Friday, June 19, 2026
By-election analysis
Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new article at The National analysing last night's three by-election results, which you can read HERE. I'll try to make a video later on as well, although having stayed up most of the night, I'm a bit groggy-eyed at the moment.
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The results are purely turnout driven. That is the one consistent and stark factor in the results. SNP share went up in Abroath vs the British opposition who’s voters are more likely to turn out for their own national elections. Ergo, no Murrell effect evident whatsoever, as per polling indicators.
ReplyDeleteIn Makerfeild, it was 58.7%, so this is a Scottish thing. It’s not a general pattern.