Sunday, June 21, 2020

The earth shakes as support for independence soars to 54% - the highest EVER in a Panelbase poll

So you've probably seen the headline in the Sunday National about a poll that appears to show this...

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Panelbase)

Yes 54% (+2)
No 46% (-2)

I don't have any further information yet, but having done my usual Kremlinology on Twitter, it does look like a credible poll rather than a subsample - which makes sense, because we know there was a Panelbase independence poll in the field over recent days.  I don't know whether it was commissioned by Wings, or whether the Sunday National themselves commissioned a question as part of the same composite survey.  Either way, if it's confirmed as a full-scale poll this is the highest ever Yes vote in a Panelbase poll - the previous highest was 52%, which has been recorded on a few different occasions, most recently in the poll for Scot Goes Pop earlier in the month.

I'm also struggling to remember a higher Yes figure than 54% in any poll from any other firm.  The highest figure in the indyref campaign was 54% in an ICM poll published on the Saturday before polling day (although the firm pretty much disowned it straight away as being a likely rogue poll).  The highest since the indyref was 54% with Survation.  So if it's ever been 55% or higher, it must have been many, many years ago.

When the Scot Goes Pop poll showed a 2% increase to 52%, I did worry that it might be a temporary effect caused by anger over Dominic Cummings' jaunt to Barnard Castle, and that it would quickly recede.  But it now appears to have been more like a springboard than a high watermark.  The supplementary questions from that poll showed the handling of the pandemic had caused a remarkable shift in underlying attitudes towards constitutional change, and that probably explains the further boost.  Let's hope the transformation stands the test of time.

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UPDATE: I've been going through the records just to make sure what I said above is accurate.  There was an Ipsos-Mori poll conducted in August 2015 for STV which showed Yes on 53%, No on 44%, and Don't Knows on 3%.  I've looked and looked and none of the reporting seems to mention what the figures were with Don't Knows excluded, so perhaps Ipsos-Mori never made that calculation.  But it must have been either Yes 54%, No 46%, or Yes 55%, No 45%.  As far as historical polling is concerned, it looks like Yes might have slightly exceeded 54% with Don't Knows excluded in research conducted in 2006.  People forget that it wasn't unusual for polls to show a pro-independence majority in the early years of devolution, long before the surge during the indyref campaign.  But of course in those days any choice on independence seemed an extremely long way off, so it's debatable whether people who said they were in favour had thought about the issue in any great depth.  That caveat doesn't apply now.

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UPDATE II: It's just been confirmed that the new poll is indeed a full-scale Panelbase poll, and the client is Business for Scotland.  I think it's worth making the point that there have now been seven polls in this calendar year that have asked the standard independence question, ie. 'Should Scotland be an independent country?'.  Three were commissioned by alternative media sites (Scot Goes Pop and Wings Over Scotland), two were commissioned by pro-independence organisations (Business for Scotland and Progress Scotland), one appeared to be self-funded by the pollster itself (YouGov) and only one was commissioned by a mainstream media outlet (the Sunday Times).  Unionist journalists love nothing better than a good sneer about the pro-indy alternative media, but it's getting to the point where in one specific respect we're actually doing a job that the mainstream media used to do and is now failing to do.

41 comments:

  1. Any 'but we need to wait for higher polls' argument is starting to look weaker all the time.

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  2. Independence for ScotlandJune 21, 2020 at 1:02 AM

    Less than 52% was good enough to take the UK out of the EU.



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  3. I was in despair in March over Sturgeon's commitment to lockstep with the herd immunity plan. Her decision to stop contact tracing on the same day England did for no other reason than to do the same as England undoubtedly cost thousands of lives. (Scotland was a week or two behind England in its epidemic at the time, contact tracing was going OK and there was still unused capacity in the system - they'd just squashed Nike for goodness sake.) I could see both our chance of avoiding tens of thousands of deaths, and our chance of demonstrating that being shackled to England was killing us disappearing.

    However she seemed finally to realise what she'd done in early May. This was still appallingly belated as we should have been advertising for and training up contact tracers from late March, but it seems to have marked a genuine change. The metrics suggest we have the virus under control and England hasn't. We could be heading for a situation where we have little or no community transmission in Scotland itself, but we're being repeatedly challenged and threatened by new introductions from England. We may see England forced to re-enter lockdown while Scotland is spared that.

    I would hope support for independence would continue to head towards 60% in that eventuality. This could be happening just as we're staring down the barrel of a no-deal Brexit while still fighting the virus. Do we have politicians capable of capitalising on this? On previous form I'd have said no, but it could be a once-in-a-century chance.

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  4. The longer independence is shown to be the majority opinion the longer it will appear the settled will. And more neutrals may start to think, why not? And the more that Unionism is seen to be represented by a bitter rump of statue protectors and nationalism-obsessed insult-throwers, the more people will think we're better off going our own way. The question becomes whether and when the British media will start to fairly reflect the majority will of Scotland.

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    1. Independence for ScotlandJune 21, 2020 at 12:03 PM

      Lurkernomore - the clue is in your own sentence " ....and when the British media will fairly......" British and fairly will never go together. The media in Scotland is controlled by another country and is operated by people who owe their livelihoods to being loyal to the "British " organisation and therefore another country.

      It is not going to happen. I have heard over the last decade independence supporters stating that the Daily Record is on the brink of supporting independence. Wishful thinking.

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    2. It was a rhetorical question.

      It's clear that BBC Scotland News is British News in Scotland.

      I used to think if difficult to imagine Scottish independence without the likes of the Record on board (a bit like devolution) but papers' influence is less these days and if anything are led by public opinion rather than the other way around. If the Record ever supports independence it will be because the majority is already clearly pro-indy.

      In other words it won't be the Record wot done it, it will be whether the Record are done for.

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  5. I don't know 'Rolfe 1:13am' above but the comment is interesting. A cautious and considered supporter of independence says, "... could be a once in a century chance". The intelligent and realistic cautious are on the move !

    The 2021 election campaign and its outcome are crucial.If we can gain an indy majority having:
    1. Sought S30 and, inevitably, been refused our right to self determination and;
    2. Stated clearly that our intention is to begin taking our independence with or without that 'piece of paper ';
    then the fight will be on. We are never going to be 'given' or 'granted' our independence. We are going to have to take it via a hard (political) fight. The tasks of the grassroots movement over the next eleven months should be:
    1. To work hard for an indy electoral majority;
    2. Prepare our people for an ongoing struggle when Johnson, or which ever tory toad replaces him, refuses to accept our democratic sovereignty over our own future.

    The uk is determinedly destroying itself with it's incompetent pandemic response and it's disastrous brexit is staring us in the face. It's time to cut loose from the death throes of the racist, jingo 'empire'.

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    1. To be clear, I didn't mean our only chance in a century, but a situation where England is in chaos and fighting both Brexit and a resurgence of coronavirus, while Scotland has the virus under control but is threatened by reinfection from England, isn't likely to happen twice. It could be a completely unique chance for an emergency move.

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    2. And with all this, there is one thing we can all be doing now, and that's talking to friends/families/colleagues who we know are agnostic or minded to support the UK and gently persuading them to independence.

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  6. A wee shoot oot tae aw the unionists who visit this site. We couldnae huv done it wi'oot ye.

    A special pat oan the back fir GWC.

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    1. Don't forget a big "thank you" to all the so called 'loyalists' valiantly protecting statues in George Square. Your waving of the Union Flag whilst hurling abuse, and objects, at ordinary Scots and the police must be adding votes to the cause of Scottish Independence every time you appear in the news.

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    2. Which is why those are rarely shown on the news!

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    3. There's also Cummings's 'sage' advice to Boris on UK constitutional matters; the man really knows how to shift the polls.

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    4. A special pat on the back for Stu Campbell too whose site, his anti-Nicola Sturgeon / independence articles and multitude of nasty, ignorant pro-Union posters bickering amongst themselves is proving to help raise support for Nicola Sturgeon and Independence.

      54% now? Campbell must be sitting in Bath, England greeting into his glass of milk.

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    5. I'd have thought he'd be tweeting about it.

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  7. Once people have seen the light they can't unsee it

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  8. The numbers are fake but that won't spot the Nat sis from getting bevies up and attacking English people in the streets again. I was interviewed for that poll and said Yes. But just for a laugh to disappoint you. British is Best.

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    1. The bears are out early...

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    2. Talking of things British, I see British nationalists including at least one pro-Union SNP hater signing petition to get Ash Sarkar off Twitter due to allegedly celebrating the destruction of the White Demographic. She has had death threats, people with Union Jack symbols taunting her with hangman's noose.

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    3. I did the poll too and said No, so the result is correct.

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    4. Ash Sarkar is just another racist who thinks that because the leftards changed their own rules that actual laws don't apply to them.

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    5. Independence for ScotlandJune 21, 2020 at 1:24 PM

      Scottish Skier - nice one ������

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    6. Those who think Ash Sarkar is "just another racist" maybe missed the comment earlier pointing out she is receiving death threats from Union Jack brandishing British nationalists. But you think *Sarkar* is the problem.

      If so, you must think it's OK for racists to receive death threats?

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  9. Don't worry folks Wings over Campbell says Independence will never happen because he hates Nicola Sturgeon
    Despite Campbells best efforts on the subject of hatred Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP numbers have never been so high and their popularity so great
    Once again Campbell reinterprets the poll results to mean that Scotland doesn't actually want Independence until he says it does

    The conceit of this little self important gnome is his undoing every time and it's about to be so again

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    1. Campbell is playing his numpty followers big time. His hatred of Nicola Sturgeon is a just a cover for no longer wanting Scotland to become Independent at all. Ask yourself what would make someone make such a U-turn? He praises Alex Salmond because he knows that he'll be going nowhere soon. He encourages his cult to advocate Joanna Cherry as leader to get rid of the ''most dangerous woman (for Unionists) in Britain. If Cherry was in Sturgeon's place he'd find something to target her with too. If he was a genuine independence supporter he'd be living in Scotland and supporting Nicola Sturgeon to the hilt until such time as we got our independence and then taking anyone at Holyrood on (not just the SNP) who advocated the elements of the GRA that some are not happy with. Let's face it, it wouldn't be the first time that legislation was amended or overturned altogether in Scotland and he knows it.

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    2. The Wings website and the Blue Book were a fantastic resource in #IndyRef1. I was on the site at least daily, but haven't gone near it since before Christmas when it went weird and divisive. Bath's near Cheltenham isn't it?

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    3. You got it Twerkie.

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  10. On your point at the end on while MSM aren't commissioning polls you are answering your own question. Why pay to commission a poll when someone else can pay for it and then you as a paper can just report on the results and have none of the expenditure of commissioning the poll.

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    1. Nope, not at all - I see no reason at all to think the mainstream media would be commissioning these polls of others weren't. If it was left to them I wouldn't be at all surprised if we just had the one poll this year from the Sunday Times. The independence debate simply doesn't interest them.

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  11. Troll alert.

    Savage Wings time.

    Note the comments above make no mention of this poll result.

    Not even a pro troll.

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  12. I did not do the poll although we have the usual suspect using the GWC logo. Any poll is years away and the economy,currency,fisheries,agriculture and defense are issues the Nat sis will have to get a grip with. Saying to the people it will all be OK for pensions etc etc just does not work.

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    1. Trade deals / the economy is a reserved matter.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52991913

      Coronavirus: UK economy could be among worst hit of leading nations, says OECD

      Scots fisheries are supposed to be devolved, yet England is selling them out for a better deal for itself. I'm not sure that's the best thing to say to Scots if you want to save the union.

      And 'saying it will be ok for pensions' clearly does work, hence the 54% Yes from the most pro-union pollster.

      You need to get rid of Johnson and Cummings quickly.

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    2. Sylvia ButtonblastJune 21, 2020 at 5:17 PM

      Is GWC wearing Ruth Davidson's old boob tube?

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    3. Poor Skier and his boob tube. Always posting his links as if they matter to anyone but himself.

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    4. You paid for the link / article through your license. Who's the fool?

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    5. The BBC is blatantly anti brexit and Trump.

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    6. BBC is 100% solid British. Like a member of your family. Your 'Auntie' I thought?

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    7. I reserved 10 tickets for the Trump rally as a joke. I had no intention of turning up. Loadsae us did it.

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  13. Links to BfS and the poll data - single question inserted into someone else's poll
    https://www.businessforscotland.com/record-poll-puts-independence-support-at-54-more-detailed-analysis/
    https://www.businessforscotland.com/political-data-tables-for-54-yes-panelbase-poll-21-6-2020/

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  14. The Unionist responses to these pro-indy polls are becoming standard now.

    The Twitter flute and whistle brigade will just refuse to believe it and post their tears-of-laughter smileys. It's awesome to see them retreat into their delusions.

    The BBC once said they don't cover single polls but only ever highlight trends in polls. We all expect this particular trend to be the exception to that rule and that does seem to be the case so far. The BBC are still reporting fake covid death figures every day, so they seem entirely comfortable misleading people in support of the state.

    Hardcore Anglo-British nationalists may try to ignore the polls for a short while, but ultimately, they'll try to argue that a vote for independence should be worth less than a vote for the union. It's an easy sell for them, because in their minds Brits are superior to Scots, so why shouldn't a vote for Britain be worth more? Expect Murray et al to start trampling over democracy with their supermajority jackboots.

    Then again, Johnson has emboldened Anglo-British nationalists and there seems to be a lot of harking back to Days of Empire right now. So they might even make their camp and opt for "you've had enough democracy, Jockland" and argue that the English *should* stop Scots from voting for certain things.

    The joys of being in the UK.

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