The day that Labour and the Tories both moved to the right - and Scottish independence arguably became more likely as a result

What I found the most significant part of the Tory leadership election last year was Robert Jenrick's unequivocal promise to remove Britain from the European Convention on Human Rights.  That seemed to me to open up a real possibility that Britain would leave the ECHR before 2030, thus offering the SNP an unexpected second chance to use "Brexit Part Two" to win independence for Scotland, having squandered the golden opportunity of doing it with "Brexit Part One".

Of course Jenrick came up short, and events seem to have overtaken that episode anyway with most polls now showing Reform UK, who want to leave the ECHR, with a higher vote share than the Tories.  But as it happens Jenrick's vanquisher, Kemi Badenoch, who had never entirely ruled out pulling Britain out of the ECHR herself, has today radically changed her emphasis by saying she'd be likely to do it at some point.  So it may well be now that regardless of whether Labour's main opponent at the next election is Reform UK or the Conservative Party, defeat for Starmer will open up the "Brexit Part Two" opportunity and the SNP will need to be ready for it.

I know some will argue that voters don't give a monkey's about human rights treaties and human rights courts, but I do firmly believe there's a non-trivial segment of the electorate - liberal, relatively affluent voters who have stuck with No so far - who will be appalled.  For good measure, Badenoch has also raised the possibility of leaving the International Criminal Court, which will outrage the same voters, and if the SNP stress that an independent Scotland would immediately rejoin both the ICC and the ECHR, enough people may cross to the pro-indy side to give Yes a stable majority.

Meanwhile Labour themselves have also moved to the right in a way that would have been unimaginable even in the Blair years by boosting military spending specifically by cutting overseas aid.  I suspect they believe that in this Trumpian, post-morality, transactional world, this is some sort of ingenious step because it prevents voters themselves feeling the squeeze to pay for military adventurism in Ukraine and elsewhere.  And it's impossible to deny that Reform wouldn't be prospering unless there were a lot of voters out there who will thoroughly approve of passing the pain on to poor people in other countries.

But again, there is a subset of the electorate comprised of idealistic voters, some of them young but not all of them, which will see this as a crossing of the Rubicon that means Labour is no longer the party they thought it was.  In England, some of those voters may defect to the Greens and simply never come back.

I gather the three main London parties were all patting themselves on the back in the Commons today for their 'maturity' in creating a consensus for Starmer's choice to favour bombs over humanitarian aid.  I'd suggest that there's an opportunity for the SNP to flag up for voters what was lost when the Lib Dems overtook the SNP in July to reclaim third party status at Westminster.  Not only are questions going unasked on vital issues like Gaza, but there's no longer a leading voice in the chamber to puncture the toxic unity when the London boys gang together and get it all wrong yet again.

*  *  *

I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 last month, and so far the running total stands at £1631, meaning that 24% of the target of £6800 has been raised.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE.  Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk