Monday, September 7, 2020

Guardian piece claims support for independence is running at 56%

James Morrison on Twitter directed me to an opinion piece in the Guardian containing an apparent nugget of information - 

"Ministers are increasingly nervous that a Scottish breakaway is on the cards (the cabinet was recently briefed that the latest opinion polls show 56% of Scots would vote for independence, and 44% to stay in the UK)."

James interprets that as meaning private polling is showing an average Yes vote of 56% - which of course would be slightly higher than the public polls have shown over the summer.  However, there's no actual mention in the article of any private polls, and it could just be that the briefing was about the polls we already know about, and that the figures cited are slightly inaccurate.

That said, private polling does go on.  Members of the YouGov panel are periodically asked about independence using a non-standard question, and the results rarely see the light of day, so that must be either private polling or for internal use.

60 comments:

  1. If we take this as the average of some UK Gov/Conservative party internal polling or even it it is a one off 56% poll its very encouraging.

    The twitter echo chamber is full of disgruntled indy supporters wanting Indy yesterday. We all want it ASAP to help us avoid the multiple train crashes coming. The issue is we need to persuade the country, and we have only relatively recently done that.

    The pace seems to have annoyed a few and in some extreme cases even driven them to claim they will vote to stop Independence (Not voting SNP for example).

    But the tactic has been right. The country has tipped over the edge. There is no going back. I believe Scotland will be Independent much quicker than many assume.

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    Replies
    1. Al (should have signed this)

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    2. I think the tipping point has been Covid. A very stark and practical example that shows the importance of local control. Folk can see how London despise citizens need having to be to the fore for so long.

      They can plainly see Scotgov not perfect, but willing to apologise/empathise/communicate. It goes a long way to proving Scotgov actually does care about the most important issue of all.

      I think the "don't knows" and soft Yessrs, have finally firmed up over last 6 months. They can also see the train crash of No Deal hurtling our way.

      It's just all adding up for that "soft" group. Boris is our best asset.

      I think Sturgeon wants a solid 60%, she would never settle for 51%.

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    3. As I've always said, waiting for a sustained 60% is tantamount to abandoning independence altogether. Very unlikely to happen, even at this stage.

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    4. Painting this in a pro indy 45.... 50...55....60% situation is arbitrary IMO.

      You need to be convinced YES will win. That wasn't the case until very recently. It is now.

      How we play this is tricky though.

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  2. I agree, I think it will happen sooner than many realise. There is much work to be done, to prepare for the new country, and to convince and carry, in the best way possible, those who remain reluctant.

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  3. Something has clearly tipped the balance in the minds of the Unioinists of late. For example Andrew Neil's strong twitter reactions the other weekend about who gets to vote in a future referendum was clearly based on something - it was much more forceful than he usually was. So private polling at this level would be simply confirming what is already in the public sphere.

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    1. 'No you jock vermin can't have a section 30; we English own Scotland'.

      Crossover occurred immediately after the S30 refusal, just as predicted.

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    2. No you jock vermin can't have a section 30; we English own Scotland'.

      Looks like you're starting to get the gist of things Skier. They call that progress!

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    3. Yes; I predicted it would cause a huge swing to yes and it did.

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  4. The YouGov poll excludes 16/17 year olds. The true figure is probably closer to 58%

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  5. Here's the YouGov data, James. A Scots sub-sample (page 1):

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/d30xfonwnh/YouGov%20-%20UK%20break%20up%20attitudes%20%28Britain%20England%29.pdf

    48 YES (Please)
    37 NO (Upset)

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    Replies
    1. No, there's no way that's what the Cabinet briefing was about - it wouldn't have been based on a subsample.

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    2. Must be their own private (full) poll then.

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    3. Yes - there does seem to have been a secret UKGov fill poll (according to The National):

      https://www.thenational.scot/news/18703315.scottish-independence-secret-uk-polling-puts-yes-support-56/

      If true then nice at least to see the sub-sample confirming it.

      Delete
  6. Here's a link to the Guardian article proper (some of the reader comments there are interesting):

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/07/boris-johnson-deal-eu-britain-talks

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  7. From an Irishman's perspective, it seems Johnson is modelling himself on 'wartime PM' David Lloyd George rather than Churchill.

    I'm not sure it's intentional, but it's certainly the way things are going.

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  8. Why are the UK government polling Scotland on indy if Johnson can just keep saying No forever?

    Asking for someone in England.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All political parties do private polling to inform their policy strategy. They know what to push etc.

      They need to know how Scots are leaning. Refusing a Section 30 continually is a strategy which will benefit Scotgov, and they know that. There may come a point they have to stop refusing if there is solid, sustained support, and I suppose it depends on what happens in May.

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    2. For sure.

      I was being somewhat tongue in cheek, but aye, the UK can't berate Lukashenko for not giving the Belorussians a S30 when he's refusing the Scots one...

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  9. What I find really amusing is that Johnson's Tory ministers had to be briefed about the support for the independence. Don't those people read or follow any news?

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  10. Maybe time for another crowdfunded poll James; what do you think?

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  11. They are gathering data not on the overall support for Indy but that required to target groups within that club. The next phase will be about division (again). They will try to cleave off groups to reduce the headline figure. We will know the target when we see the adverts/Facebook targeting/etc.

    It will be a nasty Cummings generated spat....get ready!

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    Replies
    1. The talk of only another SNP 2011 type full majority justifying an S30 while a new list party is promoted from the south of England is no coincidence.

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  12. It seems like the 56% figure has been confirmed:

    "When approached by The National, the Cabinet Office denied any knowledge of the poll.

    However, Rahman, who is currently the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm, assured The National his statement was correct, although he could not reveal his source."

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/18703315.scottish-independence-secret-uk-polling-puts-yes-support-56/

    ReplyDelete
  13. I apologise if this is inappropriate and a bit off topic but we are about to face an avalanche of msm lies and misinformation as they are clearly rattled and in my area I Want to prepare and distribute a leaflet outlining the lies Davidson tells and showing her draped in ermine. The Tories clearly see that image as an Achiles heel in the upcoming election and in my area we have a number of tory councillors which means there is a not insignificant number of tory voters. The Councillors will be out canvassing for the Tory candidate for the forthcoming Scottish Elections and I want them to have to explain davidson's lies and hypocrisy on peoples doorstep. I have no Photoshop abilities whatsoever. Is there anyone here who can help by providing me with such an image? If this post is inappropriate I apologise to James and will understand if it is taken down.

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  14. What with the illegal occupation of the Chagos Islands and now this, British England is becoming a rogue state.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54073836

    Northern Ireland Secretary admits new bill will 'break international law'

    Both the Good Friday and the Brexit withdrawal agreements are international law. You can't just break these as it suits because you want to appeal to racist English nationalism.

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    1. No you can't. He and his advisers know this. It will never pass as law. Either it will get blocked it parliament or at the Supreme court (on the basis that you can't pass a law that breaks another law). Either way will serve the purpose of having a way of blaming someone else. If you are going to have to backtrack on your promises that you made to your Brexiter base to get elected you need to be able to give them someone else to blame - this is the vehicle to do it.

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    2. Ah yes, classic brexiter. Never blame their government; always someone else's fault.

      But at the same time, neither the UK parliament nor the supreme court are forcing withdrawal from the Chagos Islands. This is a clear breach of international law.

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    3. No the court ruling was only advisory and the UN assembly resolution was non binding. So UK is going against the wishes of the assembly but breaking no law.

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    4. BBC and other sources all say the UK is breaking international law, and that it's just the initial deadline for withdrawal that was not binding, not the ruling itself. The brutal occupation is illegal.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50511847

      In May, the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly in favour of the Chagos Islands being returned - with 116 states backing the move and only six against.

      The UN said that the decolonisation of Mauritius "was not conducted in a manner consistent with the right to self-determination" and that therefore the "continued administration... constitutes a wrongful act".

      The UN resolution came only three months after the UN's high court advised the UK should leave the islands "as rapidly as possible"...

      ...The deadline [for withdrawal] is not binding, so no sanctions or immediate punishment will follow - but that could change.

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    5. Anyway, it's a make or break issue for me. I could never vote for the UK as long as it continues to occupy countries / bits of other countries against their will.

      If for example I had previously supported the union, I would now support independence simply due to the refusal of a Section 30 by London. That alone is grounds for independence as a union is only a union if completely voluntary. If the EU had tried to refuse the UK permission to leave somehow, I'd have immediately supported and exit.

      It's interesting that Scots seem to have agreed with me. I said that if Johnson refused a section 30, Scotland would switch to supporting indy. And that happened as soon as he refused; the crossover polls occurs right after, prior to covid. I think the terrible handling of covid just confirmed to those that had jumped ship over the section 30 that they were right to do so.

      Delete
  15. Maybe it is time to fund another poll, James? I know it's soon but it would be interesting to see how current events are moving the voting intentions.

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    Replies
    1. Well, I certainly hope to run another poll at some point, but it's just a question of choosing the optimum time - have things changed enough since the Business for Scotland poll? I'm not sure.

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    2. I think given today's events there is an argument we have move along the road slightly. Enough for a new poll? Maybe.

      Obviously the polling geek in me is screaming yes yes yes.

      Al

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    3. It would be interesting to see if the polling has indeed moved above 55%. Things are evolving pretty rapidly. Then again I am enough of a polling anorak to think there are never enough polls.

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  16. Dirks now oot for Leopold.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54069793

    Scottish Labour MSPs attempt to trigger leadership contest

    A group of Scottish Labour MSPs who are trying to force out the party's leader have said they believe they can trigger a leadership contest.

    This is surely anti-English right? Must be somehow.

    #strengthinunity

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  17. Try this link to Indy Poster Boy

    https://indyposterboy.scot/

    ReplyDelete
  18. Now this must be anti-English surely? I mean don't the Welsh know that only English people are allowed to complain about the UK government?

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-wales/scotland-and-wales-say-british-governments-bill-threatens-uk-unity-idUKKBN2600QR

    Scotland and Wales say British government's bill threatens UK unity
    By Reuters Staff


    LONDON (Reuters) - Scotland and Wales said the British government’s internal market bill, which a minister admitted breaks international law over Brexit, will undermine the United Kingdom by stealing powers from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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  19. I think England needs to accept that it can't have a independence for an internal UK market without a Section 30 authorizing this from Scotland/Wales/N. Ireland. The current bill is illegal under international law.

    ReplyDelete
  20. UK government desperation is mounting and their antics becoming more absurd by the day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. England to the international community:

      'Scotland doesn't have our permission for independence, so it's against international law'

      England also to the international community:

      'It's fine to break international law in the pursuit of independence/sovereignty'.

      Delete
  21. Given the UK welches on international agreements, I'm not sure of the value of agreeing one regarding iref2 with them. Better to agree one on respecting the outcome with the trustworthy EU/UN for example?

    If we we'd actually voted Yes in 2014, would London have accepted that or welched on the Edinburgh Agreement? It's happily welching on the brexit agreement, so we must assume it would have binned the EA too if it suited.

    I assume Boris is ok that Scotland welches on the treaty of union and breaks it, ending the UK? If international law means nothing?

    UK will never get good trade deals now. Already the EU will be tightening up the deal it will agree, putting layer after layer of protection. Every other country will be doing the same. After all, England cannot be trusted as a trade partner; it welches on deals.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Skier - they "welched" on the Edinburgh Agreement by issuing the infamous VOW.

      Skier - they have already welched on the Treaty of Union 1707 by disregarding some of its articles.

      Westminster has a long history of "welching" - how come - because they are the superior English race and they can just do whatever they want - confirmed recently by the comment that the English parliament is sovereign and can pass any laws it wants even if it breaks International Law. And then we have people like Johnson who has been brought up to believe that laws are for the little people not for them.

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    2. True; the British are known throughout the former empire and beyond as lying cheats.

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    3. Skier - "True" - so why do people believe in the myth that is the gold standard referendum. I would never trust the UK gov to honour anything in any agreement re Scottish independence.

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  22. Rev Stu,what we gonna do

    Chop him up like the Saudis do

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  23. The Britnat state propaganda broadcaster called the BBC has demonstrated once again that saving the union is more important to them than the health and lives of people in Scotland. The BBC will now no longer broadcast the daily pandemic briefings by the FM from Monday next week. The virus is on the rise again and the BBC pull the broadcasts. As I have posted before - many Britnats believe it is more important that we just do the same as England even if it means more people dying in Scotland.

    Why have they stopped the broadcasts - The Tories told them to stop.

    The BBC created the BBC Scotland channel for the people of Scotland ( so they say) but every day there is nothing on it until 7pm except for the coronavirus daily briefings. Now this will be removed. They treat us with contempt but insist we pay a license fee for the pleasure.

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    1. BBC showing a callous disregard for Scots lives, particularly those of the elderly, who have historically trusted it the most.

      Delete
    2. Update - the dunderheid Britnat Labour Lord Foulkes says it was him and Jackie Baillie Labour MSP that did the dirty deed. Baillie says it wisnae me. Foulkes drinking too much again and lying? Who knows - red Tories blue Tories all lying Britnats.

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  24. Not sure why anyone should be surprised at the UK reneging on the EU Withdrawal Agreement as they did the same with the Edinburgh Agreement.

    It is madness to expect the Britnats to act with honour re any agreement about a second referendum. Deceit, lies, cheating, misrepresentation - that is what to expect from the Britnats.

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  25. Why are BlackWivesFatter

    It's great if you like big butts and you cannot lie or you go crazy for all that extra booty. But with covid19 and the increased risk for BAME of dying these Big Mamma's wanna slim down a little. Word!

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  26. New Survation poll:

    https://www.survation.com/scotland-political-polling-september-2020

    On board with the Yes surge:

    Y 53 N 47

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    Replies
    1. That seems to be all the polling firms showing Yes ahead.

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    2. New ISP list party on less than 1%.

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    3. Very positive on both fronts.

      As I said earlier we couldn't push how to get Indy as we hadn't persuaded the country yet. It appears we have now done that.

      How we progress from here is tricky. To much saber rattling scares off the people we need. No action and the moment could be lost.

      Al

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  27. Leopard facing a VoNC.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54117952

    Scottish Labour leader to face no-confidence vote

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  28. Moments after popping the corks, the Japanese are now wondering how long it will be before England welches on the teeny weeny trade deal the two just agreed.

    ReplyDelete