Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll: By decisive margins, the Scottish public say the election result *does* give the SNP a mandate to hold an independence referendum, and that Brexit *is* a big enough change of circumstances to justify another indyref

I have two more results for you tonight from the Panelbase poll this blog commissioned with your help.  The first question is an extremely simple and obvious one that no-one seems to have asked before.  The UK government insist that the SNP's landslide win in the general election is neither here nor there, and that it's certainly not a mandate to hold a second independence referendum (even though a referendum this year was specifically promised in the SNP's manifesto).  But do the public agree with the UK government?  Let's find out...

In last month's general election, the SNP won 48 of the 59 Scottish seats in the House of Commons.  Do you believe this result gives the SNP a mandate from the Scottish people to hold a second independence referendum?

Yes 48%
No 42%

With Don't Knows excluded, that works out as roughly 53% who say there is a mandate for an indyref, and 47% who say there is not.  In BBC lingo, that's a decisive margin, although the main reason it's a relatively close result is the near-unanimity of opinion among Conservative voters.  No fewer than 95% of respondents who voted Tory in December deny that the SNP have a mandate, which I must say is rather ironic given that they're the ones who voted for a party that claimed the holding of an indyref was on the ballot paper.  It takes a fair bit of cognitive dissonance to go down that road and then tell yourself that the very clear outcome of the election is irrelevant, but that's what seems to have happened.

There's more of a mixture of views among the supporters of other unionist parties, though - 24% of Liberal Democrat voters accept the SNP's mandate, and so do a very healthy 39% of Labour voters.  (But remember that over one-third of Labour-voting respondents support independence anyway.)

The next question I decided to ask was another very obvious one.  I'm sure something similar must have been asked in previous polls, but maybe not in quite these precise terms.

When Scotland voted against independence in the 2014 referendum, it was not known that Britain would leave the EU a few years later.  Do you think Brexit is a big enough change of circumstances to justify holding a second independence referendum?

Yes 52%
No 41%

If Don't Knows are excluded, approximately 56% of those who expressed a view think that Brexit justifies another indyref, and 44% disagree.  I must admit I was quite surprised by the size of that majority, and it suggests to me that a significant minority of anti-independence voters must understand and agree with the argument that the No vote in 2014 was at least partly won on a false prospectus, ie. that it would preserve the EU citizenship of Scottish residents.  What's the fairest thing to do in those circumstances?  The blindingly obvious answer is "hold a re-run".

Incidentally, no single group of respondents is particularly responsible for the bigger majority on the second question - there's just a smidgeon more support in lots of different places.  Even Tory voters were slightly more likely to answer Yes to the second question - although admittedly the difference is merely between 2% on the first question and 4% on the second!

*  *  *

There are more questions from the poll still to be released, and in my opinion the most significant result of all is still to come.  If you'd like to be the first to know when the remaining results are published, you can follow me on Twitter HERE.

67 comments:

  1. I just wish the minority of Scots that are unionists would stop forcing their unionism on the majority who are independence supporting.

    Unionists just don't speak for the silent majority of Scots who are Yes. They need to stop their obsession with the union and just let us get on with running an indy Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes isn't it amazing that Unionists(the Scottish ones) are never confronted with their obsession and obsession that makes them disregard the basic tenets of Democracy !

      Delete
  2. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Wall to Wall Simpering SubsFebruary 4, 2020 at 9:51 PM

    Makes a difference when the supplementary questions are actually interesting and informative. This is why you should make these polls a regular feature IMO.

    Looking forward to seeing the 'most significant result of all'. If it's more electrifying than the 52% that will be quite something.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and here's my pledge to punt some cash to help make it regular

      Delete
    2. I don't know about electrifying, but it's one that could potentially change the narrative somewhat.

      Delete
    3. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Tonight’s Safeword is ‘McCrone Report'February 4, 2020 at 10:45 PM

      The one I'd love to see answered is 'Should Boris Johnson respect the result of an independence referendum, whether or not he agreed to it?'.

      Delete
    4. Do you think that GWC will change his narrative somewhat?

      Delete
    5. The Scottish people are sovereign, according to the British Parliament.

      Delete
  3. I think people do to an extent recognise that Westminster MPs don't have a mandate for Holyrood legislation, or at least certainly should not have. While 2019 certainly backs up 2016, it is the latter where the mandate comes from. If you can pass a bill, then you have a mandate. It's that simple.

    The danger of saying that Scots Westminster MPs = Holyrood mandate, is that you open yourself up for a 2017 scenario where the number of SNP MPs fell sharply, yet indy support remained solid. The unionists jumped on it, saying Holyrood no longer had a mandate.

    Westminster is not a Scottish election, but a British one. I don't like conflating the two as people understand this and vote differently as a result. In 2010/11, they gave labour a landslide then the SNP one, and had decent enough reasoning for this plan of action at the time. Imagine the Labour MPs had been elected after the Holyrood vote, would that have cancelled 2014?

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  4. you have got to admire the unionist doggedness though, it seems incredible to me that these numbers are still as positive for that mindset. What will it take to split off a further 20% of the remaining unionist block? Is there anything that would convince them or are we dealing with pure emotion here? It would be interesting to know of the 40-50% fairly unionist block what the main reasons are for staying staunch. Affection for Britain, hard economic fears, socialist solidarity or whatever.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There'll always be a limit because of the die hards and English pensioners who moved to Scotland soley for free prescriptions of diabetic medicine, they'll always vote no because Queen and war and stuff

      Delete
    2. There are a lot heavily affected by the Stockholm syndrome.. also just a lot of no surrender we hate kafflicks bampots.

      If the large number of EU citizens who voted no had voted the other way it would have been a yes vote.

      Delete
    3. okay to these, but isn't Am Braghadanach suggesting getting some actual data on what people thing so we can make the relevant case to the current unionist contingent?

      Delete
    4. I naively assumed the SNP would have set up a whole department working on this from Sept 2014 addressing real hard facts. There needs to be a ruthless focus on what will make the difference for that needed 20% split off. Probably several factors but Pareto's Law will apply and they should know the answers and be hammering these constantly. Not the case however, in my view there is no real idea how to do this.
      BBC full of how A&D Scotland numbers worst on record tonight: SNP say that's OK as not as bad as England!

      Delete
    5. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Letting Your Neighbour Dominate You Is Perfectly NaturalFebruary 4, 2020 at 10:38 PM

      Basic human inertia is a big aspect of Unionism (and of apathy to climate disaster too), especially as so many of them are 65+. As long as No remained steadily over 50% it was the default, the 'normal' thing to do, like drunk driving or smoking inside public buildings once were.

      Watch that change now. Letting your increasingly racist and fascist neighbour make major decisions for you will come to be seen as freakish and pathetic as those groups you see huddled outside buildings desperately puffing away.

      Delete
    6. There was a mini-stushie in Dumfries a couple of weeks back when the council approved a timid wee motion to allow Dun Pris 's GallGhaidhealaibh on a handful of signs welcoming folk to this SW former Gaidhealtachd (only if the signs need replacing so no extra cost): Border TV found an old couple of Doonhamers and interviewed them spitting that they would move away of that happened and that they spoke 'Bruttish'. Some local Cooncillors opposed it because they were Unionist. I guess that is typical of the mindset you refer to. The hatred in their voices was palpable. I wonder where else on earth one would come across this kind of thing. Of course this is meat and drink to Border TV, a project that is designed to blur the distinction between Scotland and England.

      Delete
  5. Rapeepul are getting fewer and fewer as the one's engaging their brains are becoming less loyal tae ra cause of Naw Surrendur

    ReplyDelete
  6. Poor Nat sis in the wilderness for at least five years. Nothing you can do but you can still travel to Ireland where inbreeding is welcome. Ginger hair large foreheads and protruding eyes just blend in.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I oppose the Scottish Nationalists because they are a hateful anti democratic force who detest the majority of Scots for opposing them. Many not all are anti Protestant bigots.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With independence supporters now in a majority, would you accept an independent Scotland in a 'Union of Crowns' like in the days of King Billy?

      Delete
    2. Only if I become the Head of the Scottish Church.

      Delete
    3. John Paul 2
      You're almost dead right except for the bit that's the truth that is, the Independence movement is made up of every part and religion of Scottish society, we have Protestant Catholic Hindu Muslim and the people of the Jewish faith have now embraced the movement, also you may have heard of Rangers supporters for YES who carry their banners and Saltires high when they march with the rest of us for the Independence of our country while the rest of you complain about wanting to remain a colony of England

      Just remember when you're standing in Ibrox as I do that the person standing next to you is 40% likely to be and Independence supporter and 37% likely to be a SNP member
      But he can't tell you because you're a bigoted sectarianist but when the time comes he will vote YES and it'll be too late for you, unless you lie and say you did it too

      Delete
    4. You can only follow me as I am infallible and God's representative on Earth. You cannot have multiple religions only the true Catholic faith.

      Delete
    5. The majority of Scots support independence and the SNP.

      Unionists are the minority.

      Delete
    6. John Paul 2. A satanist has infiltrated the Catholic faith somehow.

      Delete
  8. It's funny how you can always tell a certain kind of poster for their absolute hatred of the SNP, as if that political party was some malevolent force preying on Scotland, rather than being the political wing of half of the populace.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You sound almost like Gerry Adams. Do you have another wing rather than the political?

      Delete
    2. Eh, I don't think so. When did Gerry Adams ever talk of a political wing? Is that not a phrase used by British media propaganda to describe Sinn Fein?

      Scotland is a country which has national cultural life, economic life, and political life. In that sense the SNP is the leading political arm (if you prefer) of Scottish political life.

      British nationalists completely overplay their hatred of a party and its leader, underestimating the resolve and resilience of half of the population who they represent.

      Delete
    3. It was your words do not weazel out of them. Adams said he was not a member of the IRA just the political Sinn Fein spokesmanfor them. And he looked like a nice boy wearing his cute beret at IRA funerals.

      Delete
    4. I am not weazelling out of anything. I answered you fair and square.

      It was you who pounced on a single term - political wing - and implied I 'sounded like' a man who, to my knowledge, doesn't use that term.

      What did you think I was referring to by using that term?

      Delete
    5. Give an Irish Republican murderous sympathiser a shovel and he will dig his own hole.

      Delete
    6. What on earth are you talking about? The Gerry Adams connection is entirely in your lurid beret-jaunted imagination.

      Delete
    7. 'lurid beret-haunted imagination'

      Delete
    8. I thought it was in your lurid political wing. What was your other wing!

      Delete
    9. Hatred of the SNP means hatred of Scottish people as a whole.

      The most recent polls show a majority of Scots support the SNP.

      Delete
    10. Most Nat sis are not real Scots. Mainly just Irish descendents, frogs/tallies and some other odds and sods. We Unionist are the real indigenous Scots.

      Delete
    11. Where did the Scots originate? It wasn't England or Wales and it wasn't Scotland either.

      Somewhere else in the British Isles perhaps?

      Delete
    12. Just a reminder: the majority of Scottish-born voted Yes in 2014.

      Indigenous unionists only won with the help of 100,000's of immigrant No voters who immigrated from outwith Scotland.

      That said, where you're born or where you're grandparents are from doesn't count for shit unless you're a racist fuckwit. You live here, your vote counts as much as everyone else's.

      Delete
  9. Great polling, great initiative, great data.

    Not like some other blogs just whingeing.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Unionists, can you please stop talking like you are some sort of majority?

    You are a minority forcing your views on the pro-indy Scots majority.

    A reminder of current polling averages:
    51% Yes
    51% SNP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 'I hate the SNP' = 'I hate (most) Scottish people'.

      etc.

      Delete
    2. No one hates most Scottish people and that includes the English. It is the constant moaning and groaning and anti English hatred you spout on daily basis that is hated. Are you trying to outdo the SS!

      Delete
    3. No Section 30 = We hate Scots.

      You have to hate people to try and hold them against their will in this way.

      Delete
  11. All well and good, but will SGP dare to ask who the Scottish people REALLY want as leader?
    There is a groundswell. This, from Wings:

    “Peter I apologise before my comment , Paul Martin has put forward a very eminent suggestion which many people I would think would agree with , indeed your response indicates that you tentatively agree with the suggestion , now the parts for my apology , you then follow that with the disclaimer that you are not putting your name forward , my opinion is why the hell not
    I have read many of your posts which you opined that the YES movement doesn’t need a leader or a figurehead I agree with that opinion , but what WE REALLY REALLY need is a strong collection of well known and respected independence bloggers and vloggers to form a group to liase authoritively with the SNP , and I do mean authoritively , because in my opinion the SNP are governing adequately but are failing in promoting , driving and encouraging the forces of independence , the SNP SG can get on with the job of governance whilst the Indy Scot group collectively can expose the lies , disinformation and outright deliberate bias shown by the broadcasters and MSM
    I am very supportive of another indy political party being formed , we DESPERATELY need to overcome and defeat the threat to independence posed by the yoonionist cabal at Holyrood , even if that means that they only stand candidates for the list seats , plus it would ensure the SNP’s feet are held to the fire and we could maybe get rid of some of the deadwood
    The point I’m trying to make is that we DESPERATELY need someone to fire the starting pistol and gather these individuals and if not you WHO ??? you are famous (or is that infamous ) within indy , you are well kent and respected , you won’t be bullied , you won’t listen to urine or bovine excrement , we need this and we don’t have time to lose”

    We should recognise greatness when it walks among us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pay very little attention to what you read on Wings, especially if Sturat Campbell has anything to do with it, he's as much trouble now as the benefit he was before
      His hatred of all things SNP especially it's leader has caused him to use Farage tactics to promote what he likes to call subversion
      Campbell isn't interested in Independence for Scotland, he's interested in Campbell

      Many in the Independence movement recognise that Wings has put many people off supporting Indepndence because of the attitude of Campbell even though the SNP have openly declared they have nothing to do with Wings, people still worry about the presence of this type of character, he is bad news for our movement and as toxic as Farage, people don't like this in Scotland just as they don't like Farage

      Delete
  12. I see Murray Foote, author of the vow, is now working for the SNP.

    Scotland has crossed the rubicon.

    If, as I suspect, Yes is now entering permanent majority (it may yet hover a little at the apex, but the demographics and politics are eating away each day at the union, so the direction is almost inevitable), then everything is reversed. The whole situation is turned on its head.

    A couple of examples of this are given in my posts above.

    We are used to living in a Scotland where the majority backed the union and indy was a minority sport. The whole media narrative is based on this. It applies even at 49.99% Yes; Scotland is unionist and the nats are 'pushing an unwanted, minority agenda'.

    But once we cross the threshold to 50.01% Yes, everything is suddenly reversed entirely. All the arguments are flipped the other way.

    The effects of this will be profound. Watch and see.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The obvious side-effect of democracy when 50%+1 means everything. You assume your control is absolute then it goes up in smoke.

      Overnight, you change from establishment to insurgent, from laughing at the eccentrics in the echo chamber, to becoming the eccentrics in the echo chamber.

      The moral of the tale is those who are too quick to "other" their fellow countrymen, will sooner or later be "othered" themselves.

      Delete
    2. If Scotland becomes pro-Yes then independent as a result, we can be fairly sure that will be it for a very long time. Probably 'forever' in effect, just like other independent countries.

      We are not talking about elections here. Independence involves far more fundamental long term shifts in social and political identity. Deep down, Scotland is steadily moving towards independence because its people just don't identify as British any more. That identity peaks in those born in 1945 and has been in decline since. The shorter wave ups and downs on that trend are affected by politics, economics etc, but the long term decline of Britishness in Scotland is a result of much broader, multi-decadal changes in the nature of the UK state (notably the loss of empire, which was the reason for union, then the increasing right wing destruction of the pan-British post war social consensus), and the world around it. Young people identify as ~3/4 'Scottish only'; they are the children of devolution & Europe with no memory of the old 'British' Britain of days gone by.

      The SNP will not dominate forever. That's for sure. Especially post indy. As we move forward we will see new pro-indy parties emerge as it moves to a majority position with the full spectrum of politics covered. It's a normal evolution for such things.

      Delete
  13. Springtime For EatersFebruary 5, 2020 at 10:38 AM

    Spring is the season of renewal. Of fresh beginnings. It conjures thoughts of emerging from the cold and the dark into warmth and light. It suggests an end to the old order and the birth of a new society. Spring is a time of relief and a time of promise.

    Time to stop hibernating. Time to move out of Kelly's Fridge - with its echoes of Plato's Cave - and into the light.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I quite like their ice-cream.

      Independence, first and foremost.

      Delete
    2. Big Eater From PerthFebruary 5, 2020 at 12:35 PM

      Here is a necessary corrective:

      "James Kelly can write the following without embarrassment.

      “But the poll shows that 95% of them take the opposite view. It’s hard not to conclude that they’ve been inculcated with a near-Trumpian mindset that will always regard the Tory mandate as stronger and more valid than the SNP mandate, regardless of how many more seats or votes the SNP actually win.”

      Change ‘Tory’ to ‘British’ and, bearing in mind what has been said of faith, and you have a telling comment on British Nationalist faith. Kelly might better have referred to the British mindset that will alwayst regard the thing that is British as superior in every way to the thing that is not British. Another useful term is ‘exceptionalism’ – which can mean either or both that the British are exceptional or/and that everything which is not British may/must be excepted."

      Delete
  14. James in the article you write:
    "Incidentally, no single group of respondents is particularly responsible for the bigger majority on the second question..."

    There are however 3% less undecided responses to the second question than the first. Might it be that a large group of undecideds that also voted Remain see "Brexit is a big enough change of circumstances to justify holding a second independence referendum?"
    In other words, although those undecided that supported Remain may not yet be willing to openly support Yes, they might not actually be so far away from doing that, especially if Brexit starts to bite?
    I'm looking for another Brexit bonus in the numbers, one that may yet be to come, plus a bit of wishful thinking of course.

    ReplyDelete
  15. If you want to guarantee the following:
    1. That Scots of all parties, unionist and nationalist, unite
    2. That they turn against England and so the union
    2. That they will vote in majority for independence in any future iref

    Then you need to do something that is completely outwith the power of Scots politicians, be these in Holyrood or Westminster. Something that the SNP will never be able to do themselves, no matter how much they might dream of it.

    You need England to refuse a Section 30.

    If that happens, the nats win Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
  16. My UK passport expires next year and I had no intention of renewing it as I am getting on a bit however I will spend some of my pension and will renew it. Unlike Skier who bought a Paddy bum boy passport I will have a new Brit one for posterity.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC.

      You talk about scottish skier havin a paddy passport , and you talk about havin a brit nat one. Can ye no see the problem?

      Wur aw scottish , but nain ae us have a scottish wan.

      Whit a sad state of affairs.

      Delete
    2. The Brit passport is Brit Scot and always has been. You must have seen Govan on a map somewhere ya tube.

      Delete
  17. When I was over in France skiing the other week, European folk were like 'Are you from chickenshit waster freeloading England, the country that's too scared to stand on it's own two feet, so is trying to stop Scottish indy?', and I was like 'Naw'.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You must have got a grant from the EU social fund to get you away from your PC.

      Delete
  18. Interesting to see the certain self-proclaimed intellectuals (Grousebeater, the man who wrote that the Lord of The Rings books only became popular AFTER the films came out) not being able to understand simple sentences.

    JK points out that story of middle-aged, formerly closeted homosexual, acting like a cretin leads the entire UK news while the uk government destroying the devolution settlement which was voted for by 76% of Scotland is buried. This causes a tsunami of outrage. And not directed at the real culprits in the media, but at the boy pointing out the emperor's lack of undergarments.

    ReplyDelete
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