Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Could Ruth Davidson be facing an ABRUPT END to her political career? SHOCK YouGov research puts the Scottish Tories in SIXTH PLACE for the Euro elections

Every day seems to bring word of a poll showing even more progress for the Brexit Party, and the latest from YouGov is no exception.

Britain-wide voting intentions for Westminster (YouGov):

Conservatives 24% (-5)
Labour 24% (-5)
Brexit Party 18% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+3)
Greens 7% (+2)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 5% (+1)
Change UK 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (n/c)

Scottish subsample: SNP 41%, Labour 15%, Conservatives 14%, Brexit Party 12%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Greens 5%, UKIP 1%, Change UK 1%

Britain-wide voting intentions for European Parliament (YouGov):

Brexit Party 34% (+4)
Labour 16% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 15% (+5)
Greens 11% (+2)
Conservatives 10% (-3)
Change UK 5% (-4)
SNP 3% (n/a)
UKIP 3% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (n/a)

Scottish subsample: SNP 38%, Brexit Party 21%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Labour 10%, Greens 9%, Conservatives 6%, Change UK 2%

To say that public opinion is fast-moving at the moment would be the understatement of the century.  It seems like no time at all ago that we thought the hardline Brexit vote would be split down the middle between the Brexit Party and UKIP, and that the hardline Remain/anti-independence vote would be split between the Lib Dems and Change UK, perhaps meaning that all four parties might miss out on a European Parliament seat in Scotland.  But the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems seem to have decisively won the side-battles against their ideological cousins, which turns our expectations for the Euro seat allocation upside down.  If by any chance the YouGov subsample is completely accurate, the six Scottish seats would be distributed as follows: SNP 3, Brexit Party 2, Liberal Democrats 1.  There would be no Labour or Tory representation at all - the first time in history that Scottish Labour would have been wiped out in the European Parliament.

Although the Tories slumping to a scarcely believable fifth place across Britain is the most eye-catching aspect of the poll, the Scottish Tories' 6% share in the Euro subsample is also worthy of note.  Will the myth of Ruth ever recover?

As far as the Westminster figures are concerned, this wouldn't be the first time in recent decades that we've seen weird numbers that amounted to nothing when an election came around - remember the SDP surge, or the Cleggasm, or the temporary lead for William Hague during the fuel crisis of 2000.  But I do wonder if this time could be different, particularly if Britain hasn't yet left the European Union by the day of the election and if Brexit passions are still running high.  Almost anything could happen.  I talked the other day about the nightmare scenario of Nigel Farage ending up as Prime Minister, but we shouldn't overlook the lesser-but-somehow-equal nightmare of Jo Swinson walking through the doors of Number 10.  The Lib Dems' 16% share, which looks thoroughly unimpressive compared to the achievements of Charles Kennedy, is nevertheless enough to put them just eight points off the outright lead.

40 comments:

  1. Someone I've had umpteen ding-dongs with about independence on a forum announced that he's just voted SNP in the Euro elections. He was a totally hard-line unionist who didn't have a single good word for the party until very recently.

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    1. Yesterday when I was in Dunkeld I happen to pass two having a discussion about the Euro elections, one saying he was voting SNP to stop Farage. Perhaps there is a backlash awaiting up and down these isles.

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    2. Anecdotal nonsense, SNP on 38% in the sub-sample, hardly conversion on a grand scale.

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    3. An optimistic eavesdropping on tittle tattle in Dunkeld. Laughable piffle if tragically self-deluding. I think we all accept that we are leaving the EU as a United Kingdom and one old duffer in the Highlands and Islands is hardly a landslide.

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  2. Never mind Ruth. What an utterly bizarre outcome it'd be if the Brexit party becomes Scotland's second party, however temporary. That's their aim here, to make Scotland look more accepting of Brexit.

    I just did a quick D'hondt calculation and it looks like Brexit stands a good chance of winning two seats(2nd and 5th or 6th). Despite 21% of the vote, they can spin that as "33% of Scottish seats".

    The last two seats will be narrowly fought over by SNP, Brexit, Greens, Lib Dems and Labour.

    Silver lining is, it's theoretically possible for the SNP to win three seats and Greens one. So none of that tactical voting rubbish, just go and vote!

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    1. It's perfectly possible for the SNP to win four - they're not far off on those figures. But three would be a breakthrough and an all-time high.

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    2. 100-33 = 67 = '7/10 Remain' = Leave going backwards on 2016.

      And anyway, it's a subsample. Brexit are are on 10-12% in Scottish polls, including from Yougov.

      I imagine our current, formerly Skipper MEP, has a chance of being replaced by a brexiter, but even 20% of the vote would be shite; it's 80% against.

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    3. This is no time for complacency. IF the Brexit party comes second with two seats, it will be spun faster than the speed of light as Scotland being willing to go along with Brexit, however utterly nonsensical that would be on a 20% vote.

      They might even do that anyway if Brexit comes second and only gets one seat. It's much less convincing than the above scenario, though.

      Either way, it's time to start looking closely at the Brexit Party's top two Scottish candidates - Louis Stedman-Bruce and Karina Walker.

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    4. It's really Bryce. Not sure who made the mistake.

      https://www.scotsman.com/business/companies/home-care-venture-debuts-focused-on-central-scotland-and-aiming-to-generate-100-jobs-1-4907785
      "Two Scottish-based health and social care entrepreneurs are hoping to create 100 jobs after launching a service that will cash in on Scotland’s ageing population.

      Married couple Gavin and Louis Stedman-Bryce have pressed the button on Kairos Home Health, a round-the-clock service designed to offer a “real alternative” to care homes and help those who wish to remain in their own property for as long as possible. The service will provide adults with health and social care needs with a carer who lives alongside them in their own home."

      https://www.192.com/people/search/
      gives two main possibilities for Karina Walker with one in Hamilton. Google is even more uncertain. One is based in London.

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  3. "But I do wonder if this time could be different, particularly if Britain hasn't yet left the European Union by the day of the election"

    If? Does anyone think there's any chance of that at all? The elections are next week.

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    1. No, they're not. The paragraph you're quoting from starts with the words "As far as the Westminster figures are concerned..."

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    2. "My bad", said 7 year old.

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  4. TWO for Farage? Just when I was looking forward to seeing the back of UKIP in Scotland :(

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    1. For the moment, full Scottish polls have him on 1 seat. Would be the same as last time with Coburn sneaking in.

      Either way, 2 out of 6 seats for brexit MEPs would be going backwards on 38% leave in 2016. They need 3 to claim the leave vote has increased.

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    2. *to claim truthfully

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    3. The big issue is turnout. Brexiteers tend to be elderly, and the old are stick-ons to vote. In 2017 the SNP lost votes to apathy, will the same happen again in 2019?

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    4. I wonder if Margaret "Stairheid" Curran will be cheering for UKIP this time or will she favour the Faragists with her support.

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  5. I am hoping for four SNPs, or three SNPs plus one Green, basically a remain + indy majority. Doesn't look likely though on current polling.

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  6. Even if some form of brexit is delivered before the westminster elections, I do not think it will be enough to save the blue torys.
    Anything less than a no deal brexit can be portrayed as a brexit in name only, a brexit betrail, repeated ad nauseam by mr farage on every platform he can access.
    UKIP managed to scare the torys enough to poach 2 mps in 2014, how many more could a brexit party polling in the high teens encourage to jump ship just to save their seats?

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  7. Three seats is a realistic goal. If the SNP can edge a 4th seat that would be unprecedented. Who picks up the other seats is what is really interesting. If the Tories and Labour do fail to get any seats there will be serious questions the BBC will fail ask.

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  8. Ruth will pull us back from the brink. She's done it before and she'll do it again.

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    Replies
    1. Compost heepie, needs burlin.

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    2. In English comprehensible to adults, please. Thank you.

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  9. It's going to get interesting if the Mail punt for the Greens fails to draw support away from the SNP but from disaffected Labour or even tactically minded supporters instead.

    If by some miracle the bar is raised above 10.5 the Brexit Party will only get 1 seat, Lib Dems 1, Greens 1, and SNP 3 . However if there's more than a couple of a percent drift from the SNP then that Green seat will be at the expense of the SNP.

    IF the deeper intent is to make it unlikely that 2 seats will head to the Brexit Party then perhaps the how is some of those votes will drift towards the Conservatives.

    So the plan, persuade SNP voters, but hopefully not Labour or Lib Dem, to vote Green. Show Green support now gives a probable SNP 3, Brexit 1, LD 1 , Green 1 result. Convince enough potential Brexit voters to opt "tactically" for Conservatives instead. Final result SNP 2, Brexit 1, LD 1, Green 1, Conservative 1.

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  10. Ifs and buts and poll only a sample for that day not for tomorrow. It is to be a surprise for us all and I hope a shock to some a pleasant surprise for the SNP just so we can watch the shit flow from Westminster, just for fun no hurt intended OK that might be a wee white lie.

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  11. French Mrs SS just voted SNP (postal), so cancelling out GWC's vote.

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    1. I would ban frogs from voting in the UK the exception being Heugonots.

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    2. Avenida de las LimastreasasMay 14, 2019 at 4:21 PM

      Who are the Hingoots?

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    3. Ma flozzie Cordelia will hingoot with any Nat si supporter. She has gunner ea.

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    4. JoLa and StairheidMay 15, 2019 at 11:04 PM

      Cordelia is hinging oot already. Too much action. Too many visitors.

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  12. It appears that strongly pro-EU voters have decided to Remain with their traditional party whereas fervently anti-EU voters have decided to Leave theirs

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  13. Naw, tae thoan 'Buffalo Rider'.

    Guid nummurrs, bit.

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    1. In English comprehensible to adults, please. Thank you.

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  14. A freed o mine wha has votit nothing but Labour aw her life has juist switched tae SNP.
    A straw in the wind mibbe, and her statement that scotland needs its independence makes me think many other Scots are aboot tae cross the rubicon.
    Aye, interesting times right enough.

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    1. I refer you to my above comment.

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    2. And I refer you to a bucket of tripe.

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