Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Norstat / Sunday Times, 4th-6th December 2024):
SNP 31% (+1)
Labour 20% (-3)
Reform UK 15% (+1)
Conservatives 14% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)
Greens 6% (-)
According to David, the seats projection is as follows -
SNP 44, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservatives 5, Labour 2
That would effectively put July's general election result into complete reverse, and restore both the SNP and Labour to roughly where they were at the time of the 2019 election - which of course was a landslide for the SNP and an unmitigated catastrophe for Labour. The 2024 outcome would be left looking like a historical blip, whereas Labour had been complacently assuming that the SNP's wins in 2015, 2017 and 2019 were going to be remembered as the aberrations. However, there's a very, very, very long way to go before we see if the reversal actually happens.
Although the SNP's lead is handsome, it has to be said that it's not quite as impressive as the Holyrood constituency numbers from the same poll, which have the SNP in the high 30s, with a sixteen point advantage over Labour. The swing to the SNP at Westminster since the previous Norstat poll (2%) is lower than the equivalent swing on the Holyrood constituency ballot (3%).
Also of note is that Reform have overtaken the Tories in Scotland for the first time, although the two parties were level in the Norstat poll in August.
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I got the figures from the site - 'Stats for Lefties' which I follow on twitter.
ReplyDeleteThey have previously proven to be extrenely accurate in their info and I have no doubt they are this time as well.
In that case they shouldn't be regarded as definitive, because John Curtice usually does the seats projections for Sunday Times polls, and they tend to differ slightly from prediction websites.
DeleteTime will obviously tell, but that site's accuracy is usually very good.
DeleteI don't think you're following what I mean. Stats 4 Lefties does its own projections, so it's unlikely to match up exactly with John Curtice's projection for the Sunday Times (if he did one).
DeleteAnybody that takes this seat prediction seriously has to be a sandwich short of the full picnic.
ReplyDeleteWelcome to first-past-the-post, KC. It's the real deal, I do assure you. Can I sign you up for the campaign for electoral reform now?
DeleteDo you know in the Lords you get 300 pounds and a beefybake. Not quite the full picnic but such is life
DeleteSo not only do we have to obey the laws Ian Botham passes, we have to pay him for the privilege too.
DeleteClass how Beefy will sort it all out. We don't need to worry our weary heads.
ReplyDeleteCheers beefy
In all seriousness, it's shocking that Ian Botham has been made an unelected law-maker simply on the basis of his cricketing skills! Why should we have to obey his laws?
DeleteSimple. We shouldn't.
DeleteBlack rod for PM
DeleteBotham has a law? Don't tell him for goodness sake. He'll start getting ideas.
DeleteUnfortunately that happened long ago.
DeleteIf there were a snap GE (there won't be) I'd be more interested in who the SNP would put forward for election.
ReplyDeleteWith most of the careerist troughers and blue hairs having been cleared out in July I'd like to think that there'd be a continuation of Swinney's quiet revolution. New faces, grassroots representation, focus on indy....
Ah well that’s Christmas over.
ReplyDeleteThe faux celebration that so many participate in has gone. Grim reality is back.
And in less than a week our nonentity of a country will engage in anther celebration. New Year is indeed a time for reflection. A time to look back and a time to look forward. But sadly, it is for so many of us another worthless faux celebration. Truly what so called nation in the best empty barrel tradition craws loudly but the day after resorts to its broken empoverished colonial subservience.
New Year should be a time when we resolve to take action to change the, way our country is forced to live. There are many nations around the world who having taken control of their destiny now prosper making their own decisions.
No New Year resolution to work to, no change. More taxes to fight wars against Russia, to support destruction of Palestine, to militarily engage bombing Sudan, Yemen and other such countries. And more money for the corporate elites. From the two bit Michelle Mone ripping off the NHS for a peppercorn £100 million to the utferly astronomic trillions plundered by the gas, electricity, off shore owned ports and airports to the soon to be privatised NHS, whilst all the time living standards go down. And God bless our feul poor households and pensioners soon to have their pensions cut.
Yes, let us celebrate our faux New Year
You could pick any new year past and make similar doom predictions just with different events.
DeleteThere are positive happening also
Pensioners are wildly more rich than they were in the days when we called new year hogmanay
DeletePick yourself up, Willie. You sound pure depressing. We've turned a corner for sure (or at least bottomed out).
DeleteI'm very positive going into 2025. There's far more to be hopeful about than this time last year. Yes is flying in the polls, the Greens and all their shite are history, the SNP appear to be finally having a period of self reflection under competent, stable leadership.
I'm not pretending indy is just around the corner but at least it seems possible again.
Willie@9:10am,
DeleteDepressing, and nothing but nationalist propaganda!
Next year ask Santa for a dictionary.
Delete