Could the UK general election of 2028 or 2029 end up being the real crunch-point on independence?

As has been well-rehearsed, a strategic misstep was made at the weekend - a single-party SNP majority is unlikely to be won simply because the electoral system is designed to prevent it, and then we'll be stuck with a precedent that we needn't and shouldn't ever have set.  Undoubtedly at some point after next year's election, we'll try to walk back from that precedent by arguing that a single-party majority isn't actually necessary after all, and our opponents will try to hold us to it, just as they've tried to hold us to "once in a generation".  It will be hard to get over that hurdle.

However, that mistake is now pretty much baked in, so there's not much point worrying about a misstep that has already been made.  As we look for signs of hope, I think one thing we should bear in mind is that if a pro-independence majority is won next year, but without the SNP reaching the self-imposed target of a single-party majority, it's not actually the case that Scottish politics will then go to sleep until 2031.  The next big election after May will in fact be the UK general election of 2028 or 2029.  If Reform are still in anything like the position in the polls they're in now, there will be considerable pressure on the SNP to devise a strategy for using that general election to win independence outright and to protect Scotland from far-right rule, rather than revert to the usual fare of just offering "strong Scottish voices at Westminster".

The logical step would be to say that "we have the pro-indy majority at Holyrood, that part of the equation is already there, so if pro-indy parties win a majority of votes at this Westminster election, we will regard that as an outright mandate for independence".  In practice, of course, we know that John Swinney is for some reason totally allergic to the concept of a de facto referendum in a way that Nicola Sturgeon was not, and even if he's been replaced by Stephen Flynn by then, the same will almost certainly prove to be true of Flynn.  But there will be immense pressure on the SNP leadership to devise some sort of method, regardless of what label they put on it, by which a pro-indy majority of seats and/or votes can be used to win independence.  Given the way the SNP itself has been clear about the apocalyptic threat of Reform rule, it's unlikely that "steady as she goes, let's build towards another crack at the 0.5% chance of a single-party majority in 2031" will be considered good enough.

Unless of course the Farage bubble has burst by then and Reform are no longer leading in the GB-wide polls.  But we'll just have to wait and see about that.

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