Monday, October 8, 2018

Survation sensation as new poll puts SNP on course for OVERALL MAJORITY in the Scottish Parliament

My apologies - I'm really playing catch-up with this latest Survation poll.  I've been away on a long weekend in the Highlands which has just been extended for another night because of bad weather, but I'll get home and post some proper analysis eventually!  In the meantime, here are the voting intention numbers for Westminster and Holyrood.  It's intriguing that this poll was commissioned by the SNP and that they've elected to publish the results in full, because as you can see they're a bit of a curate's egg affair.  The last Survation poll back in the summer was conducted by online panel and this one was conducted by telephone, so a meaningful comparison isn't possible, but I've added in the percentage changes from one to the other in italics for the sheer hell of it, as it's the only comparison available.  On that basis the new results are perhaps a bit disappointing in Westminster terms (although even on these numbers the SNP would be gaining seats), static on the Holyrood constituency vote (albeit static from an outstandingly good position) and mind-bogglingly wonderful on the Holyrood list vote.  But if you think the direction of travel on the list is a bit too good to be true, you're probably correct - if it's not an illusion caused by the switch to telephone fieldwork, it looks like it may have been an illusion caused by other methodological differences.

Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:

SNP 37% (-5)
Conservatives 28% (+4)
Labour 26% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions:

SNP 44% (n/c)
Conservatives 24% (n/c)
Labour 23% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:

SNP 40% (+7)
Conservatives 25% (+6)
Labour 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)
Greens 4% (-7)

Other than polling by telephone, Survation have done two things differently that could have contributed to the huge changes on the list vote - they haven't offered UKIP as a specific option this time (thus presumably boosting the Tories) and they haven't referred to the list vote as a "second" vote, which may have helped to bring about an astonishing 7% 'swing' from Green to SNP.   Of course it may just be that telephone respondents are far less into the Greens than online respondents are, but nevertheless it's startling to ponder the possibility that the deletion of a single word might have had a rather big effect.  It obviously raises the question of whether the cause of the SNP's suspiciously poor showings on the list in recent online Survation polls was that many SNP voters were misled into thinking they were being asked for a second preference vote, and were thus plumping for the Greens.

As noted above, the Westminster figures are underwhelming but OK to be getting on with.  The SNP have been as low as 37% in a post-election Survation poll before, and their 42% in the last Survation poll was unusually high, so there's no reason to jump to the conclusion that telephone polls will always show a lower SNP vote for Westminster.  When rounded to one decimal place, the figure is 37.4%, which is still a touch higher than the 36.9% achieved in June 2017.  The SNP's lead over both the Tories and Labour is also slightly higher than it was last year, which is why they remain (just about) on course to gain seats at Westminster rather than to lose them.

As far as Holyrood is concerned, it's been rare in recent times for any opinion poll to point to a pro-independence parliamentary majority, let alone an outright SNP majority.  But arguably, on these figures, the SNP would just about make it over the line on their own.  And that might just be (at least partly) because of the omission of that rogue word 'second'.  Never let it be said that misinformation about how the voting system works doesn't matter, or shouldn't be called out.

UPDATE: Please see Calum's comment below for important information that I'd overlooked (which contradicts some of the above).

36 comments:

  1. There is some confusion here, I saw different figures for the Survation polls on Twitter and when I checked the website today, I saw that there is in fact two Survation surveys. One is online and was carried out 28th September to 2nd October (https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Sunday-Post-Final-Tables-.pdf), and the second is telephone carried out 3rd - 5th October (https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/SNP-final-tables.pdf).

    This gives us a rare opportunity to compare results from the same company conducted around the same time but using different methods.

    The telephone poll has Yes: 46% and online poll Yes: 47%, so not much difference there, although the 46% in the telephone poll is very heartening indeed considering the pre-election poll last year that had Yes on less than 40%!

    The online poll has Westminster voting intentions as SNP: 41%, Con: 26% and Lab: 24%, while the telephone one is SNP: 37% Con: 28% Lab: 26%, This is an interesting difference, and the lower SNP score could reflect either methodological differences or maybe higher publicity for the Labour vs Conservative narrative around the time of their conferences?

    For Holyrood const, online has SNP: 43%, Con: 24%, Lab: 23% and telephone has SNP: 44%, Con: 24% Lab: 23%, so pretty much no difference there from one another (it's reassuring to see the SNP doing so well both online and by telephone). The Regional list telephone has SNP: 40%, Con: 25% and Lab: 22%, Green: 4% as you said, and the online poll uses the standard "second vote" question so has the more typical SNP: 32%, Lab: 23%, Con: 21% and Green: 10% and UKIP: 5%.

    So yes, ti conclude, all in all there is little difference between the telephone and online polls for independence or Holyrood taking into account the different Regional question. The only difference is Westminster voting intention, which could due to online respondents being more likely to vote SNP for Westminster, or perhaps a temporary dip due to media coverage of the other parties.

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    1. OK, I had no idea there were two polls, but in fairness to myself it is indeed very confusing and I'm on a dodgy wifi connection! You've explained the position very clearly and comprehensively, so I'll update the post to direct people to your comment.

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its desperate need to stay up through the night to post gibberish.

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  2. The SNP will struggle for the English parliament - just as the Lib Dems or UKIP do in England - as long as the public perceive it's a two horse race between the Tories and Labour.


    It's nothing really to do with independence. After all, it's for the English parliament, not our own parliament (the one that will lead Scotland to indy). It's simply about trying to take the edge of which shade of shit is about to whack us in the face while we are still stuck in the union. However, if it looks like a hung parliament down south due to UKIP or the Lib dems, then Scots think it's worth a shot at SNP without risking handing e.g. the Tories a majority (or Diane Abbot).

    Of course 2014 has also now created a larger 'hardcore' SNP vote who'll never vote unionist now, hence SNP are pretty much always going to win English elections in Scotland going forward, with common 'landslide' 6/10+ MP wins. Hardcore was about 20% before + 10% willing (polls) but invariably voteing tactical (result) to stop the Tories. It's now 36% or so hardcore with 14% tactical, ergo the unionist are f'd for their own favourite elections 'forever'.

    Of course if we are still here at the next English election and e.g. UKIP or the Libs are resurgent, 50% SNP is perfectly possible again.

    The glorious irony of this future of unionist defeat after defeat is that the unionists adore English GE's, yet they'll keep losing them, while nationaists don't want to be sending anyone to Westminster, but will keep winning these.

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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its sneaky posts after ten days when it thinks we're not paying attention.
      Fool.

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  3. As an aside, if you want to predict the future of the UK, English polling will tell you the lottery numbers:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1049344772077498368
    @faisalislam
    14 hours ago
    extraordinary @CCC_Research polling findings about the tradeoffs from Leave voters, and Tory voters in particular in tolerating Scottish independence (79%/ 86%) and the collapse of the NI peace process (75%/ 87%) “as the price of Brexit”...


    Don't assume 'now is not the time' and the 'festival of brexit britain' is soley directed at the celtic periphery. May can feel England awakening beneath her feet. After all, N. Ireland is the biggest barrier to English indy (aka brexit) right now, with Scotland in second place. Dump these and the whole Irish border problem goes away, while the Tories gain a mother of a majority in England. Of course that would mean the end of Britain and it's 'global standing', with a big economic hit to boot. However, many English right wingers truly believe they pay for the jock / mick largesse, so see it as no loss.

    This is why Scotland and Ireland need to throw every tool in the box into the brexit works (and not necessarily rush to risky irefs). Derail, delay, block, go to court on every matter possible... At some point, England will walk led by the English nationalists while the brits look on in horror. In that case, no need for iref#2/3/4; indy by default.

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    1. Indy by default will never be allowed to happen. Colony by default is what would actually happen Scottish Skier. 49% of English Tories already believe Scots should not be part of a 'British' Westminster Cabinet (and 24% of Scots Tories agree!)

      This is not Czechoslovakia. UK and its ruling class are more than happy to live with democratic division/deficits within the UK, as long as it allows their enforcement of geographic unity and continued access to Scotland's finances.

      After all, it is the soothing return to a default empire mindset that is the overall attraction to them of Brexit... no matter how delusional that return to default may appear to non imperialists.

      Indy will NOT be handed to anyone when the international status implications and financial stakes are so high for the UK and its establishment. Indy is NOT inevitable and it helps no one to pretend that it is. It is however very achievable through an Indy referendum held in the near future, but we all NEED to fight for it!
      braco

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    2. Scottish Skier: 'Derail, delay, block, go to court on every matter possible... At some point, England will walk led by the English nationalists while the brits look on in horror.'

      I have seen no sign of any of this action from the SNP to date apart from the single walkout (not that I wouldn't welcome much more of it of course).
      braco

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    3. The coming court cases over legislative consent for law changes post brexit are case in point. As it stands, the UK government does not clearly have full legislative capacity for the whole of UK in a raft of areas. This weakens its hand severely in trade negotiations, including those with the EU (not really started yet). It doesn't matter if they say 'We'll just overrule the Scottish parliament', trade partners want to see they have the full authority for this, as proven in the courts. That and of course the threat of indpendence - which would increase in the even the Scottish parliament is overruled / devo reversed - likewise weakens the hand in any trade deals.


      Scotland and northern Ireland are massive problems for a brexited England in union with them. Wales somewhat too. At the moment, N. Ireland is the main barrier to the basic exit deal. When it comes to new trade deals, Scotland really becomes a headache, as do both N. Ireland and Wales. Devo was never designed to accomodate this outcome and the constitutional crisis in the courts is just warming up.

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    4. Only a problem until the UK courts rule on behalf of the UK. Power devolved is power retained etc. etc.

      The Union is changing and the way it is changing is to simply deny the logic of devolution and democracy. A year ago it was impossible for Ruth Davidson to support the refusal of a majority Parliamentary vote for IndyRef2. Not now...

      Do not underestimate just how uninterested in Scottish politics the 'British' electorate really are. It is this disinterest that allows democratic outrages within the rest of the UK nations to go unquestioned. NI is without a government because the UK needs the DUP to form a UK Government! DUP has effectively been able to stop devolution in NI without a peep from the rest of the country... (just as an example of how democratic outrages are simply normalised and ignored within the UK system)

      Pinning hopes on a UK court ruling is not a wise route to Indy.

      braco

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    5. Why call yourself Anonymous then write " bravo" at the end? You shit faced prick from hell.

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    6. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its pathetic screams of impotent rage.
      Keep making it cry, folks.

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    7. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its feeble sobs of impotent rage.
      Keep making it cry, folks.

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  4. The difference between the two figures for the list really highlights how important it is going to be to have an effective pro independence on the list strategy and avoid thousands upon thousands of wasted votes again.

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  5. "The difference between the two figures for the list really highlights how important it is going to be to have an effective pro independence on the list strategy and avoid thousands upon thousands of wasted votes again."
    Hence it is absolutely key that SNP voters vote for the SNP candidate on the constituency vote and use their regional list vote to vote for the Green candidate. Virtually guaranteeing a pro indy majority.

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    1. Better get your tin hat on Callum, cause that kind of talk on Scot Goes POP is likely to start a chain reaction explosion by the end of this thread :)

      I do agree though. Pro Indy Majority is all I care about!
      braco

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    2. Well, that would be splendid if it wasn't for one minor problem - your wizard idea won't actually work. Voting "tactically" on the list is just as likely to cost us the pro-independence majority, for reasons that have been patiently explained to you at least eighty-nine billion times.

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    3. You bleeding crank

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    4. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries

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    5. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its unabashed homophobia.
      It needs professional help.

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  6. Sorry Callum, I don't think many will be fooled again with voting Greens as 'second' vote!

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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries

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  7. I've got a nitchy fanny. Come and give me a scratch, Murdo.
    Luv ya, Ruthie Rape

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  8. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

    ReplyDelete
  9. You're fannyFaa a bit whiffy. Give yourself a scrub out with domestos. You dirty minger.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the manky shirt brigade

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    2. Country an Western. Alone a dog lay dying at the close inG of the day.

      That's poetry you fuck*ING slag.

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    3. Baroness_Nichol AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the manky shirt auxiliaries.
      Its impotent rage is causing it insomnia. That explains a great deal.

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    4. We all call you Mrs Poncey Pinkfanny. Every body is lyahging at you. No wonder .Your mentally ill.

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    5. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its desperate need for human contact.

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    6. STOP CALLING ME FUCK*ING CORDELIA.

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    7. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its howls of rage.
      Poor Cordelia.

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    8. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its incoherent late-night ravings

      Delete
    9. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries with its bizarre and tortured religious-political-psychosexual fixations.
      Poor Cordelia.
      It's so desperately needy.
      It's so funny.

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    10. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries.
      So needy.
      So funny.

      Delete