Wednesday, December 4, 2019

VIDEO: Are the Liberal Democrats in trouble in Scotland?

For the second in my series of short pre-election videos, I've taken a look at one of the oddest patterns from the YouGov projection model.  The Lib Dem vote appears to be well up on two years ago across Scotland, but in the five seats they actually have a chance of winning, they're seemingly either flatlining or going backwards.


21 comments:

  1. Thanks - another interesting video and another fascinating glimpse of SGP global HQ. This time, a door.

    I was wondering if the opinion poll figures you presented took account of intention to vote. I think that some analysts have attributed the (relatively) disappointing SNP results in GE2017 as being due to poor turnout on the part of the SNP supporters (complacency following the triumph of 2015), rather than people actually chaning their minds and switching to LD, Tory etc. Is it possible that the potentially stronger SNP performance in the seats you mentioned in the video, is due to strengthened resolve on the part of SNP supporters to make their votes count?

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  2. Thanks again.

    A couple of points:
    1. Would you say that the LibDem campaign is more 'presidential' than usual and that this may be drowning out some of their local strengths? In East Dunbarton the President Jo factor may be 'trumping' Jo The Pavement Politician (and she's never been particularly great as the latter going by the wee snippets of comment I've read).
    2. I'm sure that, in amongst all the chatter, someone recently said that the Tories were in 2nd place (behind the SNP) in the Caithness &c seat. Makes some sense that there should be a Leave v. Remain contest in an area that was fairly evenly split at the EuroRef.

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    1. I think we can can all conclude, voters of East Dunbartonshire
      included, that there is absolutely zero chance of Swindon ever becoming 'president'.

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    2. Indeed. But the increasing negativity towards her as she becomes better known may be relevant. And the fact that her favourite album seems to be "Long Distance" by Runrig may not help her to be a successful local pavement politician.

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    3. The LibDems will be regretting the day they elected JS as leader. The more TV exposure she gets, the lower her public standing becomes. She just seems to turn people off. I suggest they cut their losses and keep her out of sight and earshot for another week. The tories are doing something similar with BJ. If the LibDems keep Jo hidden away for a few more days, they may just manege to hold East Dumbartonshire.

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  3. Similarity with the October 1974 election where a party advances in most seats and fall back just a touch in some of the seats held. It was the SNP that gained 6 seats in the previous February election and went on to gain another 4 seats in October. The SNP vote fell back in the 3 North East seats of Moray and Nairn, Aberdeenshire East and Banffshire.

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  4. Well, suprise surprise, BBC Scotland making a big issue of tactical voting this morning. Now I wonder why? Which party in Scotland would be vulnerable to tactical voting I ask? They needn't have bothered - the tpries have already turned most of the British nationalists in Scotland into single issue voters (anyone but SNP), but I guess it's a sign just how nervous the british establishment is about another yellow Tsunami forming. :)

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  5. There is a lot of chat that while Swinson is undeniably having a poor campaign, she is going down even more badly in the traditional liberal heartlands of rural Scotland and the West Country.

    So, they may hang on to place like Edinburgh West, Dunbartonshire East and gain a few in and around London on the back of a slightly improved position relative to 2017.

    But seats like Caithness are at risk and makes gains in SW England look unlikely.

    And what about NE Fife? Does that count as a rural seat or is that commuter belt territory these days? Good news for the SNP if it tends to the former.

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    1. NE Fife is a mixed bag. St Andrews and Taybridgehead are very much University dominated (many Dundee and St Andrews university staff live in Wormit, Newport and Tayport) - traditionally strong Lib Dem demographics, but Gethins is actually quite popular among that group. East Neuk is rural Tory. Levenmouth and Kennoway is former Labour territory and should yield many SNP votes if they can get the vote out.

      Gethins definitely in with a good chance of holding on.

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    2. Re: NE Fife, forgot Cupar and Newburgh - much of which is rural. SNP v Tory area - SNP should win the ward easily.

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    3. Yeah, can't see Swinson playing well with the bulk of the academia set!

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  6. Lets all get behind Neale Hanvey in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, standing both for independence and women's rights. Don't let the SNP leadership deprive us of another pro-independence MP. Crowdfunder target reached, so we have momentum, please help out where you can.

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  7. To be honest I'm struggling to see the appeal of the Lib Dems these days. In years gone past, they could have been seen as a moderate alternative to the two big UK parties. But this time, they present as being as staunchly Remain as SNP, and as staunchly Unionist as the Tories.

    But in fact, they are less certainly Remain these days, the more they give off hints they could prop up the Tories. a pro-Remain Unionist might be tempted to go for Labour as more likely to pull off an actual Brexit referendum than the LibDems.

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  8. How are the LibDems doing in Ian Blackford's constituency?

    Could tactical voting mess up model predictions?

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    Replies
    1. Not really if the Yougov MRP is to go by. He has a 20+% lead.

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    2. So the media slavering over tactical voting is just scaremongering/incitement?

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  9. Education results piss, hospitals failing and more Jocks dying from the bevvy. The Scots need to get off their Scottish Nat si addiction and vote Labour.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks, but I'll vote for a party who respect democracy. We voted to leave.

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    2. And this is after Westminster has kept over forty% of Scottish taxes, to spend on things in England, deemed of benefit to the people of Scotland.




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  10. I had a quick look at YouGovs MRP for Tory held seats in Scotland. On average the Tories are down 1. Labour are down 8, Lib Dems up 6 and SNP up 4. That means that Labour voters are split between voting Lib Dem or voting SNP and are not tactically voting Tory. At the moment this gives the SNP Stirling and East Ren, but if Labour voters shift from the Lib Dems to the SNP it brings a half dozen seats into play.

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  11. Looks like Tories who previously voted to stop the SNP are more concerned about " Get Brexit Done"

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