Make that a double: both SNP and Plaid Cymru lead the seismic subsamples in latest YouGov poll

Another week, another very solid result for the SNP in the Scottish subsample from YouGov.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov / Sky News, 20th-21st July 2025):

Reform UK 27% (-1)

Labour 23% (+1)

Conservatives 17% (-)

Liberal Democrats 15% (-1)

Greens 11% (-1)

SNP 3% (-)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 34%, Reform UK 21%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 11%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Greens 6%

Welsh subsample: Plaid Cymru 27%, Reform UK 26%, Labour 22%, Greens 14%, Conservatives 6%, Liberal Democrats 2%

YouGov's Scottish subsamples are of course unusual in that they are correctly structured and weighted, but I'm not totally sure whether the same is true of their Welsh subsamples.  When they first introduced Scotland-specific weighting a few years ago, they gave the impression that the same wasn't being done in any other geographic subsample, but it wouldn't surprise me if they've introduced Welsh weighting since then in the interests of greater consistency.  Either way, it's great to see both the SNP and Plaid Cymru in the lead with less than a year to go until the devolved elections.

Believe it or not, the Tories' showing in the Scottish subsample is actually unusually good for them - it's not all that often these days that they're in double figures or ahead of the Liberal Democrats.  But they're probably just being flattered by normal sampling variation.

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