Stonehaven SENSATION: "Most accurate polling company" projects an SNP overall majority - and the biggest lead for independence since October 2020

Analysis of the MRP mega-poll suggesting the SNP are on course for a single-party overall majority

So a couple of 'quick notes' for you today, because I have two new articles on The National's website.  First up is the constituency profile of Aberdeen Donside, which you can read HERE.  I've also done some analysis of the Stonehaven MRP poll for the Times showing the SNP on course for an overall majority, which you can read HERE.

Incidentally, I can't remember previously being aware of Stonehaven, despite them enthusiastically billing themselves as "the most accurate pollster in the 2024 general election".  I checked the British Polling Council's website, and they aren't listed as a member.  I then double-checked with Grok, who to my surprise told me they are a BPC member.  I asked for an explanation of the discrepancy, and Grok said it might be due to Stonehaven's acquisition of the BPC member Public First, ie. they might have decided Public First's membership was enough to cover both firms.  All very confusing, and it leaves me a bit unsure as to whether Stonehaven are bound by BPC disclosure rules or not.

There's a bit of chaos going on at home at the moment, so I'm not sure whether I'll be able to make proper videos for a little while.  (I know some of you will regard that as a great relief!). So it'll probably be either audio commentaries to tide things over, or a brief return to conventional blogging.

Another week, another TOTAL WIPEOUT FOR LABOUR IN SCOTLAND signalled by YouGov subsample

 

The second in my series of Holyrood constituency profiles for The National is Aberdeen Deeside & North Kincardine, and it can be read HERE.

Introducing your daily constituency profiles for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election

Later in this video I also make an offer to Sara Salyers of a video debate, given that she and her supporters suddenly seem to have such an almighty bee in their bonnet about me.  But I strongly suspect that, just like Stuart Campbell when I made him an identical offer a few weeks ago, she'll mysteriously find that she's too busy washing her hair or something.

The first of my 73 constituency profiles for The National (Aberdeen Central) can be read HERE.

The sickening hypocrisy of Sara Salyers

I was half-thinking of making a video in direct response to the unhinged personal attack Sara Salyers of "Salvo" launched against me earlier today, but in spite of the character limit on Twitter, I was able to fit most of what I wanted to say into the tweet below.  (By contrast, Salyers' own attack tweet had busted the character limit many, many times over, which presumably means she has no scruples whatever about sending a regular subscription fee to the far-right Elon Musk.)

Was Salyers "a typical mooth doing the British state's job for it" when she stayed silent on the good independence supporters (and I'm simply one of dozens) who were trampled over by the Alba leadership? On her own logic I suppose she must have been. What a pathetic hypocrite. https://t.co/nRkd8SsRoe

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 22, 2026

I must say it's something of a relief to finally have such a demonstrably strong reason for not taking one of the noisiest figures from the nuttier fringes of our movement seriously anymore.  I've had to bite my tongue any number of times over the years when people have invited me to treat Salyers and her batty prospectus as some sort of passport to the promised land.  You'll have to forgive me, but as a baptised Roman Catholic with ancestry that is two-thirds Irish and one-eighth French-Canadian, I have no great interest in Salyers' preposterous, offensive and quasi-religious belief that Scotland's right to choose its own constitutional future is not granted by modern concepts of democracy and international law, but instead by the almost random existence of a racist, bigoted 17th Century document that spends half its time wittering on about the supposedly self-evident evils of "Papists".  It really isn't that far from Salyers' belief-system to Benjamin Netanyahu's conviction that Israel must rule the West Bank because it was promised to them in a sacred book 3000 years ago.

Incidentally, my message to Salyers above is much the same as to anyone else who claims that nobody is allowed to criticise the Alba Party because it is nominally "pro-independence".  OK, if you spoke out at the time against the McEleny purges of good independence supporters, if you took to social media to denounce the Alba leadership's appalling treatment of independence warriors such as Eva Comrie and Denise Findlay, if you wrote to Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh to tell her in no uncertain terms how outraged you were by her sinister actions against the impeccably pro-Yes Alan Harris and Morgwn Davies simply because they had insisted on due process in Colin White's disciplinary case, then fine, you have credibility on this matter, you deserve a hearing, and I'll give you one.  But if you instead sat back and allowed all of that to happen without comment while continuing to mindlessly applaud the perpetrators, then I strongly suggest you stop being such a ridiculous hypocrite and just pipe down.

You can see the video that triggered Salyers so much below - 

Typical Alba: They can't even abolish themselves without it turning into a total shambles

The Alba Party's final betrayal of its own members: having justified a DOUBLING of membership fees to "fund turning the Holyrood election into a de facto referendum", Kenny MacAskill announces at the last minute that Alba will not actually be standing in the election

This is the email Kenny MacAskill has just sent to Alba members, who yet again have been made total mugs of by a self-appointed and self-serving party elite - 

"Dear friend

Let me, firstly, thank you for your support for our Party over these past years. It has been gratefully appreciated. We were formed by Alex Salmond when the SNP faltered and fell by the wayside on pursuing the cause of Independence, compounded by their shameful treatment of him which disgusted so many of us.

It hasn’t been easy given the Party’s launch during Covid and the hostility of the SNP throughout. But we persevered. We were then though struck by the grievous blow of Alex’s tragic and early passing. Notwithstanding that we rallied in his memory and to maintain his dream which we all share.

However, as I mentioned in the last email financial irregularities have come to light since the dismissal of the General Secretary for gross misconduct. These have been reported to the Police and an investigation which we are assisting and fully cooperating with is ongoing. Matters are with the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service, and I expect matters to progress further shortly. This was compounded by Ash Regan MSP, our former colleague, who despite being advised of the concerns we had, instead chose to give employment to the former General Secretary thus given credence to his denials of misconduct.

I can assure you of integrity of current staff and elected office bearers but neither that nor justice being done addresses the perilous financial position which we find ourselves in as a result. Despite the sterling efforts of Corri Wilson, our Director of Operations, in stabilising and then seeking to turn matters around our financial position remains acute.

We have been in touch with the Electoral Commission who have shown great forbearance in the late lodging of audited accounts and even been helpful in our dealings with the former General Secretary who has continued to seek to damage the Party. But we face a financial situation where we simply cannot provide the further accounts which they require, along with meeting staff wages and covering other costs which we are either tied into or are required to meet. In these circumstances fighting an election is simply beyond our resources.

Even the willingness of a hardy band of activists whose efforts I am truly grateful for does not address the immediate crisis which we face. To contest an election a Party requires to be registered with them. We require to formally reregister by the end of next month. We have met with the Electoral Commission who are reflecting on the issues we have raised and the information we have provided.

However, I have to advise that it looks likely that we will not be able to register and therefore even to contest the election. That brings also into question the viability of a Party which neither has financial resource nor the ability to contest elections.

I know this will come as a bitter blow to you. It is a feeling shared by those of us who have shared your journey and have tried to steady the ship when torpedoed by the actions of an individual. But we have a duty to staff and to office bearers and members of the NEC who could face personal liability for incurred debt.

​

I will keep you advised as matters will be clearer in coming days. In the interim we will be continuing to support Moira, assist the court case to ensure justice for Alex and launching an award scheme in his name for young people to ensure his memory is forever maintained.

Our Party may have difficulties, but our cause is eternal.

The dream shall never die.

Kenny MacAskill"

The point is of course that the leadership knew about all of these issues when they hiked the membership fees only a few weeks ago - they knew there was a significant chance they wouldn't be able to re-register or to contest the election, and yet they went right ahead and hiked the fees anyway.  And what on earth was the circus over Alba's candidate selection for Holyrood all about?  It's been pointed out that it was a bit silly that Debbie Ewen brought the party to its knees over her bruised ego after being ranked second on the Lothians list rather than first, because the first-placed candidate had no realistic chance of being elected anyway.   But if none of them were actually going to be able to even stand in the election, what in heaven's name was she doing?

It sounds very much like MacAskill is softening members up for the likely total dissolution of the Alba Party (which by this point should be regarded as a tremendous relief), which begs the obvious question - will refunds to members be provided?

The SETTLED WILL KLAXON is sounding across Scotland this morning as yet ANOTHER Find Out Now poll shows a decisive pro-independence majority

Drama as yet more details of the rigged 2023 Alba NEC election emerge: key Salmond ally Hamish Vernal is exposed as another massive beneficiary of the suspicious voting patterns

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Analysis of new More In Common poll showing the SNP on course for big victory

Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new article at The National about the freshly-released More In Common poll, which has the SNP on course for 64 seats - the same as in 2021, but on a significantly lower share of the vote.  You can read the article HERE.