Thursday, November 5, 2009

YouGov subsample : Labour slip to 32%

Hot on the heels of the YouGov poll I mentioned in my last post is another one this evening for Channel 4. There is, rather annoyingly, no breakdown of the figures for the 'others', so given the typically wild fluctuations in the total support for the minor parties in Scotland, there's little point speculating on how big a chunk of the 32% 'others' figure in the Scottish subsample is held by the SNP. Here are the full figures -

Others 32% (-5)
Labour 32% (-1)
Conservatives 19% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+8)

Clearly the big winners are the Liberal Democrats, while the Tories continue to poll extraordinarily badly for a party that is supposedly just a few months away from returning to power at Westminster. It's worth remembering that no winning party in a Westminster general election has ever polled worse than 24% in Scotland.

The main purpose of the poll was to canvass opinion on the Afghanistan war, and on that issue Scotland appears to be slightly more sceptical than the rest of the UK - by a margin of 39% to 32% Scottish respondents favoured an immediate withdrawal of British forces.


  1. Hmm, I make it the SNP are on 24%. In yesterday's poll the others were on 8% so i just subtracted 8 from 32 in this poll. Not scientific but hey its only a sub poll.

  2. James, EZIO would be interested to hear your view on the Glasgow NE by election debate on STV earlier, if you saw it!

    David Kerr = FULL OF WIN
    Wullie Bain = LOL

  3. Unfortunately I had to pop out, so I missed almost the whole thing apart from the coin-throwing incident at the start. I'm not sure the SNP candidate should really be giving the Labour campaign charity donations, even if it is only £2!

  4. Let EZIO just say, if he could stick £10 on David Kerr being the SNP leader one day, he would!

    Kerr = FULL OF WIN

  5. Yes, he's a very impressive candidate, although when the moment comes there'll also be Sturgeon and maybe Angus Robertson to choose from. They're all roughly the same age.

    I'm not surprised to hear that Bain wasn't up to much, although it's been fascinating to see how he's been running almost as an anti-New Labour candidate. Whether that's just expediency to get himself over the winning line I don't know.

  6. Ezio, in His wisdom, does get the impression that Bain is saying what he needs to say. The very fact that he was a senior member of a constituency Labour Party that shoved Martin Sr and Jr into power shows the man has no principals.

    Unfortunately, he'll probably win though.

  7. It's hard to take this poll seriously for Scotland elections, given the PR system and the lack of SNP clarity. I think the SNP are continuing to poll well for a mid-term government. But it's still fairly tight in a 4-way split - all depends how the voting density pans out. Until the SNP makes way in the central belt they can't be a real majority party.