Saturday, June 1, 2019

We've got to get out of this place: UK on course to elect Farage as Prime Minister, says Opinium poll

Britain-wide voting intentions for Westminster (Opinium):

Brexit Party 26% (+1)
Labour 22% (-4)
Conservatives 17% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+4)
Greens 11% (+7)
SNP 4% (n/c)
Plaid Cymru 1% (n/c)
Change UK 1% (-1)
UKIP 1% (-1)

It's no great surprise that it's the Brexit Party rather than the Liberal Democrats that have the lead in this poll, because the Lib Dem lead in the YouGov poll the other night was wafer-thin and was reported by a pollster that had recently been producing much more favourable numbers for the Lib Dems than other polling firms.  But what is a surprise is that the Lib Dems are languishing in fourth place, and appear to have got less of a boost from the Euro election result than the Greens.  And what may go unnoticed due to the impact of an outright Farage lead is that the Brexit Party themselves are only 1% up - a counterintuitive finding given that the Tories are 5% down.

When things are in such a state of flux, opinion poll results themselves can help to generate momentum and thus affect future polling, and from that point of view it's worth remembering that the Opinium fieldwork preceded the publication of the YouGov poll.  So perhaps there's a secondary Lib Dem boost that Opinium haven't been able to pick up yet.

In case you're consoling yourself with the thought that Brexit Party support is too evenly-spread for first-past-the-post and that Farage wouldn't be able to become Prime Minister on 26% of the vote, the seat projection from Electoral Calculus based on this poll tells a grimmer tale.  The Brexit Party would be just 20 seats short of an overall majority, and with the Tories holding on to 26 seats, there would be no realistic majority for any government other than a Farage-led government.  That said, I'm not sure what assumptions Electoral Calculus are making about the geographical distribution of support for the Brexit Party, which is, after all, a party that only received its first ever votes just over a week ago.

Nigel Farage has taken out an each-way bet with his Brexit Party adventure - he can either win directly by becoming Prime Minister, or he can win indirectly by spooking the Tories into embracing No Deal.  It's becoming increasingly hard to see how he can possibly lose.

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86 comments:

  1. Was that an opium poll young James?

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    1. Emperor Haile UnlikelyJune 4, 2019 at 5:10 PM

      Are you doubling up with Widdecombe? You know? Double-ender?

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  2. Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 26% (-9)
    BXP: 24% (+18)
    CON: 20% (-12)
    LDM: 16% (+9)

    Via
    @DeltapollUK
    , FW Unknown.
    Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.

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  3. Classic example of opinion polls being used to change rather than measure public opinion.

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  4. To be fair, Farage can only be PM if he is elected a seat. You can't assume that would happen without knowing: A) the projected distribution of seat, and B) where he would be standing.

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    1. If the Brexit Party win 306 seats, it's reasonable to assume that Farage would be an MP.

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    2. Not necessarily. The PM must command the confidence of the Commons, but does not have to be a MP or Lord. Anything else is just convention, easily broken.

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  5. Farage has no intention of being PM. His contribution in politics is to get Britain out of the corrupt EU. It will happen and many more countries who already know the EU is a corrupt dictatorship will have the courage to take the step.
    Down with the fascist EU and its subservient Scottish crawlers.

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  6. I don’t normally pay much attention to newspaper or online polls for the obvious reasons, but I did do one in Dundee’s Tele the other day because it asked for your name address and also asked a number of questions about independence, such as how you voted in 2014 and how you would vote now etc.

    They ended up sampling 8,000 people, by far the biggest sample for Scotland in a long time.

    The headline is ‘Tele Poll of 8,000: Big swing in favour of YES’ with the sub header of ‘Major survey reveals huge indy support’

    Headline figures:

    75.7% Yes (although Dundee was a Yes voting city, it certainly wasn’t anything like 75%!

    Nearly one in five No voters would now vote Yes! (20% swing from no to yes!)

    3% rise for independence since Brexit! (saw this switch a lot on Revs twitter feed but 3%, wow! )

    Disappointingly Nearly one in ten Yes voters would now vote No! (nowt strange as folk!, although these voters may change their minds when the effects of Brexit are felt in their own lives a bit more)

    Only 40% of No voters say they would vote No again and wanted to leave the EU, while 83% of Yes voters say they would vote Yes again and wanted to remain in the EU (This confirms that Brexit is causing people to change how they would vote, more than anything else)

    No wonder their is an attempt to deny our democratic and EU human right to self determination!

    PS. These figures appear in the paper version of
    (Dundee’s) Telegraph dated June 1st 2019, but I’m not sure if it can be found on the ‘on-line’ version.

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    1. Richt intae, thum.

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    2. You sound like one lightbulb short of a picnic.

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    3. I use farthings, for my Picnic. Up street, down by mill.

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  7. Blog arrived after 2 A.M. 2nd of June. Always a day late for me why O why.Anyhow interesting blog but flash in the pan Farage might not be one anymore I think he still is no matter how daft they think the electorate is most are not so daft as to vote Farage into number 10.and it was not such a great turnout so maybe the clever voters stayed home, lots of maybes on a low turnout.

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    1. Labi Siffre's ReflectionJune 2, 2019 at 10:23 AM

      If you rewrite that post when sober it might make some sense

      Delete
  8. I can't help but think that this is going to be temporary, like the Lib Dem surge in 2010 was. Do the Brexit party (or the Lib Dems) really have the boots on the ground to win a general election? Peterborough by-election will be seriously interesting: IMO Labour ought to be in with a fair chance of retaining the seat, or perhaps losing only narrowly.

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    1. At the risk of making myself look foolish in a few days' time, I expect the Brexit Party to win the Peterborough by-election with a bit to spare. They were way ahead in Peterborough in the European elections, and I find it hard to imagine those voters dutifully flocking back to Labour within the space of two weeks, irrespective of boots on the ground.

      The Brexit Party surge might be a transient Cleggasm effect, but it would be dangerous to make that assumption, at least until Britain leaves the EU. This could be a genuine mould-breaking moment, like Corbyn in 2015 or Trump in 2016.

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    2. Its' not so much the longevity of this BP surge that is of direct concern, it is what effect this has on the tory party. The current BP surge will more or less ensure that a hard brexiteer gets the keys to No 10. Then all hell breaks loose.

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    3. They died, with their boots on.

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  9. I don’t believe the Brexit Party vote will diminish like UKIP did once the EUref was delivered. It’s a deeper fundamental change caused by the final end of the British empire / brexit / Scottish indy / Irish reunification.

    The Brexit Party is the hard leave wing of the Tories and associated voters thrashing out at the world as the remains of the empire sinks. Only a rock hard brexit with furriners strung up will satisfy the blood lust of much of this group, who are hell bent on blaming everyone but themselves for the current situation. Even when the economy collapses they’ll still blame Remainers / anyone furrin looking, so I doubt even a hard brexit crash will temper the rise of the fascist right. Instead it will just fuel it.

    Brexit will not have any sort of detailed manifesto for a UK GE. It would scare away all the Labour leave votes they’re hoping to get. They want a blank cheque ‘will of the people’ as they can then do what they want, with apparent electoral support. Nope, it will just be ‘Deliver brexit and hand control back to a civilian government when the job is done’ fanatasy designed only to get the keys to No 10. Once in No 10, they would move to install themselves there on a permanent basis. Emergency powers is the standard excuse used here. For this you need empty shop shelves, fuel shortages, riots etc. So it would very much be in the interests of Brexit that there is a hard crash out and economic collapse. Dark days lie ahead.

    Hitler would have loved British FPTP. He failed to win over the German people at the ballot box, so had to use violent force to take control, shutting down the democracy that had kept him in check. However, the Brexit Party only needs the opposition split into many little parties (as is happening) and the former could get a majority of MPs on just a quarter of the vote under British FPTP. 30% and they could get a very solid majority. This is the British AfD; Farage actually is president of the real German AfD in the EU parliament.

    The UK system is collapsing, so don’t think it will just all return to 'normal' in a wee while. That time has long gone now.

    Just pray Scotland can sneak out while England is too preoccupied with its own situation. There is extreme anger at Westminster developing in Scotland too. The ‘You need England’s permission for independence!’ is turning great swaths of previous no voters into firm Yes. However, if the hard right in England can establish control there, they will immediately turn their attention to the other home nations and seek to maintain their empire with full force.

    I think it is too late now for a Section 30. Scotland will very likely have to go for an iref without one. In normal circumstances, that would make international recognition hard. However, if the AfD are heading for No. 10 on a crash out brexit, all our neighbours will be openly supporting Scottish independence.

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    1. Farage is not the president of the AFD

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    2. He is president of the EFDD party / grouping in the EU parliament.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage

      President of Europe of Freedom
      and Direct Democracy[1]

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_of_Freedom_and_Direct_Democracy

      Of which the AfD is a member.

      He regular attends and speaks at AfD events.

      https://www.dw.com/en/nigel-farage-addresses-germanys-far-right-afd/a-40409465

      The BBC describe the AfD as 'far right', e.g.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46882968

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    3. The ‘You need England’s permission for independence!’ is turning great swaths of previous no voters into firm Yes.

      How do you know this? My impression is that the vast majority of No voters are basically in agreement with the Javid doctrine. But it's only an impression; I'd be interested in seeing figures on this.

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    4. EFDD 'Our president':

      http://www.efddgroup.eu/about-us/our-president

      Members:

      http://www.efddgroup.eu/members/4

      Have a look through and you can see the AfD members of the EFDD party.

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    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    6. @Keaton

      You mean like Carwyn Jones?

      Polling has never shown anything other than ~7/10 Scots saying the decision is for Scots / Holyrood alone ultimately. About the same as the %Yes in 1997, and the same % which either supports independence or is not against it in principle (Panelbase).

      Not wanting a new iref right now (which has been the position of a lot of voters, at least until recently) is a very different position to happily accepting to have the democratic right to one taken from you against your will.

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    7. I'm pleased to hear that, when asked, most voters will say that in principle it's preferable for the decision to have a referendum to reside with Holyrood. But it doesn't follow that a violation of that principle will turn them into a "firm Yes" (or any type of Yes).

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    8. Great stats he's still not the president of Adf

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    9. I haven't quoted any stats.

      Obviously, I've never said he was president of the AfD (the German Party). You seem to be just making that up, if that's the implication. I said, I quote:

      Farage actually is president of the real German AfD in the EU parliament

      In the European Parliament he is President of the AfD and the others in the EFDD grouping. The AfD look to Farage to lead them in votes, devise strategy etc. Just as e.g. May is PM of the UK and Scotland, Farage is President of the EFDD and the AfD in the EU parliament.

      The far right ((c) BBC) are topping the polls in England.

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    10. I have plenty stat, in my nylon briefs.

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    11. Rumbustious RolypolyJune 4, 2019 at 10:39 PM

      You are fruity bitch. I like you. A lot.

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    12. Ooh matron!, I love your clam shells.

      Delete
  10. Mordecai SplitterJune 2, 2019 at 10:25 AM

    Croatia starting from 189 €

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    1. Kitty-MaryHimmlerJune 3, 2019 at 3:50 PM

      That's a bargain for a whole country.

      Delete
  11. The Tories made a really stupid mistake in 2017 thinking that the rise in support for them was due to their adoption of a hard line on indy.

    That was not the case at all, and why the hard line on indy saw their vote collapse in the recent EU election.

    The only got lent some votes in Scotland in 2017 because some brexit/iscexit voters saw them as a useful temporary means to achieve an EU exit. Now that the Tories have apparently blocked brexit and an iscexit, they're shedding votes north of the border.

    We have seen what trying to overrule democracy in England has done to Lab + Con. It will do the same thing here with iref2, especially if Scots see the old political order in England collapsing, replaced by the clear risk of a far right party in government. UKIP were the forerunner of this; Brexit is likely for real. Just as Lab + Con have fallen in Scotland as the empire collapse reaches climax, so they are falling in England too.

    Labour in Scotland will split and die if they don't stand up like Carwyn jones and back Holyrood's right to hold iref2.

    The Tories will be hurt too; continuing to lose brexiters and scexiters.

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    1. The Tories gained in 2017 as a brexit / scexit ticket. Labour got a dead cat bounce due to corbynmania and lingering perception that 'The only way to stop the Tories in a two horse race is to vote Labour' (it was a multi-horse race in 2015, hence the SNP did so well).

      It was nothing really to do with indy, which is why although the SNP share went down, Yes didn't budge. If anything, continued to slowly edge a little higher, heading for the 50/50 place we're in now, even though SNP share is still only low 40's for Westminster.

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    2. Has Charlene Tilton been told about all this?

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    3. Add in the fact that many indy supporters stayed at home and the SNPP actually did very well in 2017.

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    4. Yes, that's true too. As it was the first full English EVEL election where Scots voters were now second class / no longer able to elect members of the UK cabinet, turnout fell sharply in Scotland. This drop mainly affected 'Scottish' identifying voters who have a higher SNP vote propensity.

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  12. The UK should consider a political and trade alliance with the USA. Now is the time when Trump has power. I look forward to seeing the looney left liberals skipping work or failing to sign on to protest against Trump.

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    1. The US has made clear it will not do a trade deal with the UK unless N. Ireland stays in the single market / free movement zone as per the GFA.

      Trump doesn't have control of both houses, so even if he managed to persuade the powerful Irish republican lobby to scew their historic homeland, the democrats will still block any deal.

      The EU and USA would also bloc free trade with any country which did try to sign up with a UK not complying with the GFA in full.

      So, 'No backstop' literally means no deal with anyone, ever.

      So the choice is brexit + bye bye backstopped N. Ireland (and likely Scotland), or no brexit.

      Life's tough sometimes. You can't always get what you want.

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    2. True. The DUP are going to be the big losers. They'll get sold out by Westminster for a trade deal with America, meaning a customs border down the Irish sea. If they didn't hold the balance of power, it would already have happened for the EU deal.

      However, I can't see how a customs border down the Irish sea will change anything else. Opposing it is really just an ideological position by the DUP. It doesn't make NI any more or less likey to leave the UK, which ultimately would be bad for Scotland anyway as we'd get a substantial influx of "no" voting staunch Unionists leaving Ireland. We need to get out first.

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    3. If N. Ireland remains in the single market + free movement zone, Westminster ceases governing it for a whole host of areas, from trade to social / immigration policy. What exactly would be the purpose of DUP MPs? It's not as if they can vote on new UK trade deals and immigration policy.... these would be fully EU aligned in N. Ireland, so GBVGBL (GB votes for GB laws).

      The backstop means N. Ireland would become semi-independent / devo uber maxed and for many areas, more EU than British. At the same time, there's no border with the republic, but a hardish one with the UK, including for migration (N. Ireland must remain full EU free movement to abide by the GFA).

      So not reunification, but a massive step out of the UK and towards Ireland.

      If that happens, why can't Scotland do the same? If N. Ireland can be in the single market and UK, why not Scotland? Simple deep seated anti-Scottish hatred / racism from England? Must be that as there's no legal barriers to a Scottish backstop...

      It just all starts falling apart.

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    4. Becasue the EU are insiting on a backstop for NI - the 'English' don't want one. You need to ask why the EU are not asking for a Scotland backstop, obviously deep seated anti Scotish hatred from the EU.

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    6. No, it's because Scotland isn't independent, like Ireland (which is looking to get it's English occupied northern part back). If you are part of the UK, you get shat on by London and ignored by everyone else.

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    7. You can be absolutely sure if Scotland was a member and a brexiting rUK / England was trying to argue Dumfries and Galloway should be partitioned and leave the EU with it, that the 27 would be saying no chance to that.

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    8. so nothing to do with deep seated hatred on the UK part, just that the EU has no interest in Scotland. glad got that sorted out.

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    9. The backstop was England / Britain's idea. It offered the backstop to N. Ireland.

      Why not offer the same to Scotland, which likewise voted remain?

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    10. And even if the EU had zero interest in Scotland as a member, that should obviously make zero difference to whether Scotland should be independent. An indy Scotland could e.g. be in the EFTA. There's a fair % of indy voters saying 'No' to pollster who are waiting for October 31st so they can immediately vote for indy, hopefully outside the EU like Norway. It's a good part of the reason why Brexit stabs the union through the heart the moment it officially happens...

      That aside...I used to wonder why unionists thought Scotland couldn't be independent ('The EU will never be interested in you stupid Scots!'). It really puzzled me. Then, while watching brexit unfold, it finally hit me. Brit unionists are totally incompetent and unable to run a country. So they imagine this applies to everyone, including Scots.

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    11. They offered it because the EU wanted a solution the the issue of a border on Ireland. If the EU had not asked for a solution then it would not be offered. If the EU had said Scotland must remain in the SM/freedom of movement etc or no deal they would of offered the same for Scotland.

      you will have to ask the EU why they want a special 'deal' for 2 out of the 3 parts of the UK but not Scotland.

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    12. To be honest, it's pretty clear which country 'the EU isn't interested in'.

      It's both comical and sad watching prospective UK PMs talking about 're-negotiating the brexit deal'. It's like the kid in class who's gorgeous girlfriend 'does exist, but just goes to another school'.

      Trump apparently loves Boris though; that's something at least.

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    13. I could easily forgive the EU for not showing interest in Scotland. I mean Scots voted to be ruled by dickheads in the country next door; who the fuck would be impressed by that.

      Now if a few more Scots have the baws of Yes voters in 2014, joining all the other countries which have dumped Britain, then I imagine there'd be interest. You know, like how Ireland has it's mates standing right beside it.

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    14. Ireland is an inspiration. They've got the ear and respect of their fellow EU member States and even London has to give them grudging respect.
      How they hate that.
      Get ready for the annointment of Jo Swinson as the great white hope who can save the precious Union.
      Desperate times require desperate measures.
      Try no tae laugh.

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  13. Don't you mean that England is on course to elect a nasty Fascist Party to power.

    I cant wait for the hysteria that will follow the Fascistic Engexit Party winning the Peterborough Byelection. Maybe I should start practising my goose-stepping.

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    1. It's unfair there's only a general election in Peterborough. Why not other places? This stinks of a set up.

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    2. Well, the fascists are not guaranteed to win.

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    3. I have read a lot about 1930's Germany. Hitler's way to power and stuff. Hitler was lucky. And evil as fuck.

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    4. "Maybe I should start practising my goose-stepping."

      I'd have thought that that was a skill you had already perfected.

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    5. Hitler was very unlucky that Germany didn't use the British FPTP 'strong government' model. If so, he could have actually won a majority of MPs (which he never succeeded in doing) and took power years earlier.

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    6. You can be the sort of person who stands in the kitchen looking at fridge magnets. Or you can be like me - out there doing it.

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    7. Making fridge magnets is a major industry.

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    8. Yes, but I'm living a life. Living each day as if it's my last.

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  14. EU 'not interested' in the UK at all.

    https://www.ft.com/content/5e18bafa-8176-11e9-9935-ad75bb96c849

    Tusk says Brexit a ‘vaccine’ on continent against anti-EU parties

    Brussels insists the Brexit deal will not be renegotiated

    That's the one good thing that's come from brexit; it's shafted all the far right 'exit' parties across the EU. They're all Remainers now after watching what's going on in the UK.

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    1. The EU Commission is like the Roman Catholic Church. Dictatorial, murderous, ruthless and uncompromising. It would be good if both went into the dustbin of history however the Vatican will still be around when the EU collapses.

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    2. If they were refusing permission for the EU ref ('now is not the time') or refusing to recognise the result like the Brits/English and Scotland, I'd totally agree with you.

      Instead, they're waving the UK off happily into the sunset with a nice wee deal all agreed in good faith and on time. It's the pathetic brexiter cowards in England/Britain that just can't let go and are still staying in.

      Go on. Fuck off. Get out. Nobody cares. Just get the fuck out of the EU/EEA. This is tiresome and pathetic. What a joke of a country.

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  15. If Farage becomes PM, it will only be a matter of time until Ruth Davidson declares her support for him and joins the Brexit party.

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    1. There will be no need for a Brexit Party once we leave the EU just like there will be no need for a Scottish Nat si Party. They will all give up the money and power and stand for other parties. AYE

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    2. Jeremy WiddercombeJune 4, 2019 at 12:31 PM

      The UK isn't leaving the EU. This is all just a ploy to keep the Russians from invading China so we don't all have to run around wearing kimonos and singing "We are Siamese if you please"..

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  16. Doubt it, she's more likely to leave politics altogether

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    1. Marjory VansittardJune 4, 2019 at 8:11 AM

      She probably knows she's going nowhere in politics. Her future there is over. I predict a bright new future in the media for her, flogging tat on QVC.

      Delete
  17. Colonel Kezia FarageJune 4, 2019 at 2:49 PM

    I think she'll be rewarded with the post of Governor of the Falkland Islands or Tristan da Cunha.

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    1. Professor Monica TompkinsJune 4, 2019 at 5:07 PM

      Any advance on Pitcairn Island or South Georgia?

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    2. Bolfracks.

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  18. Trump doing more to put Labour voters of Brexit party / Brexit in a day than most domistic politicians could in a week...
    "support Brexit...end up with me running the NHS"

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    1. The NHS is always open to improvement. Millions are being spent on booze bags, results of increasing violence and druggies. I would prefer some tax relief than wasting my money on dropouts.

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    2. I'm guessing you mean increasing violence in England?

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48512477

      Glasgow drives huge fall in serious violent crime across Scotland

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    3. That is because there are not enough victims left to kill. The Glesga polis used tae beat a few skulls in and the problem was over. We now have EU lawyers and far too many Scottish politicians.

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    4. There's rather a nice Turkish red wine called Buzbag. Of course, I know what that meNs. Because I'm a sophisticated roué.

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  19. Skier, why not move the Scottish Parliament to Strasbourg once a year to show solidarity with the French wine growers. 129 jokes on the piss!

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    1. Why doesn't the UK parliament move to Edinburgh once a year?

      Or Cardiff, Belfast?

      Maybe even 'Cullodun'?

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    2. Hello, Cordelia, my precious.

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    3. Skier, you would have to remove the Knickerless ego out to create some space.

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  20. It is the end of the LBGT erse bandits and pansy potters running the UK. I support the family and not murdering children in the womb or the wobby. Throwing children into galvanised buckets should be a criminal offence. Education and condoms should be compulsory.

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