Friday, July 20, 2018

Yes vote stands at 46% in Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls

It's been ages since I last calculated a polling average on independence, so I thought it might be time to give it a spin.  For those who don't remember, the Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls takes into account only the most recent poll from each firm that has asked the independence question at some point in the last six months.  Back during the indyref, I had an exchange with a pollster (I think it was someone from Ipsos-Mori) who was insistent that my method didn't make sense, and that a Poll of Polls should take into account all of the most recent handful of polls regardless of which firms had conducted them.  I pointed out to him that the 'house effects' in indyref polls were so extreme that his preferred method would generate crazily misleading trends - if you went from one average that was mostly based on polls from No-friendly firms (such as YouGov) to another average that was mostly based on polls from Yes-friendly firms (such as Panelbase), you'd get the firm impression there had been a sharp swing to Yes even if no such thing had actually happened.

The gap between pollsters is no longer as extreme these days, but there are still differences.  Panelbase has moved to the other end of the spectrum and is now a No-friendly pollster, usually reporting a Yes vote that is a little lower than one or two other firms such as Survation.  Needless to say YouGov remain a firmly No-friendly outfit, and as you know I've always been a bit cynical about them.  It's hard to escape the conclusion sometimes that they start from the assumption that the Yes vote should be on the low side and work backwards to find a methodology that will produce that outcome.  During the indyref, when they were still under the control of Labour supporter Peter Kellner, they used the notorious "Kellner Correction" to split SNP voters into two distinct categories and weight them separately, which magically produced figures that were much more No-friendly than other online firms - until the closing weeks of the campaign, when the small SNP group that they were artificially upweighting showed an enormous swing to Yes.  That was why Damian Lyons-Lowe of Survation argued on the evening of September 18th that the campaign had not had much impact on voting intentions, while Peter Kellner standing right next to him was equally insistent that the swing during the campaign had been dramatic.  It's impossible to know who was right, although I do suspect that if YouGov had been picking up a pro-Yes swing several months before polling day rather than a couple of weeks before, they might have changed their methodology again to make that swing look less significant.  Not because they were consciously trying to 'rig' anything, but because Kellner was bringing unionist preconceptions to the table and was much more likely to search for reasons why Yes was being overestimated, rather than the reverse.

Anyway, for today's update of the Poll of Polls, four polls are taken into account: very recent polls from Panelbase and Survation, a poll from YouGov that was conducted in early June, and a poll from Ipsos-Mori that was conducted in early March.  Obviously March is quite a while ago now, but that probably doesn't make too much difference - polling numbers on independence have been relatively stable of late.

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46.0%
No 54.0%

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If you haven't seen it yet, here is the second edition of Phantom Power's groundbreaking Nation documentary series starring Lesley Riddoch.  This time the focus is on Iceland.  Incidentally, did you know that more people speak Welsh than Icelandic?  And yet try telling the people of Iceland that their national language is "useless" and that they should just get on with speaking English like normal people do...


63 comments:

  1. I don't think there's really any single right or wrong answer with trying to aggregate polls like this - there's umpteen different ways to do it and they'll probably all tell you something slightly different (both in terms of sheer final result and also in terms of gleaning different insights).

    I think the main thing is to understand the basic assumptions and the strengths and weaknesses of each possible approach and then shrug your shoulders and say "meh, it's only an estimate anyway". I like your attempt to average out "house effect", it's not the only way to do it but I certainly couldn't see a rationale to confidently state it didn't make sense.

    What's more important is it's still close pretty much no matter what way you slice it. The 2014 indyref essentially bootstrapped Yes up a long way from it's initial level and its still there. Doesn't mean another indyref will necessarily do exactly the same, but the platform is there.

    At the end of the day despite the awful polling for how Brexit's going, big changes in how well the Government's handling it, Corbyn and May approval ratings, Westminster GE voting intentions etc., in the midst of the absolute political chaos around it the basic Remain/Leave poll is still fundamentally not that very different from the EU referendum result. So does not surprise me that the indyref polling, which is not quite so front and centre, is not showing much movement either. I suspect in both cases it'll be the referendum campaigns (if either happens) where the bigger movements happen.

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  2. Poor nat si fash going no where.. You want independence from your neighbours and then sell Scotland to Jun ker the drunker and Co. You nat sis have lost the plot. Independence means independence.

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    Replies
    1. As usual, it doesn't have one.

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    2. My point of view. State of you!

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    3. All you have are insults and rambling. You don't have anything coherent enough to pass for a point of view.

      Stockpile your cereal.

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  3. Devolution. What kind of independence is that. No country overrules the rest in the EU. Scotland would have the respect shown to us that's denied in the UK.
    A nation not a disrespected and ignored region.
    Let's get on with the referendum ASAP.
    I'm gaun tae start without ye!

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  4. Stalemate? I wish there were a 5%-10% swing either way so it would settle this for a long long time.

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    1. If your primary goal is for this to be settled, then here's what you need to do:

      Realise that even if the indy vote lost 10% in the polls, this won't go away. For this to go away in favour of dependence it would take the indy vote dropping down to <5%.

      Realise that the indy vote is not going to drop down to <5%, ever.

      Realise that the only way this issue is going to go away is when Scotland goes independent.

      Realise that since you want the issue to go away, the only thing you can do to make that happen that doesn't involve you living in lalaland is to campaign and vote for Scotland to be independent.

      ---

      But everyone here knows that you have no interest in logical thought. You're just a better-spoken version of GWC2.

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    2. Writing and speaking!

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    3. Like click, click, click.

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  5. Oh Aye Union2 Cos you dinnae care one wey or the other Eh?.
    My view is when the numbers change it'll be like the fall of the Berlin Wall. Here today gone tomorrow.
    Sledgehammer to the London egos.
    Scotland rejoins the real world.
    Ditto England if they have any sense, and can put aside their love affair wi the Tories.

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    Replies
    1. Prefer to stay in the UK and continue the devolution journey but can’t stand the stubbornness of the polls.

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    2. The "devolution journey" ends with either Scotland going independent New Zealand style, or Scotland being a county of England.

      Which end-point do you want?

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    3. No it doesn’t, how can you say that, how do you know?

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    4. It's kinda obvious if you think about it.

      What stable end-point do you think we'll have that isn't one of those?

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    5. I think you're right. When the UK collapses, it'll be like the fall of the USSR. Apparently, experts knew for a few years that the Soviet empire was on the point of collapse. It's encouraging that experts are (not in the media) predicting the same for the UK empire now.

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    6. Get a grip Todd's. Britain's never never never shall be skave's

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    7. Unless they're Scots, you mean?

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  6. The left leaning side of that No% are going to find the foot of shit the Tories have dumped on Scotland so far is only the foundation layer.

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  7. The Scots have only two choices. Stay in the UNION or Stay in the EU. A referendum in which the Nat sis win will be required for option 2 followed by an application to join the EU which could take years. However if we do have a hard brexit the EU are likely to order Scotland not to trade with RuK. The Nat sis will have to explain which option will be in our economic interest. Mrs May has probably put a good offer to the EU which they no doubt will reject. A hard brexit is likely.

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    Replies
    1. I didn't realise until reading your posts the havoc a diet over the years of Buckfast and White Diamond can wreak. Just as well you have a spell checker.

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    2. Just heading off now. If you don't hear from me soon, have a double Buckfast on me.

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    3. You need to go to Loyds TSB and talk about mental illness because your a nutter.

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    4. Seek professional help, fetish freak. Immediately.

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  8. Back in 1999 support for independence was circa 27pc and over the years up to 2012 it has had peaks and troughs - variable, obviously, due to changes in the political climate but in general settling down again to around the 28 - 30pc mark. Even in the run up to the referendum as late as March and April some polls had it as low as 28 to 29pc. The present 45(ish)pc in support of independence has been one of the longest periods of voter intention stability since the days of the 28pc level. The fundamental problem we have is to convince the population of Scotland that independence is the best option for our future. The associated problems are that we have not yet built a sufficiently coherent proposition or propositions to persuade the population. I say propositions deliberately, for if we are to speculate about possibilities we might as well advance a number of possibilities that are attractive to wider constituencies in the population whether from the left or right - people must be able to feel that they can write that future themselves after independence.

    Another problem we have is that we have little access to mainstream means of spreading the word to particular parts of the population. It is okay to use blogs and social media to engage with the public but these are often those already 'independiestas' and politically engaged but, reaching out one of the most entrenched groups opposed to independence - the elderly - is difficult as they often have no time for hash-tagging or face-booking let alone 'clicking on things'. Regular usage figures for those older than 74 are 38pc with Males at 46.7pc and females at 32.6pc for 65 - 74 year olds usage is around 20pc below the average for ages 18 - 64. We need to find some way to engage with groups that are effectively off-line, still read their newspaper, watch and listen to the BBC for their news and weather. If we can do this - if we can reach out to those who reject independence and offer them attractive possibilities of the future and reduce fear, then I am sure we will be able to push the independence car up and over the hill - all we need is the correct vehicle … and presently they wont let us have one.

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    1. This is perhaps the most accurate analysis comment in internet history. Kudos! Some one should rewrite this up in a place where the SNP LEADERSHip will read it.

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    2. Some good points.

      I was looking on the Wings over Scotland Twitter feed earlier, and noticed that the Conservative Party have started a petition , to ask the SNP to respect the 2 point odd, million voters who voted No in the referendum.

      The comments are quite startling, with many people responding that they were one of that 2 million who voted No, but will be voting Yes next time because they now realise they were lied to,
      or in a lot of the cases, because of Brexit.

      We have all seen the odd person saying on Twitter that they have changed from No to Yes, but I have never saw so many comments like this, in the one single thread.

      If you're a Yes voter, go have a look, it will certainly warm the cockles of your heart.

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    3. Wishfull thinking paddy now go and unfurl your Irish tricoloul for the next fitba season.

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    4. Hi Arlene! Is that you breaking the Sabbath again by tweeting. You are naughty!

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  9. Note the new BBC Scottish channel planned for this Autumn has been put back to next February.
    That'll be London pulling the strings.
    Do we trust the BBC. Is the prince of Wales a Welshman?

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    Replies
    1. That's a relief. One less outlet for British nationalist propaganda.

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    2. Its the strings of Strasbourger's and Frankfurter's that GWC used to pull. Get back to Amsterdam and stop scrounging off the English taxpayer.

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    3. Sounds like fun. Wish I'd been there.

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  10. What you jocks need is a good nuking, two big badboys one for Dundee and one for Glasga, it would remove a lot of detritus and sort you jocks right out, just like it sorted those nips out in 45.

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    Replies
    1. #nukethejocks

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    2. Silvestrina McInerney-SchulzJuly 23, 2018 at 9:52 AM

      I see Arlene and Ross are up bright and early and off their meds again.

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    3. Randy BumgardenerJuly 23, 2018 at 8:59 PM

      Didn't realise you were both that desperate.

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    4. Think you'll find August 6th 1945. Mind you when Frank von Furter let his payload go up GWC's natsis he felt like Hiroshima/Nagasaki was happening all over again.

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  11. Can anybody who's not yet been blocked by Dogfoodboy as him why Scotland is robbed of over £4,000,000,000 in spirit duty every year by HM Treasury, and why that signinficant fiscal transfer is ignored in every single calculation he makes?
    Spirit duty is a tax on production. Scotland produces the majority of UK spirit therefore creates the majority of said tax. Yet HMRC assigns spirit duty on the basis of consumption and therefore poor old Scotland is only given 9% of those tax receipts on our account. Hundreds of Billions more pounds stolen from Scotland over the decades to go along with the oil robbery and corporation tax robbery and all the rest.

    If anybody can get a straight answer from the raving bender I'd like to see it.

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  12. Knickerless welcomes Barclays Bank to Glasgow and the Great British Pound. Given up on her fascist euro ideals!

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    Replies
    1. Your best euro deals was your quota of 50 German extrawurst sausage a week up yer natsis for yer Amsterdam rentboy license.

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    2. Herman Juden FreiJuly 24, 2018 at 1:27 AM

      Jocko wants frankfurter benefits und pomme frites mitt tenents lager subsidy furr selling oot Scotland. Give dem Jocks a six pack of Kolch and dae vill kill demselves and anyone else. Vie vill be die new Shotten grouseshooters und shag yer ugly vummin. Zeig.

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    3. Always fun to watch the freak show bicker with itself.

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  13. James Dornan on RT begging to be ruled by the EU. Nat si subsidy junkies.

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    1. In UK England overrules everybody else.
      In the EU every country has full representation, and no one country has more power than the rest combined.
      Scotland's oil and gas revenues will go to Holyrood when we're a full EU member state.
      Scottish negotiators will obviously get us a better deal than any UK team. The EU will prefer dealing with the Scots.
      The Brits have never got over the loss of Empire. Time they had a reality check.

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    2. The Commission is the new Empire ya tosser.

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    3. Delighted you have the discernment to watch a reliable news channel like RT. I always had you down as a Fox News or BBC kind of girl, so I apologise for thinking you a brainless clown - a judgement partially based on your novelty posts screaming for attention.

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    4. Seems Ralph is an attention seeker and not politically savvy. Although RT has a Russian agenda and I am not a man from Moscow in a hurry.

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    5. Stockpile your cereal.

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    6. 6 months supply secured along with powdered milk and NHS orange juice. The RAF will defend us in their hundreth year. Tally Ho boys.

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    7. No cereal for you.

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    8. The only cereal I ever watched was Z Cars. So shut it!

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    9. Or what, freak?

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    10. Spineless freak ran away again.

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    11. Spineless freak still never told me what would happen if I didn't shut it.
      Gutless Tory toady.

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    12. It can't possibly be taking this long for the gutless troll to figure out what it was going to do if I didn't shut it.

      Or maybe it can...

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    13. Day five. Still no response from the gutless troll.
      It talks a big game and then runs away like all its Tory overlords.

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    14. Day six and still nothing from the Tories' useless idiot.

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  14. 28/7/18 - and still no sign of independence or indyref2 or a yes lead in the polls.

    Time to face up to the likelihood you'll never get over the line - instead spending the rest of your lives locked in a permanent state of impotent rage.

    Tick tock - smell the block ;0)

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