SCOT goes POP!
A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - one of Scotland's three most-read political blogs.
Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Another week, another SUBSAMPLE SENSATION as SNP soar to twenty-point lead in YouGov crossbreak for the ages
Monday, June 23, 2025
The SNP have now been in power for longer than the Thatcher/Major government
Just a quick point that occurred to me the other day, and apologies if someone else has already pointed this out. The longest-running UK government since the Second World War was the Thatcher/Major Conservative government that held office for exactly two days short of eighteen years. It came to power on 4th May 1979 and was ousted on 2nd May 1997.
The SNP government in Scotland has now exceeded that record. It took office on 17th May 2007, which means it has been in power for eighteen years, one month and six days. The only minor sense in which the comparison is not an exact one is that the Thatcher/Major government was always a single-party Tory administration, whereas the SNP had the ill-fated period of coalition with the Greens, and technically some or all of the law officers have been independents (ie. non-party).
But those are no more than points of pedantry, because the government has clearly been totally dominated by the SNP throughout. From a purely party political point of view, ie. leaving aside for a moment the frustrations over the lack of progress on independence, that is quite some achievement.
I saw from a tweet that Stew Campbell had written a blogpost about me called "Anatomy of a L...", with the rest of the L word obscured. I knew without even checking that it would be "Lunatic". The poor chap's vocabulary range has shrunk to almost nothingness.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 23, 2025
And yes, I will be wearily responding to my Somerset stalker's 7562nd blogpost about me, but it'll probably have to wait until at least tomorrow at this stage.
The Stew-pot calling the Stew-kettle Snow White
You may have noticed that this has been a recurring theme from Stew for several weeks now - whenever I point out the obvious fact that voting against independence is not the ideal strategy for winning independence, he accuses me of "hate". He even wrote a blogpost about me on Wings a few weeks ago called "Blinded By Hate" - although curiously it does not feature in his "compare and contrast" list of blogposts (or in his pie-chart of blogposts - genuinely a thing!) which seeks to establish that he has only ever written three blogposts about me and that I have written dozens about him. Mysteriously, his landmark 2022 blogpost "For Karen and James", in which he made the downright bonkers claim that I and Karen Adam were literally the only reasons he had returned to "full-time blogging", also does not appear on the list or pie-chart of his supposed "three blogposts" about me. Nor do the vast majority of the other blogposts about me that have featured on Wings over the years.
What is going on here? Well, look at the screenshotted tweet above. You'll notice that it's unambiguously about me but it doesn't directly mention me by name. He does the same thing in many of his other tweets and blogposts about me. A cynic might almost wonder if that's a deliberate tactic - allowing him to stalk me relentlessly while still being able to innocently invite people to "do a search of the words 'James Kelly' on the site - look, only three posts appear! It's him that is Blinded By Hate, not me!" But then a cynic would only wonder that because cynics are very, very cynical indeed.
So what is this "hate" of which he speaks? I can only assume that he thinks I hate both him and the Alba Party (or at least the Alba leadership) - that's what he seemed to be getting at in the past. But, Stew, here's the thing - Fergus Ewing is not you, and he's not even a member of the Alba Party, so why would my supposed "hate" extend to him? I find him perfectly likeable, and I've actually been extremely complimentary about him at times - I've said that I agreed with some (definitely not all, but some) of his critique of the SNP's strategic choices over the last few years, and I also made abundantly clear that I thought the SNP had made a terrible mistake by temporarily suspending him. It's hard to make much sense of what Stew is getting at unless he's hinting that there's some kind of informal arrangement between Alba and Mr Ewing that he knows about and the rest of us don't.
But there's also the small matter of the pot calling the kettle black. If Stew thinks that me calling for independence supporters to vote for the pro-independence Scottish National Party is a "strange place" for me to end up in, and that I can only have been led there by "hate", what would he say about a nominally pro-independence blogger who told his readers to vote for the anti-independence Labour party in the general election, simply as an act of revenge because he was so eaten up with resentment and bitterness after Nicola Sturgeon refused to back him in his idiotic vanity court case against Kezia Dugdale? What would he say about the same blogger now moving towards an outright endorsement of the soft-fascist and most certainly anti-independence party Reform UK - something he'll only be able to justify with mind-bending contortions of logic along the lines of "to win independence, we must first kill independence"?
I think that's a pretty strange place for you to end up in, Stew, and yes, I do think you've been led there by hate - or at the very least by deep-seated bitterness and grievance. Others may disagree...but only because you've brainwashed them.
This is, in fact, not only untrue but a massive insult to both groups for different reasons. pic.twitter.com/oQ1cz10dQo
— Wings Over Scotland (@WingsScotland) June 20, 2025
Here's yet another Stew tweet that is unambiguously about me but evades the search function by not mentioning me by name. It's also just about the laziest retort I've ever seen from him - it amounts to no more than "Rubbish, because reasons!" Who are the two "groups"? What is the nature of the "massive insult"? What are the "different reasons" for it being an insult in each case? Nobody knows, and his lips are sealed. Probably you're supposed to conclude that he'd tell you if only you were on his own plane of intellect, and capable of understanding.
One logical possibility is that the two groups he's referring to are "Palestinians" and "humanity", and that he regards a comparison between the two as an insult to humanity, because he sees the entire Palestinian ethnic group as 'terrorist trash'. That's a point he made once before when he wrote a blogpost last year calling for the Green MSP Ross Greer to be prosecuted for hate crimes simply because he had used the words "Victory to Palestine! Victory to humanity!" According to Stew, "Palestine" and "Hamas" are indistinguishable concepts, and you are therefore illegally supporting a proscribed terrorist group if you simply wish the Palestinians success in their resistance to genocide.
Conflating the Palestinian ethnic group with Hamas most certainly constitutes a profound insult, but I somehow doubt Stew has had that particular epiphany quite yet. So what he thinks the insult to Palestinians was remains a total mystery.
Sunday, June 22, 2025
"You must now vote for the SNP on the list": controversial Somerset-based blogger reveals stunning change to his tactical voting advice in the Highlands
When Somerset's controversial "Stew" blogger started talking up Fergus Ewing's chances of holding his constituency seat as an independent, it struck me that he (ie. Stew) was setting himself up for a bit of a problem. It's become extremely important to him to hold the line, patently absurd though it is, that the SNP are definitely not going to win any list seats at all at next year's Holyrood election. I think he's banking on the simplicity of that (totally fraudulent) message to convince people to abandon the SNP on the list when they simply haven't done so in past elections - including in 2016, of course, which was before Stew's Damascene conversion on the subject and when he was still on the same page as me in pointing out that "tactical voting on the list" is a mug's game and essentially impossible to pull off successfully.
But by arguing that Ewing has a real chance of beating the SNP in Inverness & Nairn, Stew is by definition reducing his "projected number of guaranteed SNP constituency seats" in the Highlands & Islands and thus making it even more likely that the SNP will win at least one compensatory list seat in the region - which is one of the two regions where they already have a list seat, of course. So if Stew concedes that inescapable point in an effort to maintain at least a semblance of logical coherence, it basically pulverises the simplicity of his "definitely no list seats at all for the SNP" messaging and means he'll have to revert to a more complex and probably less persuasive sales-pitch that factors in the real possibility that in some places SNP list votes will translate into SNP list seats.
I was curious to see how he would handle the dilemma, but I wasn't quite expecting this -
Wow. So in the blink of an eye he's gone from "every single SNP list vote in Scotland will definitely be wasted" to "SNP list votes in the Highlands & Islands will not be wasted and that's a good thing because it means you can vote for Fergus Ewing safely". But the most important part of this new tactical voting advice is the bit he doesn't want to spell out, for very obvious reasons. The logic only holds true if the SNP don't fall short of the percentage vote on the list that Stew is expecting - in other words he's tacitly saying you can only vote for Fergus Ewing safely on the constituency ballot if you also vote for the SNP on the list. And by implication that has to be what he's advising you to do.
Stew telling people to vote tactically in favour of the SNP on the list - now that was a plot twist I didn't see coming.
By the way, if I lived in Inverness & Nairn I would be voting for the official SNP candidate Emma Roddick and not for Fergus Ewing - and that would be the case even if I hadn't rejoined the SNP a few months ago. It's no secret that I'm closer to Mr Ewing's views on identity politics issues than I am to Ms Roddick's, but Mr Ewing's call for the SNP to abandon independence for the next ten years makes it next to impossible, I would suggest, for independence supporters to vote for him. He's now become a short-term and medium-term unionist.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Majesty. Grandeur. The Taj Mahal of polling crossbreaks. SNP hit 41% in simply sumptuous Ipsos subsample.
Scottish subsample: SNP 41%, Reform UK 30%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Greens 3%, Conservatives 3%
Having talked the subsample up, I'm now going to have to talk it back down again, because Ipsos are not like YouGov, so the Scottish figures are probably not correctly weighted. However, 4% for the SNP in the GB-wide numbers, which are properly weighted, is not at all shabby - and this is the latest in a string of decent GB-wide polls for the party since their setback in the Hamilton by-election, although curiously the fieldwork for this poll took place before that vote.
Why the long delay? It may have something to do with Ipsos rolling out a new methodology - they seem to be changing their emphasis from telephone polling to an adjusted version of online panel polling (one of the adjustments being that panel members are recruited offline). I don't know whether that will affect their long-running series of Scottish telephone polls commissioned by STV. But certainly the headline numbers do look a bit different from polls conducted by other firms - as far as I can see, Reform's 34% is an all-time high across all pollsters, beating even the 33% previously recorded by Find Out Now a couple of times in May. The gap between Labour in second place and the Tories in third is also bigger than other firms have been showing.
Incidentally, Ipsos have given Alba propagandists no hiding place in this poll, because it looks like Alba were offered as an option, but recorded a big fat zero in the Scottish subsample.
Net ratings for party leaders:
Bilingual people no longer need to feel left out: yes, Stew hates you too
As far as I can remember, I don't think we had definite proof until now that the controversial "Stew" blogger's hostility to Gaelic also extends to Scots, but it's not a huge surprise to learn that it does. Of course it takes a different form in the case of Scots, because whereas he hates Gaelic and regards it as alien and useless and wants it to be totally eradicated, he's merely trying to reclassify Scots as just English in a funny accent. That has the same ultimate effect, though, because if Scots is seen as merely a non-standard variant of English, it becomes acceptable for authority figures to "correct" people's Scots speech and push everyone towards standard English. By contrast, accepting that Scots and English are closely-related but distinct languages means giving parity of esteem to Scots and English words and phrases and treating them as equally valid and legitimate.
The Alba Party's shambolic infighting intensifies as the convener of Inverclyde branch sends an email to all local party members blasting the MacAskill leadership for "barely registering" - and then QUITS
Friday, June 20, 2025
SNP win the first preference vote in the Cromarty Firth by-election, but miss out after transfers
Independent - Cross 20.1% (n/a)
Independent - Rattray 15.4% (n/a)
Reform UK 14.6% (n/a)
Liberal Democrats 12.2% (-15.7)
Greens 3.9% (+1.0)
Alba 3.8% (n/a)
Labour 3.2% (-1.0)
Conservatives 2.0% (-4.7)
Thursday, June 19, 2025
The cause of Palestine is the cause of humanity - and it is therefore inseparable from the Scottish independence movement
I'm told that The National is getting good traffic from focusing so hard on Palestine, although "good traffic" for The National is of course a relative term. pic.twitter.com/wQJ2DSvjLm
— Wings Over Scotland (@WingsScotland) June 10, 2025
"Relative" is an interesting choice of word, because here is a direct comparison from Stew's very favourite traffic comparison site SimilarWeb:
Estimated total visits in the 28 days up to 16th June 2025: