Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Reading the Inverclyde runes

Returning briefly to the subject of PoliticalBetting.com, after my 'conversation' with Plato concluded yesterday I spotted this tantalising nugget of on-the-ground intelligence from Marcia...

"The soundings from Inverclyde are more in tune with the movement in Glasgow East rather than Glasgow North East or Glenrothes. Still over a week to go. Getting the vote out on the day will be key as a low turnout is expect."

In a way I was surprised to hear that, but I don't really know why - after all, there's such a feel-good factor about the SNP at present, and Labour are hobbled by being between leaders at Holyrood, Ed Miliband's travails at Westminster, and their alliance with the Tories at local level. It's a bit difficult to claim to be "protecting Inverclyde from the Tories" if you demonstrably prefer to share power with them than with any other party! And I also never really bought into the idea that the "Westminster frame" of this election would by definition handicap the SNP - that may be the case in a general election, but in by-elections the government of the UK isn't at stake. Glasgow East was an out-and-out Scottish contest, and if anything Glenrothes turned into a referendum on the SNP/Lib Dem-run Fife Council.

All the same, Glasgow East-style canvass returns don't necessarily point towards outright victory - the nominal swing required for the SNP is gargantuan. And the Edwin Morgan bequest (if confirmed) won't come in time to help out, so if by any chance you have a tenner burning your pocket, you could always put it to good use by going here!

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