Saturday, February 8, 2020

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll: By wide margin, Scottish voters say Holyrood should legislate for a consultative independence referendum WITHOUT a Section 30 order if London remains intransigent

We’re coming to the end of the results of this blog’s crowdfunded Panelbase poll, but in my opinion we’ve saved the most significant result for last. It won’t attract the headlines in the London media that the main independence numbers did on Tuesday, but it’s the one that gets to the heart of the SNP’s internal debate over strategy, and the method by which we’re actually going to make independence happen in the real world. The most obvious way of breaking through the current wall of Westminster intransigence is to legislate for an independence referendum without a Section 30 order, and then wait to see if the UK government challenge the law in court. Nicola Sturgeon very carefully didn’t rule that option out in her Brexit Day speech, but she expressed misgivings about it. Her public doubts related to the possibility that the courts might rule against the Scottish Government, but I strongly suspect that she’s also concerned about scaring the horses and driving away soft Yes and soft No voters by acting in a way that might be perceived as too rash or confrontational. If that is her worry, this poll result should provide a massive dose of reassurance.

There are differing legal opinions on whether the Scottish Parliament currently has the power to hold a consultative referendum on independence without Westminster’s permission. If the UK government continues to refuse to give permission, do you think the Scottish Parliament should legislate to hold a referendum and then allow the courts to decide whether it can take place?

Yes 50%
No 39%

With Don’t Knows excluded, approximately 56% of respondents think a referendum should be called without a Section 30 order, and only 44% disagree. If those numbers sound familiar, it’s because a couple of the other favourable results in this poll have had exactly the same margin. Of course it won’t be precisely the same respondents giving positive and negative replies in each case, but there’s bound to be a considerable amount of overlap, which suggests to me that the vast bulk of those who are resistant to ‘go-it-alone’ legislation are the people who are irreconcilable to independence or to a referendum anyway. There’s practically no evidence in the poll that the current pro-Yes majority would be threatened by bold action – a mere 4% of people who would currently vote Yes, and 9% of people who voted SNP in December, don’t think the Scottish Parliament should act without a Section 30. Once again, the rump Labour vote is the most fascinating part of the sample – a healthy 44% of respondents who voted Labour in the general election think Holyrood should go ahead and legislate, and 47% do not.

When I first saw the headline numbers, it did occur to me that the majority may have come about due to a sizeable number of anti-independence Tory voters saying to themselves “go to court, then, and let’s get it settled”. But that’s not the case at all – only 5% of Tory voters answered Yes to this question. The majority very much seems to be based on people who are sympathetic to either independence, or a referendum, or both.

I also asked one other question in the poll. I was curious to discover whether people thought at the time of the 2014 independence referendum that they’d be able to vote on the subject again in future, and it turns out a significant minority thought they would.

Casting your mind back to the day of the 2014 independence referendum, what was your impression at the time of whether Scotland would be able to hold another independence referendum in the future?

I was under the impression that it would be possible to hold another independence referendum if the Scottish people voted for a party with a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum: 39%

I was under the impression that Scotland wouldn’t be allowed to hold another referendum, regardless of how the Scottish people voted in future elections: 47%

It’s important to stress that the question didn’t ask whether Alex Salmond or anyone else had “promised” there wouldn’t be another referendum – merely whether another referendum had seemed possible. Around 17% of respondents who actually voted Yes in 2014, and 19% of respondents who voted SNP in December, thought that another indyref wouldn’t be “allowed” irrespective of election results, which suggests to me that some of these are people who simply had a realistic (and appropriately cynical) assessment of the UK’s government’s regard for democratic principles.

*  *  *

You can read articles I've written for The National and the Sunday National about this poll HEREHERE, HERE and HERE.

120 comments:

  1. The Scottish people are sovereign, ergo there's no such thing as a consultative referendum.

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    1. This has been passed, without a vote, by the Westminster Parliament last year. In the discussions between Scotland and England, before agreeing to the terms of the Treaty it was agreed that the Scottish people would remain sovereign, and the new p
      Parliament would be sovereign,not the Monarchy.

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  2. Just keeping an eye on the Irish election just in case there is a chance of an All Ireland poll.
    Early exit poll has FF FG and Sinn Fein all on 22% .Sinn Fein always do poorly on transfers according to friends in Ireland

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    1. Nyerere ye CobblersFebruary 9, 2020 at 12:53 AM

      Expect an FG/FF coalition or FF with FG confidence and supply support. Electorate seem to have seen through Sinn Fein's promises of everything for everyone and looked at their record of pretty savage cuts in NI.

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    2. That's a truly bizarre response to an unprecedented breakthrough for Sinn Fein which everyone is acknowledging - including opponents, and the Irish media. Everyone except you it seems.

      On these figures it's debatable whether FF with FG confidence and supply would even have the numbers to be viable.

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    3. The exit poll suggests that Sinn Fein have polled nearly 32% in the 18 to 24 age group more than FF and FG combined .
      From my understanding this election is a seismic change .In days gone by FF and FG combined polled over 80%
      It all goes back to the Irish civil war if your family were pro treaty you voted FG and if they were anti treaty you voted FF .Both FF and FG are parties of the right .It looks for the first time with SF and Greens doing well their is now a left right battle in Irish politics for the first time in the states history
      This is a real breakthrough according to what I'm reading Varardkar won't be Taoisheach .
      Sinn Fein transfers will mostly go to the Greens and People Before Profit.
      Most expect the new Irish Government if they can form one will have to take a stronger line with Brexit .
      Could get interesting if they start pushing for an all Ireland poll on unification

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    4. You can watch RTE's election coverage here:

      https://www.rte.ie/player/onnow/66546216066

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  3. I wonder if SNP HQ's polling tells them similar ?
    A campaigning push for a few months, then a summer conference, then try it ??
    This could be the true trial of whether the Sturgeon leadership is craven or canny.

    Personally I think that we should wait for the incoherent blusterer in Downing Street to cock up a few more things and for Cummings to fully transform into the Dark Lord. But such things have to be timed finely and maybe I'm getting too cautious in my old age.
    Either way our people still seem to be moving in the right direction.
    Every YES group, every party branch - keep pushing.

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  4. Unionist Media BDSM ClubFebruary 8, 2020 at 10:34 PM

    Those are pretty amazing numbers, and yet another reason why you need to keep doing these polls. As with the question about the UK no longer being a full democracy, I never would have guessed yes to that first question would be as high as 56%.

    If the indy movement can understand that polls with questions as revealing as these can *drive the agenda* on independence, then they could stump up the cash to do this regularly. Funny how you managed to do all this on a crowdfunder that raised a mere £5k in hours, when our resident Anonbot decreed that it just wasn't possible.

    --------------


    On a more downbeat note, it's probably time to acknowledge that the coronavirus might well have an impact on all global politics this year, including Scottish independence, Brexit and the US elections.

    Several of the world's most eminent epidemiologists, including Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, claimed this week that the true rate of infection is far higher than is being reported and is now roughly 50k new cases per day, with the total doubling every five days.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCYGISw&feature=youtu.be

    The US House panel on the virus was told roughly the same thing -- that large outbreaks won't be limited to China.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/watch-us-house-panel-holds-hearing-on-the-coronavirus-outbreak.html

    Even if this doesn't mean the virus hitting Scotland badly (though it might, with roughly 20% of cases developing pneumonia) the global economic impact could be vast. The second-most badly affected area in China is Guangdong, which is basically the world's factory. China itself is 17% of the world economy.

    (Apologies for the source): >Coronavirus is the Black Swan that might finally sink the markets
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/05/chinas-coronavirus-not-remotely-control-world-economy-mounting2/

    >the IMF said that almost 40% of the corporate debt in eight leading countries – the US, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Spain – would be impossible to service if there was a downturn *half as serious* as that of a decade ago.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/16/global-economy-faces-19tn-corporate-debt-timebomb-warns-imf

    If any of that comes to pass on top of the economic and logistical disaster of a No-Deal Brexit, then the UK could be looking not just at a severe recession but a depression. And if that’s the case it looks as though 40% of UK firms might collapse, making that depression even worse. That transforms the landscape for Scottish independence (and so much else, of course).

    For one thing, you might be looking at mass civil unrest on top of the expected civil unrest after No Deal, which itself could be on top of civic disobedience due to Johnson denying Scottish democracy. In such circumstances, and especially if the virus does hit hard here, it’s hard to see Boris fucking Johnson prioritising e.g. Glasgow over Milton Keynes when it comes to medical supplies and food.

    There’s also the question of how authoritarian he might have to be – or say he has to be – to deal not just with such unrest but the virus itself. Long before anyone had heard of it there were already plans in place to have the military run local councils after No Deal.

    >British Army could help run councils in No Deal Brexit scenario, according to Operation Yellowhammer

    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/british-army-could-help-run-3292206

    Much of the above about the virus is speculative, but No Deal is still more likely than a trade deal being reached in just a year. And No Deal by itself has many implications for us, e.g. local councils run by the British Army would be unlikely to cooperate in organising a consultative indyref.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. UV got 2 much 2 say 4 urself. Ur a bore.
      PS. Nobody read your verbal vomit

      Delete
    2. Me too and it was an easier read than Amy's two lines!

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    3. Amy Turtle has been turned.

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    4. And she has a stupid name.

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    5. I read every word and found it both interesting and informative.

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    6. Push. The. Cart. Uphill.

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    7. The national movement is at a Crossroads.

      U R A phud.

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    8. U R A Neffin Tit

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    9. Fridge Magnate seems to be drifting in and out of reality. She seems not really to have a grip in the world. Whigs are poopy.

      Delete
    10. U R A all the way

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    11. The Prince Formerly Known As ArchieFebruary 9, 2020 at 5:49 PM

      GWC can't help being a bit poopy.

      Delete
  5. Interesting times.

    With the British government-in-Scotland producing its nauseating propaganda, it almost invites us to go ahead with a consultative referendum

    ReplyDelete
  6. Yeah, nice one.

    Thing is this as I keep posting elsewhere, anywhere, everywhere I'm not banned from. 99% of voters are voters, punters, who wouldn't boycott any referendum that uses their regular polling stations and postal votes for those that have one. They'd vote.

    It's only half of the 40,000 strong activists who'd actually consider doing a boycott, so who cares about Carlaw Jackson and Pamela Nash refusing to vote? That's even if they both did refuse ...

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    1. I wonder if Pamela Splash would refuse Jackpot Carwash.

      Ooh, you've got a big jack.

      Delete
  7. Funny, some have got used to saying that you shouldn't trust polls as they are used to manipulate and drive opinion, rather than reflect it. Well, here we have a poll that could help drive opinion as well as reflecting it. Nice when the boot's on the other foot for once, eh?

    Especially if it gets into a national newspaper and who knows maybe even the Unionist media.

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  8. Polls ARE used to manipulate the population, and the non reporting of polls falls into the same category
    If the opposition doesn't want to hear it, they make sure it doesn't exist

    The polls could say 80% pro Independence it won't matter, it's going to take something else, and that's coming soon

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  9. "There are differing legal opinions on whether... do you think the Scottish Parliament should legislate to hold a referendum and then allow the courts to decide whether it can take place?"

    Yes 50%
    No 39%

    James, I wonder how many like me, would have answered 'No' on the basis that such a move would be meaningless given the so called UK Supreme Court (UKSC) which is where this issue would finally be 'resolved', has

    1. in international law and under UN Charter, no jurisdiction to remove or deem ultra vires the Scottish people's inalienable right to a vote on self determination and,

    2. already definitively ruled in the case of the Legal continuity Scotland Bill(1), that the Scottish Parliament is at all times and in all matters subordinate to the will of the UK Parliament. That is, that sovereignty lies exclusively with the Crown-in-Parliament and that the Scottish Parliament has the same sovereign rights as Lincolnshire County council.That is to say, none at all.

    [1] https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2018-0080-judgment.pdf

    I see seeking relief through the Scottish courts and ultimately and inevitably the UKSC, as a complete waste of time. Scots are a 'recognised People' and it is beyond doubt that the have the natural right to decide how they will be governed and by whom.

    This isn't just my conclusion, it is the determination of the UK Government itself AS A MATTER OF PRINCIPLE in its Opinion(2) submitted to the International Court of Justice in respect of Kosovo's declaration of independence.


    Chapter 2, 1.10
    "Any non-consensual declaration of independence would be unilateral. As is addressed more fully in chapter 5 below, the authority of an entity declaring independence, by reference to the constitution of the predecessor state, cannot be determinative of the legality of that declaration of independence as a matter of international law. Any other analysis would effectively give the predecessor State a veto over declarations of independence in a way that would call into question the independence of many States around the world. "

    [2] https://www.icj-cij.org/files/case-related/141/15638.pdf

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    1. It has been "convention" that the UK Parliament is Sovereign since 1707. The reality is that the Scottish people are Sovereign since 1320 and that the Monarch is Sovereign in England, the 1688 transfer of Sovereignty to the English Parliament being nullified by the dissolution of the English Parliament in 1707. However by giving Royal Assent to the EU Withdrawal Bill the Monarch transferred her English Sovereignty to the UK Parliament. Scottish Sovereignty is still extant and with the people.

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    2. The UK constitution ensures that Westminster is the supreme legislative body.

      Should the SNP abuse devolution and attempt a wildcat, illegal referendum then swift legislation could negate the possibility of a court challenge.

      Or better yet, dissolve Holyrood.

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    3. Yes, in matters constitutional and Scottish the people of Scotland are sovereign, but the proposed issue for litigation is that the Scottish Parliament is sovereign and as noted, the UKSC has already ruled that it is not.

      Having exhausted all other options, the only viable route is to action #indyref2 and if YES prevails, dissolve our union with England. This is quite different for seceding FROM the UK. Scotland is not Catalonia. There can be no continuing state of an extinguished voluntary union of two nations. It is on its face a daft proposition.

      Consider the tautology: When the Union is dissolved, the Union ceases to be.

      Indeed, since only the People can dissolve that union, technically, at the moment the vote count is certified, the Union ceases to be, sovereignty resides with the People, and the Scottish Parliament is granted the authority to carry out the express will of the People in negotiating terms with the English state. The Scottish Parliament never becomes a sovereign body, its authority being derived from the People.

      All of this is in accordance with UN Charter and international law. It absolutely is the case under law that we do not require the permission of the UK Government or the English state to decide how we as a 'recognised People', will be governed and by whom.

      Again, lest it be unclear, we need not waste time litigating issues of Scottish parliamentary sovereignty in Scottish courts all the way to the UKSC, since the latter court has already ruled that our parliament is in all cases SUBORDINATE to the Crown-in-Parliament. That is a dead end.

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    4. Sophistic interpretations of the UK and Scotland's place in it won't help.

      The situation in Scotland is no different to Catalonia except Scotland already democratically rejected independence.

      The SNP won't attempt UDI because they know it won't work.

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    5. What this poll further confirms is that England is a weak, pathetic, freeloading nation, inhabited by feeble cowards too terrified to stand on their own two feet. Hence no Section 30, with Europe mocking England for its weakness (e.g. Tusk, articles / cartoons in newspapers etc).

      By contrast, the peoples of the other UK nations are brave, hardworking folks who pay their own way in life, and believe in democracy.

      The two specific poll questions above show this bravery in Scots (1), and an awareness of the cowardice of the English nation, even back in 2014 (2).

      Delete
    6. Anon

      Of course the situation is different for Catalonia. Simply asserting that it is not will not make that idiocy so. Here, read my article that illustrates this

      https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/02/25/the-fiction-of-the-continuing-state/

      There can be no UDI since by common definition that requires secession and a residual continuing/continuator state. Scotland cannot secede since it is the co-creator of a binary union and the very act of leaving dissolves that union.

      Independence is a by-product of that dissolution. As you might expect, two and only two successor states will emerge from its discarded husk – the Kingdom of Scotland and the Kingdom of England. There can be no continuing state of an extinguished voluntary union of two nations. It is on its face a daft proposition.

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    7. Scotland has said to England ‘I don’t love you anymore’, and pathetic, weak, bubbling England, too scared to find its own way in the world, is attempting to hold the front door shut, screaming threats of ‘I’ll take you to court and ruin you if you leave me, and I know the judges!’ while tears of rejection run down it’s face. All the neighbours are gathered around watching this spectacle.

      It’s pathetic. England is currently a miserable, embarrassment of a nation. Scotland going for independence should not be anything more than brexit is to the EU; a bit of a disappointment, but that’s all. England making a scene like this in front of the neighbours at being jilted is the greatest national humiliation it its history. You could see it in Raab’s face as Tusk mocked England for its tears over Scotland’s rejection.

      Such a brave nation that bullies one 1/10th of it’s size.

      Pathetic. Cowardly. Weak people. So glad I am not one of the proud, brave, minority (one can only conclude) English folks watching their country humiliated in front of the world in this way.

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    8. You should check the agreements made between Scotland and England in 1689 that would lead to the signing of the Treaty of Union. It was decided that the Scottish people are sovereign, not a Scottish Government and not the monarchy. Also the ENGLISH Parliament is sovereign, not the British Parliament.

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  10. So Anon...

    How does the UK Government or the English state prevent Scotland's people holding a referendum and dissolving their union with the English state as provided for under UN Charter and in international law, and as clearly delineated by the UK Government itself in the document I previously cited?

    Come on, details?

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    1. There is no English state. The UN charter you breathlessly alude to is not a free pass for secessionist movements - it's intended to safeguard against nation states being coerced or controlled by bother. Scotland isn't a nation state. It isn't a member of the UN. Its irrelevant.

      As for the response to an illegal referendum? Ignore the result. It worked in Catalonia and Veneto.

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    2. Anon: "it's intended to safeguard against nation states being coerced or controlled by bother."

      The provisions under UN Charter and in international law are there to protect a RECOGNISED PEOPLE, not an existing state. Even a cursory reading would have told you that. And indeed, even without a reading, that we are talking about the right to self determination and becoming INDEPENDENT should have told you that.

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    3. The UN would likely disregard an application for an English state on the grounds of English people being too weak, pathetic and cowardly to stand on their own two feet. Hence no Section 30.

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    4. The purpose of the UN is to protect the interests of its member states. It's no more likely to support Scottish independence as it does Catalonian or Venetian. Supporting Scottish independence is contrary to the interests of the UN because the UN *is* those states with their own secessionist movements.

      The UN isn't going to start demanding the UK ignores the referendum and forces independence on Scotland.

      Thinking it will is a childish fantasy.

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    5. Aye the Chagos islanders are braver than the weak, pathetic, cowardly English, hence the UN ruling their favour and laughing at the chickenshit English.

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    6. How can UN members ever respect a country / people too scared to actually be an independent country? England can only be considered a nation when it stops being coward and has the bravery to stand on its own two feet like the people of the chagos islands.

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    7. By that measure Scotland, having rejected the opportunity of independence, can't be considered a nation.

      What term would you prefer? Region?

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    8. Choosing union freely is fine. Many countries choose this in various forms for mutual benefit, e.g. EU members. A brave country chooses union if it likes.

      But England isn't doing that though. It's a coward of nation too scared to stand on its own two feet. Greetin an bawlin like a big baby, with a large wet patch developing at the groin at the prospect of not freeloading off the back of Scotland any more. Hence no Section 30.

      All my international friends are laughing at pathetic England right now, just like Tusk openly mocked it on live TV. It's not Scotland wanting indy that makes them mock England in this way, but English cowardice in the face of that.

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    9. If England immediately agreed to respect Scottish democracy via voting (with the other home nations) for a UK parliament section 30, and stayed completely out of the subsequent debate, then international respect would return quickly.

      But nobody respects a coward nor a bully. Jeez, England is 10 times the size of Scotland yet terrified of life without the latter. It's just humiliatingly pathetic.

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    10. A good example of a brave people choosing union is the Welsh. They said Scots should be able to freely hold a referendum.

      The Welsh are brave, and willing to stand on their own two feet, unlike England.

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    11. Logic fail. If you choose a union then you don't (yet) want to stand on your own two feet.

      And the "What is to be done?" analysis should start with Nicola Sturgeon's apology for the word "national".

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  11. Folks should read this (and links within) on the international legal situation.

    The UK argued strongly in the Kosovo case that permission is not required for indy, and the UN agreed, ruling as follows.

    https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/02/03/is-whitehall-right-to-be-afraid-of-scotland/

    Consistent with this general approach, international law has not treated the legality of the act of secession under the internal law of the predecessor State as determining the effect of that act on the international plane. In most cases of secession, of course, the predecessor State’s law will not have been complied with: that is true almost as a matter of definition.

    Nor is compliance with the law of the predecessor State a condition for the declaration of independence to be recognised by third States, if other conditions for recognition are fulfilled. The conditions do not include compliance with the internal legal requirements of the predecessor State. Otherwise the international legality of a secession would be predetermined by the very system of internal law called in question by the circumstances in which the secession is occurring.

    5.7 For the same reason, the constitutional authority of the seceding entity to proclaim independence within the predecessor State is not determinative as a matter of international law. In most if not all cases, provincial or regional authorities will lack the constitutional authority to secede. The act of secession is not thereby excluded. Moreover, representative institutions may legitimately act, and seek to reflect the views of their constituents, beyond the scope of already conferred power.


    England is shitting bricks and a coward of a country. If it was inhabited by brave people, we'd have a Section 30.

    Of course it might well yet turn out that the SNP are a bit chicken too (in which case my vote goes to those with baws), however, they are not acting in isolation, but are in discussions with the neighbours about how things might most smoothly progress.

    We don't live in isolation, something England keeps forgetting, hence humiliating itself soiling its pants in public over Scotland not loving it any more. But remember that applies to Scotland too; we need to work with those around us as well.

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    1. The English people had no say in the political agreements reached between the UK host countries. As long as fanatics like you spout your hatred towards our neighbour your Nat si party will never get my vote and tens of thousand others.

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    2. The English Parliament was never suspend.ed in 1707

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    3. We don't need your vote GWC, and nor is it wanted. Yes is in majority.

      Scots will never vote to be in union with such a cowardly, pathetic neighbour as England is right now.

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  12. It's interesting how each new development pushing us closer to independence invites a new influx of Unionist arguments on independence.

    All the pointers are to the break-up of the Union - not least via Northern Ireland being detached (spurred unilaterally by the current Conservative & Unionist party).

    The independence of Scotland is surely just a matter of time, and a matter of 'by what means' and 'in what circumstances', resulting in what post-independence settlement between Scotland and the remainder of the UK.

    This is really what the present skirmishes are about, not whether Scotland should be independent or not. And to be fair, at least people arguing about the constitution on here are taking this seriously unlike the mainstream media which is obsessed with personalities and party politics.

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    1. ... the mainstream media which is obsessed with personalities and party politics, or pretends that there is no news here at all, that independence has been put to bed for a generation.

      Delete
    2. Unionist Media BDSM ClubFebruary 9, 2020 at 1:19 PM

      That's an interesting point -- that even on a site often dominated by a sectionable wretch like GWC, the constitutional discussion is better than you'd read in supposedly quality Scottish and UK broadsheets.

      Maybe GWC actually makes people raise their constitutional game here, somehow, and that's why James never deletes his comments.

      GWC to moderate the Constitutional Covention?

      Delete
    3. Roddy Collarless-ShirtFebruary 9, 2020 at 1:59 PM

      Sir,
      I am somewhat dismayed that you have overlooked a very obvious candidate for Convener of the New Convention. I refer of course to the distinguished impresario, bon viveur, traveller and raconteur Mr Constantine Mudge, who betimes contributes his gold-tipped insights to these columns.
      One yearns for the presence of a steady hand in such a role and for it to be surmounted by the sensitivity of vision and cultural awareness possessed by Mr Mudge. His reputation extends from Edirne to Salzburg and from Pomerania to the hills of Tuscany. And lest any should doubt his popular appeal I would point to the 17,000 votes garnered by his recent candidature in Dunbotherin and Scumflats East. It is indeed regrettable that this site neglected to analyse the result, but for him to have let his name go forward was simply an act of public generosity and quite typical of the man.

      Delete
    4. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- Convened for One Nite Only by the Celebrated Raconteur and Testicle-Vice-Clamp Exhibiteur, Mr Constantine MudgeFebruary 9, 2020 at 2:28 PM

      How old is Mr Mudge, if you don't mind me asking? I'm sure I've seen a statue in Paris of a twelfth-century monk called Constantine Mudge. Handsome fellow, lovely teeth for the time, the overall impression barely affected by the elephantisis?

      Delete
    5. One thanks one's readers for their interest and approbation. One's gratitude abounds.
      One would respond were time sufficient. Hélas, one is occupied in the manufactory of a triptych illuminating the habitations of the humble denizens of Menton.
      One is torn between burnt sienna and rose madders best to depict the glowing warmth of the walls.

      Delete
  13. Sinn Fein surge suggested by polls translating to seats it would appear.

    Looks like they're going to be calling the shots on Brexit, either directly, or indirectly going forward.

    Ireland - and so Sinn Fein - of course has a full EU veto.

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    1. The UK government are now trying to bombard us with propaganda but maybe a bit too late for that. They seem to have lost interest in holding on to Northern Ireland.

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  14. N. Ireland and Scotland are just doing what the migrants are doing.

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/09/migrants-found-back-lorry-trying-escape-uk-brexit-fears-12208283/

    Migrants found in back of lorry trying to escape UK over Brexit fears

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    1. Are you climbing on the lorry with them paddy Skier.

      Delete
  15. If England were to apply now to be a UN member now it wouldn't qualify on on the grounds of the humanitarian abuses and the illegal occupation of a soveriegn state (the Chagos Islands) both of which the UN has made complaints and orders against

    It's only because the UK is a member state that England is hanging on

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    1. If they deny Scots their Human Right to self determination they may find they are in infringement of, and ultimately ejected from, the UN Charter and the ICCPR.

      However, so desperate are they to hang on to Scotland, I fear that the international humiliation they would accrue in becoming a rogue, pariah state, along with bedfellows such as North Korea and Saudi Arabia, is a price they may well feel worth paying.

      Delete
  16. The YES movement when campaigning must distance themselves from Stuart Campbell and Wings over Scotland, there are undecided voters who express fears that the SNP are anything to do with this online hate fest
    The longer this Blog and this character is allowed to continue he infects the YES movement with his hateful bile and it does all of us no good

    Wings over Scotland has nothing whatsoever to do with the SNP or Independence folks, he's just another online troll

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    1. The Nat sis have given up on independence they want the EU to dictate to Scotland. The Nats are self confessed grovellers.

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    2. Christ, the wee Welsh have more baws than the English. It's fucking humiliating for decent English folks that their country has fallen so far it's now terrified of life without wee Scotland; that last remnant of the once great empire which is now all but gone.

      When everyone leaves your party, it's time to think 'Maybe it's me that nobody likes'.

      Delete
  17. can someone explain to me.
    as the Scottish people are sovereign, why are we getting the British supreme court involved in this at all, why has it got anything to do with them. Surely if we need a ruling of any sort it should be an impartial international body and not some beholden body of the british state mechanism.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is called The Supreme Court of the United Kingdom. That should explain unless you are waiting for an explorer to discover you.

      Delete
    2. The supreme court of the chickenshit cowardly state you mean?

      Delete
    3. GWC. You obviously have not been reading ,or not understood the prev posts on the legality and rights of the Scottish people. So stop misinforming people.

      Delete
    4. Which 'impartial international body' do you imagine would adjudicate on the plight of Scottish nationalism?

      Delete
  18. Ireland has a full veto over a UK-EU trade deal. Also a full veto over any deal with a country that wants a deal with the EU which the UK wants to do a deal with...

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1226408266290356225
    Darran Marshall
    @DarranMarshall
    ·
    9h
    Exit Poll : 57% of Irish voters would like to see a #BorderPoll within the next five years.

    40% said they would not like one by 2025.

    🇮🇪🗳#ExitPolls #ExitPoll2020 #ExitPoll #GE2020 #Togh2020

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Irish will not veto a trade deal as they will be the big losers. I hope they do veto and we crash out. We should pull out of the Belfast Agreement and the 1923 free movement agreement with the Irish. They can apply to come to the mainland like everyone else. The UK has allowed the Irish to offload its unemployed into the UK for far too long.

      Delete
    2. This is Sinn Fein you are talking about. They die for reunification.

      I thought the UK was out of the EU. Are we still in?

      Delete
    3. That aside, I think we can all be confident that if Sinn Fein take office, then Johnson will get on his knees and kiss their feet, just like he did Varadkars.

      Delete
    4. The UK are still in the UK and EU.

      Delete
  19. And there's also the wee issue of Spain and Gibraltar. Oh Dear.

    Boris. Over. Barrel. :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fish an Chips Luigi mitt a penny onion und salt und vinegar mitt tomato ketchup.

      Delete
    2. As they say in the edgier parts of Switzerland.

      Delete
  20. I am confidant the NI loyalists are watching the ROI Road show to see who is wanting to commit genocidal behaviour towards them and being prepared for it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have a lovely home and lead a beautiful life.

      Delete
  21. England is trashing the union. It's great to watch.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-51422063

    Welsh MPs feel 'second-class' over English-only Commons vote

    English votes for English laws makes Welsh MPs feel like "second-class" politicians, a former Welsh Secretary has said.

    Stephen Crabb said excluding MPs from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland from certain votes had not "done anything" to strengthen the UK.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks to the English, Welsh indy is now something being openly discussed, with some polls showing support at similar levels to what it was in Scotland post 2011.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-51376821

      Devolve rail to fend off Welsh independence says Labour minister

      Giving the Welsh Government full control over railways would "address some of the concerns" of Wales' "growing independence movement", according to the economy minister.

      Delete
    2. Skier loves links that are irrelevant. I prefer lorn.

      Delete
    3. The Welsh are a brave people, and I have no doubt they could make a go of Wexit and/or Welsh indy. Their bravery is shown in their respect for Scotland's right to a referendum.

      This contrasts chickenshit England that's too scared to stand on its own two feet, hence no Section 30 for Scotland.

      I think we can assume England will be too cowardly to live without the Welsh propping them up as well, so will try to force the Welsh to stay in the UK too through bullying if they asked for their own S30.

      Delete
    4. The Welsh do have some slate left over for the housing market.

      Delete
    5. Or for the one that you have loose.

      Delete
    6. The Welsh were brave at Rorks Drift shooting all those brave Darkies down to help make a future film.

      Delete
  22. Au contrair. It shows the narrative that Westminster is only interested in little england

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That was a reply to GWC and irrelevant links by SSk

      Delete
  23. This is funny as fuck. I pointed this out the moment there was no Section 30. You reap what you sew.

    Johnson's right royally screwing the Scottish unionists. Not only will no Section 30 drive folk from No to Yes, it makes No voters think they can safely vote SNP for other polices or not bother voting at all.

    It's the gift that will keep on giving for the nats.

    And of course the advert blitz (with no Section 30) is the action of a cowardly country shitting itself at the prospect of standing on its own two feet.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/cinema-adverts-billboards-and-social-media-posts-among-uk-s-greatest-hits-campaign-aiming-to-boost-support-for-union-1-5087799

    A Scottish Tory source said that the party faced a battle to convince voters of the risk of giving the SNP another term in office in 2021, with the UK government firmly ruling out a second independence referendum.

    “The risk is that people think it’s OK to vote SNP even if they’re calling for indyref2, because Boris will stop it,”

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Tories have spend the past few years determinedly making themselves the 'vote for us for no indyref!' party, only have Johnson wipe out any obvious reason to vote for them.

      Delete
    2. Aye, the law of unseen consequences lol. No point in voting NO REF if Boris has already done the dirty deed. You coudln't make this nonsense up, you really couldn't. They can;t have it both ways - if they once again campaign to stop another indy ref, they are conceding that they cant really stop it. Talk about boxing yourself into a corner.

      Scottish tories had one card to play. Now Boris has gone and chewed it all up. Ha ha ha ha ha.

      Delete
    3. I also think it's funny that they are spending millions on a propaganda campaign to promote the Union because it kinda contradicts their assertion that there won't be another referendum for a lifetime if at all. I mean if that were the case surely they wouldn't bother? They'd be like, vote SNP if you want, we don't care! But they obviously do care very much which is a bit of a giveaway is it not?

      Delete
  24. Big Eater From PerthFebruary 9, 2020 at 7:39 PM

    Kelly has abdicated control of this discussion. Sometimes firm leadership is needed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A bit of spanking followed a Mackay aka Forbes austerity budget should help.

      Delete
    2. Big Eater From PerthFebruary 9, 2020 at 7:50 PM

      If you don't get people you don't get politics.

      I want some action!

      Delete
    3. If you want action then do not get into Scottish Nat si mundane politics. Vote for Trotsky and wipe them away.

      Delete
    4. That's narcissism.

      Delete
    5. When he's not styling his hair James often takes time out to delete posts that point out that a referendum without a section 30 would be illegal.

      Delete
    6. It is illegal to refuse a section order, and Johnston already know this, he is just blustering before he comes down to earth.

      Delete
  25. This Irish election is going to have a major knock on effect.Its looking likely Sinn Fein will have to have some role in the Government .Can you imagine Johnson dealing with Mary Lou McDonald .A border poll in Ireland and the Scottish Government going for a court approved Referendum .
    The days of Westminster dictating to the people across all of these islands are numbered

    ReplyDelete
  26. Nicola Sturgeon is doing psychological politics and she's playing a blinder, Scotland is becoming outraged and Dominic Cummings must be furious she's using his own tactics against him

    Watch out for March

    ReplyDelete
  27. I understand that Sinn Fein have won the Irish election; the largest share of the popular vote.

    While they may not get the most seats (as they didn't stand enough candidates), if they are excluded from government, a voter backlash would likely follow.

    Fianna Fáil, who may well end up with most seats, are hinting they'll talk to SF.

    So, we may yet see Johnson congratulating Mary Lou MacDonald on entering government.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sinn Fein the medieval Catholic party taking history a walk back to happiness as Helen Shapero would say. Hard border for protection of children in the North needed urgently.

      Delete
  28. Although Brexit was not a driving force for the Irish election results, a byproduct will certainly be the perception that a United Ireland is getting significantly closer, driven by Brexit on the UK side of things.

    The good old Conservative & Unionist party have played their part, doing their best to alienate unionists; and Scots Tories have shamefully sold out on their unionist brethren in NI, all in pursuit of favour in the court of emperor Johnson.

    As Johnson puts the Union on a shoogly peg, this can only embolden Scottish nationalists (as Scots Tories once warned, before they surrendered) and even increase a sense of inevitability of the demise of the Union.

    If NI were to go (first), it would surely shake faith that the Union is enduring, or even worth saving, as it would have been abandoned by the Great British themselves.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The English have always welcomed refugees from Scotland and Ireland when their economies failed and the people wanted a better life.

      Delete
    2. The fact that the Conservative & Unionist party is haplessly driving the destruction of its precious Union will be one of the great ironies in history.

      Untill now people have been consistenly denying it, or deflecting away from it. By childish namecalling, or simply changing the subject. But surely the penny must drop, sooner or later. But it could already be too late.

      Delete
    3. Just watching Irish election results on RTE Varardkar scraped home on 5th count .
      This is huge .Sinn Fein TDs openly stating the Irish government must start to prepare for Irish Unity .Others stating that the days of the British government dictating to the Irish people are over never to return .
      This is going to be fun .I wish the Scottish Government would take a hint and tell Westminster to do one .We are having a referendum whether you like it or not

      Delete
    4. Varadkar would be your lovely boy 67.

      Delete
  29. As you must know, the greatest periods of 'refugee' exodus from Scotland an Ireland came about due to mismanagement by the British government who controlled the 'failed economies' of those countries at the time, putting profit before people.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. THis was, of course, a reply to John Bull.

      Delete
  30. The expectation in 2014 was, even from me and I usually get things right, that if the yes campaign lost, the SNP would be devastated and that it would take many years for them, or another indy party, to get back into a position of legislating for another.

    It is therefore no surprise that many, including some politicians, said at the time if we lose it will be many years before we get another chance.

    The biggest surprise I have personally experienced in politics was the incredible response of the electorate in promptly voting an SNP majority. I never saw that coming and that surprise to me and shock to the unionists changed everything.

    I doubt very much if those 'you better vote Yes now because you won't get another chance' type comments by some would still have been said had they known that even after a NO majority indy was not going away, quite the contrary.

    ReplyDelete
  31. The excessive breeding habits of the Scots and Irish needed a solution and the English were there to give a helping hand. We did our best for you and you seem not to appreciate. You an only employ a limited amount of people. The Scots and Irish just would not give their women a break for a year. It was constant shagging, poor women.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Sinn Fein Catholic IRA virus spreading across the Catholic Socialist Leninist Maoist Marxist Utopia. Protestants advised to leave immediately.

    ReplyDelete
  33. It's become more and more obvious that the opposition to Scotland's self determination now only comes from xenophobic bigots racists and sectarianists, and those who are of that persuation enjoy being so called, but those who engage their brain dislike the feeling of being contaminated by such as those and the outcome is and always has been historically clear when that happens

    The bigots always eventually lose, and that time has come in Scotland and Northern Ireland where decent people get rid of the English infection tactic of divide and rule, over 50 countries found them out and kicked them out, it's our turn now

    ReplyDelete
  34. So, with the final tallies in, Sinn Fein are the clear winners of the Irish Election.

    Johnson now has to fight on yet another front. In Scotland, in Gibraltar, in N. Ireland, in Wales (non-consent for brexit power grab), and even in Ireland itself.

    And all because England is a cowardly chickenshit country too scared to stand on its own too feet, hence trying to bully everyone else into its brext plan.

    ReplyDelete