Thursday, September 4, 2025

First full-scale Holyrood poll in months puts SNP on course for handsome victory - with Labour and the Tories facing calamities of biblical proportions

Well, it's been a very long wait, but we at last have the first full-scale Holyrood poll for almost three months - and unexpectedly it comes from More In Common.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions:

SNP 37%
Labour 17%
Reform UK 16%
Liberal Democrats 12%
Conservatives 12%
Greens 5%

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:

SNP 32%
Reform UK 16%
Labour 16%
Liberal Democrats 14%
Conservatives 12%
Greens 8%

Analysis to follow shortly...

13 comments:

  1. Alba no longer registering?

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  2. No massive uptick for Alba?

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    Replies
    1. What does 'uptick' mean? Did you mean 'uptake'?

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  3. The mash up of votes between the four Unionist parties looks like delivering a pro Indy majority to Holyrood albeit with only about 40% of the vote. An excellent starting point in the run up to Holyrood but we need to do even better. These things can develop a momentum and the SNP need to build on this and encourage those who have stayed away to return to the fold.

    I'm relieved to see Reform's numbers are half of that being reported in England.

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  4. Any information on turnout intentions?

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  5. Righty. As far as I'm concerned the ScotGov paper - and remember it's a ScotGov paper with a foreword by the First Minister of Scotland which is both YES and NO as opposed to an SNP paper, hits the spot.

    The key is "self-determination" which is being denied and in fact totally trashed by perhaps the most undemocratic UK Government in UK history, even including the first one in 1707.

    https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-and-analysis/2025/09/right-decide/documents/right-decide/right-decide/govscot%3Adocument/right-decide.pd

    Next step is for a very strong but succinct and to the point, SNP manifesto for the 2026 election, and we'll be looking for the Indy movement to GET BEHIND IT with near 50% in both constituency and list.

    And then on at least to self-determination and the undemocratically denied right to hold a referendum and decide Scotland's Future.

    And let no foreign government interfere with that right.

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    Replies
    1. Get behind what though, shrimp? The status quo of begging the bad guys and expecting nothing at all?

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  6. 'God is Love' in 2' x 7' wooden lettering is really wierd and unsettling.

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    Replies
    1. There's no video on this post - what are you on about?

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    2. Anon@3-06pm
      Not nearly as weird as your spelling.

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  7. This is encouraging for the SNP - well ahead of the next-ranked political party.

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  8. https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/scottish-parliament?election=2021s&cSNP=37&cCON=12&cLAB=17&cLD=12&cGRN=5&cREF=16&rSNP=32&rCON=12&rLAB=16&rGRN=8&rLD=11&rALBA=1.65&rREF=16&output=seat-gains-and-losses#Scotland

    Hung - SNP short 4. But for instance:

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/scottish-parliament?election=2021s&cSNP=44&cCON=12&cLAB=13&cLD=12&cGRN=5&cREF=13&rSNP=44&rCON=12&rLAB=14&rGRN=5&rLD=11&rALBA=1&rREF=12&output=seat-gains-and-losses#Scotland

    SNP win by 5. So they need to get back some from reform, persuade some from greens on the list, and kidnap some more from labour.

    It's a doddle. Over to you, SNP conference and Cool Hand Swinney.

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  9. Not sure how many constituency seats Scots Greens will contest, anyone better informed than me on that? Assuming many seats are not contested by them (or is that just a WM thing?), then we can expect a lot of the constituency voting intention for the Greens to end up as being SNP votes where there is no Green candidate.

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