Tuesday, June 6, 2023

For some inexplicable reason, the SNP seem to actually *want* a by-election in Rutherglen & Hamilton West - so have they any chance at all of winning it?

Over the past few months, there's been a part of me thinking "stay off the subject of a possible Rutherglen by-election, so as not to draw attention to a petition that won't necessarily succeed".  However, due to the grotesque unity between the SNP and Labour in supporting the petition to oust Ferrier, it's probably all but guaranteed to succeed, so at this stage there may not be any great harm in looking ahead to the by-election and the scale of the challenge the SNP will now face - partly through their own fault.  Incredibly, fourteen SNP MPs actively voted for Ferrier's suspension today, which is an act of self-destructive virtue-signalling that I have zero patience for.  It's unknown whether Ferrier was responsible for any Covid infections at all, but even if she was, the harm caused by her actions will pale into insignificance compared to the countless ongoing personal tragedies directly brought about by the subsequent irresponsible actions of government leaders, including Humza Yousaf and Rishi Sunak, in dropping all mitigations against the virus.  (I hardly ever blog about Covid anymore, but for the love of God, it's surely blindingly obvious that there should currently be an all-out campaign to clean up indoor air, especially in schools, and that people should at least be given non-binding encouragement to wear masks in the highest-risk indoor environments, for example hospitals or crowded trains.  This stuff isn't rocket science, and nor would it constitute some kind of intolerable breach of personal liberty.)

Anyway, Rutherglen & Hamilton West unfortunately just happens to be one of the most Labour-friendly seats in Scotland, as can be seen from the fact that it was one of only seven Scottish seats Labour took during the Corbyn surge of 2017.  Margaret Ferrier grabbed it back for the SNP in 2019 with a swing of 5%, but that was actually more modest than the national Labour-to-SNP swing of 8%, so if anything the SNP's underlying weakness in the seat worsened slightly (although perhaps that can be partly explained by a one-off incumbency bonus for the outgoing Labour MP Ged Killen).  The SNP will go into this by-election defending a lead over Labour of just under ten points, which means on a uniform national swing you would expect them to hold the seat if their lead in Scotland-wide opinion polls exceeds around sixteen points.  In every poll conducted since Humza Yousaf became leader, the SNP's Westminster lead has fallen well short of that, varying between three and twelve points.  So there are strong objective reasons for Labour being regarded as favourites in this contest.

But in practice it could be a whole lot worse than the national opinion polls imply, partly because trends are often magnified in by-elections, and partly because the witch-hunt against Ferrier that the SNP have helped to whip up will bounce back on one party only, and that party will not be Labour.  If Labour win, it'll really be the margin of victory that commentators will be looking at - because expectations are so low for the SNP, a narrow defeat could even help shore up Humza Yousaf's position somewhat, but a crushing defeat in the region of 20-30 points could genuinely call into question whether Yousaf can survive as leader until the general election.

And a possible wildcard question: will Alex Salmond seize the moment and stand as an Alba candidate?  I have no inside information, so I'll just give you my own opinion, which is that if Alba are thinking of getting involved in this by-election, they should either do it properly or not at all.  There's literally no point in putting up a candidate who nobody has ever heard of "for experience" if that person goes on to take only 1% or 2% or 3% of the vote - it would split the pro-indy vote in a crucial first-past-the-post by-election without shifting the dial one iota as far as Alba's credibility is concerned.  Whereas if Alba puts up a big-name candidate and takes perhaps 15% or 20% of the vote, that could be a truly transformational moment after which voters across Scotland will for the first time regard the party as a serious option.  Yes, an intervention of that significance could help Labour win the seat, and for the avoidance of doubt that would be a bad thing not a good thing, but the trade-off might just about be worth it if the SNP are shocked into realising that they can no longer keep kicking independence into ever longer grass without risking a major electoral cost.  If Alex Salmond doesn't want to stand, though, Alba should sit it out altogether (as indeed should be their default position in the vast majority of first-past-the-post elections).

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I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2023 a few weeks ago, and the running total has now passed £1500.  The target figure is £8500, however, so there's still quite some distance to travel.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue by making a donation, please click HERE.  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.

17 comments:

  1. Suspect SNP will throw the kitchen sink at this one.

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  2. Eck! Make Alba’s, indy’s and Scotland’s stand! Destiny is calling.

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  3. Agree wholeheartedly with the Alba point, James. All in, or not at all. The party members keep saying Salmond is the best asset that Alba have. And in terms of media exposure, they're right. If Salmond jumps into the by-election, the media will lap it up, and it could have a bit of a Farage effect, for lack of a better word. It could really launch Alba in national terms, even if he doesn't win (as UKIP rarely did).

    But if they put up some nobody from the local branch, I'm sorry, but it's both cowardice on Salmond's part, and a tactical howler. Little parties like Alba need by-elections to make the biggest impression possible. They won't get the coverage without THE star name on the ballot. It's probably the most fertile ground Alba will ever have to foment support. It will need Salmond in the spotlight, or it will fizzle away entirely.

    I'm not interested in someone who's going to coast on his past achievements while sniping from the comfort of the sidelines. He's done plenty of (justifiable) sniping in the past few years.

    But now it's time for him to put his money where his mouth is. You don't get a better chance than this, Alex.



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    1. Agree, the only problem is that if he splits the vote a lot of the SNP folk will blame him for losing the seat. However, when you have a political party, you kind of have to start standing against the other (so called) independence option.

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  4. Hope Alba stands. Somebody has to stir things up in Scotland to upset the established parties.

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  5. For once, I disagree that losing the seat to Labour would be a bad thing. Actually, the least-bad result is probably for the SNP to get an absolute kicking - the bigger the defeat, the better the chance that they'll start to take their current situation seriously. And better they take that defeat now, in a by-election that ultimately doesn't matter much, than next year's GE when it does.

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  6. 0ld politics for a new eara, wont work, best let the SNP have a free run, Alba should waite for holyrood elections. Or maybe we need a new party, with fresh ideas and something the voters can vote for. Independence in need more than ever. so why do we keep playing the same games, not saying this by election, if it happens.

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    1. A new party (sigh) . There've been new parties established since the 2014 referendum and their political effect has been minimal.

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  7. Rutherglen is a real tough one for the SNP anyway as the town has a fairly strong Unionist population. This is a town that regularly flies the Union Flag over the town hall, and bedecks Main Street in little Union Flags.

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  8. I agree with Anonymous above that Alba need to stand Alex Salmond and no one else. It is the best and only chance before UKGE 2024 to show that they are something serious.

    However, there's still the hurdle to have more than 8000 voters sign the petition. It needs to be signed in person with photo ID (proxy permitted) and we are at a time of year where the schools are about to break up for summer and few people's minds will be on politics. Given that there's a GE next year, one more year or 18mo of Margaret Ferrier as your MP isn't much to bear. So I think that there is only a 50/50 chance of the threshold being reached.

    That will scunner Labour and the SNP will lrobably breath a sigh of relief.

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    1. If you look at the history of these petitions, the chances are much, much, much higher than 50/50 when multiple parties are in support. You'd think 10% of the entire electorate would be a formidably tough target, but in practice it isn't.

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  9. There is a crying need (and place in the electoral market for a credible new centre left, pro-Indy party.
    I am certain there are hundreds of thousands of disenchanted SNP, ex-SNP, Labour, ex-Labour voters, (who are perhaps unconvinced by the Greens or Alba) and are looking for a new home, a new vehicle for Indy and achieving meaningful change and progress in Scotland.

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  10. Any win for Labour will be presented by them as a turning point and that Scotland is pining for the glory days of Jack McConnell and Cathy Jamieson. But given the SNP's plight, the stage in the electoral cycle and the particular circumstances of this by-election, anything but a substantial Labour victory would be a pretty bad sign for them.

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  11. Wondering if the SNP is dumbb and dumber ? They are.

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    1. If there’s one thing the SNP does well now, it’s “Burn the Heretic!”

      I’m no fan of Ferrier, but the turkeys voting for Christmas here are motivated by brand purity over any sense whatsoever of tactical nous or loyalty.

      It’s the same thing that makes them so insufferable now in government and such a roadblock on Indy.

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    2. None more so than Margaret Ferrier.

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