Find Out Now poll shows left-wing voters are gonna withdraw their Labour of Love, they're gonna strike for the right to get into Keir's cold heart, they ain't gonna vote for Keir no more

With apologies to Pat Kane (who I've just remembered I did a podcast with *twelve years ago* - where does the time go?), but I can't think of more appropriate words for a poll that for the first time shows a plausible route by which the Labour party could, essentially, be on the way out.  Craig Murray made an interesting point a few weeks ago - he said that at the end of this period of flux Britain would end up with two leading parties, one of which would be right-wing and one of which would be progressive, but there was no particular reason why those two parties would necessarily be Labour and the Tories.  They could just as easily be, for example, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.  As this poll shows, another possibility is Reform UK and a radical left party, or Reform UK and a Green/radical left alliance.

Hypothetical voting intentions if a Corbyn/Sultana left-wing party is set up (Find Out Now, 9th-10th July 2025):

Reform UK 34%

Conservatives 17%

Corbyn Party 15%

Labour 15%

Liberal Democrats 9%

Greens 5%

This poll suffers from the same problem as all hypothetical polling - although I haven't seen the question wording, it'll almost certainly have had to draw special attention to the Corbyn party to explain the options that were being provided, which may well have artificially boosted the party's support.  But I still think this is bad news for Labour, because it vividly demonstrates which parties stand to suffer if Corbyn gets above non-trivial levels of support.  Those parties are Labour and the Greens.  It might just be enough to put the next general election beyond Labour's reach.

That said, one reason to be sceptical about these numbers is that they show Reform doing markedly better than in Find Out Now's conventional polling, and I can't think of any obvious reason for that.  As far as I know the data tables haven't been published yet, and a touch of caution may be warranted until they are.

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