Sunday, February 9, 2025

Labour slump to new post-election low in Opinium poll - plus Alba civil war intensifies as Ash Regan blasts the MacAskill leadership as a "vacuum" that has led to "chaos" and "drift"

In a sense, this weekend's Opinium poll has bucked the trend of a Reform UK bandwagon, because it shows Reform down a point on two weeks ago.  However, that's statistically insignificant, and Reform are still at a higher level than in all but one of Opinium's previous polls.  Where the recent trend is clearly continuing is in the ongoing slippage of Labour, who have dropped to a post-election low of 27% with Opinium, and remain only one point ahead of Reform.  Bear in mind that Opinium have been pretty much the most Labour-friendly pollster in recent times, so 27% is worse for Labour in an Opinium poll than it would be in a poll from another firm.

GB-wide voting intentions (Opinium, 5th-7th February 2025):

Labour 27% (-1)
Reform UK 26% (-1)
Conservatives 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-)
Greens 8% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

*  *  *

Anecdotally, I've heard that Ash Regan's interview with LBC went down very poorly with rank-and-file Alba Party members, probably because it was seen as disloyalty to the MacAskill leadership and perhaps also to the Salmond family.  However, she's doubled down now by posting a TikTok video with the same message - she starts by describing the MacAskill leadership (although she doesn't mention him by name) as a "vacuum" which is causing "drift" and "chaos".  If consistency is maintained, that presumably ought to lead to her referral to the Disciplinary Committee for possible expulsion from the party, because her ally McEleny has over the last year been using any sort of minor criticism of the leadership as an all-purpose excuse to pretend "injury" has been caused to the party and to get people expelled.  Rather brazenly, though, in the very next breath Ms Regan says she wants to become leader so she can "restore discipline".  The subtext seems to be "lots and lots of discipline, please, but not for me or Chris, obviously".

And the question must surely be asked - after a year of the McEleny Purges, and in the context of the party leader and the General Secretary currently both using the disciplinary machinery to try to get each other expelled, just how much more "discipline" can the Alba Party actually take?  What it really needs now, surely, is a good deal less "discipline", and the introduction of normal, mature politics whereby people resolve their policy and strategy differences by debating each other and then a vote being held.  Quaint, I know, but I do believe the concept of democracy has some real potential if it's ever given a chance.

It's also worth noting that Ms Regan keeps using the soundbite "Scotland needs a real independence party not a sideshow" but without specifying that the party in question necessarily has to be Alba.  That's arguably consistent with my theory that she and McEleny have a Plan B up their sleeve of launching a new party if MacAskill wins the leadership election.

122 comments:

  1. Scotland doesn’t need Alba, and neither does she.

    But does anyone else need her, I wonder?

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    1. Does she or her partner McEleny get an income from Alba?

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    2. McEleny was an employee so was one of the few to get a salary from Alba. That may have stopped with his suspension, or maybe they still have to pay him for legal reasons.

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    3. "We need her !" - the ISP.

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    4. That question was so masterful!! I sometimes point in different directions when I'm trying to work things out.

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    5. If he is suspended then legally he has to continue to be paid his full salary

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  2. Mceleny is an employee of Alba and also a staffer for Regan so is doing quite well financially. For now.

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    1. McEleny is not ‘a staffer for Regan’. Alex often sent him to Holyrood because when Ash joined Alba, Alex now had a platform at Holyrood

      This attempt to tie Ash to the unpopular McEleny is a smear.

      Ash saw shenanigans in the attempt to remove McEleny from his job. He has been paid as General Secretary of Alba since the start of fhe party.

      After last year I’d have thought resigning because due process is not being followed and let face it. Alba not following due process is hardly a surprise. Should be a positive for Ash

      Despite the fact many people will believe McEleny deserves all he gets

      I’d also say that McEleny was always the monkey never the organ grinder
      Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh ran the party

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    2. "This attempt to tie Ash to the unpopular McEleny is a smear."

      No it isn't. She resigned from the NEC in protest at McEleny's suspension. That removed any lingering suspicion that McEleny's support for her was one-way and unreciprocated. His fingerprints have been all over her strategic decisions anyway - the Reform UK style rhetoric, the pleadings to Elon Musk, her unwise claims on the front page of the Record, even this new "restore discipline" schtick.

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    3. She resigned from the NEC because due process wasn’t followed.

      Last year when the election result was cancelled and the ordinary member election gerrymandered. Kenny did not resign

      Ash reigned because due process wasn’t followed which given your recent columns I would have thought you’d approve off.

      And I know Ash attended many NEC meetings,

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    4. "And I know Ash attended many NEC meetings,"

      Well, that claim (if true) does not work in her favour, because it would mean she told a direct lie about it in the LBC interview. She said she hadn't attended NEC meetings.

      And if she resigned from the NEC because of a lack of due process, why did she only suddenly start caring about it when McEleny was directly affected by it? Due process has never been followed. (And her own appointment as Women's Convener was a direct breach of the party constitution, let's not forget.)

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    5. Ash Regan is strong, fearless leader. Always stands for truth, for people, for justice. Speaks mind with courage, never afraid to challenge powerful. Many people respect. Alba needs leaders like Ash—bold, honest, ready to fight for better future. She resigned from NEC for proper reason.

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    6. Who knows why she seemed to say she hadn’t attended NEC meetings maybe there was context we didn’t hear.

      I was badly affected by the gerrymandering of the elections and subsequent shenanigans.

      I will say Ash had no part in any of it.
      In fact Ash at least acknowledged my existence and was nice to me at that terrible time.

      I had never done anything for Ash whereas the people I had supported and worked so hard for ostracised, smeared and bullied me.

      So I do not like seeng Ash treated as I was because I know their playbook. She will be getting no support from HQ, and very little information. Meanwhile attacking dogs will be trashing her online and surrogates will be undermining her in the Alba chat groups.

      It seems ridiculous that they will treat their only MSP in this way but those in power in Alba want to stay in power and that is the sum of their ambition.

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    7. I'm sorry you had to go through that Denise it sounds like really tough experience. It's good to hear Ash was kind and supportive during that time. Ash sounds kind and supportive.

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    8. Are those in power in Alba getting an income from Alba?

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    9. They sound like the sort of people who would fit well into the Labour Party, say in Lanarkshire.

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    10. Hasn't Kenny MacAskill been the one with attempts made to suspend him from the Party and smears made against him in the mainstream media?

      It seems odd that some are trying to portray Ash as being the victim in the whole affair, especially when she's publicly came out and essentially defended Chris McEleny who we all know was the one who leaked info to the press and attempted to remove Kenny from contention.

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    11. You think you know it was McEleny that leaked to the press.
      The same way everyone knew that NEC members had abused Alex’s family - no one had. And everyone knew there was a dossier - there wasn’t it was just a misdirection to prop.

      It is all manipulation and lies

      Yes Chris was awful but Tasmina was worse. She was behind all the bullying and expulsions but no one mentions her. Chris like Murrell is the fall guy and Tasmina is Sturgeon

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    12. I mean emails were leaked to the press to damage Kenny and it's known Chris McEleny emailed a group of senior Alba members to say that MacAskill faced “allegations of bullying and harassment” and it's known McEleny attempted to suspend Kenny from the Party.

      It doesn't take a genius to put two & two together.

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    13. Perhaps emails were released to the press to get sympathy and ensure support for Kenny MacAskill. You're ignoring the reverse psychology strategy - which always relies on knee-jerk surface impressions being the instant 'take'. Only very very clever people adopt this one - because it always works as you'd never in a month of Sundays look in the direction of potential orchestrators!

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  3. Hey James,

    You present a compelling argument that Ash Regan’s advocacy for “discipline” is fundamentally contradictory, given her alignment with Chris McEleny, who has been instrumental in orchestrating the party’s extensive internal purges. If even minor dissent has previously been deemed sufficient justification for expulsion, it is difficult to reconcile why her characterization of the leadership as a “vacuum” fostering “chaos” would not warrant similar repercussions. The ongoing spectacle of the party leader and General Secretary actively attempting to orchestrate each other’s removal only exacerbates the perception of Alba as mired in dysfunction. Furthermore, your observation regarding Regan’s ambiguous references to a “real independence party,” without explicitly affirming Alba as that vehicle, raises legitimate speculation. If she and McEleny are indeed cultivating a contingency plan to establish a separate entity, that would certainly contextualize their actions. At this juncture, what Alba requires is not further factionalism but a recalibration toward constructive political engagement and substantive ideological discourse.

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    1. Thank you for converting my views into AI waffle, greatly appreciated.

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    2. Like David Francis the AI clearly cannot master or understand paragraphs.

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    3. Or in the case of IFS the concept of thought.

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    4. Anon at 2.35pm - being a numpty your thought for the day is obviously hard work. Have a wee rest.

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  4. Chris and Tas are sooo 2024!
    And Ash should be replaced by a younger feistier woman whose not afraid to communicate.

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    1. You Shaz
      You and Columbo can be the Posh and Becks of Scottish Politics
      The new Nicola and Peter

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    2. Obviously unable to have a grown up relationship with others

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  5. Reasonable points but worth noting that Ash Regan's call for discipline does not necessarily clash with support for Chris McEleny. Past actions do not mean no change can happen. Party needs strong leadership, not silence. Saying leadership is weak is not same as breaking rules. Regan may want to fix party, not split it. Strong plan, not more fighting, will help Alba grow.

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    1. Also, as leadership candidate, she has right to challenge problems in way ordinary members cannot. Strong plan, not more fighting, will help Alba grow.

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    2. I think we all want change. You're kicking at an open door.

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    3. Carole-Anne PuffnidgeFebruary 9, 2025 at 12:45 PM

      You needn't kick my door. It's always open for you. [Pronouns: I, me]

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    4. Wonder if Ash will prove James wrong in that case. If she losses the leadership will she support Kenny, stay and attempt to push for reforms from within (as the Parties only MSP she'll still have significant influence) or will she pursue a 'it's my way or the highway approach ' and resign from a Party after losing a leadership election for the second time.

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    5. It's hard to imagine that Putinbots would bother with all this, but the OP does sound very good in a Russian accent

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  6. Scotland First or For Scotland
    -is the name we need standing on the list no Alba, no ISP, no SNP!
    No policies !! That’s important
    Just a mandate to ask the SCOTTISH people
    1 how they want to be governed
    2 what relationship with Europe
    Nothing else will work
    Simple democracy
    Otherwise nothing happens for at least another decade

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    1. SNP must stand in elections because it is only party with proven voter base and ability to win seats. New party with no policies risks confusion, low support, and wasted votes. Democracy works through clear choices, not blank mandates. SNP can ask people about governance and Europe while also offering leadership on economy, health, and daily life. Ignoring these issues will not win trust. Without SNP on ballot, pro-independence vote will split, helping unionist parties. Real progress needs strength, not vague slogans.

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    2. Amended for you: "SNP can split people about governance and Europe while also offering controversy on economy, health, and daily life."

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    3. Good governance and spelling out the benefits of Indy go hand in hand in the pursuit of Indy. Potentially divisive issues such as E U are for post Indy. It is that clear cut.

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    4. EU membership is part of SNPs package.

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    5. Most people in Scotland wanted to remain in EU. England said no.

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    6. And from these few posts all entirely missing the point you can easily see why and how the Brit establishment have us beaten for the foreseeable future.
      Well done

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    7. Markus Delerius.

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    8. Poor Mark- so we all should resign from our respective parties. Never going to happen although it’s easy to suggest if your are in a wilderness.

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    9. Anon at 2.37pm - where does anyone say you should resign from your party. Another straw man.

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    10. "New party with no policies risks confusion, low support, and wasted votes"

      Reform UK, who according to polling today are on course to win the next General Election would like to have a word.

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  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. Kazimierz of PrzemyslFebruary 9, 2025 at 11:27 AM

      I am very glad to see you deleted that comment. I haven't read it, but I have the feeling it was a nasty piece of vicious in your end oh. Very glad indeed.

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    2. He was talking about Miss Slocum’s pussy. Disgraceful.

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  8. Ash Regan - visiting her local Jobcentre next year.

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  9. It isn't really any of my business but I am a bit gob smacked at how Alba has fallen into a Pythonesque Judean Popular Front. How can such a small party have so many quarrels?

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    1. Shrimp - you have identified the fact that SNP people like you love to say SNP business is nothing to do with non SNP members but here you are and all the rest of them going on about Alba party business. Double standards are rife in the SNP.

      I

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  10. I see the UNITE Union, HQ In London is struggling to promote the saving off Grangemouth as they seem unable to criticise that it is the U.K. government who is mainly responsible for overseeing policy. On the one hand labour are pals of INEOS owner (lives abroad) to support Man Utd new stadium plans on the other we have shyster labour man In Scotland Sarwar tugging the forelock to Starmer.

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    1. Sarwar a classic House Jock. English labour's man in Scotland. Told to lie his face off last summer to help Starmer win and then told to just take the shit when he is confronted by people. He knows he will be rewarded in the future, in some way, by his english overlord - probably the House of Lords. You know the place English Labour are always promising to abolish/reform.

      This shit will just keep happening until Scots accept Scotland is an English colony and take action to change that. Ravenscraig was chosen to be closed while sites were kept open in England. There are oil refineries in England. Grangemouth has a direct pipeline to the Forte field. More tankers will go up and down the North Sea.

      People go on about Trump and his America first policy. In the colony of Scotland House Jocks like Sarwar have an England first policy. Vote Scottish Labour get English Labour.

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    2. IFS spouting his colony nonsense again.

      Dear oh dear, embarrassing or what?

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    3. KC spouting his House Jock nonsense again. Your knees must be killing you with all that grovelling you do.

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  11. Humza Yousaf, ex FM and soon to be ex MSP as he is not standing in 2026 will pick up £52K per annum for the rest of his life for a just over one year stint as FM. I have to acknowledge that Sturgeon does reward her loyal subjects extremely well.

    Yousaf is the person the SNP experts on SGP told us was growing in to the job and all the other silly phrases they come up with. When he calls it a day and rides of with his annual booty these same so called experts, like Mr Kavanagh of WGD will just ignore everything they said.

    They have no credibility. Most of them are now saying the same about Swinney who praised his pal Yousaf and stated it was time for new blood, new ideas etc. A year later Swinney jumps on the FM gravy train. Who's next.

    The Britnats gaslight you about the nature of the UK and the SNP loyalists gaslight you about the nature of the SNP leadership.

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    1. These allowances for former FMs are standard practice and are agreed by the whole Parliament in line with proposals put forward by the Scottish Parliament Corporate Body. They are not proposals put forward by Nicola Sturgeon or any other FM or by the Scottish Government.

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    2. Humza Yousaf showed strong leadership, pushing for fairness and justice in every step. His work focused on helping everyone, making him a key figure in modern Scottish politics. He deserves credit for putting party before self in his resignation last year.

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    3. IFS as usual having nothing to contribute focuses on how to break Scotland

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    4. For getting rid of the iniquitous SNP and Indy destroying kiss arse BHA with the Greens, Yousaf is worth every penny of his pension.

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    5. Anon2:03, as usual having nothing to contribute, focuses on moaning about IFS.

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    6. Anon at 1.51pm - I never said Sturgeon designed these allowances. So you ignore my point and erect your own straw man. Typical head in the sand reply.

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    7. Anon at 1.56pm - typical gaslighting as I mentioned in my post. Thanks for demonstrating it.

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    8. Anon at 2.03pm - you contradict yourself in your own post and that marks you out as a gold standard numpty. Let me help you out - you clearly need it - place the word positive after nothing. There you go your post now makes some sense even though it is wrong.

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    9. Yesindyref2 - and who set up the BHA with the Greens - Sturgeon - and Yousaf is Sturgeon's boy. You are easily impressed. Yousaf is 39years old he could be getting his pension for a very long time. Scotland's very own Liz Truss.

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    10. There’s a guy in the National who keeps calling people numpties. I wonder?

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    11. Anon at 2.39pm - I only comment here. It's good to wonder but do you really need to tell everybody you have that common capacity.
      I get enough hassle from assorted Britnats and numpties on SGP thank you very much.

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    12. IFS which political party do you think is best to vote for?

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    13. IFS - I really don't care who did what with whom in the Ballsroom. Yousaf did us all a favour, including Swinney.

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  12. The timetable for the Alba leadership elections has still not been published. Given the byzantine nature of the nomination process, that is very much in favour of the incumbent, Kenny McAskill. Ash Regan will face a huge last-minute task of collating nominations when the process has not yet been announced. It would not be surprising if nominations were refused because they were on the wrong form, on the wrong day, or not confirmed by a quorate meeting of the nominating LACU. All 20 of them.

    My conclusion?

    Even after McEleny has gone, the person manipulating the last set of elections is still manipulating the election process, keeping quiet in the background and letting the flak fly elsewhere. Who is keeping quiet just now? Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh.

    Look up her history on Wikepedia:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmina_Ahmed-Sheikh#Legal_career

    The section on her being found guilty of professional misconduct is particularly interesting...

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    1. I need control. I need more Jimmy Choos

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  13. I was a party leader a lot of times when I was younger. They were all very successful and a great laugh. Music was great as you'd expect, party tapes, and of course, it was BYOB.

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  14. And James was expelled
    Tasmina was always pulling the strings not Salmond
    It was her party

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  15. No Scots politian should accept a BEM, OBE and the rest. How can she be a republican?

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    1. I know it sounds unlikely but do you think she might consider her own advancement to be more important than any particular ideology

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  16. When is the election? How do you nominate? Is Who put the P into Party?

    Publish the results now! just the winners like last year.

    Miss the rest of the process out as it is a waste of time anyway.

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  17. I think it's inevitable ALBA will split into two different parties, The AL party and the BA party thus splitting the vote in Millport with AL holding onto it's West Bay heartland and the BA holding strong along Marine Parade.

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    1. I'm halfway between the 2 so I'm forming the LB party. Liberal Ballochmartin. I'm going to appeal to Graat Cumbrae's non-binary community and I will be campaigning to abolish all pronouns and replace them with teapots. I will also demand that the British govt recognise New Delhi as the capital of Sweden. I'm on a winner.

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    2. I won’t be shedding crocodile tears over the fragmentation of Alba. I am a rock, I am an Island.

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  18. James, you’ve absolutely nailed it and I am glad you've joined SNP.

    The path to independence depends on a strong, united pro-Indy government, and right now, the SNP is the only party with the leadership, credibility, and public support to make that happen.

    As John Swinney and Kate Forbes continue to rebuild trust and momentum, we must rally behind them to secure a majority and push the cause forward.

    The alternative? A fractured movement, handing control back to unionist parties who will only stall progress.

    The stakes are too high for division—it's time to back the SNP, secure Indy support in Holyrood, and keep the dream alive.

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    1. Genuinely curious: What has Swinney or Forbes actually done to rebuild trust and to offer an olive branch to the wider Yes movement?

      Polls show that around 20% of independence supporters aren't currently backing the SNP. What is being done to reach out to those people?

      There has been a lot of talk of the movement coming together but it tends to be framed more as a demand to back a certain Party rather genuine efforts being made to heal the divisions.

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    2. Look at it the other way round: that means 80% of independence supporters back the SNP. That's a massive achievement.

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    3. When the goal is to get over the 50% line having 20% of that support not backing you raises questions.

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    4. To get 80% of indy supporters is massive.

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    5. Anon@4.05pm - it’s even harder when the goal is an unspecified overwhelming support.

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    6. Ah you're a troll nm.

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    7. All the 20% independence supporters have to do is back the SNP and not bathe unionist parties. Why would you vote for labour as an example?

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    8. Back to the question: What are the SNP doing to get that 20% on side?

      No Party is entitled to the support of any part of the electorate. That's how Labour ended up when they were the dominant Party in Scotland and we know how that worked out for them.

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    9. “ bathe unionist parties” - the SNP has been backed for the last 10 years and provided with multiple mandates for indyref2 and done nothing but try and implement disastrous policies. Now they don’t even want a mandate for independence.

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    10. Wait a minute. Independence support is roughly 50 % and SNP support is roughly 30%.
      So that's 20% of the total electorate.
      Bur the SNP doesn't secure 80% of Independence voters - rather more like 60%, (i.e. 30/50.)

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    11. Thank goodness someone one this thread can count. Yes, it means that 40% of independence supporters don't intend to vote SNP (not 20%). And at the unlikely very most, a maximum of half of them intend to vote Green, not that Scottish independence is anywhere near the core ethos of the Greens (or the core ethos of a lot of independence supporters for that matter).

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    12. To further complicate, there is the matter of people who don't support independence but do vote SNP.

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    13. 7.59pm - would that be the trans community?

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  19. I am going to stand as leader. I'm waiting on nominations opening.

    I might then be leader as everyone resigns. That is what happened last year I ended up on committees as people resigned despite not being elected.

    So that is my plan and it will work in 4 months time I will be leader by default.

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    1. Ghost of John Paul Pope IIFebruary 9, 2025 at 6:08 PM

      And your man will be shouting up the RA while he is deputy.

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  20. Independent Ireland and England's colony of NIreland join forces to defeat England's colony of Scotland at rugby. Never mind, the piper on the roof of Murrayfield was a nice touch and Flower of Scotland was sung with great gusto.

    Never mind, Scotland the colony gets the chance to defeat the great colonising nation England on its own soil very soon.

    Thinking out the box perhaps Scotland the colony needs an independent country to join with it to bolster its chances. Send an envoy over to Norway. These super rich Norwegians probably have lots of time on their hands.

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    1. 18-32 pretty well as expected in fairness. But it did look for a time as though it could be really humiliating. All to play for at Twickers in 2 weeks.

      1 South Africa 92.78
      2 Ireland 91.36 (+0.58)
      3 New Zealand 90.36
      4 France 87.19 (-1.32)
      5 Argentina 84.97
      6 (↑7) England 83.63 (+1.32)
      7 (↓6) Scotland 82.99 (-0.58)
      8 Australia 81.52

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    2. IFS seems obsessed with the word colony.

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    3. Barely in reach of 4th.

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    4. Who do the poor unionists in that invisible nation of N. Ireland cheer for. I guess it must be England.

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    5. Terrible performance by the Scots.
      Defence like Swiss Cheese, no attack worth the name, cannot hold the ball, cannot keep the ball, cannot properly feed the fastest player on ths park - apart from his one try.
      Ireland played well, but were NEVER forced to their top game by a mediocre Scotland.

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    6. KC at 5.33pm - you ARE obsessed with SUBSERVIENCE. I guess you like the SUPERFLUOUS caps David. Posted in your HONOUR!

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    7. Marmaduke Swiffingham-BouldeFebruary 9, 2025 at 6:20 PM

      yesindyref2 @ 5:24

      "Twickers". Oh mummy, we had such jolly fun at Twickers. Daddy hired a nanny for us while he joined some chums for a glass of cider while saying some jolly funny things to sone darkies. We had seven tartan fits laughing.

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    8. Absolutely! There's some good pubs around Twickers, and they're thronged after Internationals or even sevens. So simply beastly that they shut at 11 unless you get a spiffing lock-in.

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  21. To brighten up a dismal sports day - Rangers kicked out the Scottish Cup by 'mighty' Queens Park, at Ibrox 😂😂😂

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    1. It would brighten up a hell of a lot of peoples lives in Scotland if people like you gave up on the utter lunacy of independence.
      The majority of this country are sick fed up of this pathetic nonsense.

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    2. Anon at 6.18 is out in the back door garden burning his rangers scarf. Not a happy hunny bunny.Aww.

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    3. Ragin' Wee Staunch Anon at 6:18 -

      You therefore think that 99% of Countries on Earth which are presently Independent, are "lunatics and pathetic"???

      Get out of your ridiculous, myopic, insular and f#cking DUMB wee BritNAT Yoon-Bubble.

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    4. David Francis is a deluded fool.

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    5. Musk-Campbell Fruitcake CompanyFebruary 9, 2025 at 11:28 PM

      Anon at 8.02 is deluded fool.

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  22. Anon at 5:33pm seems obsessed with his or her colon.

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    1. The Scotch could use Loch Ness for colonic irrigation.

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    2. KC is an expert on colonic irrigation.

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  23. James, why block IP addresses? That is so 2005. I can just jump on my phone ...

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    1. I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. There is no blocking facility on the Blogger platform. If you're talking about something else, I wouldn't even know how to block an IP address. I suspect you're imagining things.

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  24. This is the future for Scotland:.
    https://x.com/PoliticsMoments/status/1884684754424934414

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