Sunday, November 24, 2019

First full-scale Scottish poll of the campaign suggests SNP vote has INCREASED

Well, it's only taken the best part of a month, but at last we have the first Scottish poll of the campaign - and it's a Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times.  Better still, the fieldwork took place after Tuesday, so we don't have to put a question mark over the results due to the rigged debate on ITV.  The trends are pretty much in line with what YouGov subsamples have been suggesting - ie. that the SNP vote has held up, that the Tory vote has sharply rebounded at the expense of the Brexit Party, that Labour have flatlined and that the Lib Dems have drifted downwards.

Scottish voting intentions for UK general election (Panelbase):

SNP 40% (+1)
Conservatives 28% (+7)
Labour 20% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-2)

The seats projection published in the Sunday Times suggests the SNP would take 41 seats on these figures, and that the Tories would hold 12, losing only Stirling.  Because of the media's tendency to treat the last poll they saw as gospel, we're now going to hear the mantra that "the polls" show that the Scottish Tories have completely ridden out the storm and are going to hold their seats - and that'll be somewhat misleading to say the least.  Whether the Tories hold seats depends not only on their own share of the vote but on the SNP's.  Even if the Tory vote is exactly the same as it was in 2017, there'll still be a net swing from Tory to SNP if the SNP's own vote increases.  And, indeed, Panelbase suggests the SNP's vote is up three points on 2017.  But here's the thing - Panelbase have not been the most favourable pollster for the SNP in recent times.  The last five Panelbase polls before tonight had the SNP somewhere between 37% and 39%, whereas the last three YouGov polls have had the SNP on either 42% or 43%.  If we imagine for the sake of argument that YouGov are closer to being right, that could mean there'd be a swing of as much as 4% from Tory to SNP, and that would bring considerably more than one Tory seat into play for the SNP.

And in any case, all of this is assuming a uniform national swing, which is very unlikely to happen.  As Professor Curtice himself points out in the Sunday Times piece, if Panelbase are basically right but there is a local swing that is 2% greater, another four Tory seats could fall.

There's also an independence question in the Panelbase poll, and it shows Yes support continuing to hold firm at an elevated level.  49% support for independence is several points higher than the average in Panelbase polls last year, and the one-point drop since the last poll is statistically insignificant.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 49% (-1)
No 51% (+1)

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Click here for a handy list of SNP election crowdfunders.

97 comments:

  1. SNP net gain 6 seats
    Fibdems gain 1 seat
    blue tories lose 1 seat
    red tories lose 6 seats

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  2. If me and electoral calculus have analysed this poll correctly, then we have:

    SNP 41 seats

    Conservatives 12 seats

    Liberals 5 seats,

    and Labour 1 seat.

    It will be, interesting to see whether that is anywhere near reality come election day.

    Any errors are mine.

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  3. This is a fairly pathetic result for the SNP. With everything that has happened - the radicalisation of the Tory right, Boris as PM, the most extreme Tory government in generations - they should be doing far better than potentially gaining half a dozen seats, only one of which is Tory.

    If they can't do better than that then independence is pretty much off the agenda for the foreseeable future.

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    1. Sigh. As stated in the blogpost, Panelbase are not the most favourable pollster for the SNP, and in fact 40% is the SNP's best showing with Panelbase for over two years. The SNP are not to blame for the house effects of particular pollsters. It's highly likely that a YouGov poll conducted over the same period would show a bigger SNP lead.

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    2. It's not far off the Yougov subsamples though, is it? Such a considerable Tory surge should surely be of some concern to the SNP. And Labour seem to be creeping back up too. And as we know, Panelbase underestimated Labour by about 5 points at the last election. Another cause for trepidation.

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    3. I'm having to repeat what I said in the blogpost, but the difference between Panelbase and YouGov is enough to make the difference between only Stirling going to the SNP, and several other Tory seats going to the SNP. An extra 2-4% for the SNP over and above what Panelbase are suggesting would make a big difference. Where is the evidence that Labour are creeping back up? They were at 22% with Panelbase as recently as March. And as for any underestimation of Labour at the last election, that should (in theory) be rectified by past vote weighting. Time will tell.

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    4. The SNP lead is down from 18% to 12% in just over a month, and you don't find that even mildly concerning?

      They've gone from total wipeout territory, to "let's hope we can hold on to all of our seats". That's devastating for the viability of the independence cause.

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    5. I'm getting very close to wondering whether this is an example of "concern trolling" - ie. a unionist posing as a "worried SNP supporter" to try to lower morale. I repeat: this is the best SNP showing in any Panelbase poll for more than two years. The Tory recovery (which has been evident in subsamples for some time now) is at the expense of the Brexit Party. There's not much the SNP or anyone else can do about a swing from one unionist party to another.

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    6. Fine, but post-election when the SNP demand a second independence referendum, don't be surprised when Westminster politicians point to the fact the SNP picked up a single Tory seat as a sign Unionism remains strong in Scotland.

      If the Tories are able to hold on to as many as 12 of 13 Scottish seats, the narrative and the momentum will be very much behind the idea that, against all odds, Unionism held firm.

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    7. Oh come on. The SNP could take all 59 seats and the unionist media would still find some killer reason why it's not good enough.

      Self-evidently the momentum is with the party gaining six seats, and not with the party losing one seat.

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    8. Tories down on 2017 and SNP up by three times as much hitting a 2 year record high for the least SNP friendly pollster there is. That's the only way to factually describe this.

      I can't see how the Tories can meaningfully surpass their 2017 high, not unless there was an even bigger fall in turnout this time. They are tapping the same pool of people (mainly brexiters), which if anything, has shrunk a little.

      This means every tiny fraction of the vote the SNP is able to gain on 2017 sees unionists fall all. A few % and they start tumbling all over the place.

      For unionists to make gains, they need SNP share to fall sharply, ideally well below the 35% sweet spot which sees you start making big country-wide gains under FPTP. With indy support at ~50%, this seems highly unlikely.

      Also, the poll predicts and incredible SNP victory. For example 41 seats would be 70%. That's an epic landslide of historical proportions. It would utterly dwarf current predictions for the Tories of 54% across the UK and be a crushing blow for them north of Gretna.

      And unionists have made clear that any SNP gains = people moving to independence / support for that rising. This is what they said in 2017 (SNP loses = the opposite), and the public remember that.

      Also incredible that indy remains at 50/50 for a snap iref tomorrow with no white paper/plan set out and while the UK remains firmly in the EU without an extremist Scottish hating majority government. Just imagine what will happen to those numbers if the racist anti-Scottish English nationalist win and then try to end Scottish democracy with their jackboots.

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  4. If accurate, a 10% swing to the SNP would almost certainly leave Labour with 1 seat again. Lib Dems would gain North East Fife and hold their other seats, with their other target of Ross, Skye and Lochaber probably being out of reach.

    What happens to Tory seats is unclear. I suspect the swing to the SNP will be bigger in the more central belt and remain seats. Tory gains are probably unlikely but I think it's clear the Tories will hold their south and North East seats easily. However Stirling, Ochil/Perthshire South, East Renfrewshire and would be closely fought indeed and maybe too close to call.

    So seatswise I would predict SNP 40-43, CON 10-13, LIB 5 and LAB 1

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    1. Apologies for being a pedant, but the swing from Labour to SNP is 5%, not 10%. It still has the effect on seats that you suggest, though.

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    2. Oops, I wrote swing when I was actually thinking of the increase in lead by 10%. Labour are by far the SNP'a biggest threat so any increase is good news.

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    3. "Oops". Girly word. Surprised you lot don't say oops a daisy and run off giggling to get your hair painted.

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  5. French journalist on BBC says you can't trust the polls, especially the polls in the UK
    Polls are designed to exploit you not inform you

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    1. French journalist on BBC. Says it all. We pay to listen to some onion Jonny scouting a load of trash on TV. Thus is why we should Get Brexit Done

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  6. If the Tories are back at GE 2017 levels in the UK they are likely to be back there in Scotland as shown by this poll. Panelbase tend to overestimate Labour (see their polling for the Euros) and as James said this is the best SNP result for two years with this firm.

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    1. At the start of the year, panelbase had the SNP consistently on 37%.

      This started creeping up in April after the first cancelled brexit. It was 38% until the beginning of last month when it climbed to 39%. This 40% implies is quite a sharp rise by comparison, suggesting a possible mini SNP surge since the GE was announced; something hinted at by UK subsamples.

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    2. Also, ahead of 2017, SNP share was falling consistently from October 2016 through to election day in June 2017. It was subtle at first, then the decline picked up pace rapidly following the GE announcement in April.

      So far, polls have SNP doing steadily the opposite this time around. They've been increasing their share steadily, with hints at possible mini acceleration in this post announcement.

      Scant data, but certainly on the face of it a much better picture.

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  7. The fact that this poll still shows Yes at 49% is interesting and leaves much for the SNP to play for over the next couple of weeks.

    It will be interesting to see if we get any other polls before polling day. UK wide polls have a wide range of leads for the Tories. They can't all be right.

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    1. Yes, they can. Think about it before tweeting while drunk. It's only obvious.

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  8. I think there is a lot wishful thinking going on here.

    Most of the polls in May/June 2017 showed the SNP higher and the Tories lower than the actual vote shares on polling day. There is little reason to believe that it won't be the same this time, and may arguably be worse because turnout could well be even lower this time.

    But even if the Panelbase poll is spot on I rather suspect it is bad news for the SNP in the context of Tory seats because any increase in its share is coming from 2017 Labour voters while it is losing Leave voters to the Tories.

    Not only does this suggest the chances of recapturing Tory seats in Aberdeenshire, Angus and the Borders look quite remote it brings the loss of Perth & NP and Argyll & Bute into play.

    That doesn't mean the SNP won't do well in terms of seats on balance. It should win all but one Labour seat and the 4 Tory seats where there was a meaningful Labour vote in 2017; Aberdeen South, Ayr, Stirling and Ochil & SP.

    I wouldn't rule out a surprise SNP gain in Caithness as it seems Swinson is turning LibDem voters in their traditional Highland, Border and West Country heartlands off in their droves.

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    1. I have been sceptical about 2015 levels of wipe out. I'm not sure that will be repeated by any party ever. Winning 42 to 44 seats is realistic and if achieved I will be pretty happy. Just as Johnson or Corbyn would be delighted if they took 75% of the seats.

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  9. With polls at 50/50 Y/N with yes steadily rising, for this to be a 'union saving election' it needs to be won decisively by a unionist party with a solid majority of Scottish seats. Ideally, this party would also be the UK-wide winner and be anti-brexit, eliminating the 'democratic deficit' argument and iref2 mandate justification.

    I think that's a bit of a long shot based on current polling.

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  10. Is this poll not just showing that the brexit party vote in Scotland has moved to the Tories?

    Also shows that the Tories have captured about 70% of the Brexit vote and the SNP retaining 80% of the pro-indy support.

    With the greens standing down in some seats and the Brexit party in others it will make seat projections pretty difficult

    Overall the SNP being on 40-43% feels about right as a reflection of a campaign thats offered the pro-indy vote only arguments and nothing tangible to vote for. Sturgeon did the same in 2017 and suffered the effects of voter apathy in the lead up to voting day. I think she needs to offer something more tangible or she risks similar issues.

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    1. Aye, it says 'Tories should at best do as well as last time' and if the SNP gain a few points, the Tories will start losing seats.

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  11. From the Sunday Times poll:

    With Brexit and independence two major campaign issues, the Panelbase survey, conducted from November 20 to 22, shows 37% of voters in Scotland believe independence is the greatest threat to the Scottish economy, while 39% believe Brexit is the biggest risk. About a quarter (24%) say neither or that both are equal.

    Independence is seen in positive terms by nearly twice as many, however, with 45% saying it offers the greater opportunity to the Scottish economy, compared with 24% for Brexit and 31% who say neither or that both are equal. Support for Scottish independence has dropped one point from last month’s poll to 49%.

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  12. Can't see anything to be pessimistic about from a SNP/Indy supporter point of view in this poll. Yes the SNP getting more seats would be very welcome (and nothing to say they won't this is only one poll after all with all the caveats James has mentioned) but a 6 seat gain is nothing to be sniffed at.

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  13. That's a decent poll. No sign of any Corbyn surge after his giveaway mainifesto, and if the Scottish data keeps SLAB in 3rd until late in the game, then the SNP can tactically squeeze the SLAB vote to evict more Torys.

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    1. Labour are the only party putting progress policies to the people. The Tartan and Blue Tories are stuck in their Capitalist bankers past.

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  14. I'm a wee bit disappointed hoped the SNP would be in the middle 40s and looking to take more than 1 seat off the Tories .As James has said it's only one poll and with caveat in mind don't want to get too despondent a gain in seats is a gain.

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  15. As you probably know yourself James, I think the 'national polls' will not be very useful in accurately predicting 'seat share' because of tactical voting on a massive scale. Last time the right wing were on to this quickly and exploited it 'Ruth'lessly but this time I feel the the top will spin and fall in favour of SNP becuase everyone who wanted to vote tactically for the British Nationalist cause have already done so. I think ast time the SNP lost votes to the more apathetic (who did not vote) and to the Greens. This time many will return to the SNP. In short I think the SNP will gain 4 from the Tories and five from Labour......

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  16. Tories have made zero gains in a 2 years. They've been at 28% a few times with panelbase since 2017. It's their upper bound. It's hardly news.

    SNP are at their highest in 2 years though with this pollster.

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    1. I think you are probably right and John Curtis alludes to it in the Sunday Times the Tories probably maxed out their No referendum vote in 2017 and Ruth Davidson is no longer leading the charge .
      I know it's maybe only 2 or 3% of the vote if that but the Orange Order and the main Rangers message boards are pushing the vote Conservative and UNIONIST line .Last time many of them voted Labour the beat the Nats but now they are saying Corbyn is an IRA supporter and they can't vote for him .Annie Wells is also doing her best by running round Glasgow trying to resurrect the Teddy Taylor tenement Tory begging Labour voters to vote Tory to stop 2 referendums .The Tories can add two or three per cent in Glasgow seats and gain nothing but a slight increase in their national share of the vote ,hopefully this is balanced out by them losing 2 or 3 % in Ochils East Ren etc

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  17. 59 seats to play for, and almost zero chance of the Unionist parties taking 30 or more together, and absolutely zero chance of any one of them doing it.

    It's another endorsement for Indy if the SNP get 30 or more. It's that simple folks. Don't let Westminster parties set the rules according to them.

    The SNP had 60% of Scottish seats last time. Polls suggest more this time. If 2017 was the SNP's modern low point, things are going to get better.

    Panelbase are not so good for the SNP. I predict 45% or so. 50 seats or so.

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    1. This concerns me a lot. What happens on election night if Panelbase do the counting? Would they just ignore votes?

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  18. I'd be intersted to see the crosstabs and 'flow of the vote'.

    In terms of the Tories this poll confirms what local by-elections have been saying. It has Labour higher and the SNP lower which is notable. Lib Dems a little lower too.

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  19. Aye, It looks like concern trolling to me. Get the heid up man.
    The signs are good. Yes groups here are boosting SNP activity.
    We'll done McIntyre Kemp for the braw Scotland the Brief leaflets from business for Scotland.
    We're putting out thousands.
    Educate the people on Scotland's wealth. They'll vote SNP.

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  20. Interesting article in the Weekend section of the Irish Times focusing on David Linden, Paul Masterson and Paul Sweeney's seats.

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    1. Like the froggy TV man on the BBC. Read foreign papers and hate Britain. This muck should be banned.

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  21. This is the most 'British' election in Scotland by a country mile. It's for the 'British parliament' and 'British policy decisions'.

    It's the least Scottish election. Nothing to specifically do with indy (the mandate for that is from PR Holyrood, e.g. 2014 when Labour held the majority of Scots MPs) and not directly to do with anything like the NHS, Schools, transport, the environment etc.

    Instead, it oozes Britishness with union jack pants.

    Yet the British parties are doing absolutely shite in it in terms of winning seats. This should be their election, yet it looks like they'll be whipped again.

    If they don't make significant gains, all branch office leaders should resgin.

    Likewise, if Johnson can't make major gains in Scotland, N. Ireland and Wales as 'Minister for the union', he should be resigning too.

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    1. One could also argue that with the disaster of Brexit looming, the worst PM sine Ted Heath, the most right wing government of my lifetime and the most ineffectual Leader Of The Opposition since Ian Duncan Smith and support for independence is STILL below 50%. maybe the Murrells should consider their position also?

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    2. No, support for indy is at 50% on average. Average of 52+49+49 (the three latest polls from different pollsters) is 50.

      While we are still firmly in the EU and without a hard right Tory majority government.

      It's quite incredible that 50% of folks are ready to vote for indy in a snap poll 'tomorrow' when there isn't even a plan for that, there's no Tory government, and the UK hasn't left the EU.

      Just imagine what it will be if these things actually come to pass.

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    3. Or in a few years if we simply just wait given the age demographics.

      We've already gained 5% on 2014 largely just due the passage of time.

      5 years from now, it will be solid ~55% Yes even if nobody net changes their mind due to political factors.

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    4. Geacher: Whoever is paying you to post this stuff should ask for a refund, because we saw straight through you weeks ago.

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    5. Is that the sound of straws being clutched I hear? 108 BPC polls since 2014, and only two (that's *2*) have shown support at over 50%.
      Also Mr Skier, your "50% of folks are ready to vote for indy" isn't correct either isn't it because the polls you quote are excluding *don't knows*… the correct figure for those who have come out said they will vote for independence is about 44%

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    6. Poll results are typically reported with the don't knows removed.

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  22. I too was concerned when I first saw this poll. I had hoped for 45pc ish for SNP but I accept that Panelbase are on the low side for SNP and that's probably why the Times use them. However, I was encouraged by the 49pc level for independence and although I agree with some of what geacher says I would point out that Brexit has not yet happened and when it does that id when the UK will feel the cold. I would also point out that Boris's Tories have not been in power yet and that when we witness the effects of their unfettered fascistic policies I think we will see that 49 rise quite quickly. WT

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  23. Support for Independence according to *polls* appears to have risen a little but is holding firm and that's before the actual question is proposed on a ballot paper hence the immediate increase in internet activity by people who oppose the proposition
    and we see that Wings has launched into his inevitable rant of why I hate the SNP which always instantly attracts even more of the opposition to Independence to his website

    It's fairly easy to spot a Liberal Democrat at work

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  24. For fun my weekly rolling average of subsamples (excluding the highest and lowest samples for each party to remove outliers)

    SNP 42
    CON 27
    LAB 14
    LIB 13

    There's actually been an uptick for the SNP in a lot of the subsamples.

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    1. Aye, I noticed that too. Agrees with the uptick Panelbase have found.

      My less uber conservative PoP gives:
      SNP 46
      CON 24
      LAB 14
      LIB 11
      BRX 2
      GRN 1

      It looks like the GRN and BRX votes have all but dried up now, shifting to parties that have a chance of taking seats.

      I think full Scottish polls could be underestimating SNP due to Labour overestimation. They are Westminster past vote weighting to Scotland. This isn't accurate unless past Westminster vote matches past Holyrood vote. As these diverged again post 2016, it's quite possible polls are underestimating Yes/SNP just like pollsters concluded they were post 2010/2014.

      It may be false recall, but more likely is people saying who they support (as reflected in Holyrood PR) rather than who the tactically voted for, coupled with lying about turning out. If you look at Westminster 2017 recall in base samples, people recall voting in 2017 almost like the did in 2016, giving SNP mid to upper 40's. This clearly didn't happen, and results in pollsters downweighting SNP/Yes.

      The same happened in post 2011, where people recalled voting in 2010 much more like they did in 2011. As a result, 2010 weighting just have rubbish, and only 2011 weighting worked.

      Only time will tell. It wasn't a problem for 2015 as 2011 weighting was still being used. Likewise it was fine for 2017 as 2015 and 16 shares were again very close.

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    2. It is obvious to everyone that the Jock Nat sis will take most seats in Westminster and their Mps will enjoy an excellent lifestyle that those who vote for them will not. The majority of Scots will not vote for the Nat sis and will have very little voice in Westminster as the Nat sis have no intention of recognising their very existence. The Nat sis are like Sinn Fein IRA who do not respect diversity of opinion and are fascists.

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    3. Are you wearing your Carmen Miranda costume today?

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    4. A agree GWC. We need tae vote tae stoap sendin MPs aw the way sooth tae Inglund. Vote fir indaependence!

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    5. Your comment suggests that not only are you a Nat si prick but know the British Union will prevail. Is it the plastic bag or a level crossing demise.

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    6. Skier, how can you stop them going south tae collect their money and troll around Hampstead Heath on cold winter nights. Better than Kelvin Way.

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    7. Have you stopped trawling around the Way in your outfits, Jordelia?

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    8. The audacity of colonised countries to fight back against their English invaders is just astonishing, how very dare they

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    9. GWC, it was you that voted for SNP MPs to keep going to Westminster in 2014. 'Don't leave the UK, lead the UK' was your rallying cry.

      The SNP only exist because of unionists. I can't wait for the day the SNP can finally disband. It's you that have voted to keep them in a job by backing the union. If the union ends, the SNP will end with it.

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    10. Labour is a unionist party. By voting for the union, you vote for the existence of the SNP. This is obvious. There is no country in union in the world where there is not a pro-independence party. If you don't want pro-indy parties to exist, you need to end the union. It's the only way of achieving that.

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    11. I'm not sure who I'd vote for post indy. I lie between old labour, the old lib dems (pre-orange book), and the modern day greens. Hence the SNP are a good match.

      A 'Social Democrats' of the just left of centre socially liberal mold would fit me well.

      It would be great to remove the regional 'Scottish' prefix from all the party names. Labour would just be 'Labour', the Tories, just the 'Conservatives' etc.

      And no more talk of independence. It would completely stop. All gone.

      Glorious normality!

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    12. A social Democrat is just an excuse for a neo Liberal elite.

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  25. If the English Government, because it is the English Government with EVEL, English Laws For English Votes being implemented without a Parliamentarian vote.This completely broke the Treaty of the Union of the Scottish and English Parliaments

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    1. England gave up its government 1707. Are you a David Irving admirer?

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  26. Let's stop using the 2015 high water mark as a yardstick. The 2015 GE result was a one off owing to a unique set of circumstances. After 2015 the British bars in Scotland thought it was business as usual and went back to their pre referendum voting habits, spitting the unionist vote and creating the catastrophic result they observed the following day. The britnats now realise that the tectonic plates have shifted and they have to vote tactically against the SNP. They learned a painful lead n in 2015. It will be a tactical anti SNP vote from every election now until independence. Which is why the 2015 result was unique never to be repeated. The SNP will get a good result in December nevertheless so keep smiling folks.

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  27. Poll tables are out:

    Labour retention rate is stable from 69% to 67% with slightly more going to the SNP (13% to 17%) but the Tories are picking up 10% up from 3%.

    Conservative retention vote is up from 69% to 80% due to the collapse of the Brexit Party. Votes to Labour and Lib Dems (small) is still stable

    Lib Dem retention is up from 76% to 80%, but Tories up from 7% to 12%.

    SNP retention rate is stable 90% from 88% in their last poll.

    So as expected, Brexit collapse goes back to the Tories and a small shift from the other unionist parties.

    They also split votes by Brexit standing/not standing. Small subsamples, but the SNP lead the Tories by 10% in seats where Brexit aren't standing and SNP lead labour by 15% where they are (and lead the Tories by 18%)

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    1. I recorded the VI of LTV 2017 voters differently

      SNP (N=317) SNP 86% : Slab 4% : SCon 2% : SLD 1% : Oth 1%? : DK 3%
      SCon (N=234) SCon 75% : SLD 12% Slab 3% : SNP 2% : Oth 2%? : DK 7%
      SLab (N=207) Slab 60% : SNP 15% : SCon 9% : SLD 4% : Oth 1%? : DK 10%
      SLD (N=58) SLD 68% : SCon 10% : Slab 3% : Oth 2%? : SNP 1% : DK 14%

      How will these DKs vote (if they actually do)?

      Where are those voters who have changed allegiance? eg SLab. If voting SMP in Tory seats, possible game changer. If in safe SNP seats, no difference.

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  28. Quick calculation, based on changes with 2017

    Seats where Brexit stand

    CON -4
    LAB -3
    LIB +3
    SNP +1

    Seats without Brexit

    CON 0
    LAB -11
    LIB +4
    SNP +4

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  29. Whatever happened to that old Opus Dei bloke David Francis. I miss his Rambling Rose.

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    1. Roses are blooming in Picardy. And in your beautiful hair arrangement.

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    2. Pope Frank from the Argie despotic right wing country in Japan spreading paedophilia.

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    3. The Grubby Weirdo Cunt is intoxicated from sniffing nazi nic's naught nicks again. Ya dirty Grubby Weirdo Cunt.

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  30. According to the unionist calculus, every vote for a unionist party is allowed to be counted as a vote against independence, whereas votes for the SNP are not necessarily counted towards independence.

    To the extent that the SNP manifesto will be more overtly pro indy (?) then the SNP vote could be more firmly deduced to be for independence?

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    1. That is pure dead clever man. Have you thought of standing for a political party? Good money innit.

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  31. What is it with folk who think the SNP should disband after Independence, they'll still be a political party and still the only democratic party so why on earth would they disband, to do what?
    The SNP don't exist just to do Independence, they're not the bloody Brexit party and anyway It'll take a couple of years to complete Independence at least so someone has to see all that through and damned if it gets left to any of the Unionist idiots to take part in and I'll tell you what if Nicola Sturgeon still wants it she could be FM or whatever title we come up with for years yet, the Angela Merkel of Scottish politics, because when the world comes calling on Scotland who do we want speaking for us

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    1. I personally think it would be really stupid to continue to fight for Scottish independence if Scotland was an independent country. It just wouldn't attract voters.

      Also, when a country is not independent, using words like 'national' in the title and calling for independence is fine. When the country is already independent, 'nationalism' is generally dark and scary.

      Once Scotland is established as an indy country, the title 'SNP' and central policy really are best consigned to history.

      As it stands, we are missing a 'Social Democratic Liberal' party and the SNP are currently filling that role, hence the light yellow flag.

      I don't think anyone is actually suggesting all those in the party suddenly step down or anything, but it's kinda obvious some rebranding will be needed once things are all done and dusted.

      Also, I'll note that former British parties will unlikely survive indy. They are branch offices of English parties. If you cut of them off, they will wither and die. Holyrood will likely look completely different within a few parliamentart sessions. The only party that might struggle on would be the Tories, who could continue to argue for rejoining the union like a bunch of erses.

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    2. Politicians do not like giving up power or their inflated salaries. Independence will not enhance the conditions of the working class. Holyrood has to bite the bullet and dispense of over a third MSPs, preferably before the next Scottish election.
      In the event of independence Scotland will probably move further to the right than it presently is. Nationalist parties do tend to want to hold onto power.

      Delete
    3. That'll be the end of the word National then, like National Football team Rugby team, Oh my what shall we do with the National audit office or anything with the word National in it
      The implications that were invented by Westminster to stick on the SNP over the word National when they stuck the *ist* on the end of it were propaganda and you're still falling for it, the word killer sounds bad till you put weed in front of it

      Delete
    4. Ok, you vote for The British National Party or National Front if you like.

      If Britain was not independent, the name BNP could be innocuous enough, assuming the BNP were just seeking that. If a country isn't independent, national parties may be 'national', i.e. seeking nationhoood.

      If the country is already independent, they can't be seeking that, so must be some form of nationalist. Nationalist parties usually are not super nice.

      The UK Tories are nationalist; hence the flag in the logo etc. In fact all British parties have been increasingly nationalist, even the lib dems through their opposition to an iref (rather than just opposing independence).

      Delete
    5. Being a serial misunderstander doesn't make you right, it makes you look like what you are, a person who deliberately twists anything that makes you in your head right, which is wrong and is easily seen
      There's nothing wrong with a word, it's the use it's put to and that can be done with any word
      Independent as a word is fine so why not National like the post office or any other company that is National
      You have a British mindset so you'll body swerve anything that makes you wrong that's why you revert to the insult of inferring I would vote for British Nationalist parties just because they contain the word National
      You exhibit the same behaviour as that which made you unpopular on WOS and that's why you live here now under a different name

      Delete
    6. I've been very clear in my posts. You are just being unpleasant, that's all.

      I haven't posted on WoS since it started getting more than about 30 readers, which is a very long time ago, and I couldn't give a rats ass if I was popular or not. I've never posted under any name but this one. You are just a liar who hides behind 'anon'. Regular readers on hear know my full name.

      I'm a member of the SNP and I think the current party name is absolutely fine for all the reasons I've clearly spelled out. You are just wrong so don't want to understand.

      Post indy however, a name that was chosen to signify the fight for nationhood open to all in that nation, doesn't make a lot of sense, not long term when regaining naitonhood is well behind Scotland, and may be used by political opponents to attack the SNP if it still exists. Such attacks don't work right now as Scotland isn't independent; the innocuous reasons for the SNP are obvious to all, no matter how much unionists try to twist things.

      Anyway, I'm not going to waste more time conversing with someone so unpleasant.

      Delete
    7. "The UK Tories are nationalist; hence the flag in the logo etc. In fact all British parties have been increasingly nationalist"

      Are you inviting us to recognise some kind of British nation? The word you are looking for is "statist" -- and you can then argue that worship of the state is a big step towards fascism.

      Delete
    8. In the minds of some Brits it is (they nationally identify that way), and I'm hardly alone in using such terminology (e.g. 'Brit nats'). But yes, I agree on 'statist' being more correct.

      There is no well-defined British nation, only a centralised unitary state. It's why when asked to define 'Britishness', people struggle, and normally just produce a list of mainly English things.

      Delete
  32. A quick look at recent polling and Yougov generally get the SNP at 4% higher than Panelbase, which might suggest 44% SNP currently.

    Yougov have always been on the low side for SNP, panelbase too. Both tend to underestimate final outcomes by a few points.

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  33. Today's Survation has the SNP on 30% despite 100% of 2017 SNP voters backing the party, the Lib Dems 2nd and Brexit Party twice as popular than in England. Shows the need for full scale polling!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Erm, aye!

      That's what happens when the poll is demographically weighted to a different country (namely England/Britain). You will just get utter rubbish sometimes with subsamples. The margin of error is huge, even more than it should be for the sample size as it's not weighted.

      The MoE for the Scots sample size (70 odd) here should be like +/-12%, but only if that sample had been weighted to the Scottish demographic...

      Delete
    2. The Welsh Nat si leader claims that an independent Wales will have a louder voice in the EU. They currently have four MEPs and a sense of humour.

      Delete
    3. They'd have a seat on the European Council and a veto over the Brexited England-EU trade deal + any future deals the EU makes.

      They'd also have around 10 MEPs, which is over three times current levels.

      So the statement you refer to is correct.

      Delete
  34. The bint whose leader of the Welsh Free-me-leeks Party helped that nazi sientist Modrechai Vanunu to develop an atom bomb

    ReplyDelete
  35. IposMori Scottish poll coming out on Thursday. YouGov MRP model coming out Wednesday night.

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    Replies
    1. Average of last 4 MORI subsamples:
      46% SNP
      22% Con
      12% Lab
      2% Brx
      2% Grn

      Average of last 2 MORI subsamples (Oct + Nov):
      47% SNP
      27% Con
      12% Lab
      2% Brx
      0% Grn

      MORI tend to look better for the SNP. So approaching mid 40's seems conservative and in line with Yes up consistently, while the Tories have won back their 2017 brexit vote from Farage but no more.

      Delete
    2. I can make numbers up to. I do it at the bingo.

      Delete
  36. This is nuts stuff.

    English Labour won just 23% of the vote in Holyrood 2016, yet that apparently entitles them to overturn the result, implementing their own policies instead of those of the winning party.

    The deep racist hatred for Scots is now fully out in the open. Only votes for English parties count.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50543703

    And the BBC is openly racist too. They as a broadcaster are now choosing to openly call for Scottish politicians to resign as they see fit. Gone is any semblance of impartiality. If you are politician from a Scottish party the BBC will itself ask you to resign, then headline with it if you politely suggest it's not up to them.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50537191

    ReplyDelete
  37. Is sex dirty? Only when it’s being done right. Hey, i am looking for an online sexual partner ;) Click on my boobs if you are interested (. )( .)

    ReplyDelete