It's an odd thing - I can remember constantly saying in 2023 that Survation were producing more favourable results for the SNP than other firms, and yet since the general election in July we've seen the opposite pattern. Survation have failed to show the SNP opening up clear water in Westminster voting intentions in the way that other firms have.
Until now.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Survation):
SNP 33% (+2)
Labour 24% (-4)
Labour 24% (-4)
Reform UK 15% (+2)
Conservatives 13% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+3)
Conservatives 13% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+3)
Greens 4% (-1)
Seats projection: SNP 30, Labour 18, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservatives 3
The seats projection for Labour isn't quite as grim as we've seen in polls from other firms, but that's because they're just above the tipping point at which they would fall away to single digits. Reform UK don't take any seats (yet) because on something approaching a uniform swing they wouldn't have the necessary geographical concentrations of support.
The poll seems to have been commissioned by either True North or the Holyrood Sources podcast (or are those one and the same thing?), but there's no sign from them of the fieldwork dates, and Survation's own website seems to be down at the moment. However, it's billed as the first Scottish poll of 2025, so the fieldwork must have been relatively recent.
It sort of looks like we're in a phase where SNP has held steady on third of the vote and the unionists are split by a new force.
ReplyDeleteWe're still 10% down instead of 15% but it's a start.
There was another well kent pollster analyst who was saying the 2024 GE although good for Labour did present a problem. That being the minimum level of SNP support seems to be about 30% now and although Labour can clearly rise above that level they can also sink well below it.
DeleteThis seems to playing out and that's without SNP support even climbing that much.
Reform assumption of uniform swing is unsafe since it may end up being highly variable across different parts of Scotland, in fact that is what I would expect. Meaning that they could well end up with seats on these figures.
ReplyDeleteImplementing for uniform swing as the base assumption is probably all the pollster can do absent geographical information on Reform's likely vote.
Based on a U.K. projection. Not unreasonable to surmise that a poll for Holyrood would be even better for the SNP if we bring in the 16-18 age category.
ReplyDeleteBy the sounds of it there'll be Holyrood numbers from the same poll, they just haven't been released yet.
DeleteProbably most 16-18 year olds at the next Holyrood election think that the SNP are the only party that ever runs the Scottish government, unless they are interested in the history of a time before they were born.
DeleteEarly days of course, but it is beginning to look like 'The Swinney Effect" has been to steady the SNP Ship and get it back on course for more electoral success.
ReplyDeleteAnd, anecdotally, I have also conversed with several unionist neighbours of mine and even they now rank him above his political opponents up here.
They also appreciate the SNP's efforts in the areas of WFP and WASPI Women, as they fall into the age-category most affected by both those policies.
The only other time I can remember unionist acquaintances being so complimentary about the SNP and it's leadership, was when Nicola Sturgeon was in her pomp.
The waspi women mostly were aware. I've never found it as big a scandal as they made out.
DeleteThe winter fuel allowance limit has been a big Labour loser where I'm from
According the most recent polling on the WASPI Scandal, up to approx 75% of folk in the UK do not agree with you.
DeleteAnd neither do I.
I tend to agree. The whole thing is basically about people being outraged about both sexes getting their pension at the same age.
DeleteNo it's not. Don't be daft.
DeleteAnon at 3:56
DeleteJust ignore that idiot.
75% of folk in the UK, like you and I, know better.
It is about the female retirement-age changeover from 60 to 65.
DeleteAnon at 4:04
DeleteI previously posted the latest and most authoritative analysis of Covid Deaths I could find, on a previous couple of threads on here.
That analysis was carried out by the The UK Chief Statistician and CLEARLY demonstrated that hundreds if not thousands of lives were saved in Scotland, compared to England and elsewhere in the UK proportionately, due, in no small way, to the better performance of the Scottish Govt led by Nicola Sturgeon.
The only 'incredible disgrace' here are ignorant morons who would rather hunt political scalps that look at the facts.
And, as for 'leadership' during Covid, Sturgeon was widely and even internationally lauded as being head and shoulders above her unionist-dross contemporaries on these islands.
Not really surprising, given the utter shite dished up by the likes of that gibbering halfwit Johnson, though.
D Francis@4:27,
DeleteWhat a load of complete and utter bullshit!
Your praise of Sturgeon is beyond ridiculous! How sad.
Anon at 4:41.
DeleteTake your 'argument' up with the UK Chief Statistician.
As far as I am concerned, gibbering idiots like you get no more of my valuable time wasted on them.
People like D Francis are an embarrassment to Scotland.
Delete@4:56, bit harsh tho Francis praise on N Sturgeon is way ott.
DeleteWestminster/Johnston were absolute shit during Covid, caused many unnecessary deaths and enriched themselves and their pals using public funds. That is just a self evident truth. Covid fraud was massive. I posted all this in more detail on SGP during the pandemic.
DeleteCovid deaths in Scotland were less and one reason David chooses to ignore for that outcome is that at the start of the pandemic in the UK when the first lockdown happened there was simply more Covid in England particularly in the SEast of England compared to Scotland. Therefore the lockdown happened earlier re Scotland's Covid infection graph compared to England's. If the first lockdown in Scotland had happened even earlier then more lives would have been saved in Scotland but Sturgeon chose to stick with the 4 nations approach like the good devolutionist she is.
It also goes without saying, in my opinion, if Sturgeon had done the job people voted SNP for - independence - an independent Scotland would have saved more lives. There is no denying Sturgeon was a better communicator than Johnston and worked a lot harder but Johnston like Trump is a very low bar to measure yourself against. Finally, Sturgeon ended up disgracing herself by using the daily public health briefings to defame Salmond in the most vile way and trash the jury in his trial without producing a shred of any new evidence. After saying time after time the daily briefings were for serious health matters she then did the opposite. Shameful and despicable behaviour and showed her true nature.
Like Johnston Sturgeon also deleted her messages during Covid despite promising she would retain all messages. On this occasion she did her own cover up work instead of dumping it on John the Redactor.
30% for the SNP in the general election, 33% in a poll in 2025. As a point of caution, weren't the SNP polling more than 33% just prior to the election?
ReplyDeleteProblems like that are what past vote weighting is there to correct for. You're not comparing like with like.
DeleteO/Topic
ReplyDeleteAnother one bites the dust.
Tulip Siddiq resigns from UK Treasury.
leaving alba is one thing, rejoining the SNP another
ReplyDeleteI didn't "leave Alba". I was expelled from Alba on ridiculously vague trumped up charges. Let's keep our facts straight, shall we?
DeleteSurvation tables are now up from here, though on for UK GE VI as yet:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.survation.com/archive/2025-2/
Reform on an upward trend but SNP holding ground.
ReplyDeleteIf Mr. Swinney and friends can face the reality of needing more than a decent vote to gain independence and start to urgently build a strategy to break away after winning an election then we have a chance.
I'm not optimistic but just maybe. Waiting until Reform is licking its lips in another UK General Election is likely to be too late.
I might even rejoin the SNP if there was any realistic chance of a decent push developing.
Sorry - 4:50 is Alt Clut forgot to change header again.
ReplyDeleteThe Tories are missing DRoss !
ReplyDeleteAren't we all.
DeleteNo
DeleteI understand that economists are saying recent 'market movements' have completely wiped out £10 Billion of 'fiscal headroom' which Rachel Reeves thought she still had.
ReplyDeleteAs a result, it is now expected that the Labour Govt will now 'aggressively target' Disabled People's Personal Independence Payments (PIPs) to save/claw back some dosh.
So.......yet again, Labour seem to be making some of the poorest, most disadvantaged in society carry the can with more 'difficult/tough decisions', rather than the richest and better-off segment.
Allegedly, they are primarily getting ready to do this, in order to spike the guns of Reform UK.
FFS!!!
They are NOT the Labour Party I knew in my youth and Keir Hardie would not spit on them if they were on fire.
Watch for the Labour Vote in Scotland taking a further - deserved ' tumble if this comes to pass.
It beggers belief that 30% would still vote for the rotten to the core SNP!
DeleteLol.
DeleteAnd WHO, exactly, would you suggest they vote for, Anon?
Could do with a wee laugh.....
Your defence of the SNP and Sturgeon in particular is absolutely nuts!
DeleteMuch as I value your totally unbiased opinion, how about answering my question?
DeleteDavid, like KC who he is arguing with, is big on demanding people answer his questions but not so diligent at answering questions put to him.
DeleteDavid is right about the Labour Party. LizTruss created a major economic crisis Starmer is creating his own mini me Labour version. Sadly people like KC have the union flag branded on their arse and even if Starmer nuked Scotland the likes of KC would declare he was happy to perish if it served the needs of England. He would go down singing rule Britannia or no surrender or some other moronic ditty.
They're all awful, all just looking out for themselves.
DeleteCheck out the lobbying and cushy jobs the snp troughers have found themselves. No better than Labour in most cases.
Snp are the best of the main parties, but it's not saying much.
Reeves said she wouldn't put up taxes and wouldn't borrow for everyday spending.
DeleteThere is a reason for that. The debt is too high.
They have to look at cuts somewhere. If it was me, I'd put a ban on pay rises for public sector workers on 60k and above for a year.
It's the eye watering pay bill for well paid public sector thats eating up all the funds.
That would be real Labour. But they're a middle class party now.
I have said many, many times, that all political parties have huge faults, SNP lncluded.
DeleteI consider SNP to be the best of a bad bunch.
You gotta play with the cards you have.....
not the cards you wish you had.
They had fewer faults from 2007 to 2017ish. Then went off the deep end.
DeleteThe old they’re all as bad trope still going strong. Created by the Daily Mail and relentlessly pressed by the MSM and BBC in an attempt to normalise unionist lies, fraud and theft. Aided by useful idiots on here.
DeleteWell said Anon @ 9-35pm I know (and have known ) several
Deleteoops(continuing) SNP MPs ...MSPs.....all are there for Scotland.Never doubt it.
DeleteSo Ifs.......I see tumbleweed blowin' down yer main street.
DeleteWho's gonna luv ya now son?
IFS at 6:00 pm
DeleteWHO is 'KC'?
Never heard of him/her/it?