I was in the second row from the front at the afternoon session of the SNP conference in Aberdeen today, when the party made its fateful decision on independence strategy. In this video I give you a sense of what the atmosphere among delegates was like, and set out my own (quite deep) concerns about the implications of the decision.
Apologies for the technical quality of the video - as I'm away from home I had to use my phone, and it seems to have 'issues'.
According to Holyrood magazine, John Swinney said "They say a one-party majority is needed for this and I say, challenge accepted by the SNP."
ReplyDeleteDid he elaborate on when exactly "they" said this is required? My concern about all this is not just that the threshold is near certain not to be met, but also that *even if it is met*, there's no reason for Westminster to budge an inch. If they're actually on record as saying that they would submit to a referendum if a single-party majority was achieved, that would give the strategy at least some merit: but my strong suspicion is that Swinney just completely made this up. Anyone know?
Absolutely. If he had a cast-iron deal, that puts a completely different complexion on matters. He needs to come clean.
DeleteActually he doesn't need to come clean - yet. Not till it's very nearly time for the postal votes to come out in April. For the moment, as he says: "nobody knows the tactics I’ll deploy’".
DeleteIt will need to be strong and worthwhile though; the votes of the missing 520,000 Indy voters depend on that, and perhaps a lot more considering Indy support is potentially 60%+ already.
For the moment I'm fully in support. I hope I don't get disappointed and discouraged from voting by nothing more by next May.
Keaton who is “they”. Unless Swinney provides prove it is just more lies from the SNP. They could be anybody. Even Patrick Grady saying the Greens would accept it. How many years more must we put up with this bullshit from the SNP.
DeleteI see liebour and Lib Dem’s supporters are worried.
DeleteSarwar and Cole-Hamilton [or as I call them, Whoopwhoop and God-Muffin] look as comfortable in themselves and Kemi "British" Badenoch - she's no Wolf!
DeleteSwinney said "nobody knows the tactics I’ll deploy’".
DeleteIt' the return of ...
THE SECRET PLAN!
i.e. vote for the SNP, suckers!
SNP doing well at polls.
ReplyDeleteSo to recap, the SNP have made sure Scotland can't hold it's own referendum, they've made sure they can't ever win a mandate to ask to hold a referendum and they've made sure that there are no alternative strategies available.
ReplyDeleteAll they have to do is win 66 seats. In 2011 they won 69.
DeleteOK, so explain how they're going, within months, to increase their list vote from sub-30 to the mid-40s they had in 2011.
DeleteSimples. Avoid waffling about progressive fair gender justice. And make ALL election material and campaigns about Independence, rather than practically totally avoiding it like they did last year losing 38 so-called Independence MPs.
DeleteIt’s delusional to imagine we’ll come anywhere near a majority. My worry is that the polls are missing something why else would a numpty who is incapable of speaking be elected in Hamilton there are other examples of council by elections that Labour have won that they shouldn’t have. Bit worried tbh
DeleteSpot on Rob.
DeleteRob - that does not describe a party of Scottish independence. So the conclusion can only be the SNP
Deleteare now a party of frauds. Some will not like or accept that conclusion.
Re yesindyref2's comment:
DeleteAvoiding waffling about "progressive" gender stuff would just be the start, and they're not even capable of that. Don't forget also that many voters will be offered the choice of the likes of Alyn Smith, Kaukab Stewart, Karen Adam etc. I just can't see such candidates wooing back indy supporters who have drifted away on the back of identity politics stuff.
Who would want to vote for SNP candidates that stood in Buchanan st alongside trans activists holding signs saying they wanted to decapitate people. Only the most extreme SNP loyalists would vote for idiots like Kaukab Stewart and her pal Alison Thewliss who then allowed themselves to be photographed smiling away in front of the placards that promoted killing people.
Delete"Alyn Smith, Kaukab Stewart, Karen Adam"
DeleteAll the more reason for voting SNP on the list, just in case those don't get elected ...
IFS - it says it all about the UK that you can stand in the middle of Glasgow holding up a sign saying you want to decapitate people and have politicians supporting you because it’s trans rights to decapitate people they don’t like but if you protest against a genocide you get arrested.
DeleteLooking at the text of Swinney's motion:
ReplyDelete"Conference therefore endorses an approach to the SNP’s 2026 campaign designed to deliver a mandate that cannot be contested or rejected, which will include… a clear target therefore of repeating the 2011 achievement of securing an SNP majority in the election, with at least 65 SNP MSPs, as the only uncontested way to deliver a new vote on Scotland’s future."
"The only uncontested way"? Whit? When did this happen? Westminster have been notorious for *not* answering the question of what threshold is required for a referendum to be held. I feel like I'm going insane
Where, exactly, in that resolution, does it say Swinney would go begging Starmer or whoever, for a referendum? Nowhere.
DeleteIs there a use of the word "uncontested" which does not mean "undisputed, agreed upon by all"?
DeleteI have now resigned from the SNP, after supporting them for over 50 years.
ReplyDeleteI no longer believe they believe in the sovereignty of the scottish people, only in the sovereignty of those who vote SNP
I will not vote SNP at any future election as i believe they are holding back the cause i have supported for so long.
how i wish Alba were a proper party
we need a new vehicle, but as James has said many times its difficult
Not very convincing. Must try harder to play the disillusioned independence supporter.
DeleteSo, “honest John” has received an assurance from the British state that if the SNP won an outright majority on its lonesome, there would be an “uncontested referendum”. Who were the “they” that gave him that assurance?. Of course, “honest John” won’t say. We can cast aside any notion that an upstanding man of God like John would be lying to us.
ReplyDeleteDeparting for a moment into the realms of the hypothetical, what if John was given such an assurance (not that he will ever divulge the name of the individual who gave such a worthless, verbal commitment)? In the event of an astronomically improbable SNP, outright, solo majority, the British state would shrug its collective shoulders and tell us the opinion of one transitory Prime Minister does not hold the state to ransom. The equivalent does not of course apply to the SNP. Any future leader of the SNP will be held hostage to this utterly unnecessary, self inflicted straight-jacket in perpetuity. Perfidious Albion is a phrase coined two hundred years ago by the French to describe British treachery. Those Frenchies knew a thing or two.
The SNP has revealed its true, devolutionist colours. That much is progress of sorts. How to advance the cause of Scottish independence now?
ReplyDeleteAs long as the SNP exists in some form, it will possess some proprietary claim on the “brand” of Scottish independence due to a legacy, inheritance. The Labour Party still (precariously) hold the “Socialist” trademark despite that being effectively jettisoned in the Blair era.
For the grassroots, independence movement to utterly destroy the SNP is a tall order. The MSM will continue to proclaim the SNP to be the rightful holders of the torch even as they dwindle into irrelevance (in terms of delivering their foundational covenant).
One tiny chink of light in the form of outside assistance may reveal itself. If a Farage led regime were to set up a Department of Government Efficiency, and abolish Short money, the SNP would cease to exist as an entity capable of projecting any legitimacy. The money saved by eradicating Short money is a drop in the ocean in terms of general Government expenditure, but it is just the sort of symbolic move Farage would make.
That is a very topical point, of course. The SNP have a £1M reduction in short money since July 24.
DeleteTheir campaign for HR26 will be on a shoestring budget. The alliance with BiS is purely to access some free labour for next year's election push.
Whatever the party chose to say about independence, they don't have much to say it with.
Anon 8.48. How's the weather in Bath?
Delete11.26am How's the weather in Westminster?
DeleteI doubt very much if even an SNP majority in terms of seats would be enough for Westminster to agree it’s a mandate for a referendum.
ReplyDeleteThey’d say there needs to be over 50% of votes cast.
At least the Bolsheviks secured the revolution by issuing false promises of plurality to the Mensheviks, socialists, and anarchists. Swinney’s putting party before all else is orders of magnitude more treacherous, and dumber than anything the Bolsheviks could conceive of.
ReplyDeleteJackson’s Entry are beyond contempt. Their one remaining ambition is to latch onto the Westminster gravy teat and wallow in comfortable, contented luxury like good little piglets. Short money will see these otherwise unemployable, middle class, parasites in agreeable sinecures ‘till they retire, and tell the grandkids how they swindled a nation out of its rightful sovereignty in the name of their own venal ambition.
So the bbc bring on Douglas Alexander to attack the snp attack the party and the FM. Funny that. Just coincidence.
ReplyDeleteDouglas Alexander? Oooooh, scary political titan. Like being attacked by a marshmallow.
DeleteGeissler on the bbc hardly interrupts Douglas Alexander compared to the First Minister of Scotland. Alexander is such a snide individual who founded his political career on the shoulders of his dad’s pal Donald dewar along with his sister Wendy. The reek of old and new labour.
ReplyDeleteAnd now we have Dame currran a socialist apparently who said during the referendum Vote No to stay in the EU.
ReplyDeleteCurran's Comedy Cavalcade. The powerhouse politician who knows what 'Realpolitik' means. Impressive.
DeleteFrankly this is just more of the last 12 years. You are right James to have deep concerns.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP is an anti independence party at its heart. It has been since Sturgeon took over. It is also now utterly centralised and undemocratic. I say that as an ex near four decade member.
The democratic process in Scotland is utterly undermined. At present voters play little to no part in the choices that their so called governments implement.
Look at Britain's support for the holocaust of Gaza. Starmer provided not just the political cover but also the UK military assets to provide intelligence and targeting. The UK also provided billions of munitions. Against widespread public revulsion Starmer has sought to manipulate the media narrative whist at the same time brutalising protestors through arrest and prosecution as terrorists. Who voted for that.
And in Scotland we get the hate crime laws, the unwanted nonsense of the ludicrous woke policies. Who voted for that.
I wish you well James in fighting from within the SNP. Maybe you and others like you will succeed. Maybe you will not. Swinney is the example of how confidence in change looks unlikely.
Best of luck James.
Now that the SNP has tied itself to the mast of HMS Devolution, what constructively is left for the rest of us?
ReplyDeleteCampaign, and educate.
Remember, Sinn Féin was a micro party before the perfect storm facilitated its meteoric rise.
There’s an abundance of talent out there with communication skills, and specialist knowledge in a variety of topics. Folk like Craig Murray, Sara Salyers, Robin McAlpine, Andy Wightman, and many, many others, are towering intellects in comparison to the careerist carpetbaggers that inhabit the pitiful remnants of the SNP.
Bringing the talent together on a common platform had been tried in the past and failed. Too many strong egos, and mercenary motivations among some proved an insurmountable hindrance (at the time).
As a template for such a project, I would recommend the excellent Nation.Cymru. This mixes news, and politics with sport, culture, opinion, and longer form essays.
As constructive as The National is, it is a commercial venture owned and controlled by a company subject to pressures and influences which could withdraw its support at any time.
As if the wee diddly parties are going to achieve independence!
DeleteAnonymous at 11.11. You forgot to mention Peter A. Bell
DeleteAnon & 11:19
DeleteWith rhetorical acumen like yours at their disposal, independence via the vehicle of the SNP is all but guaranteed.
I’m sure the Westminster subsidy junkies of the Irish Parliamentary Party regarded Sinn Féin were a “wee diddly” [sic] party. That is a point made in the post you critique in such a puerile fashion.
A nano party currently in existence, or one yet to constitute itself may, or may not deliver independence. The point being, that they will have the intent of doing so. The SNP has, as of yesterday confirmed that they have zero intention of bringing about independence.
SNP loyalists really are a piece of work. The party having demonstrated that it is no longer interested in achieving independence, the lumpen, vacuous, party stalwarts carp from the sidelines at those who seek to advance the cause.
DeleteAny constructive suggestion to advance the cause is dismissed with pathetic cries. “Wee diddy parties”, “Yoon”, “Brit nat”, and other uneducated, uninformed, wildly inaccurate, and illiterate homilies.
For years now, the SNP have refused to either micturate, or get off the pot. Yesterday, they relieved themselves and showed their true colours.
Big, breaking news to the dunderheids out there. The SNP has relinquished ownership of the independence cause. Others will take up the mantle. The SNP, and its cult like following have negligible moral entitlement to criticise.
anon 11.11 totally agree about Nation Cymru - excellent examole of what's missing up here.
DeleteNot sure what to do after the defeat of yesterday. Clearly I have underestimated the gullibility of SNP activists. A party that just can't en mass see where the UK is likely to go in the next few years and the implications of that for their beloved devolution settlement.
ReplyDeleteI tried to post James's reasoned argument for amending the motion on my local branch Facebook page, and it's pending. The page is not very active, so maybe it was too late, but I have my doubts. From what James says, it sounds like the Swinney loyalists are not up for any debate. #Furious
ReplyDeleteIt really is astonishing how long it is taking people to see the devolutionist shitfest that is the SNP. England is in big big economic trouble if their Scottish colony goes the same way as so many others across the globe. Just look at the state of UK/England's finances and that's with all the resources they take from Scotland. Yet Swinney tries to convince numpties that he has a secret deal with someone important in London. It's absolute nonsense. Even if Starmer put a promise in writing to Swinney they would just replace Starmer as PM and say that promise disnae count now. If you trust Westminster you are either an idiot or a devolutionist.
ReplyDeleteA reminder that Swinney is the so called independence leader who in his own words on TV stated he told Sturgeon NOT to proceed with a referendum.
And even if Swinney gets his goal of an overall majority all he has in his pocket a letter saying 'please can I have that Section 30'. In fairness, he has aready told us that if we look closely at what he said, "... the only uncontested way to deliver a new vote on Scotland’s future..." - that is a Section 30. And no one is going to give us that.
Delete"Yet Swinney tries to convince numpties that he has a secret deal with someone important in London."
DeleteNo he doesn't, and no he didn't. He said no such thing.
You're such a liar IFS
DeleteHe has a secret plan known only to him, based on an assurance from “they” whoever they may be, and all will be revealed once you vote SNP on constituency and then piss your list vote against a wall by voting SNP again, in the full knowledge that it will produce at most one or two list MSP’s. The secret plan will then be revealed if you have done what he asks and a majority of SNP MSP’s are elected. There will of course be no such majority and he will not need to reveal the secret plan after all. But hey, devolution and toilets.
DeleteIFS, still planning on voting ISP?
DeleteIf so, please explain how you think that’ll help the independence cause?
When he says that nobody knows, I presume he means just that. Nobody knows. Otherwise he would have said that he has a secret plan that he isn't going to tell anyone about. That would be seriously creepy.
DeleteAnon troll at 1.33am Care to be more specific. What's bugging you troll?
Delete11.37pm What did he say then?
Ifs,
DeleteI note you haven’t responded to 9:17am!!
2.33pm gold star for you. Well spotted.
DeleteYou are a bit of a saddo. So SNP supporters are just numpties! I can see how you are involved in a party of around8 folk and a dog with 3 legs.
ReplyDelete10.35pm. You just proved you are a numpty by not even being able to put your post in the correct place.
DeleteSwinney says: " Nobody knows the tactics I'm going to deploy if we get 65 seats in the Scottish Parliament. "
ReplyDeleteFinally something I can agree with John the Redactor Swinney. Really, I mean really nobody, knows these tactics and that includes the Redactor Man. Bookies should run odds on different scenarios. My favourite is for Swinney to resign, run away and write a book entitled:
My Life in [redacted]
I wish your posts were totally redacted then we would not have to put up with the utter BS you write here ya numpty.
DeleteIfs- who is it you support again ? How will they get independence?
DeleteAs Alba disintigrates into the dust, there is no other political party in Scotland which is capable of getting our independence and for which the Scottish people will actually vote, apart from the SNP.
ReplyDeleteThat is a fact.
Those who still will not accept that fact, are both inconsequential and irrelevant to the Yes Movement and would better serve the movement by crawling away into the obscureness of Campbell's kingdom in deepest darkest Bath.
SNP will win in 2026, will continue to run the Scotland better that the unionists run England and Wales and will also continue to push for a legitimate and internationally recognised independence for Scotland which will allow us to take our rightful place in the EU and wider world.
Your final paragraph is disingenuous, for the reasons I set out in my video on Saturday night. There is no such thing as "the wrong way to become independent" that would prevent us from joining the EU. If the UK government recognise Scottish independence, so will all EU states. If the UK government do not recognise Scottish independence, then we are not an independent country and the whole question is academic.
DeleteAnon at 10.54am “ legitimate” - there speaks the devolutionist mindset. This suggests that Scottish self determination and Scottish sovereignty is only legitimate if England deems to give it to us.
Delete“ Continue to push” - so continually asking for a sec 30 knowing that it will be rejected is deemed to be “ continue to push”. Pathetic stuff and the sad thing is anon disnae even realise it.
As Alba sinks into its own special little cesspit, there is still only one political party in Scotland which has the public support to defeat all the unionist parties, run Scotland better than any other party on offer and very much better that unionist parties run England and Wales, and form another pro-indy Scottish parliament next year.
ReplyDeleteThat party is the SNP.
Undeniable fact.
Those who cannot accept that fact and rally behind them, are of absolutely no use to our Yes Movement and would be better served scuttling off to Campbell's wee make-believe kingdom in deepest darkest Bath where they will get their new Reform membership cards at a good discount from Stewie.
"and form another pro-indy Scottish parliament next year"
DeleteNot much point in mentioning a pro-indy parliament when the SNP themselves are now saying that will count for nothing.