One of the curious features of YouGov polling since "the Kendall event" is that Labour had until now remained consistently in first place even though their vote share was hovering at or close to their post-election low of 23%. That's surprising, because Reform were in first place in four consecutive YouGov polls in February when Labour's vote share was sometimes as 'high' as 25%. The obvious conclusion to draw was that Reform must have slipped back a bit too, and that Labour's newly-lost voters were going to other destinations like the Greens. That's no longer getting Starmer off the hook, though, because Reform have now taken the lead with YouGov for the first time in around two months.
GB-wide voting intentions (21st-2nd April 2025):
Reform UK 25% (+2)
Labour 23% (-1)
Conservatives 20% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Greens 10% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 32%, Reform UK 23%, Labour 14%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Conservatives 9%, Greens 8%
Look at the Liberal Democrats in the GB-wide figures - they're now just four points behind the Tories and only seven points behind Labour. We've talked quite a bit about how the next election could see the breaking of the Labour/Tory duopoly that has existed since Labour overtook the Liberals in the 1920s, but it's no longer just Reform that are threatening to break through. Remember that Labour are not really in mid-term yet, so the real depths of their unpopularity could be yet to come. Might there eventually be polls showing them in fourth place? I'm not predicting that, but it's certainly not impossible.
The Scottish subsample obviously looks highly significant in a number of ways - the big gap between Reform and Labour, and the Tories reaching the existential crisis territory of fifth place. But remember that although YouGov's Scottish subsamples have more credibility than those from other firms, the margin of error is still exceptionally large, so it's not possible to be sure that Reform are even in second place.
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You can catch up with the latest episode of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I found out more about the IndyApp and the new "Get Counted" campaign for independence, on the embedded player below, or via this link.
The SNP are back baby!
ReplyDelete32% - what a clown you are Declan.
DeleteOctober 1974 election SNP got 30.4%. Back to the 70’s that’s where Sturgeon/Yousaf and Swinney have taken the SNP.
Back on your knees in front of sheridan for you.
DeleteBack to WGD for you Declan.
DeleteAway back to Wings yourself.
Delete6.42pm back to jail for you.
DeleteThat numpty Declan ( the Irish Skier version) just loves to come on SGP and make a fool of himself.
DeleteReform being second place in Scotland, is that likely?
ReplyDeleteAye, if they give lunatics the vote.
DeleteThe notion that Scotland is immune to the far right is comforting bullshit. Right up there with the idea that one more mandate and we’ll be free.
DeleteKeep the head. An initiative is coming.
DeleteFantastic news. Good to hear this.
DeleteI’d be curious to see polling conducted after Swinney’s summit.
ReplyDeleteIf I were Farage, I’d be absolutely delighted with the attention it brought to his party — it plays straight into the anti-establishment narrative. I honestly don’t see how anyone could view it as anything other than a gift to Reform.
Which may have been the intention - a strong Reform probably works in the SNP's favour.
DeleteBut there are the parallels to watch out for. I don't think of them as events. I think of them as essential attributes, like an accent of lightness of step.
DeleteFarage even decided to throw a spanner in the works by saying that he would prefer the SNP to remain in power at Holyrood rather than support a Labour-led government under Anas Sarwar.
DeleteMcconnachie will be delighted as well.
DeleteFarage is a pound ship disruptor. He says what gets him attention and/or cash. That’s it.
DeleteDon't call Farage a pound ship (or even pound shop) disruptor. Sinister Russell Brand coined the phrase on TV. It was fine was one programme, but let's try and think up something else.
DeleteAnd by the way what does that pretentious crap at 3:37 mean? Does the writer even know?
DeleteI genuinely don’t understand how some people still don’t see it — Farage wants the attention. He thrives on it.
DeleteThe more the spotlight shines on him and Reform, the happier he is. He's dominating the headlines and has successfully dragged Reform into the centre of the national conversation.
Those pushing summits or public campaigns to "stop the far right" are playing right into his hands. They're amplifying his brand and feeding the narrative that he’s the one shaking up the system.
Honestly, anyone who can’t see that is politically naïve at best — or, frankly just an idiot.
Really?
DeleteLabour trying to virtually ignore him in England is working well, is it?
Labour are screwing up and not offering any potential hope for the future. The only way to combat and win over someone like Farage is by offering a better alternative for the electorate to vote for.
DeleteFueling fear is counterproductive. The Democrats tried that in the US, how successful were they?
Scots already have a better alternative than Farage, in the present Scottish Govt.
DeleteLook at the policy differences.
Those who are so blind as not to see that, are dumber than the dumbest dummy in a dummies parade.
Anon @ 5:44
DeleteHow the heck can the guy who cheerleaded for and landed us with a calamitous Brexit offer hope for the furure to anyone?
What more evidence is needed that Farage is a total idiot?
Again, just look at the U.S. — after a chaotic first term and the most violent end to a presidency in modern history, you’d have to be out of your mind crazy to think Trump would be back four years later and become the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote… yet here we are.
DeletePeople said Brexit would be the end of Farage too — that he'd served his purpose and fade away. Now he’s back, grabbing headlines, reshaping the conversation, and positioning himself as the outsider once again. Underestimating him now would be just as stupid.
He remains a total idiot, but I might underestimate the number of other total idiots who would vote for him and his idiotic party.
DeleteMiddle mass at 4.14. Russell Brand? Nope, not my thing. I’ll bow to your expertise on all things Russell Brand. But let’s have your novel witty writings please, especially more of the spelling error police stuff. Now that’s top quality. My comment was on Trump. Yours was a snide ad hominem. Take a wee look at yourself.
DeleteA good result for SNP as it is well in the lead.
ReplyDeleteAnd I hear that John Swinney is planning an independence initiative in January 2026.
DeleteFantastic news. Good to hear this.
DeleteGlad the SNP have hit the ground running.
DeleteExcellent news, independence could be coming quicker than any of us could have dreamed of.
DeleteI don't even think it's too presumptuous to say that John Swinney is probably the best First Minister we've ever had.
Delete5.25pm you are probably the poster who said Yousaf was the best ever FM.
DeleteFantastic news, this will have IFS spewing lol.
ReplyDeleteI get excited by spewing. I might scream.
DeleteTwiffin ... you do a lot of screaming.
DeleteIts Declan again at 4.56pm. What a clown.
DeleteIFS:
ReplyDeleteDo you know whether the strong showing for Reform present is primarily a product of Labour / Conservative weakness or a positive vote for Reform policies as such?
I’m not IFS, but the question answers itself, does it not? The Tories blew it, Labour has now too, and everyone in England is scunnered with the lot of them. Here in Scotland, we throw the SNP into the mix: we’re well and truly scunnered with them and all!
DeleteBut why?
Farage, like Trump, le Pen and AfD and all the rest is simply a “FUCK YOU ALL!” alternative that gets appealing when mainstream politics (neoliberalism) fails the public and they feel it.
That daftie hug-a-blackshirt fringe doesn’t get anywhere in times of real crisis like the financial meltdown of 2008, or the terrifying global collapse at the height of the pandemic. But now that inumbent conservatives the world over are falling out of favour, the voters are more angry than anxious.
A wrecking ball appeals to them, even though they know it for what it is.
You would have thought they would have learned a lesson after the wrecking ball of Brexit wrecked their economy.
DeleteThe latest Find Out Now poll is approaching extinction level numbers for Labour. 8 points behind Reform.
ReplyDeleteWhy the hell would any rational person in Scotland vote for the man ( and his party ) who landed us with the most disastrous, costly, ridiculous, self-harming event in living nemory - Brexit?
ReplyDeleteIt really is beyond belief that some folk could so stupid as to give Farage another bite at the cherry when he has already demolished the cake.
This could be crunch time coming for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteIf they win in '26, but stick to being just a more humane option within the Union, what happens if Farage - with a few Tories in tow to cover his Trumpian backside, wins in the UK ?
How long will devolution last then ?
Mr Swinney and his comfortable chums need to understand that we have to be out of the UK pretty damn quick however lumpy and 'impolite' the method of exit may have to be.
Tick Tock !
Alba will save Scotland 😉
DeleteLorna Slater will save Scotland. She is Holyrood's most talented politician.
DeleteNo she ain't Ash Regan is.
Deleteswinney needs to crack down on the far right seagull menace
ReplyDeleteTrump the dealmaker - "I will get a Russia-Ukraine peace deal on day one of my presidency".
ReplyDelete100 days later, Trump is begging 'Vladimir to Stop' after yet another deadly Russian attack.
Trump the businessman - Goldman Saachs says the US will lose up to 90 Billion dollars this year due to a dramatic fall in tourism and sales of American merchandise.
Trump is an unmitigated failure in everything he touches.
Any British political party or politician who thinks Trump is worth copying as some sort of role model, is as much of a nutjob as that orange clown.
By pure coincidence, Brexit (driven by Farage and his Brexit Party) is costing the UK £100 Billion every year, according to Bloomberg.
DeleteFarage is Trump's toy boy.
The thing is Trump will have made a pile of money from his disasters. Some politicians don't care about anything else.
DeleteThe independence initiative is a really exciting prospect. I remember the SNP's Summer of Independence fondly. Great times.
ReplyDelete8.36pm are you in a care home?
DeleteA care home in Bath.
DeleteAh yes, the summer of independence. It really shifted the dial. Let's hope next year's independence initiative is just as successful.
DeleteWe'll need the ISP for that !
DeleteExciting times indeed.
Delete