Pro-independence parties on course to win an astonishing 62% of seats in the next Scottish Parliament, says sumptuous Ipsos poll

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot (Ipsos, 26th-31st March 2026):

SNP 39% (+3)

Reform UK 15% (-1)

Labour 15% (-5)

Conservatives 11% (+2)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-)

Greens 7% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 29% (+3)

Greens 16% (-)

Reform UK 16% (+2)

Labour 15% (-4)

Conservatives 13% (+2)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)

Seats projection:

SNP 63

Greens 17

Reform UK 15

Labour 14

Conservatives 12

Liberal Democrats 8

I'll update this post with full commentary when I have more time later this afternoon or this evening, but while I'm thinking of it, just one point - does anyone know whether STV are still commissioning these Ipsos polls?  At some point a few months ago they stopped using the words "exclusive poll commissioned by STV", so I'm starting to wonder if Ipsos are now self-funding them, but are continuing an informal relationship with STV as a convenient way of promoting the results.

UPDATE: OK, the commentary follows from here!  This poll basically contradicts the Norstat poll, because it shows the SNP getting closer to an overall majority rather than further away.  It not only has the SNP gaining three points on both ballots, but also shows the Reform vote holding up on the constituency ballot and Labour slumping horrifically.  The main reason that Norstat were suggesting the SNP's chances of a majority were slipping was because there appeared to be a big swing from Reform back to Labour - but Ipsos are showing the opposite.  Theoretically that might be explained by the fact that Norstat's fieldwork dates were a bit more recent - but not by much.  The Ipsos poll opened four days earlier than Norstat's on 26th March, and the two polls even overlapped by a couple of days later on.  I think this is more a straightforward case of two different polling companies showing opposite trends for reasons that have yet to be determined.

The Greens clearly aren't really going to take 7% of the vote on the constituency ballot, because they're only standing in a handful of constituency seats, and I doubt if that's been taken into account in the seats projection.  If the SNP take, say, just over half of that 7%, it might inch them a bit closer to a majority.

The 39% for the SNP on the constituency ballot equals their highest in any poll from any polling company since September 2023, when an Opinium poll commissioned by the Tony Blair Institute (!) had them on 42%.  By contrast, Labour's 15% share appears to be their lowest in any poll from Ipsos or the predecessor firm Ipsos-Mori since the 2021 Holyrood election.

One small bit of bad news is that this is a rare example in recent times of an Ipsos poll not showing a lead for Yes on the independence question - instead it's a 50/50 split.  However, the last couple of polls from the firm have had Yes on 51% or 52%, so normal sampling variation made it almost inevitable there would eventually be a poll showing either a small No lead or a dead heat.

As usual, John Swinney's net personal rating (-8) is superior to that of his main rivals, with Anas Sarwar on -29 and Reform's Malcolm Offord on an embarrassing -41.  That should exclude the main danger of any major turnaround in the parties' fortunes over the remaining month of the campaign.

Although Westminster elections are not forefront in our minds just now, it shouldn't go unmentioned that the Westminster figures set the SNP up for a stonkingly good result in a first-past-the-post election...

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 37%

Reform UK 16%

Labour 16%

Conservatives 11%

Greens 9%

Liberal Democrats 8%

In terms of a seats projection, I make it: SNP 49, Liberal Democrats 5, Conservatives 2, Labour 1.

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