Sunday, June 17, 2018

Sturgeon marches on: new Panelbase poll confirms SNP are on course for gains in any early general election

Today brings word of a new full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase.  In one sense it repeats the recent findings of YouGov (albeit in less dramatic fashion) because it shows the SNP on the up, and on course for gains from both the Conservatives and Labour in any early general election.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Panelbase, 8th-13th June 2018):

SNP 38% (+2)  
Conservatives 27% (-1)
Labour 27% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)

The SNP's lead over the Tories has increased from 8 points to 11 since last year's general election, and their lead over Labour has increased from 10 to 11.  This is obviously a relatively modest change (and less than suggested by YouGov), but given the number of ultra-marginal seats out there, it's enough to potentially make a very significant difference.

The meaningful dissimilarity with the YouGov poll (and this can't easily be explained by margin of error) is that Labour's share of the vote has not dropped back at all, and the Tories haven't made any advance.  Quite the reverse, in fact.  YouGov had Labour slumping from second to third, but Panelbase have Labour moving from third into joint second, courtesy of a slight fall in Tory support.  We'll just have to wait for more information to see which firm is closer to being right - although admittedly that moment may never arrive, because both the Panelbase and YouGov polls were (more or less) conducted prior to the SNP walkout from the House of Commons on Wednesday.  Assuming that was the watershed moment in Scottish politics a lot of people think it might have been, future polls may pick up more recent changes in public opinion that will disguise anything that might have been going on prior to the last few days.

The same problem makes it hard to draw many conclusions from Panelbase's finding on support for independence.  It shows no change at all - but of course any surge in Yes support would have been much more likely to occur after fieldwork concluded in the middle of the week, not before.  (Remember that most respondents to online polls tend to give their answers early in the fieldwork period, so for the most part this poll was probably conducted several days before the SNP walkout.)  The jury is still out, then - we'll have to wait for more up-to-date polls to find out just how big an impact the events of Wednesday had.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 44% (n/c)
No 56% (n/c)

Incidentally, don't be too alarmed to see Yes on a smidgeon below 45%.  Panelbase have of late slotted in at the No-friendly end of the polling spectrum - somewhat ironic, given that for such a long period prior to the first indyref, it was only Panelbase that gave Yes any reason for optimism.

Ever eager to find the most negative possible spin for the SNP, the Sunday Times have placed most emphasis on the Holyrood findings, which are bound to look less encouraging than the Westminster numbers because the SNP are starting from the much higher baseline of 2016.  Curiously, the headline reads "SNP set to miss 2021 seats target for new independence referendum", which ignores the rather obvious point that the SNP have not set any seats target for an independence referendum in 2021, because they've already successfully won a mandate at the election in 2016 for a pre-2021 independence referendum.  Indeed, any suggestion that the pro-independence majority may be lost in 2021 will simply strengthen the already overwhelming argument that the existing mandate for a referendum must be used.

As it happens, though, the poll actually suggests that the pro-independence parties would only very narrowly fall short of the 65 seats required for an absolute majority.  The Sunday Times' projection has the SNP on 56 and the Greens on 7.  So only a couple more seats would be needed, and a small increase in SNP or Green support would do the trick - with the election still three long years away in any case.

Voting intentions for Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 40% (n/c)
Conservatives 28% (n/c)
Labour 24% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)

Voting intentions for Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 36% 
Conservatives 26% 
Labour 23%
Greens 7%
Liberal Democrats 6%

Strangely, this is the first time since the 2016 election that Panelbase have asked for regional list voting intentions, so it's not possible to give percentage changes on the list ballot.  However, the list results are fairly encouraging for the SNP - other polling firms have suggested their list vote has slipped rather lower than 36%.

41 comments:

  1. Mid-term poll showing pro-Scottish MSPs even-stevens with Brit-Nat MSPs. Good finding for pro-Scots. Especially when you take into consideration the ridiculously hostile media environment. They will quite simply run out of steam before polling day.

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  2. So, the Unionist fools will not be?

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  3. Anybody who believes YES is languishing at 44% obviously doesn't get out enough in Scotland. It's clearly been over 50% for some time, despite what these increasingly ludicrous polls from UK vested interests try to say otherwise.

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    1. Would love to believe that but not sure "getting out lots" provides the robust evidential basis required for such a forthright statement. Still, I hope you're right

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    2. 44% seems on the low side. There's a definite upswing even before the Westminster walkout.
      Also the Brountervention would indicate we are over the 50%.
      Certainly feels like it.

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    3. I agree. And I point to a number of recent polls in Union supporting newspapers with up to 10,000 people voting which show YES at around 60%. On top of which there are numerous polls on twitter which show support is way above 45%; in the 70%s. I know these polls are not tested for bias but it seems to me the 'British' supporting' pollsters are way out of line. It is my view that people on the polling panels used would be more likely to be from the upper social groups, more Tory, and more anti-Independence. Are the pollsters using the same old, same old people each time on their panels; are the people signed up to do these polls a true sample; are there enough people from the lower social groups on the panels?

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    4. The people love their Scottish parliament.
      They're jalousing that it will only be secure with full independence.
      The power grab will go down in political history as the midwife of Scottish Statehood. We'll gie ye taking back control!

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    5. Those newspaper polls are self-selecting and completely unreliable. You had plenty of shitey online media polls before Sept 2014 suggesting 60%, 80% Yes. As it turns out, that was accurate, but only in respects to the age groups which use those online media!

      "getting out lots" doesn't work that way. You'd have to ask literally everyone to overcome the lack of weighting(who did you vote for in 2017? 2015? Referendum votes?)

      The only such poll I'd find helpful is one of care homes. It's the one age category we've been told was heavily No and forms much of the union's support base. I've been in the Erskine hospice and it's like a British Empire museum - 3 metre long battleship models, giant WW1 memorial murals, etc...

      And as long as we're sharing anecdotal evidence, how about my mate who's a Yes-Leaver and is increasingly bitter with the SNP in general and Sturgeon in particular? He keeps saying he won't vote in the next Indy referendum as it'd interrupt Brexit.

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    6. I must admit I'm bemused by people like your mate. Independence in Europe has been the SNP's policy since the 1980s. Does he not know that? Even if it wasn't, does he really think Nicola Sturgeon could just ignore a 62% Remain vote?

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    7. Scottish BreexiteerJune 18, 2018 at 9:45 PM

      The million #Scottish people who voted to leave the undemocratic EU have no voice in Holyrood.

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    8. I know these polls are not tested for bias but it seems to me the 'British' supporting' pollsters are way out of line.

      Yeah, the BPC pollsters are out of line with unscientific online polls. I don't think your conclusion that the former must therefore be wrong necessarily follows from that.

      Out of curiosity, did you expect Yes or No to win the last referendum?

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  4. None of the Polls take into Account, Westminster Power-Grab,,And the Fact there has been 10000 New members Will or shoud make a Difference in The Next Polls

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  5. Clause 11 - denial of SP consent can be regarded as SP giving consent. How much more evidence do you need?

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  6. I am anxiously waiting to see a poll done after the walk out.

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  7. It’ll probably be the same - those who support the SNP will think it was the appropriate thing to do whereas those who don’t will think it was an unhelpful stunt.

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    1. Wrong Union2. Many non SNP voters are rightly furious that the Scottish Parliament voted for by 74% is now under attack.
      When Ian Blackford was shown the door every right thinking Scot backed the SNP for telling the Tory bullies that they had crossed a line.
      There is a price to pay for the Tories and the British state.
      The mask has slipped, and crucially in full public view.
      It was the Tories who pulled a stunt, and it backfired spectacularly. See ye at Bannockburn. Same result coming.

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    2. You're right, that is one of the negatives we have to accept if we stay in the UK. But there's no reason why we can't decide not to do so.

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    3. It's not worth arguing with this guy, he's such a firm believer in "democracy" that he thinks that when nine wolves vote to eat a sheep, then the sheep should sit there and let them.

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    4. However, you do get a discussion conducted with dignity and courtesy out of him. I have to respect that even when I rarely agree with him.

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    5. 'Dignity and courtesy' from Union2.0 while knowingly advancing an undemocratic colonial agenda? I'd say that was more dangerous and morally bankrupt than anything GWC2 comes out with.
      braco

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    6. I see your point.

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    7. The Nat sis are bankrupt of any ideas. They lie about losing powers they do not want. .The Nat sis know Brexit will happen but have no contribution to make except to say they want to be dominated by Brussels. A million Scots voted to leave in a UK wide referendum yet the Nat si fascists say they speak for all Scots.

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  8. Is there any rule that all opinion polls taken must be published? If I were a unionist commissioning a poll, and it came up with a result not to my liking, I might not be keen to publish it. I just wonder if there may have been unpublished/suppressed polls showing more support for independence.

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    1. Political parties and campaigns are obviously highly selective about which polls they publish. Most newspapers who spend money on a poll will generally publish it regardless of the results, but there are exceptions - I seem to dimly recall there was a case last year when a unionist newspaper (possibly the Express or the Mail?) withheld results that were favourable for either the SNP or independence.

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    2. In the absence of polls we can see the 10,000 new SNP members as a rough guide to how the nation is reacting to the power grab.
      It's a power grab as far as the people can see.
      It's them that gets tae vote after all. Will Labour come tae the Tories rescue again.
      They have in Wales.
      Time for 'Who's side are you on'.

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  9. The nat sis are lying there has been no power grab. The Nat sis have to produce documentary evidence which is available.

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    1. Vote in Westminster means the Sewell convention has been overridden. EnglandUK can Overrule any power presently within the competence of the Scottish Parliament. This is nae Union.
      Exit stage left.

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    2. Rubbish and you nat sis know it. You are English haters and you want in with Brussels to help them win World war 2. Fascists one and all.

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  10. basically indyref polling is totally static. hasn't changed significantly either way since 2014. Doubt it will until a vote is called.

    I thought as older voters die off, Yes would creep up a bit more.. possibly have by 1% or so.

    It's disappointing even after brexit there is no majority in favour of yes. Not one.

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  11. Nae enthusiasm for NO. Nae demos in favour of London rule.
    Nae marches for the glorious Union.
    Nae proud boasts about how devolution allows Scots to be different while we're guaranteed EU membership because of being part of the UK, tho not equal partners with England. Glad our unelected Sec of State cleared that up.

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    1. Poor Jocko Scotland is out of the EU soon. It would take you years to have a referendum to sell out Scotland to your EU Masters and a hard border with your hated English. Do you really think your EU Masters will make up the trade deficit with your neighbour.

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    2. Dolly Dot still dotting away. Playing attention to me again.

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    3. Dolly's juicing up nicely. Her batcave's a bit whiffy.

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  12. Content here answers the halfwit's interminable demands for detail. Next time it can do its own bloody homework.

    https://munguin.wordpress.com/2018/06/19/remember-the-tories-didnt-want-devolution/

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