holyrood was FPTP, SNP would get 71 seats, Tories 1 and LibDem 1. Labour get 0. Unbelievable Jeff!
Deleteeven better boab, the snp could afford to ask its supporters to vote green or ssp in the list seat and labour would be reduced to 12 msps becoming the 4th party in holyrood, i hear its cold way up there at the back of the auditorium murphy, btw, you would be allowed to ask about 2 questions to nicola.........each year, lol
Deletekeaton
DeleteProbably quite high, as long as the sample size is high. The term "Margin Of Error" is a bit of a misnomer. I find it easier to think in terms of probability, e.g. 95%. The chances of a 95% probable random event occurring twice in a row are 90.25%, so still very likely! Add to that percentages being rounded, and it's probably much higher for the lower percentages such as the LibDems.
When I can afford to retire I must look out those stats books and notes ...
No way on earth that this result could be replicated in the election - it is as Johann would say 'astonishing'! Would give the SNP/Green more than 2/3 of the seats - you'd have to have a referendum even without a manifesto commitment with that sort of result!
ReplyDeleteI am astonished.
ReplyDeleteWhat the heck is going on in the psyche of 'No' voters?
ReplyDeleteYou would need a heart of stone not to laugh at the publication of these polls, after the spectacle of Murphy, and the shameless MSM, particularly the BBC's, promotion of him as leader of SLAB. The guy is a shameless careerist, an uber neo-liberal fanatic, a vicious backstabber, who is pro-war, pro- tuition fees, pro-anything that can be defined as anti progressive politics.
ReplyDelete@muttley
ReplyDeleteMurphy doesn't have any politics. He's not right, not left, not pro-trident, not anti-trident. He doesn't support the bedroom tax nor oppose it. These things mean nothing to him.
He's pro-Murphy. That's it.
A Blairite careerist. Sheesh at least a proper Tory has ideology. Murphy doesn't even have that. He's a shell. He'll be whatever you want him to be if it gains a few feet on the greasy poll. Just like Blair.
As I said previously, and I'm sure everyone here knows anyway, whatever the 2015 GE result the scottish election in 2016 is quite obviously going to be where 'scottish' labour find themselves under the greatest and most intense pressure they've ever known.
ReplyDeleteHow could it be otherwise?
When you have 30-40% of labour voters voting for independence they are hardly going to approach the scottish elections with enthusiasm for a Labour party that were cheek to jowl with the tories at the Indyref.
You add to that the astonishing prospect of a westminster MP and little Ed and London Labour's placeman Murphy becoming leader (straight after their previous leader Lamont pointed out the cold hard reality of 'scottish' Labour being a London Labour branch office) and you have the circumstances to create a perfect storm come the 2016 scottish elections.
As muttley says the hilariously blatant westminster bubble media and tory support for Murphy certainly doesn't seem to be halting the amazingly good polling for the SNP just now. Quite the reverse. Sure, the polls will almost certainly tighten from between now and 2015/2016 but for right now they are showing a level of support that will enthuse the colossal SNP membership while highlighting just how much of a poison chalice Lamont left. It also goes without saying that polling as good as we've had lately can drop quite a bit and we would still be doing fantastically well.
No way these polls can be spun as anything other than a complete catastrophe for little Ed, Murphy and the London Labour branch office because they self-evidently are.
This poll is fantastic, but I'm actually most surprised and delighted by the SSP support. I mean, jesus, they got on the poll. Maybe they'll overtake UKIP at some point soon.
ReplyDeleteYeah its the most tragic aspect of the poll. Of the 60,000 plus New SNP member and a large proportion of yes voters, which party best represent there hope and aspiration for radically different more socially just Scotland? I would suggest the SSP or greens wins over SNP. A living wage, land reform, land value taxation, public transport and cycle network over new roads and bridges, community owned renewable energy. public ownership of utilities and transport infrastructure,
Delete"Yeah its the most tragic aspect of the poll."
DeleteLOL
Tragic that the SSP could overtake the bunch of kipper racists?? Hardly. Hilarious and well deserved.
Suggest away chum but you can be certain we won't be turning on either of them here even if some fuckwit trolls wished otherwise.
was tragic that they polled just 1%
DeleteI don't understand why people are saying it's tragic. Prior to the referendum the SSP were a virtually dead irrelevance. Tommy literally killed them - they went from several seats in parliament to absolutely rock bottom polling. The fact that the SSP have even gotten onto this poll is an indication that they're doing better and actually rivaling UKIP - considering the blanket media coverage UKIP have gotten in Scotland thanks to the BBC and the absolute dearth of coverage SSP have received you can see how much of an achievement this is.
DeleteI am heartened by it, I really am. When you understand just how awful their position was before the referendum and before even this poll you can see that this is great news for the party and we can be hopeful that they'll overtake UKIP in the future, becoming the fifth party of Scotland.
Would it be fair to say that the "vote one way for Westminster, another way for Holyrood" tendency looks to be a thing of the past? Seems folk are finally getting the message that if you want politicians that stand up for Scotland, you have to vote for people who take their orders from Edinburgh, not London.
ReplyDeleteI know how to hold every seat too! Fraudulent postal votes and corrupt election officials combined with the BBC Scotophobes department.
ReplyDeleteJust hope James keeps banging on about the TV debates, which threaten to kill our momentum stone dead.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the Green constituency vote. On past form, they won't be standing candidates in individual constituencies. However, given the rise in membership (and presumably funds), if I was a Green I would be disappointed if the party didn't stand at least ten candidates.
ReplyDeleteSurely the Green Party's aim is to become a viable choice at all level of governments, and although they might not be placed to win any seats, I imagine they'd be comfortably 3rd place (if not 2nd) in seats such as Edinburgh Central and Glasgow Kelvin. They seem to have a healthy Highland support too, which could potentially see them steal much of what's left of the Lib Dems, and stand them in good stead for 2019.
Are the figures not very high because the sheer amount of no voters that dont normally vote arent included? Correct me if I am wrong, but the no side had a higher number of non voters?
ReplyDeleteOr is that a mute point as the turnout will be what it normally is?
Murphy (and his mouthpiece McTernan) go further than Labour holding their existing WM seats. They want Labour to *gain* Scottish seats next May, presumably from the Lib Dems (e.g. the seats held by Danny Alexander and Jo Swinson). If the pattern of movement was the same in Scotland as in England post-2010 that would be plausible, but it's not. The relative weakness of UKIP being one obvious example.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, it's less implausible that they would gain one or both of those seats (probably East Dunbartonshire is the more likely of the two) than that they would hold every single one that they currently have.
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