Monday, February 3, 2020

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll on independence: Yes vote surges to 52% - the highest figure for three-and-a-half years. And pro-indy parties are on course to take 57% of the seats at Holyrood 2021.

I can now reveal the first results of the Panelbase poll commissioned by this blog, with the very generous help of readers via the crowdfunder. First up are the headline independence numbers, which show a clear Yes majority.

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Panelbase poll for Scot Goes Pop, 28th-31st January 2020):

Yes 52% (+5)
No 48% (-5)

(Note: Before the exclusion of Don't Knows, the figures are Yes 49%, No 46%, Don't Know 6%)

That’s the best result for Yes in any poll conducted by a member firm of the British Polling Council since the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum in the summer of 2016. It’s a particularly remarkable result for a poll conducted by Panelbase, which was one of two pollsters (the other was YouGov) that in 2017 and 2018 frequently reported a Yes vote that was a little below the 45% achieved in the 2014 referendum. It’s possible that part of the reason for the turnaround is that Panelbase have now (in common, presumably, with most other firms) replaced weighting by 2017 past vote with weighting by 2019 past vote.

That means the two political weightings now applied by Panelbase are 2014 indyref vote, and 2019 general election vote. The former is still leading to a very sharp downweighting of respondents who voted Yes in the indyref – the 469 Yes voters in the unweighted sample have been scaled down to 405. There is actually quite a significant downweighting of SNP voters from the 2019 election as well, but it’s nowhere near as big an adjustment as in the last Panelbase poll that used 2017 past vote weighting. So I would guess (and it can only be a guess) that part of the swing to Yes in the poll reflects a genuine change in public opinion, and part of it can be explained by the methodological revision, which will have corrected what may have been a small but significant underestimate of the Yes vote in polls published last year.

The fieldwork was conducted entirely in the days leading up to Brexit – so it remains to be seen what impact the reality of leaving the EU will have. It could be that it will push Yes higher, although the counter-argument is that the minimal change during the transitional period could lead to a false sense of security and people saying “ah, that’s not so bad, then”.

This poll differs from YouGov’s numbers last week in suggesting that support for independence is somewhat higher among men than among women. It also suggests a significantly higher Yes support among Labour voters than YouGov reported – and if it’s true that more than one-third of the rump Labour vote in the 2019 election want Scotland to be an independent country, Richard Leonard’s headache has just got even worse. It means that Labour could have even further to fall in Scotland if they follow the ultra-unionist path advocated by certain candidates in the party’s leadership and deputy leadership elections.

Respondents who voted Labour in December 2019:

Yes 35%
No 54%
Don't Know 11%

And now to the Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers, which if anything are even more sensational.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 50% (+7)
Conservatives 26% (n/c)
Labour 14% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Greens 3% (+1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 47% (+9)
Conservatives 25% (-1)
Labour 14% (-4)
Greens 7% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-2)

In recent years it’s been pretty common for Panelbase polls to suggest that the pro-independence parties might fall slightly short of a majority of seats in the 2021 election. But this poll could scarcely be more different, because the figures would almost certainly translate into a single-party overall majority for the SNP. One projection model suggests the SNP would have 67 seats, with all other parties in combination on 62. The SNP and Greens combined would push pro-indy representation up to 74 seats, leaving the unionist parties with just 55. And of course one thing that leaps out straight away is that pro-independence parties have an absolute majority of the popular vote on both ballots, which in theory leaves open the possibility of using the 2021 election to seek an outright mandate for independence itself – an idea that many people in the SNP have touted, but which so far Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t appear attracted to.

Full seats projection: SNP 67 (+4), Conservatives 32 (+1), Labour 17 (-7), Greens 7 (+1), Liberal Democrats 6 (+1)

*  *  *

Now that there have been three post-election polls on independence (from Survation, YouGov and Panelbase respectively), it's possible to produce a rough-and-ready 'poll of polls', and of course it's a very simple calculation.  The three average out as: Yes 51%, No 49%.

There are several more questions to come from the Panelbase poll, and some of the results are pretty incredible.  I had fairly modest expectations about one of the questions in particular, and my jaw dropped to the floor when I saw the outcome this morning.  The remaining results will be released gradually over the coming days - if you'd like to be the first to know about them, you can follow me on Twitter HERE.

123 comments:

  1. Overwhelming support for independence then.

    And it's an official hat trick with Scotland now majority Yes.

    Enjoy it folks; when you walk the streets...in the office...at the pub...the majority are backing indy!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A big shoot oot tae Inglish Boris.

      We couldnae hae done it wioot ye!

      Delete
    2. Still cannot believe we still have support for conservatives in Scotland after the way they have treated Scotland and handled Brexit against our wishes. What sort of people vote for them? We need a voting strategy to get rid of them forever from our country.

      Delete
  2. When would it be sensible for a poll now that we have actually left the EU

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  3. Brilliant. Let's hope this is a trend and we don't end up with the "it's not so bad" false sense of security kicking in over the next few months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My worry also. We're being boiled frogs right now.

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  4. Very interesting. Can you clarify if 16/17 yr olds were polled and other European nationals.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 16 and 17 year olds were certainly included. I can't answer off the top of my head about EU nationals.

      Delete
    2. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Free Why Polls Don't Really Matter Workshop with Projectile Weeping Mr CurticeFebruary 3, 2020 at 10:23 PM

      It would be good to have that info about EU nationals, James. Or if not possible this time, maybe in future polls?

      >“Our report last year asked whether this would make a difference to the potential outcome of a Scottish independence referendum. It concluded if most EU citizens voted No in the 2014 referendum but would now vote Yes in a future referendum, it could have a significant impact: moving a cohort the size of the EU citizens [projected in 2020] from a No to a Yes vote would have been just enough to switch the result of the 2014 referendum, resulting in a 51 percent Yes vote.”

      https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-5293

      Anybody, thanks for organising the poll. Just the shot in the arm we needed, and just the kick in the groin *they* needed.

      Delete
    3. *'Anyway', not 'Anybody'.

      Delete
    4. After looking through the questionnaire for the poll, I've deleted my previous reply, because respondents were asked for place of birth, and two of the options were "elsewhere in Europe" and "outside Europe". That's not the same thing as nationality, of course.

      Delete
  5. I think we now need a post Brexit poll. Crowdfunder James?

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  6. Fantastic! And the brexit chaos hasn't even begun!!

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  7. I remember when in the 1960's support for independence was in single figures. It seems to be getting nearer to conclusion.

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  8. The poll must have been conducted amongst Irish ginger heids and other ancillary Tusk Catholic Polish immigrants. No one asked me or my loyalist friends. The Nat sis are desperate. You are gubbed Nat sis Boris is our leader.

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    Replies
    1. Boris is the man. I love the guy. He's done it!

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    2. Obviously never heard of the Right Club then? Or the Monday Club?

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    3. Boris was a Catholic immigrant.

      You do know that, right?

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    4. I always thought he was a Muslim due to his Turkish ancestry. Mind you he was born in USA so he could be a Catholic immigrant.

      Doesn't really matter to me though. Others?

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    5. Nazi House-Jock spewing his pish, yet again!

      Delete
  9. 3 polls for Yes has never happened before. Not since way back before the SNP came to power, if at all.

    People are saying the same happened after brexit. That's not true. Only 2 polls showed Yes then (survation and panelbase) within a few days of the vote. Yougov got a solid No less than a month later.

    It's now nearly 2 months since the GE.

    This looks like a very different beast. The ground is shifting beneath our feet, and we have Boris and his no Section 30 to thank for it. He's mortally wounded the union.

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  10. Imagine what that 52% would have been by now had the SNP devoted serious attention to addressing the concerns raised last time round

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does "Braghadanach" mean you're from Breadalbane?

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    2. not necessarily, it means a slope-y (not sloppy!) place

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  11. Consistent with panelbase findings in December 2019, which said 51% of scots would back independence if tories elected.

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  12. I wish I could afford to contribute to your crowdfunder james.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scotland has a tryst with destiny.

      On Referendum Day II, your vote will be contribution enough.

      Delete
  13. The effect of Yes moving to natural majority will change everything (and age demographics are an unstoppable, underlying driving force here). The repercussions will be profound.

    Watch Westminster utterly lose the heid for a start.

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    Replies
    1. Boris said in his speech today that his main adversary is an Irishman called Skier who once was Scottish or French. He is the scarlet pimpernel. Skier could bring the British State down unless we can seek him here or anywhere.

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    2. Nazi House-Jock, drivel again!

      Delete
  14. So even despite a crowdfunded Nat poll Yes can only get to 49% including Don't Knows

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    Replies
    1. It must be getting pretty desperate for the Union if we've got HYUFD posting here now.

      Delete
    2. HYUFD: I'm sure you already know this perfectly well, but the fact that this was a "crowdfunded Nat poll" didn't make the slightest difference to the headline result. In line with good practice, the main independence question was the first (non-technical) question to be asked in the poll, and the wording was Panelbase's usual.

      Delete
    3. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Watch HYUFD and GWC Wallow Together in the Nicholas Fairbairn Commemorative Sty of Scat and SubmissionFebruary 4, 2020 at 12:03 AM

      HYUFD's responses to Yes's steady rise in polls promise to be one of the comic bonuses of 2020. Please keep posting here, mate, e.g. describe how relieved you were to read of No at 48%.

      Delete
    4. You really want to play that game?

      OK let's include "don't know"s and "refused": it's now 15 polls in-a-row since No last got over 50% - over a year a ago.

      Would any other democratic country in the world ignore such a lack of support for it to stay together?

      Delete
    5. I saw Nicholas Fairbairn drunk, lurching along St Vincent Place in Glasgow one night. Maybe he was walking from Central to Queen St.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous Spain says hello, Catalans have been banned from even 1 independence vote despite electing a Catalan nationalist Government

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    7. In case you haven't noticed, this isn't Spain.

      Even if Yes was polling 99%, you would still be saying that there's still one percent that's no.

      Delete
  15. Meanwhile most Scots oppose indyref2 for at least 5 years
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1222871398516916224?s=20

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    Replies
    1. "39% is the same as 'most'" - HYUFD

      Delete
    2. That is a downright lie, HYUFD. If Keaton hadn't replied in rather amusing fashion, I would have deleted your comment as Fake Nooz. As your own link clearly shows, the YouGov poll found a plurality IN FAVOUR of an independence referendum being held WITHIN five years.

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    3. As my link showed most Scots oppose indyref2 this year and more oppose indyref2 next year than back it whether the SNP win a Holyrood majority or not

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    4. This year and next year do not add up to five years. Just a tiny hint about maths.

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    5. The FUD is always economical with the truth. He can't help it he is a Tory from southern England. It's almost mandatory for them to lie.

      Delete
  16. This and earlier poll results pose problems for both the PM and the FM. The former won't take a chance on losing so will never agree to S30, the latter isn't willing to take a chance on losing until 100% certain YES will win, and then seemingly only if S30 agreement is reached. Seems an alternative route to independence is required. Anyone for EU Chapter 49? The only problem is Scotland is a country but not a state. Would the voice of a Scottish Convention formed from MPs,MSPs,MEPs, and other elected officials count if there was a notable majority among members? Craig Murray suggests this as one option.

    Article 49

    Any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union. The European Parliament and national Parliaments shall be notified of this application. The applicant State shall address its application to the Council, which shall act unanimously after consulting the Commission and after receiving the consent of the European Parliament, which shall act by a majority of its component members. The conditions of eligibility agreed upon by the European Council shall be taken into account.

    The conditions of admission and the adjustments to the Treaties on which the Union is founded, which such admission entails, shall be the subject of an agreement between the Member States and the applicant State. This agreement shall be submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The EU is an elitist entity and only beneficial to those opportunist politicians who benefit and contribute nothing to the working classes. The EU will collapse and the history will be told.

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    2. GWC = Nostradamus 不不不不不不不不

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    3. Change out EU for Tory Party and I think you pretty much would have nailed it GWC!

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    4. GWC = Nazi House-Jock

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  17. Sinn Fein veto over the UK's trade deals anyone?

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-politics/sinn-fein-establish-clear-lead-in-opinion-poll-ahead-of-irish-election-idUKKBN1ZX2PG

    Sinn Fein establish clear lead in opinion poll ahead of Irish election

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You gotta laugh. I just wait for the raging of the BritNats.

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    2. Both Varadkar and Martin have refused to work with Sinn Fein in government but as all 3 are hardly pro Brexit it makes zero difference anyway which one of them wins to the UK

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    3. Varardkar and Martin may not be able to stitch it up .Sinn Fein if they top the poll will probably be able to influence policy at the very least .The two policies they will insist on are a rent freeze and an all Ireland Poll .Sinn Fein have to insist on an all Ireland Poll or they will collapse their vote in the North.
      With Spain insisting on discussion on the transfer of sovreignty of Gibraltar or they will veto any UK EU trade deal .Brexit is turning into a disaster for the UK .Ireland United Gibraltar going to Spain and Scotland becoming Independent

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    4. Sinn Fein always do insist on a border poll, so what, Boris and the DUP will tell them to sod off given the DUP won most seats and votes in Northern Ireland last month and 43% of Northern Irish voters voted for Unionist parties at the general election and only 38% for Nationalist parties.

      Gibraltar voted almost 100% to stay in the UK over a decade ago and the First Minister wants to stay a British territory, Spain cannot threaten the UK as the UK has nukes, a bigger army and a bigger navy than Spain does

      Delete
    5. It ain't going to be that simple to tell the Irish government to sod off its in the Good Friday Agreement that UK has to comply with an all Ireland Poll .No chance of a UK USA trade deal passing through Congress if the UK breaks the GFA .
      The UK nuke Spain have you been on the hard stuff .No they just veto any trade deal with the UK and EU meaning no access for the City of London to European financial markets .
      The UK is finding out the hard way it's not the 1880s it's 2020 and Britannia now takes and obeys the rules these days it's doesn't make them anymore .

      Delete
    6. Wrong, it is only in the GFA that a UK Secretary of State should call a border poll and only if a nationalist majority looks likely. 43% of Northern Irish voters voted for Unionist parties last December only 38% for Nationalist parties so there is no such prospect and the Secretary of State will refuse it. A US trade deal is not on the cards anytime soon anyway.

      The city of London is bar far the biggest financial centre in Europe and does much of its business outside the EU anyway.

      The UK may have given up its Empire but that does not mean it will not defend its territory and if Spain threatened Gibraltar that would be a declaration of war to be met with a full scale British military response by Boris as Thatcher gave Argentina when they invaded the Falklands to defeat the invasion

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    7. As an Irish citizen, I can confirm that England won't 'defend' jack shit if the natives show the slightest bit of resolve. Their 'mighty empire' soiled itself and ran from a few potato farmers in Ireland, and recently folded over the North like a deck chair. Ireland is now making trade laws for 1/4 of UK nations lol. So much for ruling the waves!

      It's why London won't give a section 30. England is a weak, cowardly, freeloading subsidy junkie nation that is too scared to stand on its own two feet.

      Defend lol. It's a pathetic chickenshit country.

      Delete
    8. The Withdrawal Agreement simply respects the Good Friday Agreement and ensures an open border with the Republic of Ireland. While also respecting the fact more Northern Irish voters voted for Unionist parties at the last general election than Nationalist and to stay in the UK.

      Scotland also voted in 2014 55% to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation referendum' in Salmond's words and that is why Boris will respect that and block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as he won a landslide victory in the general election to do with a manifesto commitment to no indyref2

      Delete
    9. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanFebruary 4, 2020 at 10:19 AM

      The refugee from Political Betting seems a tad worried.

      Delete
    10. Scotland, once in a lifetime. What happened to once every 5 years for a British Parliament. When Johnston could not get a majority he changed it to 3 times in 3 years till he got the majority he wanted.

      Delete
  18. 52% support for Yes very welcome and if anything that is likely to grow in the coming months. The possibility of winning 57% of the seats at Holyrood for pro-Independence parties is something else again.

    Labour, Tories and Lib Dems combined on a measly 43% shouts out loud that the game is up and the Union is finished. Just have to get official confirmation through a ballot and it's a new dawn. Braw.

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  19. You wait months for a poll with a Yes majority then three come along at once!

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    Replies
    1. Not one has Yes over 50% including don't knows

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    2. 丹 The same can be said of polls with No ahead.

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    3. The 2014 referendum was 46.8% No (inc. DK).

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    4. You really want to play that game?

      OK let's include "don't know"s and "refused": it's now 15 polls in-a-row since No last got over 50% - over a year a ago.

      15 in a row.

      Delete
  20. It's bad enough the Britnat turd GWC is stinking the place out but the bampot Tory from down south is dispensing his words of wisdom. Yes thats you HYUFD commonly known as the FUD. FUD you are like the corona virus - pop up everywhere, give everyone a headache and won't go away.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HYUFD, GWC and Scottish Skier are all the same person, joined sometimes by Adam and some of the Anonymous brigade.
      Entertaining to watch the "disagreements" among them
      Anyone seen the film with James McAvoy as the nutter with multiple personalities?

      Delete
  21. The Hyfud guy has been trolling everywhere tonight he started with Nicola Sturgeon then Wings now here, the whole lot of the British Nazi party is as they say pure ragin

    I don't know why he bothers with Wings, Stuart Campbell hates the FM, well he hates most women smarter than himself

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  22. Even if you don't get much about how politics or economics works there's one thing every Scot should think about and remember
    Herr Boris Johnson called Scots *Vermin* and he meant it

    Have some pride Scotland

    ReplyDelete
  23. Potential game changer with the three, not just two, YES polls.

    Something to make the media think - which side do we want to be on? Good stuff!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Game changer". Anyone remember "sea change"?
      Any other silly phrases vying for the top spot in Twat Phrase of 2020?

      Delete
    2. "Juniper Fruit"?

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    3. Anything by Donovan would do.

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  24. This poll us being treated as a real poll over here!! Just " Panelbase". Cool!! Iowa Caucus results stuck in a defective app!! It's 2020!!

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  25. With Ireland, Gibraltar and Scotland upping the stakes the UK has landed into a war on three fronts. Add into the mix the inevitable internal Btexit store down south and it's all too much even for perfidious Albion to handle. Something has to give. This is going to get messy.

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    Replies
    1. I'm wondering what the union jack gammon brigade will take as the first betrayal of Brexit by the govt which will bring them on to the streets drunk and fighting.
      Will it be when England lose out at the 6 Nations?
      Or when the transition period is extended?
      Or the fisheries sold out?
      Or what...?

      Delete
    2. Wales refused consent for the brexit bill, and many e.g. Welsh Labour are arguing against the S30 refusal at it makes Wales an English colony too.

      So it's really fighting on 3-4 external borders + an English civil war (which is inevitable as e.g. the Tories are rats in a sack and England people don't actually want brexit according to polls).

      You could add a 4th front in terms of Ireland itself over the North. Also a 5th in terms of Spain and Gibraltar.

      Then there's a 6th in terms of the WTO and members like Argentina who are gunning for England.

      It's quite a while before we get to the EU nations themselves and the those trade negotiations. They're not really fighting a war though, but looking on bemused. They'll offer their deal and England will have to accept or its economy will go to hell in an handcart.

      Then there are other countries such as the USA and big pharma which are hoping to jump on a weakened England and plunder it...

      And all not because of brexit per se, but because England won't respect the way people voted in other British nations, and is threatening all its other neighbours / former allies.

      England stands alone in the world because it has turned on all its friends, Scotland, Wales, Gibraltar and Ireland included.

      Delete
    3. Wales voted Leave just like England

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    4. Sure, but Wales is not a chickenshit weakling nation like England. Wales thinks Scotland should be able to have a referendum if it wants.

      Wales has the balls for brexit. England is too scared to go it alone. Hence no Section 30.

      Delete
  26. Good morning Scotland the brave.

    Unlike England, which is a weak, cowardly freeloading country, terrified of having to stand on its own two feet, hence no Section 30.

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    Replies
    1. Scotland voted 55% to stay in the UK in 2014 in a 'once in a generation referendum' in Salmond's words.

      Delete
    2. Doesn't change the fact that England is a chickenshit freeloader of a country. It's what everyone is saying around the world since it shat its pants and refused a Section 30.

      How fucking humiliating is that. A country of 56 million with big wet patch developing around the groin at the prospect of life without a wee neighbour of 5 million.

      'Oh Scotland, please don't leave me Scotland. I can't cope. I'm too fat lazy and scared to stand on my own too feet' [bursts into tears].

      So glad I'm not English right now.

      Delete
  27. Audacious Analyst Alarms (SNP) Apparatchiks With "Advantage Autonomy" Arithmetic

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  28. So, what date is Indy2 set for?

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  29. Westminster will never again grant a section 30 to Holyrood. Never.

    Even if polls suddenly swung back to 30% YES. They got such a fright last time that they will never ever risk that scenario again. Cameron wanted to appear fair and reasonable because he thought he had a solid NO lead. Far too close for comfort.

    Contrary to what senior SNP figures are saying, there will never be another s30. However, I do think that the SG is fully aware of this, and all this playing out right now is pure theatre. After all, perception is everything, right?

    This does give me some crumbs of hope, because surely the SNP do have a long term plan for independence, and one that does not require an s30. At the mo they just have to play this silly game with WM.

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    Replies
    1. Iagree. That is why SG has to be seen to going down the legal route to independence otherwise EU unlikely to accept result.
      Spain will definately not approve an illegal referendum. Infact SG best to distance themselves from the Catalonia question for the time being.

      Delete
    2. Big Eater From PerthFebruary 4, 2020 at 11:15 AM

      I cannot accept, after years of study, that the purported referendum would be illegal. We need a Periclean leader!

      #BreakTheSwingometer

      Delete
    3. 'Illegal' referendums are fine under international law according to the UK, and the final UN ruling on this.

      Have a look at the UK submission to the UN on Kosovo. The UK argued strongly that countries don't need permission for indy from the state the are seceding from. The court accepted this submission and ruled in favour of it. Obviously, if Scotland's case ends up in court, the UK's UN submissions will be put forward as evidence.

      Although yes, the Scottish government should not interfere in Catalan affairs, taking sides in that debate. Although I'm not aware it has ever done so.

      At the same time, if iref2 can be done using the current laws of the land, that's the best way forward until such avenues are exhausted.

      Delete
    4. Thanks for your excellent points and clarifications!!

      Delete
    5. Scott wrote: "'Illegal' referendums are fine under international law according to the UK, and the final UN ruling on this."

      Here, let me help you with that:

      Although the Opinion specifically relates to Kosovo, the extract below is given as a matter of general principle by the UK Government, and thus is pertinent to Scotland's situation.

      (on page 27 of the written statement submitted to the International Court of Justice)

      "Any non-consensual declaration of independence would be unilateral. As is addressed more fully in chapter 5 below, the authority of an entity declaring independence, by reference to the constitution of the predecessor state, cannot be determinative of the legality of that declaration of independence as a matter of international law. Any other analysis would effectively give the predecessor
      State a veto over declarations of independence in a way that would call into question the independence of many States around the world. "

      Res Ipsa Loquitur!

      You can read the full statement in the downloadable pdf, here
      https://www.icj-cij.org/files/case-related/141/15638.pdf

      I suggest posting this extract of the opinion of the UK Government along with the citation to the original source document everywhere you can, until it sticks to the political zeitgeist like dried shite. i.e. unignorably mephitic and impossible to remove.

      Delete
  30. Let's put this " once in a generation " nonsense to bed. Salmond was merely underlining the importance of the vote at the time . It was not a commitment or promise.

    Furthermore , NOBODY has the right to tell OUR parliament if it can or cannot organise a referendum or if it can have a vote on independence or move towards independence in some other way.


    We went into a voluntary union in 1707 therefore parliament can dissolve that union . Only the people will judge their actions by the ballot box.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Sinn Fein topping the polls in full EU trade deal veto Ireland.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2020-we-want-united-ireland-say-four-in-five-voters-bcsbnkjld

    Election 2020: We want united Ireland, say four in five voters

    Four in five Irish people want a united Ireland, according to a poll for The Times.

    Even if SF don't end up in government, and that possibility still remains unlikely, the 'UKIP effect' will mean the parties that do run Ireland will take a hard line with the UK over the North.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So what, voters in Northern Ireland decide whether they want to stay in the UK not voters in the Republic of Ireland and 43% of Northern Irish voters voted for Unionist parties at the general election and only 38% for Nationalist parties

      Delete
    2. Only 43% unionist you say? That's very worrying for the Uk.

      Ties in with this:

      https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/article38488280.ece

      Poll: 51% of Northern Ireland voters back united Ireland, according to Lord Ashcroft survey

      Delete
    3. HYUFD is a moron who can't form any opinion that they haven't got from the Daily Mail or Daily Express.

      Delete
    4. Actually it was only 46% for a united Ireland and joining the Republic of Ireland once Don't Knows were included. The First Minister in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster is also a Unionist unlike Sturgeon

      Delete
  32. Big Eater From PerthFebruary 4, 2020 at 11:22 AM

    I have always thought of James Kelly as one of the prongs of the independence campaign.

    ReplyDelete
  33. One more thing to put to bed is the idea that a member state of the EU can veto Scotland's accession as a new member state to the block

    This is untrue, membership of the EU is by majority vote and it's aready been clearly indicated an Independent Scotland would be enthusiastically welcomed very speedily as Scotland complies with all EU rules and regulations at this moment

    Some opponents of Scotlands membership of the EU will cite *the deficit* but Scotland as an Independent country would have zero deficit because that deficit is an assigned percentage of being in the UK and assigned from UK borrowing as Scotland has no borrowing powers within its legal competence and the EU is fully cognisant of the UKs use of economic strategy in that regard

    In simpler terms every time the UK decides to borrow money for anything they assign a percentage of that debt to Scotland whether it's spent in Scotland or not, the same is true of Wales and Northern Ireland

    So things like building HS2 for example which goes nowhere near any of the devolved nations could add around £10 billion to Scotlands debt or deficit depending on which column the accountants for the UK decide to list that in

    The UK at the moment get to decide what they call infrastructure projects that will benefit the devolved nations even when they don't yet in Scotland the Queensferry crossing for example was built with Scottish taxpayers money as the UK deemed that as not beneficial to England Ireland or Wales so the UK paid nothing towards that

    That's how the UK decide who owes what to whom, so you can see as part of the UK set up Scotland would be in deficit till the end of time, therefore from a UK position of anti Independence they can keep banging on that Scotland's too poor too wee and too stupid to govern itself

    One only has to look north to Norway to see that the UK is in fact a burden and impediment to Scotlands growth, England on its own has nothing to sell except financial services from London and those are mobile so can and do and have gone anywhere they like leaving England a very small unimportant backwater with a shrinking economy, and that's why Brexit was used to con voters because the UK of England must without doubt go down the economic road of Singapore with lower wages for the poorer and inflated wages for the rich causing massive wealth at one end and massive deprivation at the other

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Singapore has a higher GDP per capita than Scotland as well as England

      Delete
    2. You can flood the internet with all the garbage you like HYFUD
      but it won't ever make any of it true, in Singapore if you don't have money you leave or you die, now in Nazi Tory world on paper that all sounds lovely but you tried that in the 1930s in Germany and people didn't like it

      Now where you come from that would be entirely up to you to vote for seeing as you live in England which is already halfway down the road to that society, but this is Scotland and we will eventually make it none of your business as have done almost the entire British empire now in recognition of the society you always were but now Triumphantly and blatantly encourage the weak minded to engage with

      Your country is filled with liars who believe as long as they apologise immediately after they have *made a mistake* all will be forgiven because *the Queen* or some other such nonsense will be waved at the dense public will make it *British* and all fine again with cows in the pasture and the sound of leather on willow and tweety birds calling, all things the vast majority of England never cared about because they never had it, it's a fiction of Pinewood studios sold to a public with no clue because in England you don't want to educate folks into having a clue except to tell them to hate all foreigners and blacks and browns or just anybody who's not them

      Scotland like every other country has found you people out

      Delete
    3. Perhaps, but I have lived and worked in Singapore, where the bosses rule, and Anon at 12.18PM is correct. No workers' rights, no social security, and a huge gap between the haves and the have-nots. GDP is not the only way to measure the strength of a society. Of course, for the Tories and their supporters like the horrendous Tim Martin, it certainly is paradise.

      Delete
    4. As does Ireland & Norway by a country mile...

      Ireland GDP per capita $78,335 (2018)

      Norway GDP per capita $81,550 (2018 est.)

      While in the failed English state, GDP per capita $41,030 (2019 est.)

      - source IMF, imf.org

      So, you think this might be telling us something about the utter incompetence of this moribund union? One seldom encounters such pervasive delusions such as yours HYUFD, outside a clinical setting. Then again, the entire English state arguably qualifies as such.

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    5. While Inner London has the highest GDP per capita in Europe

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    6. Singapore does have social housing

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  34. Big Eater From PerthFebruary 4, 2020 at 12:32 PM

    I note that a certain 'young lady' has suggested that I go on hunger strike.
    But I see no reason why one of the main assets of the independence movement should be reduced by starvation or Survation.

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    Replies
    1. I'm already starving, can I come for my dinner

      Delete
  35. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Come and Drown Your Opinion Poll Sorrows Then Pee Them All Over Archie McPhersonFebruary 4, 2020 at 4:52 PM

    Time for Yessers to infilitrate English Tory online groups en masse and call for "Them ungrateful ginger spongeing sweaty socks to be kicked out of Boris's Brexit Britain!" etc.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Let's have another poll.

    ReplyDelete
  37. 'Sir' John CurtassFebruary 4, 2020 at 5:15 PM

    Here's some stuff about me from The Girniad. I'm ripping them off -- but I just don't care.


    "One of the UK’s leading pollsters has warned that Brexit has put the union at risk after another survey showed a narrow lead for Scottish independence.

    Sir John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said the poll by Panelbase putting the yes vote at 52% confirmed a trend showing a gradual increase in support for leaving the UK, post-Brexit.

    Three polls in the past five days had put the yes vote at 50% or higher. “The pursuit of Brexit is putting support for the union at risk, that’s the very clear lesson,” Curtice said.
    Sturgeon calls for unity and focus in push for Scottish independence
    Read more

    The Panelbase poll, commissioned by the pro-independence blog ScotGoesPop, follows a poll last week by YouGov putting the yes vote at 51%. A Survation poll for the Sunday Times two days ago showed an even 50/50 split between yes and no."

    Those figures in all three polls excluded don’t knows, which in the case of the YouGov poll were as high as 10%. Curtice said that despite this, they confirmed a consistent trend showing that pro-EU voters who previously rejected independence were now switching to yes."

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    Replies
    1. 2014 was 15.4% don't know on a record turnout, so 10% DK is pretty damn low TBH.

      Delete
  38. Master, support for The Evil One is crumbling. This is your historic moment as Man Of Destiny:

    "scunner says:
    4 February, 2020 at 5:32 pm

    Seems our pal HYUFD (I prefer “FUD”) is over on ScotGoesPop, threatening to send the gunboats to deal with the Gibraltar situation and spewing loads of garbage about “Unionist” party percentages while desperately trying to counter the news that the polls are finally showing Yes marginally in the lead.

    Fit a bam.

    I know I previously said I wouldn’t frequent SGP as James Kelly had been going off on one re: idea of a Wings list party, but the latest polls are getting interesting and the rev’s “on a break” :)."

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  39. Anyone know who is behind the application for a new 'Independent Scotland Party' which is being registered at the Electoral Commission?

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  40. The only way to resolve the independence matter is having a civil war. That will get rid of the dead wood and foreigners like Skier who want to run Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The English/Brits shat themselves and ran from the Irish the last time they had a war.

      Delete
    2. Exit deal negotiations weren't a lot different. English folded like a lawn chair over N. Ireland.

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    3. It was the Liberal politicians who ran away not the Army. Bring back the Tans. The Irish handed their country to the EU so it was a wasted war.

      Delete
  41. Wow! this is Amazing! Do you know your hidden name meaning ? Click here to find your hidden name meaning

    ReplyDelete