Stonehaven REVELATION as "most accurate pollster" puts the SNP on course for an overall majority as Labour slump to FOURTH

To be clear, the bit about "most accurate pollster" is Stonehaven's own self-description, but I always put that in because it upsets our resident unionist troll KC.  

It was Stonehaven who, a few months ago, first started the trend of MRP polls showing an SNP overall majority, and I must admit I was surprised that YouGov of all companies ended up following their example.  Remember, however, that Stonehaven have stated that they factor tactical voting into their headline projections, and once again they've found that the SNP benefit more from tactical voting than any other party.  That seems intuitively implausible, so if there's any health warning to be put on these numbers, that would be it.

Seats projection (Stonehaven MRP):

SNP 66

Reform UK 21

Greens 14

Labour 13

Liberal Democrats 8

Conservatives 7

SNP: 66 seats

ALL OTHER PARTIES: 63 seats

SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS

PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 80 seats

ANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES 49 seats

 

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS

More details and analysis to follow shortly...

"Stew-pid. Just Stew-pid." The advice that controversial blogger "Stew" would have given in a variety of dangerous historical situations

The controversial Somerset-based blogger "Stew" seems to have had a screw loose ever since Kezia Dugdale psychologically damaged him by defeating his vanity libel case - a drubbing that not only broke him reputationally but is also assumed to have cost him tens of thousands of pounds of crowdfunded money.  But his loopy advice yesterday to vote for unionist parties "for the longterm benefit of the independence movement" is a new low, and he has understandably been relentlessly mocked for it.  For my own tribute to dear old Stewie on this very special occasion, I thought I'd take a look at the sage advice he would doubtlessly impart in a variety of historical situations if someone gave him a time machine.

Stew's advice to Labour supporters in 1979: "Look here, lads, your party is a bit tired.  Tell you what, why not vote for Mrs Thatcher for the longterm benefit of Labour?  It's highly unlikely she'll make any significant changes to the economic model, or sell off any state assets, or gut the trade union movement or anything like that.  Trust me, she'll be a four-year wonder and then you'll be straight back in power all revitalised and socialist.  You won't regret it."

Stew's advice to the ancient Britons in the 5th Century AD: "Look here, guys, you're getting raided an awful lot by the Picts and the Scots.  Tell you what, for your longterm safety and security, why not invite in some war-like Angles and Saxons as a sort of guard dog?  Come to think of it, why not entice as many of them as possible over by giving them some of your land?  Trust me, it's highly unlikely they'll outstay their welcome.  You won't regret it."

Stew's advice to German centrists and liberals in 1932: "Look here, meine Freunde, you're having a bit of trouble shaking off Herr Hitler and forming a stable government.  Tell you what, for the longterm benefit of German centrism and liberalism, why not actually vote for Hitler yourselves?  You know, why not "hire" him?  You'll find that he's instantly neutered and totally under your control.  Trust me, you'll be perfectly safe.  You won't regret it."

Stew's advice during the Trojan War:  "That's a fine-looking horse.  It's made of wood and has been left by the Greeks, you say?  Perfect. BRING IT IN."

Stew's advice to Scottish independence supporters during the 2024 UK general election: "Every vote for Labour brings independence closer.  Trust me on this, if you follow my advice I'll be giving you regular progress reports over the next two years on how the Starmer government is advancing the cause of independence.  You won't regret it."

You're way ahead of me here - he actually said the last one.

[UPDATE: By a bizarre coincidence, Stew has actually revealed on social media tonight precisely how much the defeat to Dugdale cost him financially.  It wasn't tens of thousands of pounds he lost, it was hundreds of thousands.  £220,000, to be exact.  That was largely money he had crowdfunded from well-meaning independence supporters, and then had to hand over to the unionist state pointlessly.  "Bonkers" doesn't even begin to cover it - it's more like a tragedy for the people who funded him.]

Which group of voters did Offord actually intend to impress with his boast about owning six boats?

Paul Hutcheon's contributions to this campaign have been somewhat less than constructive, but I did think he was absolutely correct when he said that Malcolm Offord's boasts about his wealth were much more Thatcherite than Faragist.  They triggered something primal in our hard-right commentariat, who have since seized the opportunity to espouse an Ayn Rand style 'morality' in which the only thing heroic or good is to accumulate vast personal resources and to care nothing for those less fortunate than yourself.  It's ironic that Reform keep insisting that Britain is a "Christian country", because Christian morality is the polar opposite of Ayn Rand's.  The Christian message to Malcolm Offord would be simple and unpalatable for him: "give your yachts to the poor".

My question, though, is who did Offord actually intend to impress by mentioning his boats and cars in his pre-scripted question to Ross Greer?  All the evidence is that Reform primarily takes its votes from the lower end of the income scale, because that's where the anti-immigrant messaging seems to have most potency.  But the only country I know of in which low-income voters are impressed by their leaders openly working in favour of the wealthy is the US, where people have bought into the myth of the 'American Dream' and honestly believe that tax cuts for millionaires can direct benefit themselves because they too will soon be millionaires if they just work hard enough.  To the best of my knowledge, there is no similar phenomenon in Scotland.  People in deprived parts of the East End of Glasgow or wherever are more likely to hear Offord's boasts, and his claims to be worried about losing young Scots to Dubai (!), and think "this guy is from another planet, he doesn't understand us, he can't speak for us".

There might be some logic to the idea that Offord is trying to expand Reform's support base by appealing to wealthy voters too, and it's true that fascist movements have in the past taken power with a coalition of support that combines both big business and the working-class.  But in this case I'm not sure how Offord can appeal to Thatcherites without simultaneously alienating the low-income voters he needs to hang on to.  If there is a way of pulling the trick off, I doubt if he's going the right way about it.

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My latest constituency profile for The National is Rutherglen & Cambuslang.

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If you're finding the new Scot Goes Pop poll useful, please check out our new polling fundraiser, and if you're able to chuck in a few pounds it would be much appreciated - it might help us to run another poll in the future.

In a democracy, there has to be a route by which the most fundamental changes can be achieved if there is majority support for them, no matter how annoying or upsetting the process may be for the people who don't want those changes to happen

It's a reminder of just how comprehensively Somerset Stew has moved over to the other side that right in the middle of a Holyrood election campaign, he has approvingly tweeted an article from the poet and former Yes supporter Jenny Lindsay saying she is now agnostic about independence and would strongly oppose another referendum, because it would be "divisive".  I may be totally misremembering this, but I think I recall very briefly meeting Jenny Lindsay during the 2014 referendum campaign - I think she may have been manning the doors for John "The Gardener" McTernan's bizarre talk during "Yestival".  I knew that she had become disillusioned with the Scottish Government due to her gender critical views, but this is the first time I've become aware that she has actually ceased to be a Yesser as a result.  It seems that the trans issue has acted as a 'gateway drug' for her towards unionism (or soft unionism), which a cynic might say is what Stew was hoping would happen to people all along and is exactly why he started banging on about the issue in the first place.

To answer a question that sometimes comes up when I make the 'gateway drug' point - no, that categorically does not mean I regret commissioning a poll about gender self-ID several years ago.  I did that at a point when the Scottish Government were full-bloodedly trying to push self-ID through, and when we had no idea that the UK Government were even considering using their imperial veto to get us all off the hook.  My view was and remains that the Scottish Government desperately needed, in their own best interests, to be confronted with evidence of just how far they had drifted apart from public opinion, because pushing ahead recklessly could have caused untold damage to the independence cause.  But once the course correction was achieved, as it eventually was (albeit by unexpected means) what the critical friend to the Scottish Government should do at that point is take yes for an answer.  If you instead do what Stew has done and ramp up your fixation with the issue to the point that you're actually trying to use it to destroy the SNP and the independence cause, then you were never a friend in the first place.

With Jenny Lindsay, it's a different story, she's clearly sincere in what she says, even though I totally disagree with her.  Where I think she really doesn't have a leg to stand on is her notion that holding another referendum would be some sort of crime against humanity because it would terribly upset people who don't want independence to happen.  In a democracy, there has to be a path by which even the most fundamental changes can be achieved if there is a majority in favour of them, even if some people would be annoyed or upset by them.  The assisted dying vote in the Scottish Parliament last month was genuinely frightening and traumatic for many disabled people because it looked with a few hours to go as if the legislation might well pass.  I was personally relieved that it didn't pass, but I do respect the fact that it was absolutely right and proper that the vote was held, and that it will be similarly right and proper that other such votes will undoubtedly be held in the future, in spite of the stress and anguish it caused.  Exactly the same democratic principle applies to independence.  Even "once in a generation" has ceased to be an alibi, because by 2028 - when John Swinney wants to hold the referendum - a generation will have passed since 2014.  Alex Salmond was always explicit about what he meant by a political generation, and the example he usually gave was the period of time between the 1979 and 1997 devolution referendums.

If unionists feel there is something uniquely traumatic about fundamental change occurring via a referendum process, the onus is on them to accept that it can instead happen by a non-referendum democratic process.  But usually the idea of achieving independence in some other way makes them even more homicidal.  The only other option I can see for them if they want the issue to go away would be to engage in good faith with independence supporters in seeking a 'Grand Compromise' that both sides could live with, and would be enough for the bulk of the independence movement to agree to stop pressing for a referendum for a prolonged period of time, say for fifteen years.  But that compromise would probably look very much like genuine Devo Max - and we all know the fury with which unionists tend to react to that idea.  The reality is they don't want a coming together, they don't want an end to division.  That path is open to them, but they don't intend to take it.  All they want to do is totally thwart and destroy the legitimate political aspirations of their adversaries - who now represent more than 50% of the Scottish population.

So if you want to piously preach about "divisiveness", get back to us when you've had a change of heart and are willing to start listening, engaging, and compromising.  We're not exactly holding our breath on that one.

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My latest constituency profile for The National is Renfrewshire North & Cardonald.

The Diffley difference: new poll tilts this election in the SNP's favour - and is the ELEVENTH poll in the last four months to show that Scotland would vote Yes to independence in a new referendum

Unlike our occasional commenter Declan, I'm not particularly given to punching the air upon seeing an opinion poll, but if I was ever going to do that, yesterday would have been the day.  There were only two polls last week and they effectively produced a split decision - the Find Out Now poll I commissioned for Scot Goes Pop was pretty favourable for the SNP and exceptionally favourable for the Greens, while the Survation poll was significantly less good for both parties, although at least it did still point to a pro-indy majority in the Scottish Parliament and a fifth successive term in office for the SNP.  As the Tories discovered in the 2017 general election, and as Labour discovered in 1970, there's always just a chance that the least favourable pollster will also turn out to be the most accurate.  So the only way we could really get any reassurance on that front was if there was another Survation poll showing a rosier picture - and amazingly that's exactly what happened yesterday.

The Diffley Partnership commissioned a Survation poll that began its fieldwork before the previous one even ended, and it's significantly better for the SNP on the constituency ballot.  The seats projection doesn't quite show them on course for an overall majority, but it does show them knocking on the door with 62 seats.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot (Survation / Diffley Partnership, 17th-23rd April 2026):

SNP 38% (+3)

Reform UK 20% (-)

Labour 18% (-2)

Conservatives 12% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-)

Greens 2% (+1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 29% (-)

Reform UK 19% (-)

Labour 17% (-)

Greens 12% (+1)

Conservatives 12% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)

One sense in which last week's Survation poll was actually very good was that it showed there would be a Yes majority in a new independence referendum - something that most Survation polls in recent years have not showed.  The Diffley poll demonstrates that was not a fluke by showing the Yes vote rising higher still.  Having checked the small print, it looks like a possible explanation could be that Survation have finally dropped the dubious practice of weighting by recalled vote from a referendum that took place over a decade ago - but I don't want to be too definite in saying that, because last week's poll apparently was still weighted by 2014 vote.  I'm guessing there may be an error in the methodological note on one of the two polls.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 52% (+1)

No 48% (-1)

There have now been seventeen independence polls in this calendar year so far, ie. in the last four months, and *eleven* of them have shown a clear Yes majority.  The settled will klaxon is screeching tonight, and there are reports of it being heard as far away as Finland.

I was asked a specific question in the comments section of this blog the other night, so I just thought I'd take a moment to answer it - 

"James! You're an SNP member who isn't a slavish follower of the party line, so I'd be interested in your thoughts. We know that you oppose Swinney's approach of proclaiming an SNP majority the only way to get a referendum, but your objection has mostly been based on the unlikelihood of that being achieved."

To be clear, that wasn't the only reason for my objection, or even the main reason.  I was more worried about the precedent it would set - ie. if we weren't successful in this election, we'd then have lumbered ourselves in all future elections with the precedent of saying ourselves that we need to hit a target that, regardless of anyone's views of whether it's impossible or not, is certainly exceptionally difficult to reach.  I also didn't think the strategy was consistent with the principle of democratic self-determination.  As much as I'm an SNP member and want everyone to vote Both Votes SNP, I also don't think it's the business of any pro-independence party to try to place limits on how the Scottish people can exercise their right to self-determination, or to declare that there may be illegitimate or 'non-valid' ways of doing so.  If the Greens put independence in their manifesto, and if people vote Green, those votes still count.

Ever since the decision at conference was made, though, I've been repeatedly saying that all that really needs to happen is for John Swinney to soften his language before the election, and to make clear that although we're chasing a single-party overall majority as an ideal, a multi-party pro-indy majority would still constitute a mandate and would still be acted upon.  That does now seem to be happening to some extent, so I'm a lot more comfortable with where we are now than where we were last October.  Paul Hutcheon was fuming yesterday about Swinney 'shifting the goalposts', so it can only be a good thing.

"But recent polls suggest it's just about possible. So let's assume it is achieved. Do you think that would actually create any significant pressure on Westminster to concede? Or would they be able to dismiss it just as easily as they've always done?"

I think to break the logjam there's going to have to be some sort of 'wow' factor to the result, just as there was in 2011 - something that makes London commentators say "yeah, we didn't see that coming".  It could happen in several different ways - if the SNP win a higher vote share than expected, or if there is some sort of pro-indy 'supermajority', or if the SNP and Greens take first and second place respectively.  The Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll suggested both of the last two scenarios might be on the cards.  Remember also that the London commentariat are far more obsessed with the Starmer soap opera than they are with the constitutional fate of Scotland, so if Labour do poorly enough in the Holyrood election to play a role in Starmer resigning - for example if they finish fifth in terms of seats, as the Scot Goes Pop poll suggested they might - that could also make people sit up and take notice.

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If you're finding the new Scot Goes Pop poll useful, please check out our new polling fundraiser, and if you're able to chuck in a few pounds it would be much appreciated - it might help us to run another poll in the future.

Alex Cole-Hamilton really didn't want to answer the question about Prestwick Airport.

Anas Sarwar really didn't want to answer the question about whether he would refuse a peerage.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) April 28, 2026

What does anyone actually need six boats for? Does he have one in each continent, or something like that?

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) April 28, 2026

If the SNP had no new policies, the cry would be "You're knackered! You've run out of ideas!"

But because they do have new policies, it's "Why didn't you do these things nineteen years ago?"

You can't have it both ways, chaps.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) April 28, 2026

EXCLUSIVE SCOT GOES POP / FIND OUT NOW POLL: By a more than 2-1 majority, the Scottish public reject Wes Streeting's arrogance, and insist that Scottish voters - rather than the UK Government - should decide on whether an independence referendum is held. Even *Labour voters* decisively agree that Streeting is wrong.

Labour's UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting was recently asked in an LBC interview whether there would be an independence referendum if the Scottish people vote in favour of holding one at the Scottish Parliament election next week.  There were numerous ways he could have answered: he could have waffled and said "well, let's wait and see the result before taking a view" or "I'm confident that the Scottish people will make the right decision" or the old favourite "I'm not going to sit here and deal in hypotheticals".  But instead he came right out and baldly said "they're not having" a referendum irrespective of the result of the referendum - and the contemptuous "they" in the context of the question could only have referred to the Scottish people themselves, rather than to the Scottish Government or the SNP.  When pressed on how the Scottish people could get a referendum if they want one (presumably the interviewer was naive enough to assume there must be some sort of mechanism in a democracy), Streeting doubled down and said "they're not having one" and that they have no way of getting one, because the British government has decided and what the voters want doesn't matter.

I mean, "muscular unionism" is one thing, but there comes a point where you're just completely jumping the shark and openly taunting Scottish voters that they do not live in a democracy, and that they do not live in a voluntary union, and that the UK is their prison, and that Streeting, Starmer and the others are their jailers.  Well, Streeting may think it's possible for him to stop the Scottish people from voting on certain subjects, but at least as of this moment he does not yet have the power to prevent them being asked for their views in opinion polls.  So I thought it was not unreasonable to use the new Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll to ask for their immediate verdict on Streeting's outburst.  Do they agree with him that it's for the UK Government to decide whether Scotland can vote on independence in a referendum, or do they instead believe that Scottish voters should decide in next week's election?  

As you may have seen, I've already released the result in a video on my YouTube channel, but here it is in text format:  

Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll (15th-20th April 2026, sample size: 1002)

John Swinney has said if the SNP wins a majority in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election this would act as a mandate for an independence referendum. Meanwhile Wes Streeting (UK Government minister) has said "they're not having one" and "we are not going to introduce chaos into the UK by having an independence referendum. Absolutely not".

Who should decide whether or not a Scottish independence referendum takes place in the future?

The UK Government should decide: 24%

Scottish voters should decide (such as at the Scottish Parliament election taking place on 7th May): 53%

Don't Know: 23%

The result is not remotely surprising, but its emphatic nature does send an incredibly powerful message to Streeting, to the rest of the Labour UK Government, and indeed to the wider London establishment. The margin is more than 2-1, and if Don't Knows are removed it works out at roughly 69% for 'Scottish voters should decide' and 31% for 'the UK Goverment should decide'.

Particularly important is the fact that people who actually voted Labour in the 2024 general election take exactly the same view as the wider sample: 49% think the Scottish people should decide and only 35% agree with Streeting that the British government should decide.  If Labour do as badly in this election as we think they might (the seats projection from this poll has them in just FIFTH place), there's going to be a lot of soul-searching about how they can reassemble the 35% coalition of support that proved just about enough to win them a majority of Scottish seats in 2024, and questions will surely be asked about whether that will ever be possible if people like Streeting continue to stick two fingers up at his own voters' belief in the principle of self-determination.  A substantial minority of the Labour voters in 2024 were independence supporters, but support for the idea that Scotland itself should make the decision clearly goes much further than that.

There is no real gender gap in the poll, except for the fact that women are much more likely to say "Don't Know".  56% of men and 50% of women say the decision should be for Scottish voters.  Unsurprisingly, younger voters are much more decisively in favour of self-determination than older voters, although even among 55-64 year olds (an age group that returned a No majority on the standard independence question), there is a 50% to 29% margin in favour of Scottish voters being able to decide.  Only among over-65s is there a plurality in favour of the UK government deciding, and that plurality is very narrow indeed.

Every single one of the eight electoral regions is in favour of Scottish voters making the choice, with the biggest majority in Lothian (59% to 16%).  And remarkably there is near-*unanimity* among people who voted SNP and Green at the 2024 general election - 94% of Green voters and 95% of SNP voters say that it's a matter for the Scottish people rather than for Streeting and UK ministers.  Also intriguing is that quite a substantial minority of Reform UK voters (34%) are in favour of self-determination.

 

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If you're finding this poll useful, please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser, and if you're able to chuck in a few pounds it would be much appreciated - it might help us to run another poll in the future.

Now that the taboo has been broken of interviewees pointing out the elephant in the room live on air, I think Ed Balls is going to have to do a little bit better than "yeah, I was a Labour Cabinet minister but that was YEARS AGO" and "the Foreign Secretary is ONLY MY WIFE". https://t.co/PXvYP3DnpT

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) April 27, 2026

Join me on YouTube at NOON as Wes "they're not having one!" Streeting faces his HIGH NOON in the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll: do the Scottish public agree with Streeting that the UK Government gets to decide whether an independence referendum is held, or do they think voters should decide in the Scottish Parliament election next week?

If you join the waiting zone, the video should automatically start playing when the clock strikes 12 for Streeting's HIGH NOON.  While you're waiting for the results, please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser, and if you're able to chuck in a few pounds it would be much appreciated - it might help us to run another poll in the future.

It will soon be HIGH NOON for Wes Streeting in the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll

My latest constituency profile for The National is John Swinney's seat of Perthshire North.

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If you've finding Scot Goes Pop poll useful, please consider donating to our new polling fundraiser, which you can find HERE.

Hammerblow for Brit Nat propaganda outfit "Scotland In Union" as their regular pollsters Survation show a clear pro-independence majority, right in the middle of the Holyrood election campaign

As I said the other day, there's still more to come from the new Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll - I had been planning to release another result on Friday, and then that slipped to yesterday, and somehow it didn't happen today either.  I think I probably just needed some downtime, because the mid-part of the week was a bit manic, but tomorrow may well be the day.  In the meantime, I had been expecting to be able to bring you the weekend polls that would usually come along at this stage of an election campaign, but amazingly there don't seem to be any.  It's probably just as well that I and a certain Green Belt "Project" went ahead and commissioned our own polls last week, otherwise there'd be no up-to-date information at all about the state of play in the Holyrood race, although unfortunately those two polls muddied the waters a bit, because despite having almost identical fieldwork dates, they contradicted each other in several respects.

The Survation poll was much less favourable for the Greens (somewhat ironically, given who commissioned it), and by implication it was also less good for the SNP, who didn't receive a boost on the constituency ballot in spite of the Greens being excluded as an option in the constituencies where they aren't standing.  But one sense in which the two polls are in complete accord is in showing a rosy picture for independence - and that's highly significant, because Survation, in total contrast to Find Out Now, do not have a long track record of showing Yes majorities.  Their previous poll at the start of the year was a dead heat, and prior to that they had produced several polls in a row showing a No lead.  They have now become the SEVENTH different pollster to show a Yes lead at some point in this calendar year so far, and it's only April.  So there's no point in our old friend KC droning on about how it's only ever Ipsos and Find Out Now who show a Yes lead - those days are over.  Of the sixteen independence polls in 2026, this is the TENTH to show a pro-indy majority.

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Survation, 14th-21st April 2026)

Yes 51% (+1)

No 49% (-1)

It also shouldn't go unnoticed, incidentally, that Survation are the pollsters who conduct the regular series of propaganda polls for Scotland In Union, which replace the standard independence question with a leading question, and which always give the impression that opposition to independence is stronger than it actually is.  It's something of a blow for Scotland In Union, I'd have thought, that this of all moments is when Survation have suddenly shown a Yes majority in a credible poll with a credible question.

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My latest two constituency profiles for the national are the Orkney Islands and Paisley.

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If you've found the latest Scot Goes Pop poll useful, please consider donating to our new polling fundraiser, which you can find HERE.

More thoughts on the prospects for an SNP overall majority in the light of the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll

Just to allow you to make up your own minds, I thought I'd draw your attention to the fact that the Stats for Lefties account picked up on the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll yesterday, and produced their own seats projection from it that is radically different from the one I published on Wednesday night:

SNP 68

Greens 18

Reform UK 15

Liberal Democrats 10

Labour 10

Conservatives 8

That would be a single-party SNP overall majority, whereas my projection has the SNP six seats short of a majority on 59.  I've been saying for months (and I really have been saying this for months) that the Stats for Lefties projection model always seems to be overly optimistic for the SNP, and often produces an overall majority when other models do not.  During the debate in the autumn about whether the SNP should adopt the target of an overall majority, I was very concerned that some of the proponents of the idea were using the Stats for Lefties projections to give the impression that a majority was a lot more likely than was really the case.

However, there are two caveats this time around.  As I said myself the other night, in the real world the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll would probably produce about 63 SNP seats (almost a majority but not quite), because most of the 12% of people who said they would vote Green on the constituency ballot will not be able to do so, and a lot of them will actually vote SNP.  So if the Stats for Lefties projection is making some sort of common sense adjustment to the constituency numbers to take account of that, it might not be quite so far out.  

And secondly, even without any adjustment, the constituency vote shares from the poll are actually better for the SNP than the Find Out Now MRP poll from last month.  The MRP poll had the SNP on 34% of the vote and gave them a 16-point lead over the second placed party (Labour).  The Scot Goes Pop poll has the SNP on 35% and gives them a 19-point lead over the second-placed party (Reform UK).  The MRP poll, once the individual constituency-level projections were totted up, gave the SNP an overall majority - it was surprising that it showed that, but it did.  So if you think the projection method that was used in that MRP poll was sound, then yes, the Scot Goes Pop poll probably would point to an SNP overall majority, even before you take into account the issue of the Greens on the constituency ballot.

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If you've been finding the new Scot Goes Pop poll interesting or useful, please check out the new polling fundraiser I've set up.