Saturday, March 9, 2019

The SNP may now be close to assured of winning the next Westminster general election in Scotland

I know it's almost a waste of breath to complain when newspapers run misleading headlines about opinion polls, but it has to be said that the Herald's choice of "Poll blow for Yes movement" (in relation to the new Panelbase poll) is particularly eccentric when self-evidently the big story is the slump in the Labour vote.  At worst, the poll can be described as a curate's egg for independence supporters, because the Holyrood numbers are so-so, and the Westminster numbers are highly encouraging.  Yes, the SNP remain stuck on the 37% of the Westminster vote they received in 2017, but in a first-past-the-post election all that matters is the gap between the leading party and its opponents, and the SNP's lead over both the Tories and Labour has increased over the last two years.  Seat projections based on polls need to be taken with a heavy dose of salt, but for what it's worth this is what would happen on a uniform swing...

Westminster seats projection from Panelbase poll:

SNP: 41 seats (+6)
Conservatives: 12 seats (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 5 seats (+1)
Labour: 1 seat (-6)

On what planet is that a blow for the Yes movement?  If the SNP winning more than two-thirds of Scottish seats in the House of Commons is bad news, I can't wait to see what a good poll would look like.  Indeed, this may confirm that Scottish politics has quietly crossed a Rubicon over recent weeks.  If you remember, in the aftermath of the general election there was considerable concern that the momentum behind Labour could result in the SNP being replaced as the leading party in Scotland - and we knew that only Labour could ever achieve that, because there is still a natural ceiling on Tory support.  It now looks like the fallout from the Independent Group breakaway may have finally killed any lingering chance of Labour overtaking the SNP in the foreseeable future, and that an SNP victory at the next Westminster election is close to being assured - with the only real question mark being over the scale of the triumph.  There's always an outside chance of another twist in the tale, but at the moment it looks like 'success' for Labour would just mean holding what they have.

As far as Holyrood is concerned, SNP support is holding steady at a creditable 41% of the constituency vote.  It's true that there's been a two point drop in the SNP's list vote, but given that there's no change in the party's popularity on other ballots, that could well be just a random polling fluctuation that doesn't really signify anything.  The seats projection puts the combined pro-independence forces four seats short of an overall majority, but that's been the story of the majority of recent polls and isn't especially newsworthy in itself.  In any case, the last three Holyrood elections have all produced results that bore little resemblance to pre-campaign polls.  In 2007, the SNP started with a substantial lead that was whittled away to almost even-stevens by polling day, probably due to cold feet over putting a pro-indy party into power for the first time ever.  In 2011, a huge Labour lead evaporated at astonishing speed and the SNP ended up with an overall majority - probably largely due to the fact that nobody could imagine Iain Gray as First Minister, while Alex Salmond seemed made for the role.  And in 2016, wildly implausible pre-campaign numbers for the SNP (which led to irresponsible claims from some quarters that SNP supporters didn't need to vote for their own party on the list ballot) came back down to earth with seeming inexorability.

For my money, it's the leadership factor that could once again be the game-changer in the next Holyrood campaign.  Richard Leonard may well look totally out of his depth against Nicola Sturgeon and Ruth Davidson in the TV leaders' debates, which could lead to a further substantial squeeze in Labour support.  And it could be that all we'd need to maintain the pro-indy majority in the Scottish Parliament is for a reasonable percentage of Yes-supporting Labour voters to migrate to the SNP.

36 comments:

  1. Did I miss a campaign starting...?

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    1. Alfie the Miner far LarkhallMarch 9, 2019 at 10:41 AM

      Looks like you've missed more than a campaign. Back to sleep, Noddy nat.

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    2. Denzel Washington. Who do you think?

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  2. There has been a bit of a push in anti independence type stories in the media in the past ten days or so. The visit of Mr Jeremy Hunt to Glasgow University was covered in one oft-repeated line _'Of course we will refuse a second referendum" In the reports of the simultaneous debates in the Scottish Parliament and in the Welsh Assembly the Tories claiming it was 'a stunt' was emphasised repeatedly. Indeed, in one set of headlines, the Tory claim preceded the announcement that there had been debates. The metropolitan media, managed to miss these debates,

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    1. Yes. And this all happened as the EU announced they are keeping their office in Edinburgh open. And Ledlry Ridfoch podcast speculated on EU and efta courting Scotland.

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    2. You need to start listening to people like ne .We know a lot if important things and facts. I'll be letting you know some of them soon but you need to watch out for me and lusrdbti I say

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    3. What a tantrum.
      "Pay attention to me! Waaaah!"

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    4. I say as I see

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    5. Sadly, most of what Cordelia says is ultra-right-wing gibberish.

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  3. Good blogg with good news guess for whom?

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  4. Did my eyes mislead me? I saw from Farq's twatter feed that Dickhead Yorkshireman praised the influence of the Fabians on his beloved labour party.

    The Fabians actively promoted and campaigned for the poor and disabled to be sterilised. The Fabians wanted to stop the lower orders from breeding and supplanting their superiors.

    The Fabians were actual NAZIs before the NAZIs were invented. But he's proud of their influence. What a lovely man.

    And why do none of our beloved free and impartial truth-tellers ever ask anybody from labour why they have such close ties to eugenicists?

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    1. How could you be a NAZI before they were invented! Your genetics seem to have survived the eugenicists. More to pity than scolded.

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    2. Jabney ThrustpoleMarch 9, 2019 at 11:30 PM

      Like a pretty tulip bending it's modest head as if to say Do not rebuke me, fair gentleman. I am but the servant of a fine family. And so the evening fell and darkened as the storm clouds lowered over Utrecht. The tulip felt a hush descend upon the city and dreaded the impending fury. 'Splendid Lord. I await your command.'

      The command never came.

      From Lord Alfred Mertens of Delft.

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    3. Gare, the Brazilian terror squad is hardly a thing I'd be boasting about. Were hearing all this stuff about Clara Zetkin and how we should all follow her example. Fact Check - Clara Zetkin s mother wanted her to be a famous chicaoate maker, the first famous female one in Europe but Little Miss Biddy Boots Zetkin stamped her feet and said No. I'm going to destroy people's lives in stead. What an I'll mannered little shut. And you want us to come toe to her! Don't be ridiculous.

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  5. Interesting to see that infamous embezzler of pension funds N W L is back under a new fake account. Still telling the same lies about pensions though.

    Still waving his little bit of paper claiming that it proves the UK Government isn't responsible for paying UK State Pensions.

    One wonders why our fearless journalists keep failing to expose this lie? Have they not noticed the truth or are they under orders to scare vulnerable elderly voters?

    A more evil gang of scum there does not exist in this country than english Ally cameron and his paedo posse.

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    1. Sober up drama queen

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    2. I promise to help my fellow Scattish. I will construct more golf courses and provide clorenated chicken to eat with your Buckfast.

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    3. Poor Cordelia and its boozy late-night rages.

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    4. Shut your trap. Mr Pookue Pants

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    5. Poor Cordelia and its incoherent boozy late-night rages. It needs help.

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  6. Currently in val d'isere. Not my first choice as popular with brits, but last minute.

    Why do so many brits go on holiday, get obnoxiously pished, and don't even bother to learn to say please or thank you in the local language?

    That aside, I see the snp will formally seek a section 30 the moment it is confirmed brexit is going ahead. Thank god for that.

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    1. Snooty Tartan Tory moneybags. Nat si anti working man pince going skiing. Loads of other nat sis there sitting in Igloos counting there pounds. Stirling.

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    2. Sadly not. The amendment is nothing more than a statement that Scotland should be able to make its own decisions. It does not ask for a section 30.

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    3. In actual fact its aload of bollocks. The last sentence kills it.
      "Believes that the best future for Scotland lies...a full equal sovereign independent Member State of the EU"

      Clearly the UK Parliament can't do anything about Scotland being in the EU or not. This was not what was promised over the weekend. Even if it passed it means nothing, no section 30 order arises from this amendment.

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  7. Seems there is now a natural majorty for indy; at least if brexit goes ahead. Partly brexit, partly the long term decline of unionism in Scotland.

    I can appreciate why 'now is not the time'. But the people spoke in 2016.

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    1. The Scattish will go with its natural Allies the USA, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. The fascist EU will be confined to the dustbin of history.

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    2. Donald T,

      I doubt you are correct. I'd see us as a member of the EU with decent links to Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Indeed, if the EU want's to go global, they would, probably, be pretty well welcome. I doubt Scotland, as an EU member state, would be anything other than welcoming. After all, the most currently fascist state would have already left.

      Y'know, England

      Donald Trump and Theresa May, a marraige made in hell.

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    3. A marriage made in a cutlery factory. In Sheffield. Tweet tweet.

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    4. Poor Cordelia. It stayed up all night swilling Domestos to retch up that puddle of wisdom.

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    5. Wee Hecky the BrickieMarch 13, 2019 at 12:33 AM

      Says anonymous Master Bates. Staying up till 6 in the morning getting boozed up and fantasying about Cordelia. There is no CirdeluC. Drop it. It's a boring load of pketch.

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    6. The Domestos appears to heve rotted Cordelia's brain to the point where it can't tell AM from PM.
      Poor broken Cordelia doesn't like being called Cordelia. We'll need to remember that.

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  8. Brexit Brexit we're getting a no deal Brexit.

    Hip hip hurrah.

    Brexit Brexit we're getting a no deal Brexit.

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    1. Six months from now, Cordelia's getting assigned to tattie howking by its Tory overlords in exchange for its pension.
      Hip hip hurrah.

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