Friday, June 5, 2009

SNP surge further ahead in YouGov sub-sample

For the fifth time in a row, a YouGov sub-sample has shown an SNP lead in Westminster voting intention. As with the last one, the findings can be taken with a rare degree of seriousness, given that the unweighted Scottish sample size is an unusually healthy 410. Here are the full figures -

SNP 33% (+4)
Labour 25% (-1)
Conservatives 18% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Others 8% (-7)

The European Parliament voting intention figures are as follows -

SNP 31% (+2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+4)
Conservatives 14% (+1)
Others 16% (-4)

Is it 'game over' for Scottish Labour on Sunday evening, then? Well, I think I'll try to learn from AM2's folly in using those words and say it's still too early to judge. One cautionary note is that Labour have won a by-election in Glasgow this evening fairly comfortably (nominally it was in fact a gain from the SNP under the vagaries of the electoral system). However, the odds now look heavily in favour of the SNP at least winning the Scottish popular vote for the first time in a European election.


  1. Hey James, you just love these sub samples

    Let wait for the results, but if they are remotely clsoe to ths ill be happy...maybe start taking thes sub seriously!

    One thing i've learned is Labour is resiliant in Scotland...look at these three by elctions last nite for starters. And could they have been fought in imaginably worse circumstances? It is that payroll...and folk that are paid tend to vote, so kind of boosted by the generally low turnout

  2. Alan, in spite of the way they've been reported (including by me in the post above!), the by-elections yesterday were actually extremely poor for Labour. In Drumchapel/Anniesland there was a swing of over 9% from Labour to SNP, in the North Lanarkshire seat there was a swing in the same direction of just under 6%. I haven't worked out the swing in Bishopbriggs South yet, but on first glance it's again pretty clear there's been some kind of swing from Labour to SNP. So all that bodes extremely well for the SNP at the Euro elections, unless of course there's a significant loss of support through the back door to the minor parties (which is perfectly possible).

  3. I've very reluctantly barred a comment by "Scottish Unionist" on this thread. Call me overly suspicious, but I'm not sure the Alpha Male we all know and love would have repeatedly apologised for his existence and then supplied his name and address at the end. Anyway, here is the post, minus the 'identifying information' -

    Dear All

    I wish to apologise wholeheartedly for the offence that I have caused with my banal outbursts, general ineptitude and sneering stupidity.

    My family have found out about my use of these forums and following a long and hard discussion with them, I now realise that I was wrong and tragically misguided in my nonsensical attacks. I wholeheartedly wish to convey my apologies and heartfelt gratitude to those that ridiculed my rude outpourings.

    For they alone have seen fit to rightly rubbish me.

    Over the past few years I have attacked any supporter of Scotland and Scottish Self Determination. I realise now that the comments that I posted were poorly judged, often unfounded, certainly without substance and quite frankly below what is expected of a Scotsman / Labour Party employee.

    I am a contemptible swine of the lowest order, a liar, propagandist and pedlar of misinformation; I throw myself at your feet for forgiveness.

    I deserve a public flogging.

  4. He's commented the same on lots of Scottish blogs James. I'm thinking to remove his rubbish but I shan't mention it in any post - wouldn't want him to feel he deserves it.

  5. Thank you James. It wasn't me.