tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2351715340688398127..comments2024-03-29T01:33:01.670+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Now this one's beyond belief : SNP lead by 34% in new Holyrood poll from Ipsos-MoriJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55525387961599886422014-11-05T16:27:44.242+00:002014-11-05T16:27:44.242+00:00I don't understand why people are saying it...I don't understand why people are saying it's tragic. Prior to the referendum the SSP were a virtually dead irrelevance. Tommy literally killed them - they went from several seats in parliament to absolutely rock bottom polling. The fact that the SSP have even gotten onto this poll is an indication that they're doing better and actually rivaling UKIP - considering the blanket media coverage UKIP have gotten in Scotland thanks to the BBC and the absolute dearth of coverage SSP have received you can see how much of an achievement this is.<br /><br />I am heartened by it, I really am. When you understand just how awful their position was before the referendum and before even this poll you can see that this is great news for the party and we can be hopeful that they'll overtake UKIP in the future, becoming the fifth party of Scotland. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13099371017982725962014-11-05T14:01:12.499+00:002014-11-05T14:01:12.499+00:00To be fair, it's less implausible that they wo...To be fair, it's less implausible that they would gain one or both of those seats (probably East Dunbartonshire is the more likely of the two) than that they would hold every single one that they currently have.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52840214928206166432014-11-05T12:21:59.988+00:002014-11-05T12:21:59.988+00:00Murphy (and his mouthpiece McTernan) go further th...Murphy (and his mouthpiece McTernan) go further than Labour holding their existing WM seats. They want Labour to *gain* Scottish seats next May, presumably from the Lib Dems (e.g. the seats held by Danny Alexander and Jo Swinson). If the pattern of movement was the same in Scotland as in England post-2010 that would be plausible, but it's not. The relative weakness of UKIP being one obvious example.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24618966278307442702014-11-05T09:42:54.293+00:002014-11-05T09:42:54.293+00:00was tragic that they polled just 1%was tragic that they polled just 1%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81658318166421817532014-11-05T08:12:51.447+00:002014-11-05T08:12:51.447+00:00"Yeah its the most tragic aspect of the poll....<i>"Yeah its the most tragic aspect of the poll."</i><br /><br />LOL<br /><br />Tragic that the SSP could overtake the bunch of kipper racists?? Hardly. Hilarious and well deserved.<br /><br />Suggest away chum but you can be certain we won't be turning on either of them here even if some fuckwit trolls wished otherwise.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22438616969535920702014-11-05T06:06:13.448+00:002014-11-05T06:06:13.448+00:00Are the figures not very high because the sheer am...Are the figures not very high because the sheer amount of no voters that dont normally vote arent included? Correct me if I am wrong, but the no side had a higher number of non voters? <br /><br />Or is that a mute point as the turnout will be what it normally is?<br /><br />chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91716010594925111312014-11-05T01:56:16.503+00:002014-11-05T01:56:16.503+00:00Regarding the Green constituency vote. On past for...Regarding the Green constituency vote. On past form, they won't be standing candidates in individual constituencies. However, given the rise in membership (and presumably funds), if I was a Green I would be disappointed if the party didn't stand at least ten candidates.<br /><br />Surely the Green Party's aim is to become a viable choice at all level of governments, and although they might not be placed to win any seats, I imagine they'd be comfortably 3rd place (if not 2nd) in seats such as Edinburgh Central and Glasgow Kelvin. They seem to have a healthy Highland support too, which could potentially see them steal much of what's left of the Lib Dems, and stand them in good stead for 2019.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15454440240091115652014-11-05T01:21:52.360+00:002014-11-05T01:21:52.360+00:00Yeah its the most tragic aspect of the poll. Of t...Yeah its the most tragic aspect of the poll. Of the 60,000 plus New SNP member and a large proportion of yes voters, which party best represent there hope and aspiration for radically different more socially just Scotland? I would suggest the SSP or greens wins over SNP. A living wage, land reform, land value taxation, public transport and cycle network over new roads and bridges, community owned renewable energy. public ownership of utilities and transport infrastructure, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52574084803592136312014-11-05T00:29:20.820+00:002014-11-05T00:29:20.820+00:00Just hope James keeps banging on about the TV deba...Just hope James keeps banging on about the TV debates, which threaten to kill our momentum stone dead. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39229068171266517342014-11-04T23:39:21.996+00:002014-11-04T23:39:21.996+00:00I know how to hold every seat too! Fraudulent po...I know how to hold every seat too! Fraudulent postal votes and corrupt election officials combined with the BBC Scotophobes department.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16173928710709968272014-11-04T23:34:59.671+00:002014-11-04T23:34:59.671+00:00Would it be fair to say that the "vote one wa...Would it be fair to say that the "vote one way for Westminster, another way for Holyrood" tendency looks to be a thing of the past? Seems folk are finally getting the message that if you want politicians that stand up for Scotland, you have to vote for people who take their orders from Edinburgh, not London.Doug Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15017218581660887134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87247566331790834002014-11-04T23:25:45.133+00:002014-11-04T23:25:45.133+00:00This poll is fantastic, but I'm actually most ...This poll is fantastic, but I'm actually most surprised and delighted by the SSP support. I mean, jesus, they got on the poll. Maybe they'll overtake UKIP at some point soon. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24279058498464437552014-11-04T23:12:00.547+00:002014-11-04T23:12:00.547+00:00As I said previously, and I'm sure everyone he...As I said previously, and I'm sure everyone here knows anyway, whatever the 2015 GE result the scottish election in 2016 is quite obviously going to be where 'scottish' labour find themselves under the greatest and most intense pressure they've ever known.<br /><br />How could it be otherwise?<br /><br />When you have 30-40% of labour voters voting for independence they are hardly going to approach the scottish elections with enthusiasm for a Labour party that were cheek to jowl with the tories at the Indyref.<br /><br />You add to that the astonishing prospect of a westminster MP and little Ed and London Labour's placeman Murphy becoming leader (straight after their previous leader Lamont pointed out the cold hard reality of 'scottish' Labour being a London Labour branch office) and you have the circumstances to create a perfect storm come the 2016 scottish elections.<br /><br />As muttley says the hilariously blatant westminster bubble media and tory support for Murphy certainly doesn't seem to be halting the amazingly good polling for the SNP just now. Quite the reverse. Sure, the polls will almost certainly tighten from between now and 2015/2016 but for right now they are showing a level of support that will enthuse the colossal SNP membership while highlighting just how much of a poison chalice Lamont left. It also goes without saying that polling as good as we've had lately can drop quite a bit and we would still be doing fantastically well.<br /><br />No way these polls can be spun as anything other than a complete catastrophe for little Ed, Murphy and the London Labour branch office because they self-evidently are.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7956218114177268312014-11-04T23:04:53.798+00:002014-11-04T23:04:53.798+00:00@muttley
Murphy doesn't have any politics. He...@muttley<br /><br />Murphy doesn't have any politics. He's not right, not left, not pro-trident, not anti-trident. He doesn't support the bedroom tax nor oppose it. These things mean nothing to him.<br /><br />He's pro-Murphy. That's it.<br /><br />A Blairite careerist. Sheesh at least a proper Tory has ideology. Murphy doesn't even have that. He's a shell. He'll be whatever you want him to be if it gains a few feet on the greasy poll. Just like Blair. <br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28643620445624832632014-11-04T22:46:06.232+00:002014-11-04T22:46:06.232+00:00You would need a heart of stone not to laugh at th...You would need a heart of stone not to laugh at the publication of these polls, after the spectacle of Murphy, and the shameless MSM, particularly the BBC's, promotion of him as leader of SLAB. The guy is a shameless careerist, an uber neo-liberal fanatic, a vicious backstabber, who is pro-war, pro- tuition fees, pro-anything that can be defined as anti progressive politics. muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74606041315837540702014-11-04T22:43:30.293+00:002014-11-04T22:43:30.293+00:00What the heck is going on in the psyche of 'No...What the heck is going on in the psyche of 'No' voters?douglas clarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11422060678908705962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39977643828802826512014-11-04T22:10:08.045+00:002014-11-04T22:10:08.045+00:00keaton
Probably quite high, as long as the sample ...keaton<br />Probably quite high, as long as the sample size is high. The term "Margin Of Error" is a bit of a misnomer. I find it easier to think in terms of probability, e.g. 95%. The chances of a 95% probable random event occurring twice in a row are 90.25%, so still very likely! Add to that percentages being rounded, and it's probably much higher for the lower percentages such as the LibDems.<br><br />When I can afford to retire I must look out those stats books and notes ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90621913664714027742014-11-04T21:14:24.649+00:002014-11-04T21:14:24.649+00:00even better boab, the snp could afford to ask its ...even better boab, the snp could afford to ask its supporters to vote green or ssp in the list seat and labour would be reduced to 12 msps becoming the 4th party in holyrood, i hear its cold way up there at the back of the auditorium murphy, btw, you would be allowed to ask about 2 questions to nicola.........each year, lolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15336012493567092882014-11-04T20:55:24.884+00:002014-11-04T20:55:24.884+00:00I am astonished.I am astonished.Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85685804757284242742014-11-04T20:13:59.740+00:002014-11-04T20:13:59.740+00:00Put those numbers into the ScotlandVotes predictor...Put those numbers into the ScotlandVotes predictor. If Holyrood was FPTP, SNP would get 71 seats, Tories 1 and LibDem 1. Labour get 0. Unbelievable Jeff!Boabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1348274550757309522014-11-04T19:56:46.675+00:002014-11-04T19:56:46.675+00:00I understood that they didn't do a full 1000, ...I understood that they didn't do a full 1000, but another large sample and got something very similar ('same' in that sense). <br /><br />I can understand why - the result looks nuts initially. STV would be - are you sure?<br /><br />In reality it's not necessarily though.<br /><br />SNP have had 55% sat ratings in MORI regularly for years. Sometimes near 60%. If folk have had enough of the unionists and want to push the devo max or indy issue...<br /><br />As I said, likely on the high side but not outwith the bounds of possibility.<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68051367500857864102014-11-04T19:50:11.465+00:002014-11-04T19:50:11.465+00:00I found that quite a strange remark from Tom Bradb...I found that quite a strange remark from Tom Bradby at the time. They did the poll twice (presumably without charging twice) and got the same result? What, the exact same result for every party? What are the odds of that?keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79955564868421660642014-11-04T19:41:21.602+00:002014-11-04T19:41:21.602+00:00No way on earth that this result could be replicat...No way on earth that this result could be replicated in the election - it is as Johann would say 'astonishing'! Would give the SNP/Green more than 2/3 of the seats - you'd have to have a referendum even without a manifesto commitment with that sort of result!Boabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9081027024378036412014-11-04T19:38:38.242+00:002014-11-04T19:38:38.242+00:00@anon.
My understanding is that the poll was run ...@anon.<br /><br />My understanding is that the poll was run twice as MORI were puzzled by the first result. They got the same when they took a new sample.<br /><br />To be honest, looks right compared to Yougov (SNP 46%). Yougov were getting Labour neck and neck with the SNP until recently. At the same time, MORI had the SNP with a clear lead, as did all the other polls.<br /><br />Likely a tad on the high side of MoE though. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20056384192524991352014-11-04T19:30:45.052+00:002014-11-04T19:30:45.052+00:00Am I write in saying this is the same poll, and th...Am I write in saying this is the same poll, and therefore the same sample, as the unusually high Westminster VIs released by STV the other day. Might it not be the case that there's a particularly high number of SNP voters in the sample? There doesn't seem to be any weighting by previous voting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com