Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Remember that song about "when Nigel is in Number 10"...?

I was interviewed on Radio Sputnik yesterday (you can listen to the clip HERE), and I happened to hear the item that was on before me, which contained the startling suggestion that a No Deal Brexit won't come about because of pressure from the Brexit Party, but instead because the Brexit Party actually wins an election and forms a government.  Now I don't want to alarm anyone unduly, but consider the following...

* Even before the European elections, the Brexit Party was just one point off the outright lead in a poll of Westminster voting intentions.

* With the momentum from Sunday night's result, it's perfectly possible (and arguably highly likely) that polls will be published in the coming days showing the Brexit Party with a lead for Westminster.

* The Peterborough by-election is still to come, and looks like a shoo-in for the Brexit Party.  That'll be a sensational outcome in what should be a Labour-Tory marginal, and could be one of those iconic by-election results that decisively change the political weather (think Hamilton '67, Govan '73 or Darlington '83).

* Some snowball effects just keep rolling.  In 2015 it was unthinkable that Jeremy Corbyn was going to maintain his lead in the Labour leadership election...until it suddenly became apparent that he couldn't be caught.  In 2016 it was obvious that Donald Trump wouldn't really become the Republican nominee.  And then when he became the Republican nominee, it was equally obvious that he couldn't really defeat Hillary Clinton.  But he did.  The most improbable outcome of a presidential election in living memory actually happened, and we're all living with the consequences.

* You might think that if there was any danger at all of Farage reaching Number 10, a coalition of Remain voters and sane Leavers would turn out in droves to stop him, in much the same way that French voters backed "the crook not the fascist" when Chirac ended up in a run-off with Le Pen.  But the thing is that in a first-past-the-post election, you would actually need to know which party to coalesce around to stop the bad guy - and that call wouldn't necessarily be clear-cut.  At the moment it's not clear at all.

It's not all doom and gloom, though.  Farage as PM implementing a No Deal Brexit wouldn't just win soft Nos over to independence.  Even the hard Nos would start coming over in a torrent.

20 comments:

  1. Aye young James you must be in a desperate state turning to the Russians. You could ask them if they had rehabilitation for socialists who survived the Gulag. Maybe we Unionists need tae watch you Nat sis a bit more closely.

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    1. Yes, your problem is definitely that you're not obsessed enough.

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    2. Your problem is you have a problem with yourself.

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    3. Cordelia seems to have moved in full-time to your blog, James. You should charge her rent!

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  2. Jings Angus. I think we are being watched!

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    1. Gordie, dinnae worry you can chug away in the lavvie an naebody will notice.

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    4. Ha ha ha, we are being watched!

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  3. James, the noes, soft or hard, will never be won over. We must target the 30% who do not vote, half of whom came out in 2014 mostly for Indy. We must persuade the others to support Indy.

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    1. Jeez, the chances of getting a turnout any higher than 85% are pretty slim. Even if it did get any higher, there would be extra No voters in the mix as well.

      Nope, we're going to have to win over No voters to win. Not a huge percentage, but some.

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    2. Carlsberg don't do conspiracy theories...but if they did...

      I still struggle with the notion that 95%+ of over 75s voted. I am not sure it is a medical possibility let alone a political possibility. However, I have no evidence of ballot stuffing so it is just a case of sucking it up. I hope the current referendum legislation going through ensures the mechanics of future voting has the closest possible scrutiny. Fool us once shame on you and all that.

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    3. PS if Niggle becomes PM then I can only say that the populace that put him there will rue the the day. His reactionary right wing credentials are mostly concealed so as not to frighten the horses but give him power and he will wield the worst kind of populism with relish and I gave no doubt that he will bear grudges. Scotland will be one of those grudges.

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    4. Farage is no more right wing than the Capitalist Scottish Nat si party who have overseen foodbanks and more people living on the streets of Scotland. The blame Tories has long been exhausted.

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  4. Farage in No. 10 would be a natural progression of all the events leading up to now (stretching back decades).

    The fact fact that we now have a UK government which is openly racist to the point it will even remove the vote from non-English citizens (i.e. Scots), overturning democratic election results, shows you how far down the fascism route Britain has gone. Even Scots are 'sub-humans who don't have the right to vote / independence' now it would appear.

    So, aye, I'd put my money on Brexit soaring in the polls, with No 10 a real possibility. The Tories have proven insufficiently trustworthy in kicking the furriners, jocks, paddies, cafflics, muslims etc.

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  5. How about a challenge to get 16 to 35 year olds at 95%.

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  6. James, tell me how you can win me over to the Nat si dark side.

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  7. Rumours that YouGov poll has LD 24%, BXP 22%, Lab 19%, Con 19%.

    Obviously should not take a post election poll in isolation, but if the trend continues and Corbyn continues to be less than enthusiastic towards a second ref can see a leadership contest. People are not going to sit on their hands in Labour whilst they haemorrhage 10-15% of their base to the Lib Dems.

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    1. Westminster voting intention:

      LDem: 24% (+6)
      Brex: 22% (+4)
      Con: 19% (-5)
      Lab: 19% (-5)
      Grn: 8% (+2)

      via @YouGov
      Chgs. w/ 17 May

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