Sunday, June 21, 2020

Whichever way you cut it, there's more support for independence now than there was in 2016

The news that the pro-independence vote has reached an all-time high of 54% with Panelbase was characterised by a certain website as Yes going "back to where it was four years ago" - a rehashing of the bogus claim from a couple of weeks ago that Yes support has not really budged for years.  This is getting a bit silly now.  There were twelve independence polls conducted between the EU referendum result becoming known and the end of 2016.  Eleven of them had a Yes vote lower than last night's poll.  Nine of them had No in the lead.  By contrast, six of the eight polls in 2020 so far have had Yes on 50% or higher, with an average Yes vote of 50.9%.  (And it's a smidgeon higher if the YouGov / Hanbury poll, which used a non-standard question, is excluded.)

Furthermore, if you're going to compare one individual poll with another individual poll, both have to be conducted by the same firm.  If they're not, you're comparing apples with oranges, because each firm has its own 'house effects'.  The 54% recorded in June 2016 was in a Survation poll, not a Panelbase poll.  But as it happens there was a Panelbase poll conducted at around the same time, and it had Yes on 52%.  So, whichever way you cut it, there's more support for independence now than there was back then.

The new poll is also unusual in that it shows a Yes lead that is big enough not to be considered what the Americans call a 'statistical tie'.  In other words, even if the poll's margin of error is taken into account, Yes would still be ahead.  As far as I can see, this is only the third time that has happened in any poll from any firm since the indyref in 2014.  

Furthermore, this is only the second poll since the indyref that has shown Yes on 50% or higher even before Don't Knows are excluded.  (The other one was the Ipsos-Mori poll from 2015 that I mentioned last night.)  I'm not sure how important that is, because there's no good reason why undecideds should be left in.  But it does give us a useful response to unionist commentators who like to portray Don't Knows as "presumed No voters".

22 comments:

  1. Not with Scottish Unionists. The dont knows are clearly not with the Nat sis as they would know.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Did anyone see this polling trajectory chart / where it's from?
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbCdJGgXgAEsCxd?format=jpg&name=small

    I see Bella Caleddonia are "writing on this"

    ReplyDelete
  3. A lot of undecideds were considered by academics researching elections to not vote when the election finally came around. The amount of undecided in this poll is quite small.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you rely on so called academics you will lose again. Remember 2014 and 2016.

      Delete
  4. It wont mean a thing if there is another circa 800,000 postal votes cast. It will be another No vote, a closer vote but still a No vote. Yes I am cynical.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What would be your view on Holyrood 2021 turned into a de facto referendum on independence? ie indy parties go for election as mandate for independence. Would this be harder to fake? After all it would be suspicious if SNP riding so high in the polls suddenly dropped to lose the vote?

      Delete
  5. The Scottish Nat sis have two options to win. 1. They get real on the economy and currency. 2. They spread more anti English hatred.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm wearing Professor Hugh Pennington's disco leggings. And something extra to keep a smile on a face and some lead in my pencil.

      Delete
    2. Doubt you even have a pencil.

      Delete
  6. The more substantial point from the Wings article and the associated survey questions he covers there is that the more the opinion polls run in favour or 'Yes', the less likely Westminster is to agree to a referendum. With Labour now adopting similar staunch unionism to the Tories there is no hope of permission being forthcoming, ever. They only conceded the last referendum because they thought they would win easily. The SNP now needs a plan B, which is nowhere in sight.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Plan A versus plan B is a distraction that is the work of Unionists in order to sow division among Independence supporters.

    There is only one plan necesary and that is to win Independence.

    Do you think Rommel should have revealed to Montgomery his plan B if he was forced to retreat from El Alamein? Would Kasparov tell his opponent at chess that if his exchange sacrifice fails he will play for a draw?

    It is a fatal mistake to reveal your plans to your opponent, it shows weakness and lack of conviction in your main plan. Plan A is still in effect, it's been delayed but it's still in play.

    Those that continuously use this as an attack on the leadership of the Scottish government are doing the Unionists job for them That's what they want you to do, attack Nicola Sturgeon rather than Boris Sturgeon, moan like feck about "no plan B".

    Sadly there are those that fall for it and then there are trolls that want you too to fall for their drivel. The tortoise won the race and not the hare. It's the winning that matters and not the taking part.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So what happens when the SNP keep winning mandates and Westminster keeps saying no? Is Angus B. MacNeil MP a secret unionist for attacking the lack of an alternative? He has tweeted this: "Not even the dogs on the Street believe in Plan A anymore - SNP has decisions to make."

      Delete
    2. Of course Angus MacNeil is not a secret Unionist but he is impatient as are many others. However that changes nothing, you definitely do not reveal to your opponents what your intentions are before actually doing them!

      How about that, actually keeping your top secret plans top secret. Why do you think so many governments around the world spend so much money spying on each other? Planting bugs in embassies, bugging telephones, hacking computers and spending billions on spy satellites? Why would that be eh?

      It's because they want to know their opponents plan B FFS, that's why! So why would you tell them what your plan B is then for free?

      Ludicrous talk, and as I said a distraction created by Unionists, aimed at causing division and unhelpfully being taken up by impatient Independence supporters including Angus B. MacNeil MP.

      Delete
    3. I see. 'Plan A is still in effect' but there is a super secret Plan B which is not to be revealed. Got you.

      Delete
    4. ScottytheScotinScotlandJune 22, 2020 at 12:36 PM

      Rob, you will never convince Thepnr. He is a believer. He has faith. Blind faith. Instead of wanting independence he is a party man - believes in the party and the party is all. He has transported his party faith from British Labour in Scotland to the SNP.

      Of course Thepnr does not say just how long the secret plans will be kept secret because that is for the leader to decide - it could be 6 weeks, 6 months or 6 years or longer. After all Nicola Sturgeon is still a young woman - the secret plan could be kept secret in her handbag for another 25 years.

      I do agree that the talk about plan A and plan B is not helpful - we just need a plan to achieve independence. Something that has not existed since 2014.

      Delete
  8. Stop listening or reading Wings over his own giant ego, he's not on the side of Independence and hasn't been for some time, he's on his own self promoting side spending his time being banned from Twitter for hate speech or being taken to court because he can't keep his insulting mouth closed, he's Katy Hopkins in mandrag, it's all about him

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Katy Hopkins tells some truth in this PC world.She summed up BLM pretty well.

      Delete
    2. Katy Hopkins is wearing my pants. I'm wearing her bra.

      Delete
  9. Just seen a fascinating graph BTL on the latest WGD blog collating poll support for indy over the period end-April 2011 to present:

    https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2020/06/21/were-on-our-way/#comment-109626

    It shows that support for independence isn't by any means an unalloyed statistically-significant incremental increase (although that may still be the as-yet-unproven underlier) but rather that it has ebbed and flowed in waves, with a peak rising up during the IR1 campaign followed by something of a backslide during the "SNP Slough of Despair" of 2017. A trough, but even then, amid all the heavy-duty BritNat "no to IR2" media propaganda, still a visible gain over the preceding pre-IR1 trough of ~2012.

    And now we're seeing another very clear surge. Where and when a crest will occur we can't say, though I would venture it will still be another crest, since experience tells us that nothing in politics is ever truly one way.

    So being ready and willing to anticipate that vital opportunity and sieze it forcefully should be our strategy. We might fear "going for broke" and losing, but "standing still" and missing the main chance we'll get in years is an equal and very real danger.

    We cannot afford to let this upcoming opportunity slip through frozen fingers.

    ReplyDelete
  10. While James makes a fair point that trying to compare individual polls from different pollsters is "comparing apples and oranges", looking over a whole gamut of polls like this does still enable us to discern valid patterns.

    And what appears to strongly motivate people is their belief in a realistic prospect of independence, one that they must address and can't easily ignore. An issue they have to engage with, like it or not (and the more they discover for themselves, the more they like).

    This is something the BritNats have understood for some time, since their only remaing strategy now is to attempt to foster popular disengagement. And it's clearly totally bust. Their miserable dog-in-manger whining is convincing no-one, not even their own woeful rump of hopeless losers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We are UK Unionists not Brit Nat sis. You are the English hating Scottish Nat sis. And we have lost nothing you lost the 2014 referendum. Your bitterness is apparent. The more hatred I hear from you Nat sis the more I like my neighbours dug.

      Delete