Friday, June 2, 2017

Is it cos she is TYRANNICAL? Theresa rocked as Ipsos-Mori poll suggests she could LOSE HER MAJORITY

You know the drill by now, folks.

*puts on Canadian accent*

It's another terrrrr-ible afternoon for the Conservative party.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Ipsos-Mori) :

Conservatives 45% (-4)
Labour 40% (+6)
Liberal Democrats 7% (n/c)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 3% (-1)
Greens 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (n/c)

As soon as they published this poll, Ipsos-Mori came under fire from commentators (and indeed from other pollsters such as ICM's Martin Boon) for producing the implausibility of a Labour vote share that isn't far off what Tony Blair achieved in his landslides of 1997 and 2001.  But it should be noted that it's happened in spite of Ipsos-Mori introducing a stricter turnout filter for this poll, which predictably works in the Tories' favour.  Without that, the swing would be even more extreme and the Tory lead would be down to just 3 points.  The other more general point is that the Lib Dems were much, much stronger in 1997 and 2001, which is a potentially reasonable explanation for Labour now having a vote share comparable to that period, even though their current leadership does not command the same public confidence that Blair's team did.

A familiar alibi for the Tories whenever they get a bad poll is that leadership ratings are often more predictive of election results than headline voting intentions are.  There's some truth in that, which is why they must be horrified that Jeremy Corbyn has almost caught up with the Prime Minister in net satisfaction ratings.  We're very used to Theresa May having a negative rating in Scotland, but this is the first time it's happened across Britain as a whole - 43% of respondents are satisfied with her, and 50% are dissatisfied.  Corbyn's ratings are almost identical - 39% satisfied, 50% dissatisfied.  It's true that May does better when respondents are asked to make a straight choice between the two leaders, but even on that measure her lead has dropped catastrophically since April (from 38 points to 15).

The combined 3% vote share for the SNP and Plaid doesn't look great, but as the same firm has only just produced a full-scale Scottish poll giving the SNP a massive 18% lead over both the Tories and Labour, we probably shouldn't be too alarmed.  The Britain-wide sample was 1046, so the Scottish subsample will have been less than 100 even before the turnout filter was applied.

As long-term readers of this blog will remember from the independence referendum, Ipsos-Mori always publish two sets of voting intention numbers side-by-side - the headline numbers filtered by turnout, and numbers without the turnout filter applied.  On the latter measure, this poll is truly jaw-dropping.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Ipsos-Mori, without turnout filter) :

Labour 43% (+6)
Conservatives 40% (-6)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 3% (-1)
UKIP 3% (+1)
Greens 1% (-1)

I suspect a number of politicians on the left will be starting to think about the potential virtues of Australian-style compulsory voting.  If we had it for this election, we'd currently be talking about the probability of a hung parliament, rather than the vague chance that it might just about happen.

27 comments:

  1. YouGov's seat projections have the SNP on 48 seats, up 1 from yesterday. Taking a large pinch of salt as always:

    -Orkney and Shetland is now being shown as a toss up with the Lib Dems slightly ahead
    -Ochil and South Perthshire is a toss up with Tories slightly ahead
    -East Renfrewshire and Moray are leaning Tory
    -Labour look fairly close in Glasgow Southwest
    -Tories are fair close in Banff and Buchan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Labour look fairly close in Glasgow Southwest" ?

      Utter bollocks.

      Delete
    2. These samples will have huge variation, so take it all with a pinch of salt.

      Delete
  2. UKIP on 2%
    lol

    Pull the other one!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BBC and Sky etc will still have them on telly every show.cause, you know...

      Delete
  3. Folks, we're nearing the point where GWC2 has a cry and a gin before he spouts. So have sympathy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Been lovebombing him with the Beatles for weeks following your inspiration, my friend. It's made things so much more mellow around here.

      Delete
    2. No it hasn't. Your lovebombing is just as annoying.

      Delete
    3. This isn't for us, Juteman. A fellow human being needs us and we can't let him down. So keep it up, you goddamn Anonymous hero you :)

      Delete
    4. I think it's great. It seems to be reducing the need for that javascript filter a lot. Very happy not to see its contribution

      Delete
    5. GWC's just a troll whose interest in politics doesn't extend much beyond posting gibberish on here. I'm more worried about Aldo. He really thought Theresa is a strong, serious figure whose government is respected and feared by European leaders. The last few weeks must have been really rough on him. I hope he lets us know he's ok. :(

      Delete
  4. I am partial tae a gin and masonic however English Kent wine is my normal tipple. Not only is it nice but I feel patriotic when gulping it doon.
    Vote Labour and get rid of the Tories and their privatising pals the Tartan Tory Nat si con mob.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
    2. dementia writ large

      Delete
  5. GWC2, you should try gin and arsenic. It will improve your life.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And old bootlace! The problem with you Nat sis is you are like the Nazis and in denial of your right wing policies.You are rascist anti English and cannot come clean and admit it. Up yer kilts Jock fascists.

      Delete
    2. With hair on it. You are hate peddlers Nat si bhoy. Your Tory hate campaign is wearing thin, you are Tartan Tories. The punters are seing through you scum. Up yer kilt.

      Delete
    3. The poster above is a far-right racist Neo-Nazi sockpuppetJune 3, 2017 at 2:45 AM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    4. I'm starting to wonder.... I'd thought that love was the answer, but maybe, just maybe, some anti-psychotics wouldn't go amiss either. The problem, of course, is that we don't know a helluva lot about him, or his history, or where he falls on the spectrum. He could be a complete nobody for all we know, or alternatively, he could be the next DaVince. He could be a harmless wet-socked carrier-bag-dragging reject with creased jeans and spectacular bowels, or he could be Dr Robotnik's mum, who knows. He could even be simply a confused old person presenting with an extreme point-and-hate stereotype. Or, just as likely, he could be a relative youngster, on day release from Carstairs. He could be anybody. He could even - and this is the most likely explanation IMHO - just be going though a transitional period and feels a bit lashy-outy about it although that would represent an excessively long trip through DABDA now that I think about it. Anyway, who knows indeed. All I know is he needs our understanding. So, for the time being at least, let's keep topping up his soup bowl of life with our tasty collective love-broth in the hope that he will then gobble it all up if he so chooses but I bet he's tempted. And also, if anyone has a few trammies going begging....

      Delete
  6. ALISTAIR Campbell just endorsed corbyn? I think this 2 party race will help snp. Only 8% planning tactical voting in scotland.plus, you know , in their hearts, most labor folks in england could give a flying duck about what happens in scotland as long as you wear the same military uniforms and keep them supplies with cheap whiskey. Sorry for spelling errors!

    ReplyDelete
  7. A few weeks back James talked about the fact that the BBC were very slow to publish national vote shares for the Scottish local government elections. Well, they must have broken some kind of record, cos they've still not published the. Does anybody know what the final 1st pref vote shares were?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Council control according to COSLA:

    Please note the following information is being updated as soon as possible to reflect the results of the Scottish Local Government elections held on 4 May 2017.



    Councilsort icon Political control
    Aberdeen City Council CON, LAB, IND Coalition
    Aberdeenshire Council CON, SLD, IND Coalition
    Angus Council IND, CON, SLD Coalition
    Argyll and Bute Council CON, SLD, IND Coalition
    City of Edinburgh Council Unavailable
    Clackmannanshire Council SNP Minority
    Comhairle nan Eilean Siar IND
    Dumfries and Galloway Council LAB, SNP Coalition
    Dundee City Council SNP, IND Coalition
    East Ayrshire Council SNP Minority
    East Dunbartonshire Council SNP Minority
    East Lothian Council LAB Minority
    East Renfrewshire Council SNP, IND, LAB Coalition
    Falkirk Council SNP Minority
    Fife Council SNP, LAB Joint Leadership
    Glasgow City Council SNP Minority
    Highland Council IND, SLD, LAB Coalition
    Inverclyde Council LAB minority
    Midlothian Council LAB Minority
    Moray Council IND, CON Coalition
    North Ayrshire Council LAB Minority
    North Lanarkshire Council LAB Minority
    Orkney Islands Council IND
    Perth and Kinross Council CON, SLD, IND Coalition
    Renfrewshire Council SNP Minority
    Scottish Borders Council CON, IND Coalition
    Shetland Islands Council IND
    South Ayrshire Council SNP, LAB, IND Partnership Working Arrangement
    South Lanarkshire Council SNP Minority
    Stirling Council SNP, LAB Coalition
    West Dunbartonshire Council SNP, IND Coalition
    West Lothian Council Labour Minority

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you think that the collapse in support for Terry Maybot was some kind of epiphany?

      Delete
    2. Over twa million voted fur ra Union. Jock fascists the minority.

      Delete
    3. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  9. Less chat, more polling analysis!

    If you look at the poll of polls on Prydain elects the rise in conservative support is an exact mirror or the collapse in ukip share. Right up until the election was called. Then two things happened.

    Libdem vote collapsed even further.

    ukip nosedived and labour started to increase with a drop in conservative share and lead.

    Showing that the threat of ukip to labour has receded as well as their tories going home.

    Strange how all the political journalists, being experts in their field, never pointed out that this was even the remotest possibility.

    ReplyDelete