Technically, this is not the first time this has happened, because Reform UK is legally a direct continuation of the Brexit Party, which held the outright lead in a handful of polls during that mad period in the late spring and early summer of 2019. But this is certainly the first time Reform have been in the lead (or joint lead) since their rebrand.
GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 8th January 2025):
Reform UK 25% (-)
Labour 25% (-1)
Conservatives 20% (-3)
Greens 11% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
So what effect will it have on "liberal No" opinion in Scotland to see Reform UK in pole position? Remember Reform have pledged to leave the European Convention on Human Rights within the first hundred days of taking power. The UK would look like a very different country, very quickly, and to some extent we can already see that on the horizon.
Having said that, we shouldn't necessarily expect to see Reform ahead in the majority of polls in the immediate future, because Find Out Now seem to be more Reform-friendly than most polling companies. But the real significance of this poll may be Reform building up a five-point lead over the Tories. If the perception grows that Reform have replaced the Tories as the leading right-wing party, there may be a tipping-point at which a large chunk of Tory voters suddenly move across to Reform, which in turn could lead to a sustained Reform lead over Labour.
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Time for Scotland to get to hell oot of the UK.
ReplyDeleteIt's coming.
DeleteAnother excuse for BBC to platform Farage.
DeleteInteresting, but not really surprising.
ReplyDelete'The Hard Right' seem to be in ascendency almost everywhere at the moment, so absolutely no surprise to see that at a UK Level with Reform.
Hopefully, Scotland will continue to keep that Political Scum where they belong......OUT of power, up here.
BTW - how did things go at last night's hearing?
Rest assured that considerable information will be released in due course, David!
DeleteAm resting.
DeleteThis can only be good news. However, we should remember that the May, Johnson, Truss cataclysm didn't move the indy dial much, if at all. The COVID response had far more effect, if only temporary.
DeleteIt's great having the opposite side screw up but we need to be thinking how to take the opportunity when it happens. Not sit and wait like last time
Spot on from Jakey.
DeleteLet's start now by developing a rigorous economic case for Indy.
Wishful thinking, platitudes and virtue signalling won't cut it. The real thing is needed, otherwise it will be easily exposed in its non-seriousness.
Scottish Greens need not apply.
Neither do Alba or ISP.
DeleteThe SNP and their less shy Unionist political-journalist associates will do their best to make sure that Alba-ISP groups do little to move the dial.
DeleteSo will Alba and ISP
DeleteYou want a vision of the future : it is Nigel Farage farting on your face for all eternity
ReplyDeleteGreat cover on Private Eye this week with Musk and Farage.
DeleteApparatchiks of false agents around President Jamez have deleted our important information post. We know that El Presidente is far above this.
ReplyDeleteSo you must be prepared for timing of massive retaliation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OylVmbUn3_s
Greene have drawn level with the Lib Dems as well. Things
ReplyDeleteFind Out Now sample population UK 2,076.
ReplyDeleteScottish micro sample.
Con 10%, Lab 18%, LibDem 12%, RefUK 15%, Green 7%, SNP 36%, Plaid Cymru 2%, Other 1%
Good luck finding Plaid Cymru candidates to vote for in Scotland
DeleteGreat to see Plaid finally making inroads in Scotland.
ReplyDeletewhales have been spotted in the north sea recently.
DeleteI think the point is Alba are not even *other* and if Ash Regan has anything to do with it she'll take what's left down with her
ReplyDeleteAh, now, this is an anti-Alba finding that I can like. It allows me to give the London Conspiracy stuff a rest.
DeleteIf I had Musk’s money I’d not be holed up at my laptop tweeting into the early hours. I’d be out skiing the world etc.
ReplyDeleteIt’s weird. JK Rowling is the same; she’s amassed a massive mountain of kid’s pocket money, yet just hides in huge mansion behind a high hedge obsessively tweeting about GRR into the wee small hours. Still at it even though the bill was overruled so nothing will change until maybe independence.
I bet you she’s never, ever even met a transwoman in the loos, never mind been accosted by a fake one. Will be the same for everyone she knows, yet she’s weirdly demented by the idea.
Clearly loads money doesn’t make you happy. Maybe makes you weirdly obsessive though.
Something for James Kelly to consider.
Declan Skier/ Scottish Skier - I read the same post on WGD by Scottish Skier. So why do you not post as Scottish Skier on SGP?
DeleteDisappointed that some see the rise of 'Reform' in England as a positive development for us.
ReplyDeleteDo you really want a hostile, semi fascist state that outnumbers us 10/1 on our doorstep ?
At the very best we would get one, very improvised, shot at getting clear. Bastards of their ilk are unlikely to accept the dismemberment of 'Holy Mother Greater Engerland' without some serious dirty business.
Exactly.
DeleteIf Regan wishes to be leader of ALBA can she tell us if she intends to join another party if she loses and as she has done before. Asking for a cynic.
ReplyDeleteIf Farage embraces islam, it could be unstoppable
ReplyDeleteI wonder who is going to be the first defection from Alba to Refart UK?
ReplyDeleteI wonder who will be the linkmen / women between SNP and the Official BritLabs in the run-up to 2026?
DeleteI’m sure ALBA will sook up to labour/tory as before.
Delete