Thank goodness it’s the majority of pro Indy votes, and not just SNP votes, that count. Oh wait!! Thanks Swinney. No mandate to progress Indy? Meanwhile, another chunk of salary and pension benefits. Well worked. Conference must be proud, so very proud, to have voted your policy through.
Taking the figures but making the figures for "other" as 5% and 6% does indeed give SNP 64 - 0 on the list. "Other" get 2 on the list.
https://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
But making other 0% and 1% gives SNP 65 - 1 on the list. "Other" get 0 on the list. Other are not a party so won't be winning 2 seats on the list with 6% of the list vote - other will be split between the usual small groups.
OK. Moving 5% greens constituency to the SNP gives the SNP 69 with 1 list seat. Also moving 5% from Greens on the List to SNP gives the same 69 for SNP but less for the Greens as you'd expect.
But make the SNP 43% on the list - 1% less than the constituency as in 2011, jiggle the others a little, and the SNP get 71 (3 list seats) with the Greens on 11. No need for BHA2 and a safe overall majority.
To achieve an overall majority, the SNP do need to max the list vote as well as the constituency.
Personally speaking I wouldn't rely too much on Reform up high in the mix.
Thank goodness it’s the majority of pro Indy votes, and not just SNP votes, that count. Oh wait!! Thanks Swinney. No mandate to progress Indy? Meanwhile, another chunk of salary and pension benefits. Well worked. Conference must be proud, so very proud, to have voted your policy through.
ReplyDeleteTaking the figures but making the figures for "other" as 5% and 6% does indeed give SNP 64 - 0 on the list. "Other" get 2 on the list.
ReplyDeletehttps://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
But making other 0% and 1% gives SNP 65 - 1 on the list. "Other" get 0 on the list. Other are not a party so won't be winning 2 seats on the list with 6% of the list vote - other will be split between the usual small groups.
You're using a completely different projection model from me, so it's an apples-and-oranges comparison.
DeleteOK. Moving 5% greens constituency to the SNP gives the SNP 69 with 1 list seat. Also moving 5% from Greens on the List to SNP gives the same 69 for SNP but less for the Greens as you'd expect.
ReplyDeleteBut make the SNP 43% on the list - 1% less than the constituency as in 2011, jiggle the others a little, and the SNP get 71 (3 list seats) with the Greens on 11. No need for BHA2 and a safe overall majority.
To achieve an overall majority, the SNP do need to max the list vote as well as the constituency.
Personally speaking I wouldn't rely too much on Reform up high in the mix.