For the first time, we have the opportunity to make a direct comparison between two full-scale post-referendum polls from the same company, helping us to judge whether there has been any movement in opinion over the last few weeks. On the face of it, the message from the new Panelbase poll commissioned by Wings Over Scotland couldn't be much clearer -
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election :
SNP 45% (+11)
Labour 28% (-4)
Conservatives 15% (-3)
UKIP 7% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 3% (-2)
However, the percentage changes listed above are only meaningful if Panelbase have stuck with the bizarre decision they made last time to weight their Westminster results - and only their Westminster results - by 2010 past vote recall, which we know tends to be less reliable than 2011 recall. That led to people who recalled voting SNP being downweighted by an extreme amount. The fact that the new poll has reported such a huge swing suggests to me that the methodology may well have been (very sensibly) changed, and that will presumably become clear when the datasets are released.
[UPDATE : RevStu has let me know that the figures were weighted by 2011 vote recall, so the percentage changes are not meaningful. This does of course illustrate how the last Panelbase poll was a hell of a lot better for the SNP than it appeared at first glance.]
These numbers are very strikingly in line with the YouGov poll which merely showed a very large SNP lead, rather than the Ipsos-Mori poll which showed a bloody enormous SNP lead. However, as Panelbase and YouGov are both online pollsters and Ipsos-Mori is a telephone pollster, it's still too early to conclude that the Ipsos-Mori poll must be an outlier. The other thing that sets Ipsos-Mori apart is that they're the only firm that don't weight by past vote recall at all.
The other headline finding from the poll that has been released so far is on the subject of independence -
Knowing what you know now, if the independence referendum was tomorrow how would you vote?
Yes 51% (+6)
No 49% (-6)
(Percentage changes are from the actual referendum result.)
This is the second published post-referendum poll to ask about independence, and both have shown a Yes lead. However, I'm sure Professor Curtice will be making the point that this poll differs from the YouGov poll in that it doesn't ask an identical question to the pre-referendum polls, and therefore the results can't be considered directly comparable. Nevertheless, this is only the second published Panelbase poll in history to show a majority for independence (the previous one was in September of last year, and ended up being largely discounted because of an unusual question sequence).